press release. voter registration survey. release date dec.11.2010[1]

8/8/2019 Press Release. Voter Registration Survey. Release Date Dec.11.2010[1]

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December 11, 2010For ReleaseContact: (713) [email protected]

POLL: AFRICAN-AMERICAN VOTERS IN HOUSTON WARY OF THE TEA

PARTY MOVEMENTMOST SEE RACIAL SENTIMENTS AT THE CORE

Race relations in Houston receive an average report card grade ofC

Other Topics: the Houston Economy, Houston Mayor Approval

Ratings, Presidential Primaries 2012, Terrorism and Torture

Houston, TX-This report presents the results from a telephone survey of

registered African-American voters in Houston (N =180) conducted between

September 23 and October 25, 2010 by Texas Southern University ProfessorsCarroll G. Robinson, Esq., Karen Callaghan, Ph.D. and Michael O. Adams, Ph.D. For

additional information on the policy views of African Americans in Houston see the

State of Black Houston Survey Report (included in this e-mail).

The Economy

Almost half of the respondents (48%) say that the Houston economy had gottenworse over the past year. Thirty-nine percent say the same of their family's financialsituation.

Generally speaking, would you say thatover the past year the economy inHouston has gotten better, stayed thesame, or gottenworse?

Generally speaking, would you say thatover the past year your family'sfinancial situation has gotten better,stayed the same, or gotten worse?

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*Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding. *Numbers may not add to 100% due

to rounding.

The economy has been particularly hard on Houston's African-American community.

The unemployment rate for African Americans in the metropolitan area is percent,

nearly two times that of Anglo Americans (American Community Survey, 2009).However, this figure ignores the social capital of working-age African Americans

who, for various reasons, are not in the labor force, such as those who have given

up looking for employment because they are convinced that appropriate jobs are

not available, the incarcerated, and those on disability compensation, among

others. Using a more inclusive definition of joblessness, 38 percent of Black

Americans aged 16-64 in the Houston metro area are unemployed or out of the

labor force compared to 22 percent for Anglos, a gap of 16 percent (see The Crisis

Deepens, Center for Economic Development Report, October 2009).

For all that, 61 percent of African-American voters in Houston still believe that theirfamily's financial situation will improve over the course of the next year. Karen

Callaghan, a Texas Southern University professor who specializes in political

psychology, says that such optimism may be tied to psychology more than

anything else. Despite relatively high joblessness in the Black community, President

Obama has remained fairly upbeat about the economy. His strategy seems to be

working with African Americansthere is a deep well of economic optimism in

Houston's African-American electorate.

Michael Adams, Director of the Masters of Public Administration Program and E-

Governance Center at Texas Southern University, says that the election of formerCity Controller Annise Parker as Houston Mayor may lead many African Americans

to believe that better fiscal responsibility from the local political leadership is on the

way, even though the Mayor's overall approval ratings are mixed, as we soon

demonstrate.

Looking ahead to a year from now, do you think your family's financial situation willget better, stay the same, or get worse?

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*Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.

The Presidential Primary Election, 2012

In response to the question: If the Democratic primary elections for president wereheld today and the choice was between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, would

you vote for Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, or neither? (candidate names were

presented randomly), respondents chose Barack Obama by a wide margin.

Vote Choice - 2012 Democratic Primaries

Additional analyses revealed that vote support cuts across gender, age, and levels

of education. However, respondents below the median family income ($40,000)

favor Obama (92%) slightly more than those above the median income (79%).Furthermore, President Obama maintains a wide lead over Secretary Clinton among

Democrats (85% to 10%) and independents (70% to 10%). Even African-American

Republicans favor Obama over Clinton (64% to 7%). However, the small number of

independents and Republicans in the sample makes these estimates less reliable.

And, given that Hillary Clinton's support is in low digits, there are not enough

supporters in the demographic subgroups to solidly estimate her support. Overall,

however, the results suggest that the momentum Clinton gained during the 2008

presidential primaries in the African-American community seems to have vanished

during the Obama Presidency.

Carroll Robinson, Esq., a Texas Southern University professor who is Chairman ofthe Houston Citizens Chamber of Commerce, a former Houston City Council

member and candidate for U.S. Congress, says that since this survey was fielded

President Obamas ratings among Houstons African-American voters may have

shifted in a negative direction. The Federal Debt Commission Report just released

its proposed changes in tax rates and drastic reductions in spending levels,

government health care programs, and social security. Although Obamas debt-

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reduction plan failed to advance in the House, Congress will likely consider some of

its proposals. Some African-American liberal Democrats may feel that Obama is not

fighting hard enough to end tax cuts for the wealthy.

Karen Callaghan says that part of the problem has to do with messaging. The

Obama stimulus bill which cuttaxes for 95 percent of working families by changing

withholding rates has been all but forgotten, if noticed at all. Instead of sending

everyone a tax rebate letter with a lot of fanfare as President George W. Bush did,

Obama had less money withheld from peoples paychecks, a point that got lost in

the translation. A recent New York Times/CBS News Poll reveals that most people

think that under the Obama administration their personal income taxes have stayed

the same or have gone up.

Houston Mayor's Approval Ratings

The loyalty many African Americans feel towards President Obama has not trickled

down apparently to Houston's Democratic Mayor Annise Parker. Her job approval

ratings are mixed with a slight lean to the negative side. Furthermore, a fairly high

number of respondents are unsure of their opinion of the Mayor or refused to

answer the question altogether (17%). In the 2009 mayoral race against African-

American candidate Gene Locke, Parker was favored by all categories of voters

except African Americans. A survey in Spring 2006 by Texas Southern University

showed that 47 percent of adult African Americans in Houston thought then Mayor

Bill White was doing a good or excellent job with don't know responses or

refusals at 14 percent. The popularity of Mayor Bill White in the African-American

community then may have been enhanced by his strong support for the

resettlement of Katrina evacuees from New Orleans.

How would you rate the job that Mayor Annise Parker is doing lately?

In recent elections, American women have tended to hold distinct attitudes and

vote in patterns different from those of men, often preferring female to male

candidates. While a gender gap in views of Mayor Parker is evident, it is in the

reverse direction. Fifty-two percent of men rate the Mayor's performance as good

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or excellent compared to only 37 percent for women. Voters from higher income

earning families also have higher approval ratings. So do younger voters but only

when the two performance categories are collapsed. There are no appreciable

differences in the mayor's approval ratings by levels of education or partisanship.

Job Performance Ratings of Annise Parker By Gender, Age and Income

Gender Age

Income

Male Female Younger Older

Lower Higher

Excellent 11% 5% 4% 9% 3% 13%

Good 41% 32% 45% 29% 28% 40%

Fair 32% 38% 38% 37% 45% 34%

Poor 2% 9% 4% 9% 8% 6%

Dk/Ref 15% 15% 9% 15% 15% 8%


Looking at the cross-tabulation of age with gender, the Mayor's most prominent

supporters are younger men. Sixty-five percent think the mayor is doing an

excellent or good job compared to 40 percent of younger women. Similarly, 63

percent of men with high family incomes give the mayor positive ratings compared

to 48 percent of women in the same category.

Approval Ratings by Gender X AgeMen Women

Younger Older Younger Older

Excellent 9% 16% ---- 10%

Good 56% 21% 40% 28%

Fair 28% 42% 40% 38%

Poor ----- 21% 6% 14%

Dk/Refuse 6% 21% 9% 15% *Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.

Approval Ratings by Gender X IncomeMen Women

Lower Higher

Lower Higher

Excellent 7% 19% 3% 8%Good 42% 44% 24% 38%

Fair 39% 25% 45% 42%

Poor 3% 0% 13% 8%

Dk/Refused 10% 12% 16% 4%*Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.

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These results suggest that appeals to older African-American women in the

community, while not forgetting a potentially strong base of supportersyounger

men, would be an advisable strategy.

Race Relations

The most common grade African-American voters give race relations in Houston is a

C followed by a B. A grade of C indicates that race relations are about

average performance while a grade of B suggests that race relations are above

average. These grades are an improvement. A 2006 survey of the general

population of adult African Americans in Houston by the Texas Southern University

professors revealed that race relations received an average rating of 48 on a 100-

point scale which is the numerical equivalent of an F. There is no discernible

pattern of responses by age, income or education. However, women are slightly

more inclined to give lower grades than men.

Race Relations in Houston

Men Women

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These fairly crystallized views of race relations are uniquely linked to the Mayor's

approval ratings. Voters who give race relations a grade of A B or C are split

over their assessments of the Mayor's performance, while those who give Houston

failing or close to failing marks on race an F or a D are more dissatisfied

with the Mayor's performance. These results suggest that the Mayor is held

accountable for poor race relations in the city, but has more work to do to be

considered the impetus for change when race relations are seen as moving in a

positive direction. Thus, appeals to Houston's African-American voters for support

will likely be more successful if they take into account the significance of voters'

concerns about race relations, especially those of women. Michael Adams says that

focusing on issues that impact the African-American community, such as

community development, gentrification, and budget cuts, would also be beneficial.

Mayor's Approval Ratings By Racial Report Card

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Tea Party Opinion

The survey included three questions which are useful for gauging African-American

voters' opinion on the Tea Party Movement. First, we measured voters' initialawareness of the Tea Party Movement and their opinions of it.

What is your opionion of the Tea Party Movement? Is it favorable orunfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it yet to have an opinion?

More than a third of the respondents (36%) have not heard of the Tea Party

Movement, an additional 4 percent refused to answer the question. Among those

who have an opinion, nearly half (48%) say they hold an unfavorable view while a

mere 12 percent have a favorable view. Thus, there is low voter awareness of the

Tea Party movement among African-American voters in Houston and relatively little

support for it when voters are aware of it.

Michael Adams says that the finding that a fair number of Houstons African

Americans have no knowledge of the Tea Party is not too surprising. It reminds me

of how the religious right took over the Republican Party virtually unnoticed. It is

also reminiscent of the right-wing Dixiecrat movement of the 1940s which was

organized by those who objected to the Democrats civil rights programs which led

to the creation of the modern Republican Party.

Opinions of the Tea Party

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A recent poll in late August 2010 revealed that 9 percent of Texas voters say that

they are active in the Tea Party movement; 26 percent are friendly towards the Tea

Party and share its goals; 16 percent are hostile towards the Tea Party and oppose

its goals; 38 percent dont care either way; and 10 percent are unsure of their

position (Hill Research Consultants Survey for the Texas Watch Foundation). The

fact that nearly 1 in 10 likely voters in Texas considers themselves to be an activeTea Party member and an additional 1 in 4 is happy to identify with the movement

suggests that future battles are ahead. Karen Callaghan says that, if the Tea Party

movement continues to gain popularity and some of the focus is on race, some of

the African-American voters who are unaware of the Tea Party Movement may be

expected to move into the unfavorable column.

Second, we asked respondents who answered favorable or unfavorable to the

initial Tea Party question two follow up questions:

Do you think the Tea Party movement is motivated by anti-black sentiments?

Do you think the Tea Party movement is opposed to President Obamapersonally because of his race?

More than half of the voters believe that the Tea Party movement is racially

motivated (52%) and nearly three quarters (72%) believe that the Tea Party

opposes President Obama due to his race.

Tea Party is Motivated by Anti-black Sentiments Tea Party 0poses Obama

Because of Race

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Karen Callaghan says that given historic racial inequalities in the electoral arena

and elsewhere, African-American voters may feel the need to protect Obama---to

circle the wagons. The fact that the Tea Party has been highly critical of Obama's

policies gives rise to the perception of a racial attack. She adds that,the

increasingly ubiquitous Tea Party movement with its perceived anti-racial agenda

may help solidify Barack Obama's support among African Americans if he seeks re-election.

Michael Adams says that there is a level of consciousness among African

Americans who realize that the economic turmoil began under the Bush

Administration and the Obama Presidency has been left to remedy the financial

impact. So seeing as the uproar is against President Obama, few are criticizing the

root of the problem, African Americans are led to believe that the Tea Party is

heavily motivated by race. Also, phrases such as 'take back our country' and other

racially-coded phrases seen at numerous rallies have led many to perceive the Tea

Party movement as racially motivated.

Voters who see the Tea Party in anti-racial terms are more likely to hold unfavorable

opinions of it, with widest gap occurring when the Tea Party is perceived as being

anti Obama due to race.

Opinions of the Tea Party By RacialPerceptions

Anti Obama AntiBlack

Yes No Dk/Ref YesNo Dk/Ref

Tea Party OpinionFavorable 11% 38% 46% 13% 26% 27%

Unfavorable 89% 62% 54% 87% 74%73%

*Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents who have not heardabout the Tea Party or refused to answer the question are excluded from this analysis.

Furthermore, older voters are more likely to view the Tea Party's agenda as a racial

attack on President Obama than younger voters. The age variable, split at the

median age (1953), naturally divides into two theoretically meaningful cohorts

younger voters socialized after the Civil Rights Movement, and older voters

socialized prior to the Civil Rights Movement, with the 1964 Civil Rights Act and1965 Voting Rights Act as the dividing line.

Is the Tea Party Anti 0bama due to Race?

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One would think that younger generations of African Americans who have been

socialized in an era when Jim Crow racism is less consistent with American racial

values or, at least, socially unacceptable, would be less likely to view the Tea

Party's agenda as anti-black than older generations who were socialized in an era

when overt racism, dejure and defacto, was socially acceptable. But this is not what

we found. Perceptions of the Tea Party as an anti-black political movement wereslightly more pervasive among younger voters than older voters (61% to 51%,

respectively).

Next, we examine overall Tea Party opinion by demographic characteristics. Looking

at the numbers vertically, better educated respondents are the least favorable

toward the Tea Party Movement followed by those with higher family incomes, older

voters, and men.

Opinions of the Tea Party By Age, Gender, Income, andEducation

Age Gender Younger Older Men

WomenTea Party Opinion

Favorable 13% 7% 6%12%

Unfavorable 38% 59% 47% 46%Haven't Heard About It 43% 32% 35% 41%

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Refused 7% 3% 12%1%

Income Education

Low High HS/BelowAssoc. Degree

Tea Party OpinionFavorable 12% 13% 13%

8%Unfavorable 41% 60% 36%

65%Haven't Heard About It 40% 26% 45% 24%Refused 6% 2% 6%

3%


Karen Callaghan says that instead of focusing criticism on a Black presidents

politics and unnerving minority voters, a forward-looking Tea Party strategy would

offer credible solutions for the policies and programs it has identified as

problematic---mainly debt and bloated governmentand a viable plan to enhance

America's core competencies and strategic advantage.

Michael Adams says that the association of race with politics also illustrates the

need for the U.S. to tackle race relations in order to arrive at a place where politics

is strictly reflective of the issues and not the racial or ethnic makeup of those

involved in the policy-making process.

Terrorism and Torture

National polls show that most Americans, especially African Americans, view war

and terrorism as one of the least important issues facing the country with jobs and

the economy now taking center stage. However, this lack of focus should not be

confused with a lack of opinion on the war. On the contrary; as shown here, most

respondents (85%) could offer a report card grade. There are no differences in

report card grades across demographic subgroups except for age with older voters

awarding higher grades than younger voters (53% to 29%, respectively.)

How does Houston's African-American electorate feel about the U.S. using torture

against suspected terrorists? While two out of five oppose the use of torture, nearly

one-third accept it, and another one-third is undecided or refused to answer the

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question. Karen Callaghan says that popular American films with leading African-

Americans actors that portray torture as vital to our national security (e.g., Samuel

Jackson in Unthinkable) may provide cues with which to accept the morality of it.

What grade would you give the UnitedStates when it comes to fighting the war

on terror?

Do you think that the United States canfight Terrorism without sometimes using

torture against suspected terrorists?

*Respondents were told that Yes means wecan fight terrorism without having to usetorture; No means we cannot fight terrorismwithout sometimes using torture

As the bar graph shows, perceptions of how well the U.S. is succeeding in fighting

terrorism are linked to views about the necessity of torture. Voters who give the

U.S. high marks are more likely to believe that some torture is necessary, those who

give the fight against terrorism low marks are more likely to dismiss the necessity

of it.

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When African-American voters in Houston consider the use of torture they draw on

stable demographic and partisan dispositions for their assessments. Those who

believe that torture is necessary sometimes tend be younger in age, male, less

educated, Democrats, with lower family incomes. More information on African-

American opinions on the war can be found in the State of Black Houston Survey

Report (included in this e-mail).

Torture Opinion By Demographic and Partisan Subgroups

The 2010 Survey of Registered African-American Voters in Houston

Texas Southern University

Study Fact Sheet

This list-based random sample of 180 registered African-American voters inHouston, Texas was interviewed by telephone between September 23 and October25, 2010. This study was conducted by faculty at Texas Southern University. The

goal of this survey is to enhance representative democracy through a betterunderstanding of the needs and opinions of minority citizens.

Study Design: The maximum margin of sampling error is approximately + 6.4% atthe 95% confidence level for responses that are in the middle of the samplingdistribution (around 50%). Response percentages at either end of the distribution(for example, percentages around 10% or 90%), have a much smaller margin of

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error. The margin of error is larger for our analyses of subgroups. Calculations takeinto account survey design and post-stratification weighting.

Of course, the margin of error calculations presuppose the use of an appropriatebenchmark comparisoni.e., the marginal distributions in a trusted survey orenumeration. However, finding good estimates of the population of registered

African-American voters who live in the city of Houston proved to be a challenge.Ultimately, we derived our demographic weighting targets from several sources ofinformation, both commercial and governmental. When we compared our sampleresponses to voter registration estimates it became evident that we had in ourreturns an under-representation of males and young people. Therefore, the samplewas weighted by gender and age to adjust for the relative ease of contactingfemales and older adults relative to their prevalence in the target population.

Telephone numbers were randomly selected by a computer from the initial lists ofregistered voters. Since the name of the respondent was known, interviewers askedfor the respondent by name thus improving rapport between the interviewer andthe respondent. Telephone interviews (live, not automated) were conducted on

either a land line or cell phone. Once a voter's name and telephone number hadbeen selected, interviews were attempted with the specified voter. Severalattempts were made to reach and interview randomly selected voters. Interviewswere conducted on different days of the week and times of the day. Substitutionswere allowed in certain instances. In those instances, a reverse match linked namesand addresses and other information given by the respondent to actual registrationlists. Thirty-five percent of the interviews were back-checked by supervisors.Theinterview averaged ten minutes in length.

Sample Representativeness: The average respondent is a female (59 percent),the median year of birth is 1953, the median family income is under $40,000,Eighty percent of the sample are Democrats, 6 percent are Independents, 7 percent

are Republicans, 1 percent belong to some other party, and 6 percent don't knowtheir party affiliation or refused to answer the question. Forty three percent of thesample have a high school degree or less. Demographic estimates are based on theweighted sample.

Interviewer Effects:The interviewers for this study were predominantly AfricanAmerican (98%) thus offsetting the potential response bias and estimation problemsthat typically plague surveys of minority opinions that do not employ same-raceinterviewers. Due to social pressures, minority respondents tend to be less inclinedto share negative opinions about the government and racial issues with non-minority interviewers.

Study Directors

Karen Callaghan, Ph.D. Political Science Professor, Texas Southern University,

recently returned from Afghanistan, served as Senior Research Scientist, and

conducted attitude surveys for the U.S. Military led coalition of NATO/ISAF forces.

Fields: Political Psychology/Behavior, Methodology. Cell: (713) 328-9584.

[email protected]

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Carroll G. Robinson, Esq. Public Administration Professor, Texas Southern

University, Chairman of the Houston Citizens Chamber of Commerce, former At-

Large member of the Houston City Council, former General Counsel of the Texas

Democratic Party and a Democratic candidate for Congress in 2002.

Michael O. Adams, Ph.D. Public Administration Professor, Texas SouthernUniversity and Director of the E-Governance Center, the Master of Public

Administration (MPA) Program and the Executive MPA program. Cell: (713) 418-

0897. [email protected]

Acknowledgments

Dr. Solomon Osho, Associate Professor, Prairie View A&M University and adjunctprofessor, MPA Program, Texas Southern University, also participated in theadministration of the survey.

We also thank Texas Southern University students in Research Methods 301 and the

graduate students in the Master of Public Administration Program who helpedcomplete a portion of the interviews. We are also grateful to our graduate researchassistants Simone Parker, Quonna Coleman, and Subria Lapps.

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press release. voter registration survey. release date dec.11.2010[1]

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