national centers for environmental prediction: “where america’s climate, weather and ocean...
TRANSCRIPT
National Centers for Environmental Prediction:
“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction
An Overview
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• Defining Climate and Weather Prediction
• The NOAA Prediction Process
• Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction Service
• Future Considerations
Overview
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Defining Climate and Weather Prediction
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Defining Climate and Weather Predictionand Links Between the Two
• Weather • Events Lasting Several Days (Snowstorms, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Hot & Cold
Periods)• Forecasts Made for Specific Parameters - Events• Forecasts Have Skill Out to 7 Days
• Climate• AVERAGE of Weather Events over a Week, Month, Season• Forecasts are for AVERAGE Conditions, Unusual Seasons,
Storminess, Drought,…• Seasonal Forecasts Have Limited Skill, Linked to
Strong Climatic Signals• Linkages
• [*]ENSO and MJO influence on storm tracks (cold season) and hurricanes (warm season)
• [#]Long-term trends in extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, etc.)
Climate
Change
( Trends)
Climate
Change
( Trends)
Weather
(Extreme
Events)
Weather
(Extreme
Events)
Seasonal
Climate
Variability
El Nino, La Nino
Seasonal
Climate
Variability
El Nino, La Nino
*
#
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Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
1 Week1 Week
2 Week2 Week
MonthsMonths
SeasonsSeasons
YearsYears
NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather
Weather Prediction Products
Climate PredictionProducts
Tra
nsp
ort
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ran
spo
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spo
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Fo
reca
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Lea
d T
ime
Fo
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st
Lea
d T
ime
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
Pro
tect
ion
of
Pro
tect
ion
of
Life
& P
rop
ert
yL
ife &
Pro
pe
rty
Pro
tect
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of
Pro
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of
Life
& P
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ife &
Pro
pe
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Sp
ace
S
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ce
Op
era
tion
Op
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Sp
ace
S
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ce
Op
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tion
Op
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tion
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ecr
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ecr
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tion
Eco
syst
em
Eco
syst
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Eco
syst
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Eco
syst
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Sta
te/L
oca
l S
tate
/Lo
cal
Pla
nn
ing
Pla
nn
ing
Sta
te/L
oca
l S
tate
/Lo
cal
Pla
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Pla
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En
viro
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en
tE
nvi
ron
me
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En
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tE
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Flo
od
Miti
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F
loo
d M
itig
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& N
avi
ga
tion
& N
avi
ga
tion
Flo
od
Miti
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tion
F
loo
d M
itig
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& N
avi
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& N
avi
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Ag
ricu
lture
Ag
ricu
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Ag
ricu
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Ag
ricu
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Re
serv
oir
Re
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Co
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serv
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Co
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En
erg
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erg
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rgy
Co
mm
erc
eC
om
me
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Co
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om
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rce
Benefits
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Fire
We
ath
er
Fire
We
ath
er
Fire
We
ath
er
Fire
We
ath
er
He
alth
He
alth
He
alth
He
alth
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The NOAA Prediction Process
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Research, Development and Technology Infusion
Respond & Feedback
Respond & Feedback
The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services
IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center
FeedbackFeedback
DistributeDistribute
LocalOfficesLocal
OfficesCentral
GuidanceCentral
GuidanceProcessProcess
ObserveObserve
Products & Forecast Services
To Serve Diverse Customer Base
e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials,
Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, …
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Need for a Balanced Approach
• Observations – Global– Oceans– Atmosphere– Land – Cryosphere
• Numerical Prediction Models• Computational Power/Communications• Forecasters
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Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction Services
• Mission• What Does NCEP Do?• Model Dependencies: Basis for How Predictions are Made• Computing Capability• GPRA Measures• Long-Term Performance Gains
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NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products
Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.
Space Environment Center
Storm Prediction Center
Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center
Tropical Prediction Center
Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.
Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service
1151 FTE
Total FTE: 426146 Contractors/20 Visitors
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What Does NCEP Do?
Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space WeatherInternational Partnerships in Ensemble ForecastsData Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationSuper Computer, Workstation and Network Operations
“From the Sun to the Sea”
• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts
• Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual
• El Nino – La Nina Forecast
• Weather Forecasts to Day 7
• Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather
• Aviation (Turbulence, Icing)
• High Seas Forecasts and Warnings
GlobalForecast System
*Climate Forecast System
GFDLHurricane
NOAH Land Surface Model
Dispersion
Air Quality
Model Dependencies:Basis for How Predictions are Made
Forecast
Aviation Hourly Forecast
GLOBAL
DATA Ocean
Ocean
Regional Weather Forecast Models
Ocean
Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast
Models
• Cryosphere
• Atmosphere • Ocean
• Land
• Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems• Real-time operations require world’s largest computers
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•Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily•Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec•Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)•3.2x upgrade operational on January 25, 2005•Backup in Fairmont, WV operational January 25, 2005
Computing Capability
Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)
$26.4M/Year $26.4M/Year InvestmentInvestment
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GPRA Scores
Performance Measure
Actual
2002
Actual
2003
Goal/Actual
2004
Goal/Actual
2005
Atlantic Hurricane Track Forecast (48 hours)
124 nm 107 nm 129 nm/94 nm 128 nm/NA
Precipitation Forecast – Day 1 “Threat Score”
.30 .29 .25/.29 .27/.32
U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill (%)
18 17 21/17 18/20
NCEP responsible for 3 NWS GPRA Performance Measures
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Long-Term Performance Gains
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NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors
Advances RelatedTo USWRP
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Impact of Models on Day 1 Precipitation Scores
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.3519
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1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Th
reat
Sco
re
Human(HPC)
ETA
Linear(Human(HPC))Linear (ETA)
HPC Forecasters Add Value
Models provide basis for improvement Correlations
Of HPC with:
Eta: 0.99GFS: 0.74NGM: 0.85
(DOC GPRA goal)
In last 10 years, HPC forecasts have added 2 days of skill
Day 7
Day 5
Day 3
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0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN
Nu
mb
er
of
Mo
nth
ly H
its
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page
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Future Considerations
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Expanding “Environmental” Services
• Air Quality Prediction (with the EPA)
• Ocean Modeling Provide “Backbone” for Regional Coastal Model
• Advancing Prediction of Extreme Events– Hurricane intensity– Snowstorms – Severe Weather– Fire Weather– Floods
• Advancing Two week to One Year Climate Forecasts for El Nino/La Nina Seasonal Predictions with the new Climate Forecast System
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Linkages to Outside Community
• International programs – GEOSS, THORPEX WMO-sponsored climate programs
• “Community Modeling” between research and operational communities to accelerate transition of forecast improvements from research to operations
• Test Beds – e.g., Climate Test Bed – to accelerate transition from research to operations and improve forecast products
• Interagency efforts to use global research and operational global satellite data more effectively (NASA, NOAA, DoD “Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation”)
• World-Class Facility for the research to operations enterprise (NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, move in FY08!)
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NCEP’s Future Location
Current LocationNOAA Science Center
World Weather BuildingCamp Springs
New LocationNOAA Center for
Weather and Climate PredictionUMD Research Park, College Park
(Early FY08)
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NCEP’s Future Location
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
UMD Research Park, College Park(Early FY08)
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Student Employment Programs at NOAA
• Student Educational Experience Program (SEEP)– Student Career Experience Program (SCEP) - SCEP is a program
that provides experience that is directly related to the student’s educational program and career goals. SCEP replaces the Cooperative Education Program (COOP). Agreements are made with an accredited school combined with periods of career-related work in a Federal agency. Students earn federal benefits. Students interested in applying for a SCEP position should contact the Cooperative Education Coordinator at their school.
– Student Temporary Employment Programs (STEP) - Does not have to be in your career field. The position is not to exceed one year with incremental extensions. It is great for career exploration.
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Student Employment Programs at NOAA• NOAA Faculty and Student Intern Research Program administered by the
Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE): – Ten week faculty and student intern research program. Primary focus to provide work
experience to faculty, graduate and undergraduate students under represented in mission-related occupations. FTE neutral.
• NOAA’s Educational Partnership Program– Sponsored by the NOAA Diversity office and funded by Congress. Students are
recruited from Minority Serving Institutes. Salary and graduate school tuition are paid for while attending school.
• For more information on all NOAA programs– http://www.weather.gov/eeo/StudentResearchOpportunities.htm
• National Science Foundation’s Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) Program– NOAA’s NSSL, Storm Prediction Center, Norman WFO, ROC and WDTB host students
through the University of Oklahoma (http://www.caps.ou.edu/reu/)
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NCEP Employment Situation
• Employment situation – FY05– Total of 426 Civil Servants; 146 contractors; 20 visitors– Currently have 21 Student Interns – During the last 12 months
• 32 CS vacancies; 9 SCEP/STEP • Hired 22 contractors & visiting scientists• 12 Summer/Student Program Hires (ORISE, NCAS, NOAA
Educational Partnership Programs, Research Experiences for Undergraduates)
– Projected growth through ’08: 50 – 60 (contractors/visiting scientists/postdocs)
– NCEP HR specialist – [email protected]
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Summary
• NCEP is– Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of
products from the “Sun to the Sea”– Ready to work with NOAA on expanded responsibilities
(e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology,…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach
– A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, service and delivery
– A challenging place to work from both an applied research and operational perspective