应用应用 PRECISPRECIS 生成用户友好型气候情景数据生成用户友好型气候情景数据Generating User-friendly Climate ScenGenerating User-friendly Climate Scen

arios with PRECISarios with PRECIS

Yinlong XU Yinlong XU （许 吟隆）中国农业科学院（许 吟隆）中国农业科学院Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDInstitute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IED

A), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)A), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)Beijing, ChinaBeijing, China

Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Tel & Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Tel & Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 E-mail: E-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cnxuyl@ami.ac.cn

3-5 March, 2010

提 纲 提 纲 OutlineOutline

工具和方法 工具和方法 Model and MethodologyModel and Methodology 气候变化情景结果分析 气候变化情景结果分析 Some Analysed ResuSome Analysed Resu

lts on Climate Change Scenarioslts on Climate Change Scenarios 情景数据的订正 情景数据的订正 Correction of Climate ScenCorrection of Climate Scen

arios outputsarios outputs 气候情景的验证和应用 气候情景的验证和应用 Validation of the CorrValidation of the Corr

ected Climate Scenariosected Climate Scenarios 应用举例 应用举例 Examples of ApplicationsExamples of Applications 存在问题及未来工作展望 存在问题及未来工作展望 Problems and ProsProblems and Pros

pects for Future Workpects for Future Work

降尺度分析示意图降尺度分析示意图 /Downscaling/Downscaling

GCMs

Horizontal resolution:

hundreds km

ImpactsModels

Downscaling

Localdetails

A demo for RCM downscalingA demo for RCM downscalingHadAM3H

PRECIS

降尺度分析示意图 A demo for RCM downscaling

PRECISPRECIS 模型模型 /What is PRECIS?/What is PRECIS? PRECIS—Providing Regional Climates for ImpacPRECIS—Providing Regional Climates for Impac

ts Studiests Studies Purpose 1: to develop the regional-level SRES clPurpose 1: to develop the regional-level SRES cl

imate scenarios over the worldimate scenarios over the world Purpose 2: to provide the datasets for the impacPurpose 2: to provide the datasets for the impac

ts assessments of climate change at the regionats assessments of climate change at the regional-levell-level

目的一、发展区域水平的、高分辨目的一、发展区域水平的、高分辨 率的率的 SRESSRES 气候情景气候情景 目的二、为评价模型提供高分辨率目的二、为评价模型提供高分辨率 的的 SRESSRES 气候情景气候情景

运行界面 /PRECIS Interface

The climate change scThe climate change scenarios in China are enarios in China are developed based on Sdeveloped based on SRES socio-economic RES socio-economic assumptions of SRESassumptions of SRES

SRES: IPCC 2000, Special Report on Emission ScenariosIPCC 在 2000 年出版排放情景特别报告（ Special Report for Emission Scenarios ）。 SRES 由四个情景系列（ family ）、六个情景组（ group ）、总共 40 个情景（ scenario ）组成。

PRECISPRECIS 区域区域 /Domain of PRECIS/Domain of PRECIS

PRECIS PRECIS 作业现状作业现状 /PRECIS Job Status/PRECIS Job Status NCEP re-analysis data:NCEP re-analysis data: 1979-20031979-2003 ECMWF re-analysis data:ECMWF re-analysis data: 1957-20011957-2001 ECMWF re-analysis data:ECMWF re-analysis data: 1979-19931979-1993 HadCM3HadCM3 （英国）（英国） Baseline (1961-1990):Baseline (1961-1990): No1No1 No2 No3No2 No3 A2 (2071-2100):A2 (2071-2100): No1 No2 No3No1 No2 No3 B2 (2071-2100) :B2 (2071-2100) : No1No1 A1B (1961-2100):A1B (1961-2100): No1 No1 No2 No3No2 No3 ECHAM4ECHAM4 （德国）（德国） A2 (1961-2100):A2 (1961-2100): No1No1 B2 (1961-2100) :B2 (1961-2100) : No1No1

最高气温最高气温 /Maximum Temperature/Maximum Temperature—— 拉萨拉萨 /Lhasa/Lhasa 、成都、成都 /Chengdu/Chengdu

辐射辐射 Solar Radiation—Solar Radiation— 西安西安 /Xi’an/Xi’an 、郑州、郑州 /Zhengzho/Zhengzhouu

B2B2 情景下中国区域气候变化响应的统计分析情景下中国区域气候变化响应的统计分析—— 740740 个台站—最高个台站—最高 // 低气温低气温

Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenario—Maximum/minimum temperatureB2 scenario—Maximum/minimum temperature

B2B2 情景下中国区域气候变化响应的统计分析情景下中国区域气候变化响应的统计分析—— 740740 个台站—降水个台站—降水

Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenario----precipitationscenario----precipitation

A2A2 情景下气候情景下气候变化的响应变化的响应 CliCliamte Change amte Change Responses ovResponses over whole China er whole China under A2 scenunder A2 scenario (2080s vsario (2080s vs

1961-1990)1961-1990)

Temperature precipitationTemperature precipitation

Annual AnnualAnnual Annual

Winter WinterWinter Winter

Summer SummerSummer Summer

Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1气候极端事件的指标—之一气候极端事件的指标—之一

CriteriaCriteria DefinitionDefinition

HDHD Daily maximum temperature > 35 ℃Daily maximum temperature > 35 ℃

FD FD Daily minimum temperature <0 ℃Daily minimum temperature <0 ℃

WDWD

the number consecutive days with daily the number consecutive days with daily precipitation > 1mm precipitation > 1mm

R20mm R20mm

extreme precipitation events with daily extreme precipitation events with daily precipitation amounts greater than or equal to precipitation amounts greater than or equal to 20 mm 20 mm

CriteriaCriteria DefinitionDefinition

RX5day RX5day maximum precipitation amount for the 5-day interval maximum precipitation amount for the 5-day interval

SDII SDII

ratio of the daily precipitation amount for wet days (daily ratio of the daily precipitation amount for wet days (daily precipitation amounts greater than or equal to 1 mm) to the precipitation amounts greater than or equal to 1 mm) to the number of wet day number of wet day

CDD CDD

CWDCWD

Consecutive dry days is calculated base on the number Consecutive dry days is calculated base on the number consecutive days with daily precipitation below 1mm consecutive days with daily precipitation below 1mm

Consecutive dry days is calculated base on the number Consecutive dry days is calculated base on the number consecutive days with daily precipitation greater 1mmconsecutive days with daily precipitation greater 1mm

TX95 TX95

put daily maximum temperature of one year in a increase put daily maximum temperature of one year in a increase order, then TX95 is defined as the 95 percentage of the order, then TX95 is defined as the 95 percentage of the maximum temperature of this year maximum temperature of this year

Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1气候极端事件的指标—之二气候极端事件的指标—之二

1 2 3-4 5-8 9-12 13-16 17-24 25-32 33-40 41-590

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Freq

uncy

Duration(days)

K

(a)

0

1

2 1 2 3-4 5-8 9-16 17-32 33-64 65-96 97-128129-299

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

Fre

quen

cy

Duration (days)(b)

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

K

0 1 2 3-4 5-8 9-16 17-23 24-32 33-39 40-48-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

Fre

qu

en

cy

Duration(days)

(c)

mm

/day

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8-12 13-24 25-36

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

Fre

quen

cy

Duration(days)

(d)

0

2

4

中国区域未来 A2 情景下，连续高温日数 (HD)(a) 、霜冻日数 (FD)(b) 、干期 (CDD)(c)和湿日数 (WD)(d) 持续期的频率变化分布。折线是每一个持续期对应的平均的最大 (a) 、最小温度 (b) 和降水量 (d) 的变化。 /Changes of Extreme Climate Events of HD, FD, CDD, and WD under A2 Scenario. 2080s vs 1961-1990

HD HD

FD

CDD WD

中国区域 2080s 年平均 1. R20mm, 2. 最大 5 日降水量 (RX5dayRX5day), 3. 简单日降水强度 (SSDII)DII) 相对于 1961 ～ 1990 年气候态的变化 ( 单位： %) a. A2 情景 , b. B2 情景

(b1)

(a1)

(b2)

(a2)

(b3)

(a3)

Changes of Extreme Climate Events of R20mm, RX5day under A2, B2 Scenarios2080s vs 1961-1990

(b1)

(a1)

(b2)

(a2)

(b3)

(a3)

中国区域 2080s 年平均 1. 最长连续干期 (CDD), 2. 最长连续湿期 (CWD), 3. 湿日数 (WD) 相对于 1961 ～ 1990 年气候态的变化 ( 单位： %) a. A2 情景 , b.

B2 情景

Changes of Extreme Climate Events of CDD, CWD, and WD under A2, B2 Scenarios2080s vs 1961-1990

高温热浪发生频率和持续时间高温热浪发生频率和持续时间Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990

Duration Frequent

高温热浪发生频率和持续时间高温热浪发生频率和持续时间Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990

数据应用数据应用 (( 一一 ))Application of the climate scenarios -1Application of the climate scenarios -1

observationcurrentsituation

futuresituation

assessment

BaselineFuture

observation impa

ct m

odel

baselinecurrentsituation

futuresituation

assessment

impa

ct m

odel

future

corrected

corrected

数据应用数据应用 (( 二二 ))Application of the climate scenarios-2Application of the climate scenarios-2

Baselineclimate scenario

数据订正方法数据订正方法How to correct the scenarios dataHow to correct the scenarios data

Observation

Baseline

Futureclimate scenario

comparison

数据订正结果比较数据订正结果比较Comparison of the corrected and non-corrected resultsComparison of the corrected and non-corrected results

图 3-1 1979 ～ 1993 年宁夏地区年极端温度值的年际变化 (a, b ：年最高温度的极端高、低值； b, d ：年最低温度的极端高、低值，单位：℃ )

(a)

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993(a)年份

(℃

)最

高温

度的

极端

高值

观测 模拟 订正

(b)

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993(a)年份

(℃

)最

高温

度的

极端

低值

观测 模拟 订正

(c)

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993(a)年份

(℃

)最

低温

度的

极端

高值

观测 模拟 订正

(d)

-24

-22

-20

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993(a)年份

(℃

)最

低温

度的

极端

低值

观测 模拟 订正

图 1979 ～ 1993 年 15 年均宁夏地区日较差的空间分布 (1 ：观测； 2 ：模拟； 3 ：订正，单位：℃； d/a)

Rice sites

Wheat sites

Maize

Rice,wheat

Maize,wheat

Rice,wheat ,maize

KM

GY

SX

CSNC

HK

NNGZ

FJ

HLJ

JLXJ

QH

NMG

XZ

DH

The distribution of agricultural crop stations selected in this study in China24 wheat experiment stations

19 rice experiment stations

13 maize experiment stations

成熟期

120

140

160

180

200

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

年份

日数

观测ERAERA- m

产量

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

年份

(kg/

ha)

产量

观测ERAERA- m

成熟期

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

年份

日数

观测ERA

ERA- m

产量

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

年份

(kg/

ha)

产量

观测ERAERA- m

山西太谷

（冬小麦）

Winter wheat

青海湟源

（春小麦）

Spring wheat

R = 0.9894

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

实测成熟期( d)( a)

模拟

成熟

期(d

)

R = 0.7479

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

0 3000 6000 9000 12000

实测产量( kg/ hm2)( b)

模拟

产量

(kg/

hm2 ) R = 0.6438

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

实测千粒重(g)(c)

模拟

千粒

重(g

)

R = 0.8009

0

10000

20000

30000

0 10000 20000 30000

实测粒数(粒/m2)

(d)

模拟

粒数

( 粒/m

2)

R = 0.995

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

实测成熟期( d)( e)

模拟

成熟

期(d

)

R = 0.8301

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

0 3000 6000 9000 12000

实测产量(kg/hm2)

(f)

模拟

产量

(kg/

hm2) R = 0.8259

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

实测千粒重(g)(g)

模拟

千粒

重(g

)

R = 0.8591

0

10000

20000

30000

0 10000 20000 30000

实测粒数(粒/m2)

(h)

模拟

粒数

( 粒/m

2)

综 合 验 证 /Validation

（ a ） ~ （ d ） : 订正前模拟值与实测值比较 /No Correction

（ e ） ~ （ h ）：订正后模拟值与实测值比较

数据应用方法数据应用方法Data application methodData application method

观 测 值observation

基准 Baseline未 来 情 景

Futureclimate scenario

农业影响评估流程图农业影响评估流程图 //ImpactImpactss AssessmentAssessmentss of Climate Change on of Climate Change on ChinChin

ese ese AgricultureAgriculture

PRECISDaily

Tmax/min, Pre, Srad

CropVarieties

SoilData

ManagementData

Cropmodels

YieldChanges,

etc

应用应用 PRECISPRECIS 格点情景数据进行影响评估流程图格点情景数据进行影响评估流程图Flowchart of Impacts Assessments with PRECIS Gridded ScenariosFlowchart of Impacts Assessments with PRECIS Gridded Scenarios

GIS technology

气候变化情景

中国边界图（ scale 1:1,000,000 ）栅格图（ 50×50km ）

土地利用图

土壤数据图

品种分布

种植措施

模型运行

栅格产量结果

确认

作物影响评价作物影响评价CO2 肥效作用（小麦 -A2 ） With CO2 fertilization（ Wheat-A2 ）

不同水分条件（玉米— CO2 ） Different water conditions（ maize—with CO2 fertilization ）

不同气候情景（水稻 -- 灌溉） Different scenarios（ Rice--irrigation ）

无 有

灌溉雨养

A2 B2

熊伟、居辉博士提供

极端气候事件对生态系统的影响 Extreme events have extreme impacts on natural ecosystems in China

The impacts of extreme events on natural ecosystems in China

under B2 scenario

The impacts of extreme events on natural ecosystems in China

under A2 scenario

对径流的影响 /Changes of runoff in China

黄河流域的干旱 / 长江流域的洪涝都将加剧A2

B2

Similar to A2 scenario, but amplitude is not so large as A2 scenario

The drought would be enhanced along the Yellow River

While the potential flooding risk along the Yangtze River would increase under SRES A2 scenario

存在问题及未来工作展望存在问题及未来工作展望 Problems and future workProblems and future work Just PRECIS-generated scenarios used Just PRECIS-generated scenarios used 仅仅 PRECISPRECIS 情景应情景应

用于项目影响评估研究用于项目影响评估研究 Problems: uncertainties Problems: uncertainties 问题问题 :: 不确定性分析不够不确定性分析不够

To generate more climate scenariosTo generate more climate scenarios 产生更多情景数据产生更多情景数据 To produce much more user-friendly datasetsTo produce much more user-friendly datasets 生成用户友生成用户友

好的数据库好的数据库

What’s the next-step work? What’s the next-step work? 下一步的工作下一步的工作 :: More GCMs More GCMs 更多的更多的 GCMGCM 数据数据 More RCMs-PRECIS, RegCM3 More RCMs-PRECIS, RegCM3 更多的更多的 RCMRCM 数据数据 More scenarios: more jobs for SRES A1BMore scenarios: more jobs for SRES A1B more RCPs scenariosmore RCPs scenarios Resolution: 50kmResolution: 50km25km25km 增加分辨率增加分辨率 Daily-levelDaily-levelhourly levelhourly level