prof. dr. pavel kabat - iiasa · prof. dr. pavel kabat [email protected] director general and chief...
TRANSCRIPT
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Water Challenge for 21st Century: at a Crossroads ??
Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat [email protected]
Director General and Chief Executive Officer
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Austria
Professor of Earth System Science
Wageningen University, the Netherlands
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One Blue Planet…..
glaciers, snow & permafrost 1.72%
ground water 0.75%
lakes, swamps & rivers 0.1%
Oceans 97.5%
In 21stC:
• Is past guide to future – ‘Stationarity’?
• Can water information remain ‘Secret’?
• Is fresh water ‘Sovereign’?
• Is water fixed asset, or ‘flux’?
USG
S
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Most Important Focus of World Leaders
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Water Crisis…?
…there is some urgency to deal with the
problems However not all noses are in the same direction
yet…
And perceptions of risks and urgency may differ
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Wat
er U
se in
km
^3 p
er y
ear
AgricultureIndustryHouseholdsReservoiresTotal
Worldwide Water Use by Sector
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Worldwide Water Use by Region
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
EuropeNorth AmericaAfricaAsiaSouth AmericaAustralia& Pacific
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The current situation
1 billion people without access to safe drinking water
1.4 billion people in watersheds with < 1000m3/capita/year
2.4 billion people with poor sanitation
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• Population still growing, adding 2 billion more by 2050
• Food production requirements potentially 70% greater by 2050
• 20% of the world’s population has no access to electricity
– Industrial and energy water uses exceed agriculture in high-income
countries.
• Ecosystems?
Water: Global Challenges Increasing and Competing Demands
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1900 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2010 2025
Reservoirs
Municipal Use
Industrial Use
Agricultural Use
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Water Security: local risks…..
Destructive • Flood
• India/Bangladesh: 2007 monsoon 75m
• Pakistan: 2010 20m; 2011/12
• Brisbane/Australia, Thailand: 2011
• Drought • Horn of Africa 2010-11
• Syria 2006-11
• Russia 2010 Abstract: ‘…investigate ….irrigating crops in arid
environments with CO2 rather than water…’
Productive
• WSS: 800m without improved
water, 2.6bn without
sanitation; future cities?
• Food: 1bn malnutrition 30m
child deaths/yr • Power: renewable HEP unexploited
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Water Security: ‘international’ waters risks…..
• growing pressures – China: 17 neighbours,
110 rivers & lakes – Africa 2050: 2.5bn people,
60 international basins, increasing ‘complexity’
• limited knowledge, capacity, uncertainty misperception, tension, fear – Eg GBM, Mekong, Nile,
Euphrates
• ‘Northern’ science adequacy? – GCMs – economic models
塔里木
河
印度
河 珠
江
绥芬河 鸭
绿江
图们江
黑龙江
雅怒藏布江-
布拉马普特拉河
在全球个大洲中,亚洲国际河流分布最为集中,其国际河流面积占了亚洲陆地面积的65%
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Bangladesh
© Google Earth
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Ganges
Brahmaputra
Meghna
GBM BASINS The GBM Basins drain 1.72 Mi
km2 area
93% of the area outside
Bangladesh
75-80% of flow in 5 months of
monsoon
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0 SLR
32 cm SLR
88 cm SLR
Impact of SLR on Salinity Intrusion
Hiron Point
9 km
90 km
Mongla
Khulna
Movement of 5 ppt Salinity line
Source: IWM
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Water Security: global spillover risks
• Local water shocks global risks to business & economies – eg Thai floods: $45bn
• Local water shocks global
political risks – eg Syria drought, Russia
drought, Pakistan flood
• Transboundary waters international political risks – South Asia rivers, SARCC trade – Mekong, China – Tigris-Euphrates
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Water security in changing ‘climates’..
• but crisis now for 3 billion people… adaptation now is key to future
• mitigation mostly about energy; adaptation mostly about water
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3. Water Security: big policy
questions & science challenges
• Closing divided world gap? leapfrogs, game-changers
• Chasing water security in changing ‘climates’? Innovation 3 ‘INs’: • Information (GPG)
• Institutions
• Infrastructure
• Resolving 21stC $trillion challenges? • ensuring water services, food & energy for 9-11bn (7-8bn in cities)
• managing (increasing) water-related shocks & spillovers
• Sustaining our one Blue Planet? • Conserving <1% liquid & fresh (0.1% surface, liquid, fresh)
• Understanding/managing risks of 4o future on water flux??
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Over-reliance on groundwater:
Total groundwater withdrawal (all sectors)
in % of total (surface and ground) water withdrawals
Global total groundwater withdrawal: 1522 km3/yr from total 4331 km3/yr
fg_tot = 35%
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Is the hydrological cycle
changing…?
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What should be changing ?
• Precipitation?
• Evaporation?
• Runoff?
• Storage?
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Smoothed annual anomalies for precipitation (%) over land from 1900 to 2005; other regions are dominated by variability.
Land precipitation is changing significantly over broad areas
Increases
Decreases
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What should be changing ?
• Precipitation?
• Evaporation?
• Runoff?
• Storage?
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1950
Analysis by
Munich Re
Data:
U.N.
Population
Division
World Cities exceeding 5 million residents
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2015
Analysis by Munich
Re
Data:
U.N. Population
Division
World Cities exceeding 5 million residents
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Runoff
Discharge Precipitation
urbanized area
rural area
Time
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Vulnerability projections
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What should be changing ?
• Precipitation?
• Evaporation?
• Runoff?
• Storage?
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Global Reservoir Database Location (lat./lon.), Storage capacity, Area of water surface,
Purpose of dam, Year of construction, …
13,382dams,
Visual courtesy of Kuni Takeuchi
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How to make a real progress in
addressing water –as one of the
most pressing issues of our
sustainable future ?
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Trans-sectoral and multi-
disciplinary systems thinking
in water…..
“nexus approach”
“systems approach”
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IPCC 4AR WG II
ALL WATER RELATED
(WATER DEPENDENT)
SECTORS
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Water - Energy – Environment – Health
Nexus
In the U.S. and Europe, 91% and 78% electricity is
currently produced by thermoelectric (nuclear and
fossil fueled) power plants, which require water
resources for cooling.
We found a summer average decrease in capacity of
power plants with 6.3-19% in Europe and 4.4-16% in
the Southeastern U.S. depending on cooling system
type and climate scenario for 2031-2060.
V.d. Vliet, Kabat et al, 2012, Nature Climate Change
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Projected future changes in river
discharge Future period 2071-2100 relative to control period 1971-2000
Introduction – Modeling approach – Results – Conclusions
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Future changes in discharge and water temperatures
Columbia (Anatone) Rhine (Koblenz) Mekong (Chiang Saen)
Wat
er t
emper
ature
(°C
) 25°C – WHO and water quality standard
21°C - salmon
tolerance
temperature 23°C – cooling
water limit
Introduction – Modeling approach – Results – Conclusions
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Water – Climate – Poverty – Equity
Nexus
Kenya: extreme rainfall variability around mean
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
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-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
Years
Real
GD
P g
ro
wth
(%
)
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Varia
bil
ity i
n R
ain
fall
(M
ete
r)
Real GDP grow th (%)
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe
rainfall affects growth….
the case of Zimbabwe
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43 746
1,287 1,406
2,486 3,255
4,729
6,150
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Eth
iop
ia
So
uth
Afr
ica
Th
aila
nd
La
os
Ch
ina
Bra
zil
Au
str
alia
No
rth
Am
erica
Water storage per person (m3)
Water – Climate - Poverty – Equity - Nexus
Infrastructure gap in water storage
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Country Additional
Storage needed
per person
(m3)
Storage
investments
required per
person
(US$)
Storage
Investments
Required
(US$ Billion)
Period needed at 5%
current GDP
investment per year
(no pop. inc.)
(Years)
Lesotho 751 939 1.7 44
Namibia 542 678 1.3 8
Nigeria 402 503 67.3 32
Ethiopia 555 694 46.2 144
Kenya 307 384 12.1 24
Tanzania 610 763 27.4 60
Uganda 511 639 17.9 58
Burkina Faso 152 190 2.5 22
Senegal 683 854 9.9 40
Algeria 239 299 9.8 4
Morocco 128 160 5.1 4
The cost of water security
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Water: Management Challenges • Water management must intensify.
• Managing the water sector alone is no longer enough
– Water integrates across scales and sectors, which all use and
influence increasingly scarce water resources.
• Water management is risk based, but how does risk change?
– Large uncertainties
• Data
• Scenarios
• Models
– No stationarity
• More robust,
flexible solutions
required
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Adaptation (autonomous)
Adaptation (with
investments)
x1
Climate parameter (e.g. rainfall)
Fre
qu
ency
Extremen Extremen
Drought risk
Flood risk
“Acceptable risk”
“Acceptable risk”
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Adaptation (autonomous)
Adapation (with investments)
x1
Climate parameter (e.g.rainfall)
Fre
qu
ency
P1 P2
x2
Climate Change
“Acceptable
risk”
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Water Futures & Solutions WFaS Supporting Innovative Solutions through
Integrative Water Futures Analysis
• 2013 start-up with IIASA venture capital
• 1st phase: existing tools & datasets fast-track results
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4. WFaS Research Question
What water-related policies & practices can be
implemented now that will be robust at
improving human well-being through water
security across a wide range of possible
futures & associated uncertainties?
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WFaS Coalition Building
Governing Board
WaterFutures4
the World
Sector Actors
Group
Project Team
Secretariat
Pro
ject Directo
r
External experts
Scenario Focus
Group
Science
Coalition Stakeholder
Coalition
Sponsor
Coalition
Three major coalitions Organized into the following groups
Initiative includes a major stakeholder consultation component, to inform and guide the science but also to test and refine policy and business outcomes;
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WFaS Coalition Building
Science
Coalition Stakeholder
Coalition
Sponsor
Coalition
Three major coalitions
Sample of Institutions Involved Institute Country
CEH UK
CESR/Kassel Germany
CUNY USA
CSIRO Australia
IFPRI USA
JRC Italy
MIT USA
NIES Japan
NIH/IRMA/CWRDM India
NVE Norway
Oxford UK
PBL Netherlands
PIK Germany
Utrecht Univ. Netherlands
Wageningen Netherlands
WRC South Africa
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WFaS Coalition Building
ensuring consistency & usefulness of outputs
Three major coalitions
Sample of SFG member institutions Institute Country
Bibliotheca Alexandrina Egypt
Climate Grp Greater
China
China
Conagua Mexico
CSIRO Australia
Federal Secretary Pakistan
Gen. Council of Ag. Dev. Morocco
ICID China
Irrigation Dept. Sri Lanka
IUCN Pakistan
IWA
LIGHT Brazil
Nat’l Planning Comm. South Africa
OSTP USA
Planning Commission India
UNESCO
WWFJ Bangladesh
Science
Coalition Stakeholder
Coalition
Sponsor
Coalition
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VISION…..
If one does not know
to which port one is
sailing, no wind is
favorable
Seneca (c. 4 BC-AD 65)
Photo: David McGrath
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Water challenge: not a threat but opportunities….
(innovation, business, economy, social innovations)