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Stock Market Indicators:Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
May 23, 2018
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
May 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
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Bulls & Bears 1Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 2Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 3Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 4AAII Sentiment 5Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence 6Bulls & Bears 7Bull & Bears (52-wa) 8-9
Figure 1.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
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Ratio May 8 2.09 May 15 2.40 May 22 2.56
5/22
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS
RatioBull/BearRatio*
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010
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80
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Bulls Bears May 8 43.1 20.6 May 15 46.6 19.4 May 22 49.1 19.2
5/22
PercentageBullsBears
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
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15
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5
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Correction May 8 36.3 May 15 34.0 May 22 31.7
5/22
PercentageCorrection Camp
yardeni.com
Source: Investors Intelligence.
Bulls & Bears
Page 1 / May 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200
600
1000
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1800
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2600
30003400
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600
1000
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1800
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2600
30003400
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*
(ratio scale)
5/22
yarden
i.com
* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 2.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201600
6600
11600
16600
21600
26600
31600
1600
6600
11600
16600
21600
26600
31600
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*
(ratio scale)
5/22
yarden
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* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 3.
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
Page 2 / May 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200
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1000
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1800
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30003400
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S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*
(ratio scale)
5/22
yarden
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* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 4.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201600
6600
11600
16600
21600
26600
31600
1600
6600
11600
16600
21600
26600
31600
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*
(ratio scale)
5/22
yarden
i.com
* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 5.
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
Page 3 / May 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
-20
0
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-40
-20
0
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S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMAvs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE*
5/22
* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or more than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yarden
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Figure 6.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
-20
0
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-40
-20
0
20
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S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMAvs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*
5/22
* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yarden
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Figure 7.
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0
Page 4 / May 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
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Figure 8.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
25
50
75
100
0
25
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75
100
5/16
AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS
AAII Bull Ratio*
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
1
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0
1
2
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5/16
AAII Bull/Bear Ratio
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
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0
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Latest Readings Bulls Bears May 9 33.5 25.5 May 16 36.7 20.6
5/16
Bulls
Bears
* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears.Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
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AAII Sentiment
Page 5 / May 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920
40
60
80
100
120
140
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
5/22
Apr
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)
Consumer ConfidenceExpectations Index
yardeni.com
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.
Figure 9.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920
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.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
5/22
5/12
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)
Consumer Comfort Index
yardeni.com
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg.
Figure 10.
Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence
Page 6 / May 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
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88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
10
15
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25
30
0
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6
5/225/18
S&P 500 FORWARD P/E & INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULL/BEAR RATIO
S&P 500 Forward P/E* (16.2)
Investors IntelligenceBull/Bear Ratio (2.6)
yardeni.com
* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 11.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
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15
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25
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5/12
5/18
S&P 500 FORWARD P/E & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
S&P 500Forward P/E* (16.2)
Weekly ConsumerComfort Index** (54.6)
yardeni.com
* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.** Index plus 100.
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Bloomberg.
Figure 12.
Bulls & Bears
Page 7 / May 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
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.0
.5
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5/22
5/22
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS
Bull/Bear Ratio
52-week moving average (3.4)yardeni.com
Source: Investors Intelligence.
Figure 13.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2040
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90
5/22
5/22
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS + CORRECTION CAMP(percent)
52-week moving average (83.2)
Source: Investors Intelligence.
yardeni.com
Figure 14.
Bull & Bears (52-wa)
Page 8 / May 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010
20
30
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70
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70
5/225/22
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BEARS(percent)
52-week moving average (16.8)
Source: Investors Intelligence.
yardeni.com
Figure 15.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
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8
5/22
5/22
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE (BULLS + CORRECTION) / BEARS
52-week moving average (5.1)
Source: Investors Intelligence.
yardeni.com
Figure 16.
Bull & Bears (52-wa)
Page 9 / May 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com
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