National Centers for Environmental Prediction:

An Overview

“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

Dr. Louis W. UccelliniNational Centers for Environmental Prediction

Director

1

March 2, 2011

Visit ofSoutheastern University Research Association

2

Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Respond & Feedback

Respond & Feedback

NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD DistributeDistribute

ObserveObserve

Products & Forecast Services

To Serve Diverse Customer Base

e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency

Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation,

Health organizations (CDC…)

NCEP

Feedback

- Process- Assimilate- Predict

- Process- Assimilate- Predict

Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models

CentralGuidanceCentral

GuidanceLocal

OfficesLocal

Offices

Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

3

Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products

Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

Space Weather Prediction Center

NCEP Central OperationsClimate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center

Aviation Weather Center

4

5

What Does NCEP Do?

- Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather

- International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts

- Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

- Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

“From the Sun to the Sea”

• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts

• Climate Seasonal Forecasts

• El Nino – La Nina Forecast

• Weather Forecasts to Day 7

• Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather)

• Aviation Forecasts and Warnings

• High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

5

6

Climate/WeatherLinkage

Week 2 Hazards Assessment

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

CPC

For

ecas

t L

ead

Tim

eF

orec

ast

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

TPCOPCHPC

SWPCAWCSPC

Service Center Perspective

Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8

Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 :

NDFD, Days 4 -7

6-10 Day ForecastM

arit

ime

Mar

itim

eM

arit

ime

Mar

itim

e

Lif

e &

Pro

pert

yL

ife

& P

rope

rty

Lif

e &

Pro

pert

yL

ife

& P

rope

rty

Spa

ce O

pera

tion

sS

pace

Ope

rati

ons

Spa

ce O

pera

tion

sS

pace

Ope

rati

ons

Rec

reat

ion

Rec

reat

ion

Rec

reat

ion

Rec

reat

ion

Eco

syst

emE

cosy

stem

Eco

syst

emE

cosy

stem

Env

iron

men

tE

nvir

onm

ent

Env

iron

men

tE

nvir

onm

ent

Em

erge

ncy

Mgm

t E

mer

genc

y M

gmt

Em

erge

ncy

Mgm

t E

mer

genc

y M

gmt

Agr

icul

ture

Agr

icul

ture

Agr

icul

ture

Agr

icul

ture

Res

ervo

ir C

ontr

olR

eser

voir

Con

trol

Res

ervo

ir C

ontr

olR

eser

voir

Con

trol

Ene

rgy

Pla

nnin

gE

nerg

y P

lann

ing

Ene

rgy

Pla

nnin

gE

nerg

y P

lann

ing

Com

mer

ceC

omm

erce

Com

mer

ceC

omm

erce

Hyd

ropo

wer

Hyd

ropo

wer

Hyd

ropo

wer

Hyd

ropo

wer

Fir

e W

eath

erF

ire

Wea

ther

Fir

e W

eath

erF

ire

Wea

ther

Hea

lth

Hea

lth

Hea

lth

Hea

lth

Avi

atio

nA

viat

ion

Avi

atio

nA

viat

ion

Seasonal Predictions

7

Climate/WeatherLinkage

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Climate Forecast System

For

ecas

t L

ead

Tim

eF

orec

ast

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

Ocean ModelHYCOMWave Watch III

Global Forecast System

North American Forecast

Rapid Update Cycle for AviationDispersion Models for DHS

NCEP Model Perspective

Mar

itim

eM

arit

ime

Mar

itim

eM

arit

ime

Lif

e &

Pro

pert

yL

ife

& P

rope

rty

Lif

e &

Pro

pert

yL

ife

& P

rope

rty

Spa

ce O

pera

tion

sS

pace

Ope

rati

ons

Spa

ce O

pera

tion

sS

pace

Ope

rati

ons

Rec

reat

ion

Rec

reat

ion

Rec

reat

ion

Rec

reat

ion

Eco

syst

emE

cosy

stem

Eco

syst

emE

cosy

stem

Env

iron

men

tE

nvir

onm

ent

Env

iron

men

tE

nvir

onm

ent

Em

erge

ncy

Mgm

t E

mer

genc

y M

gmt

Em

erge

ncy

Mgm

t E

mer

genc

y M

gmt

Agr

icul

ture

Agr

icul

ture

Agr

icul

ture

Agr

icul

ture

Res

ervo

ir C

ontr

olR

eser

voir

Con

trol

Res

ervo

ir C

ontr

olR

eser

voir

Con

trol

Ene

rgy

Pla

nnin

gE

nerg

y P

lann

ing

Ene

rgy

Pla

nnin

gE

nerg

y P

lann

ing

Com

mer

ceC

omm

erce

Com

mer

ceC

omm

erce

Hyd

ropo

wer

Hyd

ropo

wer

Hyd

ropo

wer

Hyd

ropo

wer

Fir

e W

eath

erF

ire

Wea

ther

Fir

e W

eath

erF

ire

Wea

ther

Hea

lth

Hea

lth

Hea

lth

Hea

lth

Avi

atio

nA

viat

ion

Avi

atio

nA

viat

ion

Hurricane – GFDL, WRFGLOFS BaysChesapeakeTampaDelaware

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

ChesapeakeTampa

DelawareADCIRC

8

Air QualityWRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model

Regional NAMWRF NMM

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Updatefor Aviation

ClimateCFSv2

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s Model Production Suite

MOM4

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

Oceans

HYCOM

WAVEWATCH III

NAM/CMAQ

8

Regi

onal

DA

Regi

onal

DA

Satellites + Radar99.9%

3.5B Obs/Day

NOSPORTSGLOFS

Computing Capability

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

JULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANN

umbe

r of H

its (M

illio

ns)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

“reliable, timely and accurate”

• Transition to IBM Power 6 complete– Declared operational

August 12, 2009– 73.1 trillion calculations/sec– Factor of 4 increase over the

IBM Power5 – 156 POWER6 32-way nodes– 4,992 processors– 20 terabytes of memory – 330 terabytes of disk space– 3.5 billion observations/day– 27.8 million model fields/day

• Primary: Gaithersburg, MD• Backup: Fairmont, WV

– Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes

– Web access to models as they run on the CCS

2010

Examples of Forecast Metrics

10

11

12

13

• EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

• CPC Climate Test Bed

• NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed

• HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed

• SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL

• SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA

• AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed

• OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (CSDL and CO-OPS)

Test BedsService – Science Linkage

between the Operational and Research Communities

14

Joint Hurricane Testbed• Managed through the NOAA USWRP• Designed to accelerate R2O at the USWRP

• Principal Investigators apply for funding through NOAA• A seven member Steering Committee rates all proposals• Funded projects are tested during one or two hurricane seasons in conjunction

with NHC/EMC points of contact• At the project’s end, each are evaluated by NHC/EMC staff• Implementation of successful projects are then carried out by NHC/EMC

staff/PIs

• 1) Number of projects supported: 62– 50 completed, 35.5 accepted for operational implementation, 5 rejected– 9.5 completed but pending further investigation– 12 projects in process: 12

• 2) Number of projects implemented: 31.5– 10 numerical modeling related projects implemented by EMC/NCO– 21.5 projects implemented by NHC– 4 projects accepted but not yet fully implemented by NHC: 4

15

Process

2001 – 2010 Summary

16

Hazardous Weather Testbed

• Jointly managed by NSSL, SPC and WFO Norman• Designed to accelerate the transition of promising new

meteorological insights and technologies into advances in forecasting and warning for hazardous mesoscale weather events throughout the United States

• Composed of two program areas– Experimental Forecast Program focuses on application of

cutting edge numerical weather prediction models to improve severe weather forecasts

• Accelerated Multi-Model Ensemble mesoscale application• Introduced probabilistic severe wx outlooks based on ensembles

– Experimental Warning Program tests research concepts and technology specifically aimed at short-fused warnings of severe convective weather

• Annual NOAA HWT Spring Experiment attracts about 100 researchers and forecasters to Norman each year. 17

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

• Partners: NASA, NOAA, and DoD (USAF &USN)• Mission: To accelerate use of satellite observations in partners’

operational environmental modeling systems• Keys to Success

– Common science priorities, coordinated efforts, shared results– Research based on operational needs – transitionable results– Balance Research Program

• ~ 40 External Projects 2000-2010• ~ 100 Internal Projects 2000-2010

• Notable Achievements– Community Radiative Transfer Model– Assimilation of Advanced Sensor Data

• AIRS, IASI, SSMIS, Winds, COSMIC – Joint OSSE System Development– Strong Outreach Program

• Annual Science Workshop• Joint Workshops – ECMWF, HFIP• Biennial Colloquium for Students 18

Advancing Climate Prediction:The Climate Test Bed

• Jointly established in 2004 by NCEP and NOAA Climate Program Office• Serves as conduit between the operational, academic and research

communities

19

Mission• To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the

climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services

Mission• To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the

climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services

Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R)

• Focus Areas– CFS Improvements– Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems– Climate Forecast Products

• Competitive Grants Program • CTB Seminar Series• CPC/CTB - RISA Program• Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program• Delivered unified statistical post-

processing after CFS version 1

Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R)

• Focus Areas– CFS Improvements– Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems– Climate Forecast Products

• Competitive Grants Program • CTB Seminar Series• CPC/CTB - RISA Program• Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program• Delivered unified statistical post-

processing after CFS version 1

AOLOI

ProposalNCEP Collaborator

R2O

O2R

Improved products and

services

Research OperationsClimate Forecast

ProductsMME

CFS Improvements

• Reanalysis / Reforecasts

• Earth System Modeling

• Tropical oscillations

• Model physics

• Etc.

Res

earc

h T

op

ics

AOLOI

ProposalNCEP Collaborator

R2O

O2R

Improved products and

services

Research OperationsClimate Forecast

ProductsMME

CFS Improvements

• Reanalysis / Reforecasts

• Earth System Modeling

• Tropical oscillations

• Model physics

• Etc.

Res

earc

h T

op

ics

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

HydroMeteorological TestbedHydroMeteorological Testbed

Jointly managed by OAR/ESRL and HPC

Goal: To accelerate the transfer of scientific and technological innovations into operations to enhance HPC products and services

Roles:• Identify and test new techniques

to improve HPC forecasts• Provide training in new techniques to

HPC forecasters• Host visiting forecasters and scientists

Principal Collaborators:• Other NOAA Testbeds (e.g. HWT, JHT)• Forecasters and academia

Description

32

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

HMT-HPC Winter Weather ExperimentHMT-HPC Winter Weather ExperimentJan 10 – Feb 11, 2011Jan 10 – Feb 11, 2011

HRW-NMM ObservedHRW-ARWExperimental NAM

•14 participants (WFOs, SPC, AWC, HPC, EMC, ESRL, and COMET)

•Can high-resolution models improve Day 1 forecasts of precipitation type and amount?

•Can we better quantify and communicate winter weather uncertainty for Day 1-2 forecasts?

OPC thoughts on an Ocean-Coastal Testbed

• Ocean Prediction Center within NOAA family• Traditional role

•Provides operational data and forecast services•Facilitate R2O by linking science and users

• Future Directions• An operational infrastructure to deliver relevant (e.g., clock driven) NOAA services• Enabling a broad range of NOAA applications (e.g., ocean, coastal, ecological) services• Must rely on NOAA (e.g., NOS) R&D resource and expertise for product development

• Potential testbed focus areas•Physical forecasts and guidance

•Storm Surge / Inundation• Wind Current Interactions

• Water quality services• Sea Surface Salinity data applications and assessments• Ocean Color data applications• Enhancement of Harmful Algal Blooms, service delivery

•Ensemble (probabilistic) approaches

23

Forces for Change

Model Region 1

Model Region 2

Global/Regional Model Domain

ESMF-based System

• Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite – SREF– NAEFS– Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP)

• Entering the JPSS era– More rapid access to

hyperspectral data– GPS soundings– Higher resolution surface

radiance data• All models run within ESMF

– Models run concurrently – Hybrid vertical coordinate– Coupled– Spanning all scales

• Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications

Land

Ocean

• Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems• Real-time operations require world’s largest computers• BIOLOGY/CHEMISTRY NOW BEING INCLUDED

Atmosphere

Cryosphere

Model Production Suite

24

25

Ecological Forecast System: Ongoing Prototype Projects

• Chesapeake Bay• Beach/Water Quality• Living Resource Distribution• Dissolved Oxygen Predictions• Harmful Algal Bloom• Disease Pathogen Progression

• Gulf Coast• Gulf of Maine• Great Lakes• California Current

Oysters, Fish, Sea nettles ...

Vibrio...

Satellite Images of Saharan Dust Moving Across Atlantic

Algal Blooms and Dead ZonesBarnacles, Muscles

Ecosystem Prediction

26Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on August 17, 2007

• Automatically generate daily nowcasts and 3-day forecasts of Sea Nettles, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay

• Generated since 2002

• Important for water management and recreational purposes

* Research initiated, developed and results demonstrated by NOS and NESDIS with regional partners and customers

Predicting Sea Nettles in Chesapeake BayCurrent Demonstration Ready for Transition*

• Many of the oceanic consequences of climate change can best be explored with realistic high-resolution global ocean climate models, like those now being developed at GFDL.

• Example below: The roles of ocean transport and microbial decay in determining the impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, explored with a 1/8° global ocean climate model in a collaboration between NOAA/GFDL & NOAA/OR&R.

Simulated Dissolved Oil Concentrations in the Mixed Layer on July 15, 2010

Reference: A. Adcroft, R. Hallberg, J.P. Dunne, B.L. Samuels, J.A. Galt, C.H. Barker and D.Payton (2010): Simulations of underwater plumes of dissolved oil in the Gulf of Mexico, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2010GL044689, in press.

Recent Research Highlight from GFDL: High-resolution Ocean Modeling of DWH

Recent Research Highlight from GFDL: High-resolution Ocean Modeling of DWH

Omitting Microbial Decay with Microbial Decay (6 day Half-life)

• The developer stopped work in December 2008 when NCWCP construction was 80% complete.

• In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to recover “damages” from the Government. This claim was dismissed without prejudice in August 2010. In October 2010, the developer filed an appeal; resolution of this appeal is pending.

• In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County Court. In response, the court appointed a “Receiver” to complete the project. In November 2010, the court approved the Receiver’s plan and granted the receiver permission to resume construction.

• In December 2010, the Receiver petitioned the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit for dismissal of the previous claim filed by Maryland Enterprises. The Federal Court granted the motion on February 9, 2011 and dismissed the claim filed by the developer.

• These actions cleared away all remaining legal obstacles for the restart of work on the NCWCP project.

• GSA’s goal is to reach project completion approximately 12 months after re-start of construction. GSA’s most current estimate for the building’s substantial completion is March 2012 with complete move-in by July 2012.

28

New Building Status

29

Summary

• NCEP is– Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products

from the “Sun to the Sea”– Continually improving collaborative forecasts – especially for

extreme events– Working with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air

and water quality, ecology, space weather…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach

– A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery

– Actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research, transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services with national and international communities

29

Appendix

30

32

Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service

Space Weather Prediction Center

National Hurricane

Center

33

Climate/WeatherLinkage

Week 2 Hazards Assessment

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

CPC

For

ecas

t L

ead

Tim

eF

orec

ast

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

TPCOPCHPC

SWPCAWCSPC

Service Center Perspective

Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8

Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 :

NDFD, Days 4 -7

6-10 Day ForecastM

arit

ime

Mar

itim

eM

arit

ime

Mar

itim

e

Lif

e &

Pro

pert

yL

ife

& P

rope

rty

Lif

e &

Pro

pert

yL

ife

& P

rope

rty

Spa

ce O

pera

tion

sS

pace

Ope

rati

ons

Spa

ce O

pera

tion

sS

pace

Ope

rati

ons

Rec

reat

ion

Rec

reat

ion

Rec

reat

ion

Rec

reat

ion

Eco

syst

emE

cosy

stem

Eco

syst

emE

cosy

stem

Env

iron

men

tE

nvir

onm

ent

Env

iron

men

tE

nvir

onm

ent

Em

erge

ncy

Mgm

t E

mer

genc

y M

gmt

Em

erge

ncy

Mgm

t E

mer

genc

y M

gmt

Agr

icul

ture

Agr

icul

ture

Agr

icul

ture

Agr

icul

ture

Res

ervo

ir C

ontr

olR

eser

voir

Con

trol

Res

ervo

ir C

ontr

olR

eser

voir

Con

trol

Ene

rgy

Pla

nnin

gE

nerg

y P

lann

ing

Ene

rgy

Pla

nnin

gE

nerg

y P

lann

ing

Com

mer

ceC

omm

erce

Com

mer

ceC

omm

erce

Hyd

ropo

wer

Hyd

ropo

wer

Hyd

ropo

wer

Hyd

ropo

wer

Fir

e W

eath

erF

ire

Wea

ther

Fir

e W

eath

erF

ire

Wea

ther

Hea

lth

Hea

lth

Hea

lth

Hea

lth

Avi

atio

nA

viat

ion

Avi

atio

nA

viat

ion

Seasonal Predictions

CDAS/Reanl vs GFSNH/SH 500Hpa day 5

Anomaly Correlation (20-80 N/S)

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1980 1990 2000 2010

YEAR

An

om

aly

Co

rrel

atio

n

NH GFS

SH GFS

NH CDAS/R1

SH CDAS/R1

Record Scores

Record Improvement

35

Attribute Operational Configuration Q1FY11 Configuration

Analysis Resolution 200 km 38 km

Atmosphere model 1995: 200 km/28 levels

Humidity based clouds

100 km/64 levels

Variable CO2

AER SW & LW radiation

Prognostic clouds & liquid water

Retuned mountain blocking

Convective gravity wave drag

Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S

1/3 x 1 deg.

Assim depth 750 m

MOM-4 fully global

¼ x ½ deg.

Assim depth 4737 m

Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation

2-level LSM

No separate land data assim

4 level Noah model

GLDAS driven by obs precip

Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice

Coupling Daily 30 minutes

Data assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background

Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background

Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal)

124/month (week 3-6)

Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q1FY11

36

National Environmental Modeling System FY11; Q3

12 km

4 km

6 km

3 km

3 km

1.5 km

1.33 km

Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) NonHydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid (NMMB) -- Physics retuned for NMMB -- Additional data sets: Windsat, ASCAT, ACARS humidity, NOAA-19 (HIRS and AMSU-A), IASI radiances, AQUA (AMSU-A), GPS (radio occultation)

Parent (12 km) – 84 hrs

Children (6, 4 & 3 km) – 60 hrs

IMET (1.5 & 1.33 km) – 36 hrs

37

EUROSIP Update

• MOU signed in July 2010 to include NCEP as EUROSIP partner (along with ECMWF, Meteo-France, UKMet)

• The EUROSIP hindcast data files have been downloaded to computers VAPOR and STRATUS (in restricted access directories)

• CPC has FY11 milestone to develop and test a seasonal multi-model ensemble forecast tool that combines CFS and EUROSIP

37

Day at which forecast loses useful skill (AC=0.6) N. Hemisphere 500hPa height calendar year means

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

NCEP/GFS

For

ecas

t d

ay

8.02d

39

2010(preliminary)