NCEP Status

“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

Dr. Louis W. UccelliniNational Centers for Environmental Prediction

Director

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NWS-OAR Model Issues MeetingDecember 3, 2012College Park, MD

Outline

• Strategic Basis for NCEP Model Suite• Ongoing Review Activities• Operational Global Models: How to

Improve• Links to OAR• Summary

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Strategic Basis for NCEP Model Suite

• Climate – Weather Linkage• Earth System Model – approach applied

across all scales• Run within ESMF• MMEs applied across all

scales• Community model approach

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NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12

NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission

– Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAARelated to ability to meet service-based metrics (below)

– National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics

(* Government Performance & Results Act)Hurricane Track and Intensity Winter Storm WarningPrecipitation Threat Flood WarningMarine Wind Speed and Wave Height

– Customer Service ProviderOperational numerical guidance provides foundational tools

used by Government, public and private industry to Improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive US economic growth

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Lead Time and

Accuracy!

NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12

Regi

onal

DA

5

Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMNMMBGFS, Canadian Global Model

Regional NAMNEMS-NMMB

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Refreshfor Aviation

Climate ForecastSystem

NOAA’s OperationalNumerical Guidance Suite

GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansHYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

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Regi

onal

DA

Satellites + Radar99.9%

~2B Obs/Day

NOS – OFS• Great Lakes• Northern

Gulf of Mex• Columbia R.

Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware

SpaceWeather

ENLIL

Sea Nettle

Forecast

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

Regi

onal

DA

NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12

Global Data AssimilationSystem Upgrade

• Hybrid system– Most of the impact comes from this

change– Uses ensemble forecasts to help

define background error

• NPP (ATMS) assimilated– Quick use of data 7 months after

launch

• Use of GPSRO Bending Angle rather than refractivity– Allows use of more data (especially

higher in atmos.)– Small positive impacts

• Satellite radiance monitoring code– Allows quicker awareness of problems (run

every cycle)– Monitoring software can automatically detect

many problems

• Partnership between research and operations– (NASA/GMAO, NOAA/ESRL, Univ OK, and

NOAA/NCEP)

• Consolidation across systems– Unify operational data assimilation system

for global, regional and hurricane applications

– Cost effective—O&M– Configuration management

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Implemented 22 May 2012

NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12 7

NCEP Closing the International GapJune, July, August 500hPa Geopotential RMSE

NCEP achieved significant improvement in 2012 for day 3 and beyond

NCEP is now similar to UKMO skill in this metric and AC

Meteo-FrCMCNCEPUKMOECMWF

2011 2012

Solid line lower than dashed indicates improvement between 2011 and 2012

NCEP Only System to show improvement between 2011 and 2012

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Attribute CFS v1.0Operational Since

2004

CFS v2.0Operational Since March 2011

Multi-model Ensembles

(MME)

Analysis Resolution

200 km 27 km International MME

(Operational)

NCEPUKMet

ECMWFMeteoFrance

Atmosphere model

2003: 200 km/64 levelsHumidity based clouds

2010: 100 km/64 levelsVariable CO2

AER SW & LW radiationPrognostic clouds & liquid water

Retuned mountain blockingConvective gravity wave drag

Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S1/3 x 1 deg.

Assim depth 750 m

MOM-4 fully global¼ x ½ deg.

Assim depth 4737 m

Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation

2-level OSU LSMNo separate land data

assim

4 level Noah modelGLDAS driven by obs precip

National MME

(Research)

NCEPGFDLNCARGSFCCOLA

U.Miami/RSMASU.CO/CIRES

Princeton

Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and 3-layer interactive sea ice model

Coupling Daily 30 minutes

Data assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis,

uncoupled background

Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background

Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output

24/month (seasonal)124/month (week 3-6)

NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS)

Ongoing Review Activities

• UCAR Review Team – Has made the Strategic Model Plan the #1 priority

• Climate Test Bed Advisory Board – Build towards CFS v3, based on community input and

climate-weather linkages– Expand MME concept to an “NMME”

• Space Weather– Build the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) within next 3-

5 years by extending GFS up to 600 km• Weather Models

– DTC– NUOPC/ESPC– NAEFS 9

Operational Global Models: How to Improve

• GFS, CFS, MME• Short term plans for FY13-15: build off new

computer installation• Longer term plans:

– Establish evaluation criteria– Evaluate new model cores– Include within MME approach– Coordinate with NUOPC/ESPC– Include test bed as fundamental part of decision

process– Work from written plans (e.g., DA plan) 10

NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12 11

Planned GFS/GDAS 2013-2014 Operational Upgrade

• Next window of opportunity for GDAS/GFS upgrade• Nov 2013 to May 2014• Follows WCOSS Moratorium

• Model configuration• T1148 Semi-Lagrangian, L64 (~16km 0-8 days)• T574 Semi-Lagrangian, L64 (~27km 8-16 days)• Physics upgrades for the radiation and precipitation parameterizations

• Data assimilation upgrade • 3D-En-Var Dual Resolution

• 80-member ensemble at 27-km and a 16-km analysis with 64 vertical levels

• New and enhanced observations• Cloudy Radiance• Satellite winds• CrIS from NPP• METOP-B • SSMI/S GPS-RO enhancements

• New integrated bias correction• Water Vapour analysis enhancements

• Climatological CO2, Methane, Nitrous Oxide and CO for input in CRTM*• Consistent cloud water retrieval in quality control

NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12 12

Planned GFS/GDAS 2015 Operational Upgrade

• Next window of opportunity for GDAS/GFS upgrade• Nov 2014 to May 2015• Follows 2014 hurricane season

• Model configuration• T1148L95 (0-8 days)• T547L95 (8-16 days)• Raised model top in preparation for space weather module• Physics upgrades for the radiation and precipitation parameterizations

• Data assimilation upgrade • 4D-En-Var Dual Resolution

• 80-member ensemble at 27-km and a 16-km analysis with 95 vertical levels

• New and enhanced observations• New integrated bias correction

NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12 13

• Facilitated by the NOAA Climate Test Bed

• NMME as a Modeling Test-Bed• Seasonal to Interannual Time Scales• Predictability Research: e.g., South East US Drought• Model Evaluation and Development• Initialization Strategies: e.g., Land, Ocean• Fosters interaction between research and operations• Provides experimental guidance products to Climate Prediction Center

• Participating Organizations:• University of Miami - RSMAS• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)• Center for Ocean--‐Land--‐Atmosphere Studies (COLA)• International Research Ins7tute for Climate and Society (IRI)• Canadian Meteorological Centre (Soon)

National Multi-ModelEnsemble (NMME) Project

Data are available at: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/

• NASA – GMAO• NOAA/NCEP/EMC/CPC• NOAA/GFDL• Princeton University• University of Colorado (CIRES

Links to OAR

• CPO– CFS/CTB– DYNAMO

• ESRL/Boulder– Rapid Refresh– Data Assimilation– Global Weather– HFIP– Drone Evaluation

• GFDL– Oceans!– Climate – NMME, FV

dynamic core– Physics

• AOML– JCSDA– HFIP

• ARL– HYSPLIT– Air Quality

• NSSL– Mesoscale MME– Radar DA

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Keep in mind, we have similar lists for NESDIS and NOS

Summary

• NCEP is strategically positioned to work with larger research community extending well beyond OAR (NESDIS, NOS, NSF, NASA, DOE)

• Exceptional interaction with OAR – most productive has been initiated through written agreements (DA & FIM most recent examples)

• Agree we need a strategy for models and HPCC within NOAA for short term weather (day 1-15; DTC Testbed?) and short term climate (week 2 – seasonal and beyond; CTB)

• Implementation process must be inclusive and criteria for decision well-documented. Nevertheless, NCEP Director will still have final say.

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THANK YOU