integrated science and systems approaches in support of global transitions prof dr pavel kabat iiasa...
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Integrated Science and Systems Approaches in Support of Global Transitions
Prof Dr Pavel Kabat IIASA Director/CEO
MAJOR GLOBAL
CHALLENGES
MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES
FOOD
FOOD• 925 million people were undernourished
in 2010 (FAO)• By 2030, the world’s population will have
increased by one billion (IIASA)• Agriculture accounts for 70% of
freshwater withdrawals (UN Water)
MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES
WATER
WATER• 884 million people have inadequate
access to safe freshwater (WHO & UNICEF)
• Water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century (FAO & UN-Water)
• Hydropower supplies about 20% of the world’s electricity (ICOLD)
MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES
ENERGY
ENERGY• 2.5 billion people are without access to
modern energy (IIASA/GEA) • World primary energy demand expected to
increase by 36% between 2008 & 2035 (IEA)• Energy production and consumption
contributes over 80% of global GHG emissions (IIASA)
MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE• Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank
among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). (IPCC)
• Average temperatures predicted to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C by 2100 (IPCC)
• 70 million Africans could suffer from devastating floods as a result of climate change (IPCC)
MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES
POVERTY & EQUITY
POVERTY & EQUITY• Over 24,000 children die each day due to
poverty (UNICEF)• 80% of humanity lives on less than $10 a
day (World Bank)• “Hunger is a cause of poverty, not just a
consequence of it.” (FAO)
INEXTRICABLY LINKED
Energy & Climate Change
Poverty & Equity
Food & Water
IIASA’S APPROACH
RESEARCHING GLOBAL CHALLENGES
• Integrated• Interdisciplinary• International • Independent• Solution-oriented• Long term• Trade offs
} = Systems Analysis
ADVANCED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS:
• PAST SUCCESSES• Dynamic Systems• Multi-criteria decision
analysis • Adaptive dynamics theory• Game theory• Agent-based modeling• Stochastic optimization
• NEW RESEARCH• Advances in Modeling
Dynamic Systems• Extreme events, Systemic
Risks and Robust Solutions• Integrated Modeling and
Decision Support• Advanced Systems
Analysis Forum
IIASA helps to put the puzzle together
NOBEL PRIZE WINNERSProfessor Tjalling Koopmansand Professor Leonid Kantorovich Nobel Prize in Economics (1975)
NOBEL PRIZE WINNERSProfessor Paul CrutzenNobel Prize for Chemistry (1995)
NOBEL PRIZE WINNERSProfessor Thomas C. SchellingNobel Prize for Economics (2005)
NOBEL PRIZE WINNERSIntergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change
Nobel Peace Prize (2007)
YOUNG SCIENTISTS SUMMER PROGRAM
INTERDISCIPLINARY
35%
37%
28%
Natural Scientists & EngineersSocial ScientistsMathematicians and others
INTERNATIONAL • PARTNERS• IIASA collaborates with almost 300 institutions
from nearly 40 countries
IIASA’S MEMBER
COUNTRIES
HOME OF IIASA SINCE 1972
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS
RESEARCH STRATEGY
INTEGRATION: AREAS & PROGRAMSResearch Programs Energy &
Climate Change
Food & Water
Poverty & Equity
Problem-oriented Programs
Energy
Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse GasesEcosystems Services and Management
Water
Evolution and Ecology
Risk, Policy & Vulnerability
Drivers of Global Transformations
World Population
Transitions to New Technologies
Policy and Systems Analysis
Advanced Systems Analysis
Policy & Governance
ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTSEnergy and Climate Change
Highly Published
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Tota
l Glo
bal P
olic
y Co
sts (
2010
-203
0)
CC PH
ES
CC PH
ES
CC PH
ES
CC PH
ES
All objectives fulfilled at Stringent level
At least one objective fulfilled at Intermediate level
At least one objective fulfilled at Weak level
Policy Prioritization Framework
CC – Climate ChangePH – Pollution & HealthES – Energy Security
Synergies of Multiple Energy Objectives
Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point
Only ClimateOnly PollutionOnly Energy Security
All Three Objectives
Integrated Climate-Pollution-Security Policies
“Single minded” approachesfor multiple challenges
Source: Shindell et al., Science (2012) 335 no. 6065; p. 183-189
Reference scenario IEA World Energy Outlook 2009
CO2 measures
IEA 450 ppm scenario 2009
Near-term measures IIASA set of 16 measures for CH4 and black carbon
CO2 + Near-term measures
GAINS identified 16 key air quality measures that, together with CO2 mitigation, increase chances to stay below the 2º target
Global temperature 1900-2070
These 16 measures are‒ win (for air quality),‒ win (for near-term climate change)‒ win (for economic development).
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Carbon payments for forest conservation would dramatically reduce species extinctions
Changes in forest cover over the twenty-first century, within presumed REDD-eligible regions
Between 10 and 25% of 4,514 forest-dependent mammal and amphibian species would become extinct
World – Historic Primary Energy Transitions(changeover time Δt: 80-130 years)
World Primary Energy Substitution
0
25
50
75
100
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025
Perc
en
t in
Pri
mary
En
erg
y
traditional biomass
coal
modern fuels:oil, gas,electricity
World Primary Energy Substitution
0
25
50
75
100
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025
Perc
en
t in
Pri
mary
En
erg
y
traditional biomass
coal
modern fuels:oil, gas,electricity
Begin of energy policy Focus: Δt’s >2000 yrs
Source: GEA KM24, 2012
Δt -130 yrs
Δt -80 yrs
Δt +90 yrs
Δt +130 yrs
The Global Energy Assessment
(GEA)
ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE:BUILDING ON PAST SUCCESSES
1976 1981 1994 2000
RAINS helps cut
sulfur dioxide
2010
MESSAGE has helped
over 80 countries
with energy planning
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Microchip
Commercialaviation
TelevisionVacuum
tubeGasolineengine
Electricmotor
Steam engine
Nuclearenergy
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: GEA
Global Primary EnergyEfficiency
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Microchip
Commercialaviation
TelevisionVacuum
tubeGasolineengine
Electricmotor
Steam engine
Nuclearenergy
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: GEA
Global Primary EnergyEfficiency
FOOD & WATER
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTSFood and Water
Models, Data & Scenarios
Ratio of Actual (year 2000) to Potential (GAEZ high input level) Cereal Output
New web tool to improve accuracy of global land cover maps
www.geo-wiki.org
A New Explanation of Biodiversity
World Water Scenarios
SCIENTIFIC OUTPUT 2010, 2011, 2012 (to June)
2010 2011 2012
Peer-reviewed journal articles according to SCOPUS
144 156 90
Citations of IIASA publications according to SCOPUS
4090 5205 2308
PUBLICATIONS & CITATIONS
H-INDEX
72This h-index measures the productivity and impact of the 1858 journal articles by IIASA authors in the SCOPUS database of peer-reviewed literature. Of these journal articles, 72 articles have been cited more than 72 times.
RESEARCH INTO
POLICY
RESEARCH INTO POLICY
GAINS policy applications
Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution1994 Second Sulphur Protocol1999 Gothenburg Multi-pollutant/multi-effect
Protocol2012 Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol
European Union1999 National Emission Ceilings Directive2004 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution2010 Energy & Climate package, etc.2013 Revision of the Thematic Strategy
Further analyses for UNFCCC, Arctic Council, UNEP, Chinese government
GEA LAUNCH AT RIO+20
IIASA AS THE EXPERT ADVISOR
• IIASA researchers take part in 60 advisory boards and steering committees, including:– UN Secretary General Technical Group on Sustainable
Energy for All– Advisory Council of the German Government on Global
Change (WBGU)– Scientific Steering Group of the UNEP Black Carbon
Assessment– UN World Water Scenarios– UN Food and Agriculture Organization Land and Water
Division
GROWING INTEREST IN IIASA - PRESIDENTS
H.E. DR. HEINZ FISCHER H.E. DR. VÁCLAV KLAUS
GROWING INTEREST IN IIASA - MINISTERS
H.E. DR. KARLHEINZ TÖCHTERLE
H.E. DR. GUSTI MUHAMMAD HATTA
GROWING INTEREST IN IIASA - AMBASSADORSH.E. Ambassador Jingye Cheng H.E. Ambassador Shigeo Iwatani
H.E. Ambassador Ana Martinho H.E. Ambassador I Gusti Agung Wesaka Puja
..and welcome soon in IIASA...!
