Professional Judgement in Hydrogeology

A “Blink” Test

Dave Hart – Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey

Kallina Dunkle – Austin Peay State University

Blink: The Power of Thinking

Without Thinking

Book by Malcolm Gladwell

Discusses “first impression” processes

When and in what context they are useful

We often feel this in science.

Data doesn’t seem correct

Figure looks wrong

or

It all makes sense and works together.

Gladwell’s Example – Getty Kouros Statue sold to Getty Museum

for $10M

Lots of documentation w/ 14

month inspection

Expert reactions-post

purchase

“fresh looking”,

fingernails seemed wrong,

felt “intuitive repulsion”

Today thought to be a

forgery.

Getty Museum

Kouros Statues represented

Greek ideals of male beauty.

Hypothesis – We have similar “snap”

judgements and reactions in geosciences

Investigate our collective

“snap” judgement. Are we consistent in our judgement?

Do experience and training make

much difference?

Local versus universal knowledge (old

timer vs Stackoverflow)

Lots of pitfalls for this type of

question. This is just a start

Looking for improvements

Getty Museum

Kouros Statues represented

Greek ideals of male beauty.

Hooyer, et al.

(2008)

Location

3-D Well Construction Reports

Display

RockworksTM v. 2006

Area (~ 20 miles x ~15 miles)

2200 WCRs

Created Training Images to

represent sediment distributions

Feyen & Caers (2005)

Reference field

Variogram model

Training image model

Hard & Soft Data

TIGenerator Parameters

Shape

Orientation

Dimensions

Length, width, thickness

Amplitude, wavelength

Radii

Proportion

Training Image Selection

80 TI’s Created 12 run with snesim algorithm

Selection basis: Visual comparison with WCRs

Geologic plausibility

TI-1

TI-2

TI-3

TI-4

TI-5

TI-6

TI-7

TI-8

Table of images

1 2 3 4

5 6 7 8

Questions?