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NOAA’s Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

“Imagine the Future”Opportunities for NOAA and Research/Academic Partners

Presentation to the NOAA Executive Committeeby

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction

December 8, 2006

DRAFT

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NOAA’s Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

“Imagine the Future”Opportunities for NOAA and Research/Academic Partners

• Purpose: Invited Information Brief

• Background: Building Blocks in Place for Advancing NOAA Prediction Capabilities

• Strategic Opportunities for NOAA

• Vision for the Future

• Output: Future Steps

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Purpose: Invited Information Brief

• Linking NOAA/NWS/NESDIS/OAR/NOS to larger research and academic communities

• Accelerating the transition of research to operations and applications

• Improving products and services– Operational global analyses of the “earth system”– Prediction products

• Recruiting the next generation of NOAA employees

Opportunities offered by the NCWCP

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Background: Building Blocks in Place for Advancing NOAA Prediction Capabilities

• University of Maryland: New Building Right Next Door!– Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center– Cooperative Institute for Climate Studies– DOE and NSF climate program components

• NASA/GSFC: Considering move(s) to new UMD Building– Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office– Hydrology Laboratory– Goddard Laboratories for Atmospheres

Research Components

• OAR Air Resources Laboratory• NESDIS Center for Satellite

Applications and Research (STAR)

Co-located with NCEP at the NCWCP

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NOAA Center for Weather and

Climate Prediction

NORTH

First New UMDBuilding

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Background: Building Blocks in Place for Advancing NOAA Prediction Capabilities

• Access to 200 + million observations/day from the entire globe (atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere)– Remotely sensed (Satellite, radar, …)– In situ (surface, aircraft, buoys, balloon borne, …)

• Data assimilation infrastructure geared to entire range of data for operational and research use

• Model predictions: from dispersion to S/I climate– Atmosphere, land, ocean, cryosphere– Deterministic and Ensemble

• Service Centers: deliver products that cover range from short-range weather and oceans to seasonal and interannual climate

Unique Operational Infrastructure – Cutting across all NOAA Lines

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• Environmental Modeling Center – partners with– NESDIS– NOS– OAR/ESRL, ARL, GFDL, NSSL– NASA/GSFC– NRL– NCAR/DTC

• Climate Test Bed– Accelerate improvements to CFS for S/I predictions

• NASA/NOAA/DOD Joint Center for Data Assimilation– Accelerate the use of satellite data; ready for NPOESS at day 1

• Hydrometeorological Test Bed (under development)• NCEP Central Operations: fully documented

implementation process used by research and operations partners

Research/Transitions: “Accelerating the R2O Process”

Background: Building Blocks in Place for Advancing NOAA Prediction Capabilities

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EMCNCO

R&D Operations Delivery

Criteria

Transition from Research to Operations

Requirements

EMC

NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process

OPS Life cycleSupport

Service Centers

NOAAResearch

Concept of Operations

ServiceCenters

Test BedsJCSDA

Hydromet. Test BedClimate Test Bed

WRF DTCJHT

User

Ob

serv

atio

n

Sys

tem

Launch List – Model Implementation Process

FieldOffices;

Other NOAAComponents

Effort

EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operationsOther Agencies

&International

Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

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Strategic Opportunities for NOAA

• How best to capitalize:– NOAA’s investment in the NCWCP– Ongoing partnership with UMD and other research entities– Collaborative efforts with NASA/GSFC

To improve and expand NOAA’s products and services?

• How to seize the opportunities as NOAA expands into an “earth system” approach for research to service provision that addresses the interdisciplinary approach required to improve products and services?

• How to attract the “best and the brightest” to address NOAA’s goals?

Center of gravity offered by NCWCP recognized by the PSTT report to the NOAA Research Council

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Vision for the Future

Create the Advanced Study Institute for Environmental Prediction (ASIEP): based on ASIEP White Paper*

• Expand beyond the traditional weather and climate prediction

• Expand Ocean Coastal Zone predictive capabilities

• Expand water/air quality predictive capabilities

From the Building Blocks:

* Coordinated through NOAA Research CouncilPPBES – W&W/EMP, ClimateLine Offices – NWS, NESDIS, OAR, NOS

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Vision for the Future

Make NCWCP a central underpinning for GEOSS

• Build upon data/model distribution from operations to research communities:– NCDC NOMADS Archive and Distribution– Unidata CONDUIT/NCAR Archive– Ocean Model output to Regional Centers

For full capitalization of NOAA’s investment– It is not just “R2O”– It is also “O2R”

Data AccessData AssimilationModel Forecast

ResearchOperationsField Programs(e.g. THORPEX, IPY, …)

AtmosphereOceanLandCryosphere

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Output: Future Steps

• Energize the PPBES – account for possibilities offered by– NCWCP– Ongoing “building blocks” of Operations,

Research, Transition

• Re-energize the the ASIEP proposal through W&W/EMP, Climate and Ecosystem

• Relook at NCWCP and JCSDA roles within GEOSS

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Output: Future Steps

• Consider a co-location– Increased programmatic requirements beyond

NCWCP (Climate Test Bed and NESDIS GOES R) already being considered for co-location

– Need a concerted look at possibility of NOS Ecosystem components co-locating with NCWCP

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Summary

• Creation of NCWCP and concurrent actions by UMD point to “once in a lifetime” opportunities for NOAA– Unique combination of global operational infrastructure and research

components– Expansion of the prediction component beyond the standard weather,

climate and ocean into ecosystems, air/water quality, health,…– GEOSS

• Proposal for ASIEP being worked through NOAA process that needs to be energized

• Various co-locations/moves could still be considered – need to be aggressively considered

• Center of excellence will provide a ready source for the next generation NOAA workforce