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PRECIS: Facilitating capacity building and climate vulnerability studies and applications in Africa

Presentation to Met Africa group, Reading University – 15.10.2007

Richard Jones

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What is PRECIS and what can it do?

Why regional climate modelling and PRECIS?

Capacity building and collaborations

Climate research and climate scenario development

Awareness raising and impacts research

Future potential

Why regional climate modelling and PRECIS?

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… from a global climate model (GCM) grid to the point of interest.

From global to local climate …

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Regional climate models (RCMs) simulate high resolution weather

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(a) 300km GCM: 1979-83

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(b) 50km RCM: 1979-83

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(c) 25km RCM: 1979-83

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(d) CRU observations: 1961-90

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300km Global Model

25km Regional Model

50km Regional Model

Observed 10km

Winter precipitation over Britain

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RCMs simulate extreme events e.g. tropical cyclones

Global climate model Regional climate model

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The PRECIS programme

PC version of latest Hadley Centre RCM

User interface to set up RCM experiments

Data processing and display software

Boundary conditions

Workshops and training materials

Support

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Outputs from the PRECIS modelling system

PRECIS can provide:climate scenarios for any regionan estimate of uncertainty due to different emissionsan estimate of uncertainty due to different GCMsan estimate of uncertainty due to climate variability

Data available from PRECIScomprehensive for atmosphere and land-surfacegrid-scale box average quantitiesmaximum time resolution one hour

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Current outputs from the PRECIS programme

Detailed climate scenarios using the UKCIP02 methodology for the main developing country regions

Detailed simulation of the recent climate (up to the last 50 years) for many developing country regions

Basic capacity building and technology transfer enabling mitigation and adaptation activities via:

scientific and technical support for applying PRECIS to scenario development and climate research

ad hoc advice on using scenarios in impacts assessments, developing collaborations and research proposals

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PRECIS user network

Status of PRECIS in Africa

Institutes with PRECIS •University of Cape Town Climate Systems Analysis Group (UCT-CSAG), South Africa• ACMAD (African Centre for Meteorological Applications to Development), Niger• Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMA) and universities in Ghana• Makere University, Uganda• Nigerian Meteorological Service and universities in Nigeria• ICPAC, Nairobi

Countries where PRECIS (data) is available• Madagascar (UCT)• Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, Togo (GMA)• Morocco and Algeria• Ethiopia, Eritrea• Cameroon• Zambia, Zimbabwe

Capacity building and collaborations

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Activities are initiated via PRECIS workshops

PRECIS workshops focus on:Background science including uncertaintiesInterpretation of PRECIS results by regional expertsConstruction of regional climate change scenariosBuilding capacity in countries/regions using PRECIS

PRECIS is supplied with:a handbook covering the background science, system description and the uses and limitations of PRECIS a technical manual explaining technical details about the system and how install and to use it

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Current user/network/project status

Over 200 trained users from over 60 countries from workshops in S Africa, UK (x5), Cuba (Belize), Bhutan (India), Brazil (Argentina), Turkey, Ghana, Malaysia, KenyaDeveloping country regional networks across the globeProjects and focal points: Belize/Cuba – CCCCC/INSMENT, India – IITM, China – CAAS, Brazil/Argentina – CPTEC/CIMA, S Africa/Kenya – U Cape Town/ICPAC, SE Asia – MMD/STARTLinks with international agencies (UNFCCC, UNDP-NCSP)Strengthened scientific capacities in developing countries for participation in international projects (AMMA, WAMME)

Climate research and climate scenario development

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925hPa winds over N/central Africa

PRECIS 1961-1990 NCEP reanalysis

1010

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May and August precipitation climatologya

PRECIS 1961-1990 CRU observations

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DJF daily min temperature

DJF daily max temperature

Change in mean minimum

SRES A2: RCM 2080s vs. present-day

Subtropical

Tropical

Equatorial

Subtropical

Tropical

Equatorial

Change in mean maximum

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Rainfall projections over Southern Africa

Change in mean summer (DJF) precipitation over southern Africa for the 2080s relative to baseline for the A2 emission scenario.

Summer rainfall return periods for the 2080s, under the A2 emissions scenario w.r.t present-day 20-year rainfall return values.

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Precipitation estimates over Eastern Africa

NCEP-Reanalysis PRECIS

July rainfall 2080 -B2 July rainfall 2080 -A2

Increased rainfall (1.5mm/day) over the domain for both A2 & B2

More areas in A2 would experience higher rainfall increases

Captures the regional rainfall pattern along the East African steep topography and Red Sea area

Current climates (1961-1999)

Future climates (2080)

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WAMME - http://wamme.geog.ucla.edu/

WAMME - West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation

WAMME Experimental design:

A series of 50km RCM simulations driven by NCEP-R2 reanalysis and HadISST.

Simulations from April 1, 2, 3, and 4 to October 31 for 2000, 2003, 2004, and 2005.

RCM simulations driven by HadAM3 C20C AGCM, provide by the Hadley Centre for climate change