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Predicting the Markets:Commodities
Yardeni Research, Inc.
August 17, 2016
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
August 17, 2016 / Predicting the Markets: Commodities www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Commodities 1-9
46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 200
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150
8/16
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE(dollars per barrel)
* Ratio scale. Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly from 1946 to 1984, daily thereafter.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 1.
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201730
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Dec
JulJul
CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION*(2005=100, sa)
* Value added basis.Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.
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Figure 2.
Commodities
Page 1 / August 17, 2016 / Predicting the Markets: Commodities www.yardeni.com
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172
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Jul
CHINA: REAL GDP & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(yearly percent change)
Real GDP (6.7)
Industrial Production* (6.0)
* Value added basis.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 3.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171.82.22.63.03.43.84.24.65.05.45.86.26.67.07.47.88.28.69.09.49.810.210.611.011.4
1.82.22.63.03.43.84.24.65.05.45.86.26.67.07.47.88.28.69.09.49.8
10.210.611.011.4
JunCHINA: CRUDE OIL DEMAND(millions of barrels per day, 12-month average)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 4.
Commodities
Page 2 / August 17, 2016 / Predicting the Markets: Commodities www.yardeni.com
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85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185
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8/19
CHINA REQUIRED RESERVE RATIO(percent)
Large Depository Institutions (17.0)
Small/Medium Depository Institutions (15.0)
Source: People’s Bank of China.
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Figure 5.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
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200
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200
Dec
JulJul
CHINA: M2(trillion yuan)
Source: People’s Bank of China.
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Figure 6.
Commodities
Page 3 / August 17, 2016 / Predicting the Markets: Commodities www.yardeni.com
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
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9000
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11000
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8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
8/16
BALTIC DRY INDEX(1/4/85=100)
Source: The Baltic Exchange.
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Figure 7.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017100
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8/16
8/17
INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX & COPPER PRICE
Copper Futures Price**(cents per pound)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Nearby futures contract.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 8.
Commodities
Page 4 / August 17, 2016 / Predicting the Markets: Commodities www.yardeni.com
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 1920
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BOOM-BUST BAROMETER*(weekly)
8/6
* Weekly average of CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Commodity Research Bureau and US Department of Labor.
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Figure 9.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201750
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8/68/11
YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS
S&P 500Forward Earnings*
YRI Boom-Bust Barometer**
* 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus forecast.** CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.
Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 10.
Commodities
Page 5 / August 17, 2016 / Predicting the Markets: Commodities www.yardeni.com
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20100
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8/16
S&P GSCI SOYBEANS INDEX(December 31, 1969=100)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 11.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201720
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8/16
8/17
BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*
Brent Crude OilFutures Price**(dollars per barrel)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Nearby futures price.
Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 12.
Commodities
Page 6 / August 17, 2016 / Predicting the Markets: Commodities www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017100
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8/17
8/16
FUTURES PRICES*
Brent Crude Futures Price(dollars per barrel)
Copper Futures Price(cents per pound)
* Nearby futures price.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 13.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 193
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8/12
8/12
CRUDE OIL: ACTIVE US RIG COUNT & FIELD PRODUCTION
Rig Count(units)
Production(million barrels per day, nsa)
Source: Baker Hughes Inc. and US Department of Energy.
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Figure 14.
Commodities
Page 7 / August 17, 2016 / Predicting the Markets: Commodities www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 175.5
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Jun
Jun
CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: UNITED STATES & CANADAvs. SAUDI ARABIA(million barrels per day)
Saudi Arabia (10.6)
US + Canada (12.6)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 15.
77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21100
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S&P GSCI GRAIN INDEX(January 5, 1970=100)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 16.
Commodities
Page 8 / August 17, 2016 / Predicting the Markets: Commodities www.yardeni.com
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75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19140
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8/17
GOLD PRICE & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX
Gold Price*(dollars per ounce)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index**(1967=100)
Source: Haver Analytics and Commodity Research Bureau.
* Cash price London gold bullion, PM Fix.** Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
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Figure 17.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18100
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8/16
S&P GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX(nearby futures price)
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.
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com
Figure 18.
Commodities
Page 9 / August 17, 2016 / Predicting the Markets: Commodities www.yardeni.com
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