modeling northern south america and caribbean climate ...· caribbean climate using precis and wrf

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  • Guillermo Eduardo ArmentaJos Daniel Pabn

    Weather, Climate, and Society Research GroupDepartment of Geography, National University of Colombia

    Modeling Northern South America and Caribbean climate using PRECIS and WRF for climate variability and change studies

  • The Research Group Weather, Climate and Society

    The main objective of the group is to generate knowledge about weather and climate (variability & change), as such as the relationship climate society. With this purpose the group organizes their activities in the following mainstreams:

    Historical Climatology and history of climate (for the Colombian territory) Atmosphere and climate numerical modeling Interaction between different components of the climate system Socioeconomic impacts of climatic variability Socioeconomic impacts of climate change

    For describing and study the atmosphere and climate in the region numerical models have been tested and used. The output from numerical models running have been applied in different ways to explore the regional features of atmosphere, climate variability and change.

  • Modeling regional atmosphere and climate

    The regional community is demanding knowledge (not only data)about atmospheric processes and climate for different science andapplication purposes. To study the atmosphere and climate, theprimary source on which the analysis is based is the recorded data inmeteorological stations. However, in the region data historicallyprovided by observations and measurements are scarce and havemany failures (few series, data sets are incomplete, limited spatialcoverage, heterogeneity). An optional way to solve this problem is thedata generation using numerical models.

    To attend demand of the regional atmosphere and climate studies on relative high spatial resolution data, numerical models were applied to simulate the regional processes over the northern South America and South Caribbean.

  • Using PRECIS model

    With PRECIS, model data for the 1961-2000 period were generated with ERA40 baseline. Also, datasets for climate IPCC SRES A2 and B2 for 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 periods were generated.

    These data were used for construction for climate change scenarios and climate variability studies.

    Space resolution 25x25Km(128x133 cells).

    21 of over 150 variables were selected for studies.

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    PRECIS

    OBSERVAD

    Datasets with u and v (m/s), HR (%), T(C), andPrecipitation (mm) were generated and validated.Satisfactory results were obtained for Eastern plains,Eastern Cordillera, Magdalena valley and Caribbeansector.

    Data were used in calculating the 1961-1990reference period in climate scenarios constructing.Currently, data still are used in applied studies ofmeso- and local climate, and to analyze climatevariability.

    1961-2000 period reconstruction

  • Without Sulphures

    With Sulphures

    CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE REGION USING PRECIS

    2070-2100 A2 and B2 SRES IPCC projections

    TEMPERATURA TEMPERATURA

    TEMPERATURA TEMPERATURA

    HUM. RELATIVA

    HUM. RELATIVA

    HUM. RELATIVA

    HUM. RELATIVA

    PRECIPITACION PRECIPITACION

    PRECIPITACIONPRECIPITACION

  • Work with WRF

    Work with WRF model v3.2.1 in climate mode.

    History reconstruction with CFSR to generate the high resolution reanalysis (1981-2010).

    A single domain of 10km of horizontal resolution.

    Outputs every 3 hours. The results are used in many works

    (Magister thesis, hydrologic studies, storms, extreme events, etc.)

  • Validation of the data generated by the WRF-CFSR modeling was made using observational data from climate stations located in different places of the region.

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    Precipitacin Estacin 4404501

    0100200300400500600

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    Precipitacin Estacin 4404503

    0100200300400

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    Precipitacin Estacin 2105502

    Observado Modelado

    Validating the WRF-CFSR high resolution reanalysis

  • Using WRF-CFSR high resolution reanalysis

    Data obtained with the simulations have been used in multiple studies. Some of them are: Effects of ENSO in the extreme

    precipitacion events over Sabana de Bogot.

    Analysis of the Fhn effect generated by Eastern Cordillera over the upper Magdalena River Valley (Huila and Tolima)

    Effects of land-cover change and climate change in water resources for Bogot region.

  • Future actions

    Use WRF with CMIP5 models to simulate 1981-2010 period. Validate the results of these simulations with WRF-

    CFSR high resolution reanalysis and observational data.

    Generate the regional climate change scenarios using CMIP5 RCPs.

  • Future actions

    In 2014, we expect to produce future climate data using PRECIS v2 model with CMIP5 models using historical data from them. Validate these results with WRF-CFSR high

    resolution reanalysis and observational data. Determine which models are the best representing

    the climatic variability for Colombia. Generate Representative Concentration Pathways

    (RCP) with CMIP5 models using PRECIS v2.

  • THANKS

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