Wintertime Component of T-PARCJan 2009 – March 2009

Environmental Modeling CenterNOAA/NWS/NCEP

USA

Acknowledgements: Rick Rosen, Louis Uccellini, John Gaynorhttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tparc/

CAS Technical Conference, 15-16 November 2009, Incheon, Korea

Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

Talk prepared by Song &Toth reduced and given by Burridge on behalf of Uccelini who is in the KMA - questions to Uccelini tomorrow!

Collaborative Effort of Multiple Agencies

CONTRIBUTORS / PARTICIPANTS• Funding for observing assets

– NOAA, Env. Canada, Roshydromet, Japan

• Science / operational aspects– US, Canada, Mexico, Russia, Japan, ECMWF/UKMO

(including Universities and Institutions)

• Data archiving– NASA Langley Research Center Ackn: John Murray and Jared Entin (NASA)

3

Study the lifecycle of perturbations as they originate from the tropics, Asia, and/or the polar front, travel through the Pacific waveguide, and affect high

impact wintertime weather events over North America and the Arctic

MAIN THEME OF WINTER T-PARC

Tropical flare-ups in western Pacific (IR)

merge with

Waves on westerly flowto influence

Deep cyclogenesis in northeast Pacific

Verification region, 12UTC 14 Oct

Sensitive area 1, 00UTC 11 Oct

Sensitive area 2, 00UTC 11 Oct

Captured by Ensemble Transform KF targeting method

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SCIENCE HYPOTHESES • Rossby-wave propagation plays a major role in the development of high impact

weather events over North America and the Arctic on the 3-5 days forecast time scale

• Additional remotely sensed and in situ data can complement the standard observational network in capturing critical multi-scale processes in Rossby-wave initiation and propagation

• Adaptive configuration of the observing network and data processing can significantly improve the quality of data assimilation and forecast products

• Regime dependent planning/targeting • Case dependent targeting

• New DA, modeling and ensemble methods can better capture and predict the initiation and propagation of Rossby-waves leading to high impact events

• Forecast products, including those developed as part of the TPARC research, will have significant social and/or economic value

Day -4-6

RAWIN

Russia

D -2-4

G-IV

D -1-3

C-130

G-IV

North

America

VR

Arctic

VR Day -5-6E-AMDAR

Extensive observational platforms during T-PARC winter phase allow us to track the potential storms and take additional observations

as the perturbation propagate downstream into Arctic and North America

ENHANCED OBSERVING PLATFORMS

Winter T-PARC platform statistics

NOAA G-IV:

24 successful missions, 201hrs flown with 456 dropsondes

Out of Japan during Jan 11 to Feb 26, 2009

USAF C-130s:

14 successful missions, 142.8hrs flown with 212 dropsondes

Out of Alaska during Jan 20 to Feb 13, 2009

E-AMDAR from Lufthansa airlines:

(Descents and Ascents: boxed area)

Total: 802+1103=1905 profiles

7040+10600=17640 en route obs

From Jan 11 – Feb 28, 2009

Enhanced Russia RAOBS:

Total 602 radiosondes released

from 37 selected stations for 33 cases

From Jan 12 to Feb 28, 2009

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March 1, 2009 CA Storm

• Weather event with a large societal impact• Each GFS run verified against its own analysis – 60 hr forecast• Impact on surface pressure verification• RMS error improvement: 35.2% (7.07mb vs. 9.56mb)Targeted in high impact weather area marked by the circle

Surface pressure from analysis (hPa; solid contours)Forecast Improvement (hPa, red)Forecast Degradation (hPa, blue)

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Error reductions on a case-by-case basis as much as 35%

Degraded

Improved

TargetArea

VerificationArea

Verification DomainLocation/Time: case dependentSize: same for every case (1,000 km radius / sfc to 100mb)

Error with Dropsondes

Err

or w

ithou

t Dro

pson

des

Overall results for Surface pressure(T-PARC 2009)

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T-PARC Summary statistics

Variable# cases

improved# cases neutral

#cases degraded

Surface pressure 37 0 15

Temperature 35 0 17

Vector Wind 36 0 16

Humidity 28 0 24

39 OVERALL POSITIVE CASES.

13 OVERALL NEGATIVE CASES. 75% improved 25% degraded

TARGETED DROPSONDE IMPACT ON 24H FORECAST ERROR IN NOGAPS/NAVDAS

Jan 20/12UTC high impact per-observation

Summed impact of dropsonde observations (error reduction is

NEGATIVE, units are J kg-1)Courtesy of Rolf Langland

JANUARY 2009

1x10-3 J kg-1 (Moist Total Energy Norm)

JANUARY 2009

Error Reduction Error Increase

Total # of targeted radiosonde data = 27,508 (06UTC and 18UTC)

Number of targeted radiosonde profiles = 247 (33 stations provided at least one profile)

Total targeted radiosonde impact = -0.4322 J kg-1

For comparison: 00UTC and 12UTC observations from these same stations: -4.24 J kg-1 and 2,154 profiles during all of January 2009

Courtesy of Rolf Langland

TARGETED RADIOSONDE IMPACT ON 24H FORECAST ERROR IN NOGAPS/NAVDAS

Total # targeted LH-EAMDAR ascent/descent data = 17,444 (12-31 January 2009)

Total targeted LH-EAMDAR impact = -0.583 J kg-1

GLOBAL Lufthansa AMDAR ascent/descent impact = -2.89 J kg-1 and 113,151 data during all of January 2009

Summary and Plans• Field phase successfully completed

– First time vertical profiling of winter storms west of the dateline • Data archived at NASA (LARC)• Ideal framework for wide variety of research opportunities

– Dynamical /physical processes– Storm initiation/propagation– Role of moist processes– Interaction of tropical convection with extra-tropical storms– Socio-economical impact studies

• Need to identify funding resources for further research• Ongoing evaluation

– NRL preliminary evaluation • large positive impact on the 24hr forecast• more than 90% of targeted observations reduced forecast errors

– NCEP data denial experiments• Full T-PARC targeted data rejection – major impact• Rejection of aircraft data only (ongoing)

• Proposed joint meeting with summer T-PARC next year