principales riesgos de las economÍas avanzadas y emergentes · 2019-08-26 · principales riesgos...
TRANSCRIPT
PRINCIPALES RIESGOS DE LAS
ECONOMÍAS AVANZADAS Y
EMERGENTES
Mikel Aguirre,
Head of Political and Single Risk de Coface en España y
Portugal
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COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
UN BUEN CRECIMIENTO GLOBAL NO DEBE OCULTAR UN AUMENTO DE RIESGOS Y VULNERABILIDADES
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
Fuente: World Economic Situation. Prospects. 2019 United Nations
EL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO SE MANTIENE FIRME PERO PUEDE QUE HAYA ALCANZADO EL PUNTO MÁS ALTO
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
INDUSTRIA EN LA EUROZONA: EL FIN DE UN LARGO CICLO DE EXPANSIÓN
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Positive Growth Industrial Production (year on year % change)
60 months22 months56 months27 months30 months25 months
Sourc
es:
Euro
sta
t, C
ofa
ce
Eurozone: Industrial Production
(year on year % change)
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 6
ALEMANIA
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19
Germany: Industrial Production and New Orders (YOY in %)
New Orders
IndustrialProduction
Manufacturing
Source: Destatis, Datastream, Coface
9,0
9,5
10,0
10,5
11,0
11,5
3,0
3,2
3,4
3,6
3,8
4,0
4,2
4,4
4,6
4,8
Ja
n-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Ja
n-1
9
Germany: Consumers are happy
Unemployment Rate (lhs)
Consumer Confidence (rhs)
Source: ILO, Gfk, Datastream, Coface
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
FRANCIA: ENFOCANDO SU EXPORTACIÓN EN PAÍSES EMERGENTES CON INCREMENTO DEL CONSUMO
Sources: World Bank, INSEE, Coface
Brazil
China
Czech R.
Egypt
India
Korea
Mexico
Philippines
Russia
SaudiArabia
Turkey
0
20
40
60
80
100
30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Ex
po
rts
(as
a %
of
GD
P)
Households consumption (as % of GDP)SSSS
Demand for France's exports
SSSS
Demand for France's exports
SSSS
Demand for France's exports
SSSS
Poland
South Af.
Hungary
Thailand
Malaysia
Emerging Markets: Households consumption, exports and demand for French exports
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
ITALIA: LA INESTABILIDAD POLÍTICA AFECTARÁ A LAS EMPRESAS, PRINCIPALEMENTE A LAS PYMES
Impact on the ROE (%) of SMEs resulting from
higher average cost of debt
Coface Sector Risk Assessments Sector Italy
Agri-food
Automotive
Chemical
Construction
Energy
ICT
Metals
Paper
Pharmaceutical
Retail
Textile Clothing
Transport
Wood
Sourc
e:
Cofa
ce
Bp:
basis
poin
ts
Sourc
es:
Cerv
ed,
Cofa
ce
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 bp 100 bp 300 bp 500 bp
SMEs
Small
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 bp 100 bp 300 bp 500 bp
SMEs
Small
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 bp 100 bp 300 bp 500 bp
SMEs
Small
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
EUROPA: MÁS INSOLVENCIAS EMPRESARIALES EN 2019
-10%-10%
-6%
-3%
-1% -1%
1%1,2%1% 1%2,4%3% 3%
4% 4% 5% 5% 5%6% 6% 6%6,5%7% 7% 8%
8% 9% 9% 9%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%P
ort
ug
al
Fin
lan
d
Ice
lan
d
Neth
erl
an
ds
Serb
ia
Germ
an
y
Fra
nce
Eu
ro a
rea
No
rwa
y
Be
lgiu
m
We
st.
Eu
rop
e
Latv
ia
Ukra
ine
Den
mark
Cze
ch
Rep
.
Slo
va
kia
Bu
lgari
a
Sp
ain
Cro
ati
a
Ro
man
ia
Slo
ve
nia
Eas
t. E
uro
pe
Italy
Sw
ed
en
UK
Esto
nia
Hu
ng
ary
Po
lan
d
Lit
hu
an
ia
Business insolvencies in Europe: Coface 2019 growth forecast
Source: Coface
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
RIESGO POLÍTICO EN EUROPA: REALIDAD FRENTE A PERCEPCIÓN
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
Actu
al u
ne
mp
loym
en
t ra
te (
%, S
ep
.20
18
)
RIESGO POLÍTICO EN EUROPA: REALIDAD FRENTE A PERCEPCIÓN 2
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
EL PRÓXIMO PARLAMENTO EUROPEO ESTARÁ MÁS FRAGMENTADO
ALDE68
ALDE98
Greens/EFA52
Greens/EFA47
S&D186
S&D129
EPP218
EPP177
22
28
GUE/NGL52
GUE/NGL56
ECR74
ECR62
EFDD44
EFDD46
ENF34
ENF62
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2014
2019(projections)
Federalism Euroscepticism
Sources: European
Parliament, Europe
Elects (Dec 2018)
European Parliament: MEPs by parliamentary group (number of seats)
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
EL INDICADOR DE COFACE DE LAS PRINCIPALES ECONOMÍAS
APUNTA A UN CRECIMIENTO MÁS LENTO EN UN FUTURO PRÓXIMO
Coface Leading Economic Indicator and quarter on quarter GDP growth
GDP Growth (LHS, quarter on quarter)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-3,0%
-2,5%
-2,0%
-1,5%
-1,0%
-0,5%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Italy
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-5,0%
-4,5%
-4,0%
-3,5%
-3,0%
-2,5%
-2,0%
-1,5%
-1,0%
-0,5%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
3,5%
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Germany
Coface Leading Economic Indicator (RHS)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-2,0%
-1,5%
-1,0%
-0,5%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Source: Coface
France
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
DIFERENTES EXPECTATIVAS SOBRE EL PAPEL DE LA EURO ZONA PERO FUERTE SOPORTE AL EURO
Euro is a "good thing" for my country
(% of respondents)
Which would best describe the ideal future of the EU?
(most mentioned answer by country, %)
Source: Eurobarometer Source: Eurobarometer
64
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Gre
ec
eP
ort
ug
al
Lit
hu
an
iaS
lov
akia
Bu
lga
ria
Cro
ati
aS
love
nia
Cze
ch
iaH
un
ga
ryL
atv
iaC
yp
rus
Sp
ain
Po
lan
dE
sto
nia
Ro
ma
nia
Ma
lta
EU
28
Be
lgiu
mG
erm
an
yIt
aly
Au
str
iaF
inla
nd
Irla
nd
eL
ux
.N
eth
er.
UK
Fra
nce
Sw
ed
en
De
nm
ark
Equal wage for the same job accross the EUA high level of security within the EUA minimum level of guarenteed healthcare in all countriesA guarenteed minimum pension across the EUFair and equal access to edcuation for all across the EUGender equality established everywhere in the EUIncreased use of renewable energies within the EU
A minimum level of guaranteed healthcare in all
countries
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-01/china-s-real-exchange-rate-undervalued-5-10-imf-report-says.html
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
MERCADOS EMERGENTES: FLUJOS DE CAPITAL Y VULNERABILIDAD EXTERNA
16
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
01/0
1/15
01/0
1/16
01/0
1/17
01/0
1/18
01/0
1/19
Net non-resident purchases of EM stocks and bonds
(in USD bn, source: IIF)
Local currency versus USD
(YTD in %, 15 April 2019, source: Reuters)
-11,9%
-7,8%
-2,4%
-1,7%
0,3%
0,6%
0,8%
1,5%
1,7%
2,4%
2,5%
3,5%
4,3%
4,5%
7,9%
-20% -10% 0% 10%
Argentinian Peso
Turkish Lira
South Korea Won
Polish Zloty
Nigerian Naira
Brazilian Real
Indian Rupee
Thai Baht
Indonesian Rupiah
Chinese Yuan
South Africa Rand
Egyptian Pound
Mexican Peso
Chilean Peso
Russian Ruble
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Argentina
Turkey
ARGENTINA Y TURQUIA: REALIZADOS LOS AJUSTES EXTERNOS PERO
LOS RIESGOS EMPRESARIALES Y FINANCIEROS SE INCREMENTARÁN
Trade deficit in 2018
(12-month sum, January = 100)
Non Performing Loans
(as a % of total)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
Oct.
20
18
Argentina
Turkey
Sources: National central banks, Coface Sources: Indec, CBRT, Coface
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
CHINA: ALTO RIESGO CORPORATIVO DE CRÉDITO
Amount outstanding of corporate bond defaults
(USD Bn)
0,6
3,4 3,1
16,1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2015 2016 2017 2018
Sources: Bloomberg, Coface Fuente: Coface
Coface Payment Survey:
Average Credit Terms (days)
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
¿SE ESTÁ TOMANDO UN DESCANSO EL CONSUMIDOR CHINO?
Retail and auto sales
(year on year % change)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
13 14 15 16 17 18
Retail sales (LHS)
Auto sales (RHS)
Sources: NBS, Coface
33
26
35
30
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
H1 2014 H1 2015 H1 2016 H1 2017 H1 2018
Bank loans to SME
(as a % of total loans to businesses)
Sources: PBoC, Coface
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
AFRICA: RIESGO SOCIAL, PUNTOS CALIENTES EN 2019
Africa: Indice de Riesgo
Social de Coface - 2018
Fuente: Coface, ACLED
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 21
PRECIOS DEL CRUDO
70,83
63,58
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Jan-
18
Feb-
18
Mar
-18
Apr
-18
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr
-19
USD
Brent & WTI Oil Prices
Brent WTI
Source: Datastream
Last data point: 11/04/2019
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
Mb/
d
OPEC: Unplanned production outages
Source: EIA
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
MEDIDAS PROTECCIONISTAS EEUU-CHINA EFECTOS INDIRECTOS EN EMPRESAS EUROPEAS
Source: Coface
-0,4
-0,7
-4,3
-3,4
-1,2
-0,5 -0,6
-3,7
-4,4
-3,1
-2,4
-1,4
-0,4
-5
-4,5
-4
-3,5
-3
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
To
tal
Ma
nu
fac
turi
ng
Ma
ch
ine
ry
Tra
ns
po
rt e
qu
ip.
Ch
em
icals
Min
ing
Wo
od
, p
ap
er
Ele
ctr
on
ical e
qu
ip.
Fo
od
pro
du
cts
Me
tals
Tex
tile
Ag
ric
ult
ure
Not statistically significant
Statistically significant (at 5%)
World
EU 15
-0,4
-0,7
-4,3
-3,4
-1,2
-0,5 -0,6
-3,7
-4,4
-3,1
-2,4
-1,4
-0,4
-5
-4,5
-4
-3,5
-3
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5T
ota
l
Ma
nu
fac
turi
ng
Ma
ch
ine
ry
Tra
ns
po
rt e
qu
ip.
Ch
em
icals
Min
ing
Wo
od
, p
ap
er
Ele
ctr
on
ical e
qu
ip.
Fo
od
pro
du
cts
Me
tals
Tex
tile
Ag
ric
ult
ure
Not statistically significant
Statistically significant (at 5%)
World
EU 15
-0,4
-0,7
-4,3
-3,4
-1,2
-0,5 -0,6
-3,7
-4,4
-3,1
-2,4
-1,4
-0,4
-5
-4,5
-4
-3,5
-3
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
To
tal
Ma
nu
fac
turi
ng
Ma
ch
ine
ry
Tra
ns
po
rt e
qu
ip.
Ch
em
icals
Min
ing
Wo
od
, p
ap
er
Ele
ctr
on
ical e
qu
ip.
Fo
od
pro
du
cts
Me
tals
Tex
tile
Ag
ric
ult
ure
Not statistically significant
Statistically significant (at 5%)
World
EU 15
Elasticity of Domestic Value Added (DVA) Exports of Country X in relation
to US tariffs on country Y, the DVA receiver
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
DEUDA CORPORATIVA EN MONEDA EXTRANJERA EN EMERGENTES: LA VUELTA AL PECADO ORIGINAL
Corporate debt denominated in USD and EUR
Brazil
Argentina
Chile
China
Colombia
Czech Republic
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Israel
Korea
Malaysia
Poland
Russia
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Thailand
Turkey
Mexico
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
De
bt-
to-G
DP
ra
tio
in
Q2
20
18
(%
)
Percentage point variation2008-2018
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America
Near and Middle East
Fuente: Coface,
IIF
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
IMPORTANTES VENCIMIENTOS DE DEUDA CORPORATIVA EN DOLARES EN 2019
USD denominated corporate debt maturing in 2019 (as a share of GDP)
Sources: Coface, IIF
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
Uk
rain
e
Eg
yp
t
Ke
ny
a
Po
lan
d
Th
ail
an
d
Arg
en
tin
a
Cze
ch
R.
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
Nig
eri
a
Co
lom
bia
Hu
ng
ary
Ru
ss
ia
S.
Ko
rea
Isra
el
Sa
ud
i A
r.
Ind
on
es
ia
Tu
rke
y
Bra
zil
Ch
ile
So
uth
Af.
Me
xic
o
Ma
lay
sia
Non-financial corporate bonds
Non-financial corporate loans
Financial corporate bonds
Financial corporate loans
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2017 2005 2017 2005 2017
Autocracy Anocracy Democracy
MÁS Y MÁS SISTEMAS POLÍTICOS HÍBRIDOS EN EL MUNDO
World: Breakdown of countries by type of political regime
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
GLOBALIZACIÓN
BILL CLINTON UNA VEZ LLAMO A LA
GLOBALIZACIÓN
“ EL EQUIVALENTE ECONÓMICO A UNA
FUERZA DE LA NATURALEZA COMO EL
VIENTO O EL AGUA”
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
NEW GLOBALISATION
EL RESULTADO: ‘LA GRAN CONVERGENCIA’ (1990 A 2014)
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
https://www.ft.com/video/0ba9601c-54c2-43ff-8fb0-56d9b9db6839
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
LA VIDA SIGUE...
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
.
LA VIDA SIGUE …
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
GUERRAS TECNOLÓGICAS
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
GUERRAS TECNOLÓGICAS
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
GUERRAS TECNOLÓGICAS
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 36
EL PERFIL ESTRATÉGICO DEL SECTOR TECNOLÓGICO DE LA INFORMACIÓN Y LA COMUNICACIÓN SE MANTENDRÁ EN 2019
Es uno de los principales sectores en el corazón de la guerra comercial entre China y EEUU.
Ejemplo : Preocupación de otras economias avanzadas que se ha materializada por los gobiernos Canadienses y Australianas sobre la implementación de la tecnología 5G de Huawei.
China importó en 2017 USD 260 billones en semiconductores comparando por ejemplo con las importaciones de EEUU de petróleo de USD 162 billones. China se ha puesto como objetivo un plan estratégico para ser uno de los principales productores mundiales de semi conductores en el 2025. Entre las principales economías mundiales, Europa está por detrás en la carrera tecnológica, incluyendo IA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Europe Americas Asia Pacific
Semi-conductors sales by region
US
D,
bill
ion
Source : Thomas Reuters Datastream
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 37
SECTOR RETAIL GLOBAL: PRINCIPALES TENDENCIAS
La demanda se mantendrá alta pero se reducirá a un 3% desde un 3,2% en el 2018
OFERTA
Cambio en la demanda en economías avanzadas y con mayor segmentación
El comercio tradicional se resiente ante el e-commerce
DEMANDA
Creciente demanda en economías emergentes
En Europa se notará un menor crecimiento
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 38
VENTAS ONLINE TRANSFORMANDO EL SECTOR RETAIL
Desarrollo de transacciones a través de móviles.
El crecimiento 2017 vs 2016 fue del 25%.
En la región de Asia Pacífico es dónde la demanda está creciendo de forma más sostenida.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021*
E-commerce share of global retail sales (%)
*: Forecast
Source:
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
TECHNOLOGICAL WARS
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
EVALUACIONES DE RIESGO PAÍS DE COFACE
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
GRÀCIES PER LA SEVA ATENCIÓ
NO HAY EXPORTACIÓN SI NO HAY FINANCIACIÓN Y NO HAY FINANCIACIÓN SI NO HAY SEGURO