ppr 2008:03 081023
DESCRIPTION
PPR 2008:03 081023. Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bonds Per cent, quarterly averages. Source: The Riksbank. Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
PPR 2008:03081023
Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bondsPer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110
1
2
3
4
5
6
790%75%50%Reporate
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1
0
1
2
3
4
590%75%50%CPI
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
690%75%50%GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 4. Difference between interbank rates and government bond rates (TED
spread)Basis points
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
jan/07 apr/07 jul/07 okt/07 jan/08 apr/08 jul/08 okt/080
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500Euro area
USA
United Kingdom
Sweden
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Figure 5. Policy rates and three-month interbank rates in the USA and Sweden
Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Fed fundsThree-month interbank rate, USARepo rateThree-month interbank rate, Sweden
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Figure 6. Stock market movementsIndex, 04.01.99 = 100
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0850
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250Euro area (EuroStoxx)
Sweden (OMXS)
USA (S&P 500)
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 7. GDP abroadTCW-weighted, annual percentage points
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sources: National sources and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 8. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel, future price
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Oil price, outcome
Futures, MPU September 2008
Futures, 2008-10-16
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
Figure 9. Monetary policy in the euro area and the USA
Per cent
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
06 07 08 09 10 11 121.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0RefiRefi 2008-10-16Refi 2008-09-04Fed fundsFed funds 2008-10-16Fed funds 2008-09-04
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Figure 10. GDP for the United States and the euro area
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8USA
Euro area
Sources: Eurostat, Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Riksbank
Figure 11. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised
terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7MPR 2008:2
MPU September 2008
MPR 2008:3
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 12. Exchange rate movementsSEK per euro
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 087.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 13. TCW exchange rateIndex, 18.11.92=100
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
136TCW-index
TCW-forecast MPUSeptember 2008TCW-forecast MPR2008:3
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 14. ExportQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised
terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20MPR 2008:3
MPU September 2008
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 15. Household’s disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Consumption (left scale)Disposable income (left scale)Saving ratio (right scale)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 16. Fixed gross investmentQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised
terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15MPR 2008:3
MPU September 2008
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 17. General government net lending
Per cent of GDP
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 18. Number of hours workedIndex, quarter 1 2000 =100, seasonally-adjusted data
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 1196
98
100
102
104
106
108MPR 2008:3
MPU September 2008
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 19. Labour force and number of employed
Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 103800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000Labour force 15-74 yearLabour force 16-64 yearEmployed 15-74 yearEmployed 16-64 year
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 20. UnemployedPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 100
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Unemployment 16-64 year
Unemployment 15-74 year
MPR 2008:3
MPU September 2008
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 21. Actual and trend productivity growth in the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
MPU September 2008
MPR 2008:3
HP-trend
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 22. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9Unit labour costsProductivityLabour costs per hour
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 23. Employment rateEmployment as a percentage of the population,16-64
year, seasonally-adjusted data
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 1070
72
74
76
78
80
82
84Employment rate
MPR 2008:3
MPU September 2008
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 24. Estimated gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6GDP
Hours worked
Employment
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 25. CPI, CPIF and CPIXAnnual percentage change
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0CPI
CPIF
CPIX
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 26. CPI Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised
terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 27. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110
1
2
3
4
5
6MPR October 2008
MPU September 2008
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 28. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0Real repo rate
MPR 2008:3
MPU September 2008
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 29. CPIAnnual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
690%
75%
50%
MPU September 2008
MPR 2008:3
Figure 30. The CPIF, outcome and forecasts on different occasions
Annual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1
0
1
2
3
4
5MPR 2008:3
MPU September 2008
Source: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote: Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast
Table 1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
CPI 2.2 3.7 (3.9) 2.1 (3.2) 1.6 (2.0) 2.0 CPIX 1.2 2.6 (2.9) 1.6 (2.6) 1.3 (1.7) 1.5 CPIX excl. energy 1.5 1.8 (1.9) 1.6 (2.0) 1.5 (1.9) 1.6 CPIF 1.5 2.8 (3.1) 2.0 (2.9) 1.6 (2.0) 1.8
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Table 2. Inflation, 12-month
average Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11
CPI 3.5 3.0 (3.9) 1.6 (2.3) 1.8 (2.0) 2.1
CPIX 2.0 2.3 (3.1) 1.4 (2.0) 1.4 (1.7) 1.5
CPIX excl. energy 2.0 1.6 (1.7) 1.6 (2.0) 1.5 (1.9) 1.6
CPIF 2.4 2.4 (3.2) 1.8 (2.3) 1.7 (2.0) 1.8
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Table 3. Key figures, annual averageAnnual percentage change unless otherwise specified
Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP, world 5.0 (4.9) 3.5 (3.9) 2.9 (3.8) 3.6 (4.4) 4.0 Crude oil price Brent, USD/barrel 73 105 (114) 92 (119) 96 (119) 98 Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 125.2 125.5 (123.4) 126.1 (122.2) 123.7 (121.9) 123.0 Repo rate, per cent 3.5 4.2 (4.4) 3.3 (4.6) 3.3 (4.3) 3.6 General government net lending, percentage of GDP 3.5 (3.5) 2.7 (2.9) 0.7 (1.2) -0.1 (0.6) 0.2 GDP 2.7 (2.7) 1.2 (1.4) 0.1 (0.8) 2.5 (2.6) 2.8 GDP, calender-adjusted 2.9 (2.9) 0.9 (1.1) 0.2 (0.9) 2.2 (2.3) 2.8 No. of employed, 15-74 years 2.5 (2.5) 1.2 (1.4) -0.9 (-0.6) -0.9 (-0.3) -0.9 Unemployement* 6.1 (6.1) 6.2 (6.2) 6.9 (6.8) 7.6 (6.9) 7.4 Hourly wage in economy as a whole 3.3 (3.3) 4.2 (4.2) 3.7 (3.6) 3.5 (3.7) 3.8
* Percentage of labor force
Table 4. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly averages
Source: The Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Q 2 2008 Q 3 2008 Q 4 2008 Q 4 2009 Q 4 2010 Q 4 2011
Repo rate 4.25 4.54 3.9 (4.7) 3.2 (4.5) 3.4 (4.3) 3.8
Figure 31. GDPAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1
0
1
2
3
4
5Intensified effects of the credit crisis
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 32. Production gap (GDP)Percentage deviation from the HP trend
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Intensified effects of the credit crisis
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 33. Labour market gapPercentage deviation from the HP trend
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Intensified effects ofthe credit crisis
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 34. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Main scenario
Intensified effects of the credit crisis
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 35. Real interest ratePer cent
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0Main scenario
Intensified effects of the credit crisis
Source: the Riksbank
Figure 36. CPIAnnual percentage change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Intensified effects of the credit crisis
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 37. TCW exchange rateIndex
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11122
124
126
128
130
132
134Weaker krona
Main scenario
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 38. Production gap (GDP)Percentage deviation from the HP trend
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0Weaker krona
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 39. Labour market gapPercentage deviation from the HP trend
-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0
Main scenarioWeaker krona
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 40. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Weaker krona
Main scenario
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 41. CPIAnnual percentage change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Weaker krona
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 42. Real interest ratePer cent
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0Main scenario
Weaker krona
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 43. CPIAnnual percentage change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Continued high inflation
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 44. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Continued high inflation
Main scenario
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Source: The Riksbank
Figure 45. Real interest ratePer cent, quarterly averages
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0Main scenario
Continued high inflation
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 46. Stock market movements and implied volatility
Index, 1 January 1990=1 and per cent
Sources: Standard & Poor's and Chicago Board Options Exchange
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080
8
16
24
32
40
48
56
64
72
80
Stock market index (left scale)
Implied volatility (right scale)
Figure 47. Two-year interest ratesPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
jan/07 apr/07 jul/07 okt/07 jan/08 apr/08 jul/08 okt/080
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Sweden
Euro area
USA
United Kingdom
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote: Government bonds with approximately 2 years left to maturity.
Figure. 48 Basis-spread and TED-spread in SwedenPer cent
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
jan/07 apr/07 jul/07 okt/07 jan/08 apr/08 jul/08 okt/083
4
4
5
5
6
6Treasury bills
Interbank rate
Expected repo rate
Basis-spread
TED-spread
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 49. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden according to money market
participantsPer cent
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
06 07 08 09 10 111.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Repo rate
Forward rate 2008-10-16
Survey, Prospera averages, 24 September 2008
Survey, Prospera averages, 4 June 2008
Forward rate 2008-09-04
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank
Figure 50. Exchange ratesSEK per Euro and dollar
5
6
7
8
9
10
jan/06 jul/06 jan/07 jul/07 jan/08 jul/085
6
7
8
9
10
SEK/EUR
SEK/USD
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 51. Interest rates in SwedenPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
jan/07 apr/07 jul/07 okt/07 jan/08 apr/08 jul/08 okt/080
1
2
3
4
5
6
7Interbank rateMortgages – SBABMortgages – averagesRepo rate
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, SBAB, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 52. House prices and total lending to Swedish households
Annual percentage change
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Lending to households
House prices
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 53. Money supply Annual percentage change
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-5
0
5
10
15
20
25M0M2M3
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 54. Employment and private consumption in the United States
Annual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Private consumption
Employment
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of commerce
Figure 55. Economic indicators in the euro area
Index, December 2005 = 100, respective annual percentage change
86
90
94
98
102
106
110
114
118
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10European Commission Economic Sentiment (left scale)
OECD Composite Lending Indicators (right scale)
Sources: European Commission and OECD
Figure 56. KonsumentpriserCPI
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080
1
2
3
4
5
6USAUKEuro area
Sources: Bureau of Labour Statistics, Eurostat and Office for National Statistics
Figure 57. CPI excluding energy and foodAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080
1
2
3
4USAOECDEuro area
Source: OECD
Figure 58. HICP for the Euro areaAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080
1
2
3
4
5Excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco
Excluding energy and unprocessed food
Total
Source: Eurostat
Figure 59. Confidence indicators in the business sector
Seasonally adjusted net figures, monthly observations
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Manufacturing industry
Retail trade
Private service industries
Construction industry
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 60. Purchasing managers’ index and National Institute of Economic Research’s
confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry
Seasonally-adjusted index and net figures
30
34
38
42
46
50
54
58
62
66
70
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-30
-24
-18
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
24
30Purchasing managers’ index (left scale)
Confidence indicator (right scale)
Sources: Swedbank and National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 61. Retail sales and household consumption
Annual percentage change
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Households’ total consumptionHouseholds’ consumption of retail goodsRetail sales
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 62. Household financial wealth and saving
Per cent of disposable income
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-180
-120
-60
0
60
120
180
Saving, excl. saving in occupational pensions (left scale)
Financial balance, excl. saving in occupational pensions (right scale)
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 63. Households expectations for the futureNet figures
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60The Swedish economyOwn financesLabour market
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 64. Gross fixed capital formation Annual percentage change
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Housing
Business sector excluding housing
Public authorities
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 65. Foreign trade with goods and fixed prices
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15ImportExport
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Three-month moving averages.
Figure 66. Number of employedThousands, seasonally-adjusted data
4100
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 114100
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700Employed 15-74 years
Employed 16-64 years
MPR 2008:3
MPU September 2008
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 67. Hiring plans and number of employed in the business sector
Balance and annual percentage change
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Hiring plans according to NIER's quarterly business tendency survey (left scale)Number of employed according to National Accounts (right scale)
Sources: National Institute of Economics research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 68. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage of labour
Per cent, seasonally-adjusted data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 080
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Manufacturing Industry
Retail trade
Private sector industries
Business sector
Construction sector
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 69. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 100
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24New vacant jobs
Unfilled vacant jobs
Redundancy notices (right scale)
Source: Swedish Public Employment Service
Figure 70. Capacity utilisation in industryPer cent, seasonally-adjusted data
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 1075
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation
NIER, current capacity utilisation
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 71. Full utilisation of companies' resources, private service industries
Proportion of companies
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
03 04 05 06 07 080
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 72. Wages in the construction, service and manufacturing sectors
Annual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080
1
2
3
4
5
6Industry
Service sectors
Construction sectors
Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank.Note. Three-month moving average.
Figure 73. WagesAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110
1
2
3
4
5
6
7Business sectorPublic sector
Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank
Figure 74. Actual inflation (CPI) and households' and companies' expectations
of inflation one year aheadAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-1
0
1
2
3
4
5CPI
Households
Companies
Source: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 75. The difference between nominal and real five-year rates (break-even
inflation)Percentage points
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Sources: The Riksbank
Figure 76. Different agents' expectation of inflation one, two and five years ahead
Annual percentage change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.51 year
2 years
5 years
Source: Prospera Research AB
Figure 77. Different agents' expectation of inflation two years ahead
Annual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
1
2
3
4Purchasing managersSocial partners
Money market agents
Source: Prospera Research AB
Figure 78. Food, energy and mortgage costs in the CPI
Annual percentage change
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Mortgage costs (4,5 %)Energy (8,9 %)Food (16,8 %)
Source: Statistics SwedenNote: The weight of CPI of the respective components is given in brackets.
Figure 79. Commodity pricesUSD, index
100
150
200
250
300
350
04 05 06 07 08100
150
200
250
300
350Food
Metals
Other agricultural products
Total
Source: The Economist
Figure 80. Different measures of underlying inflationAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-1
0
1
2
3
4
5CPIXTRIM85CPIX excluding energyCPIX excluding energy and foodUND24
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure R1. Financial balance, forecastsPer cent of GDP
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4MPR 2008:3
NIER August 2008
BP2009
BVAR
Sources: Ministry of Finance, National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank
Figure R2. Slower price increasesBalance
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
sep/07 dec/07 maj/08 sep/08-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Source: The Riksbank
Table A1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
CPI 2.2 3.7 (3.9) 2.1 (3.2) 1.6 (2.0) 2.0 CPIX 1.2 2.6 (2.9) 1.6 (2.6) 1.3 (1.7) 1.5 CPIX excl. energy 1.5 1.8 (1.9) 1.6 (2.0) 1.5 (1.9) 1.6 CPIF 1.5 2.8 (3.1) 2.0 (2.9) 1.6 (2.0) 1.8
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Table A2. Inflation, 12-month average Annual percentage change
Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11
CPI 3.5 3.0 (3.9) 1.6 (2.3) 1.8 (2.0) 2.1
CPIX 2.0 2.3 (3.1) 1.4 (2.0) 1.4 (1.7) 1.5
CPIX excl. energy 2.0 1.6 (1.7) 1.6 (2.0) 1.5 (1.9) 1.6
CPIF 2.4 2.4 (3.2) 1.8 (2.3) 1.7 (2.0) 1.8
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Table A3. Summary of financial forecasts, annual averagePer cent, unless otherwise specified
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Repo rate 3.5 4.2 (4.4) 3.3 (4.6) 3.3 (4.3) 3.6 10-year rate 4.2 4.0 (4.2) 4.0 (4.6) 4.5 (4.8) 4.8 Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 125.2 125.5 (123.4) 126.1 (122.2) 123.7 (121.9) 123.0 General government net lending* 3.5 (3.5) 2.7 (2.9) 0.7 (1.2) -0.1 (0.6) 0.2
* Per cent of GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Table A4. International conditionsAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
GDP 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
USA 2.0 (2.0) 1.5 (1.5) 0.3 (1.6) 2.3 (3.0) 3.0
Japan 2.0 (2.0) 0.6 (0.9) 0.3 (1.0) 1.3 (1.6) 1.6
Euro area 2.6 (2.6) 1.1 (1.3) 0.1 (0.9) 1.4 (1.9) 2.0
OECD 2.6 (2.6) 1.5 (1.7) 0.6 (1.6) 2.1 (2.6) 2.6
TCW-weighted 2.8 (2.7) 1.4 (1.6) 0.3 (1.2) 1.6 (2.1) 2.2
World 5.0 (4.9) 3.6 (3.9) 2.9 (3.8) 3.7 (4.4) 4.0
CPI 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
USA 2.9 4.4 (4.1) 1.9 (2.7) 2.0 (2.2) 2.2
Japan 0.0 1.6 (1.4) 0.8 (1.0) 0.5 (0.5) 0.5
Euro area (HICP) 2.1 3.4 (3.7) 2.0 (2.7) 2.1 (2.3) 2.1
OECD 2.4 3.9 (3.6) 2.2 (2.6) 2.1 (2.2) 2.1
TCW-weighted 2.0 3.5 (3.6) 2.0 (2.5) 2.0 (2.1) 2.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Crude oil price, USD/barrel Brent 73 105 (114) 92 (119) 96 (119) 98
Swedish export market growth 4.0 (4.0) 2.2 (3.9) 1.5 (3.5) 3.8 (5.9) 6.1
Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Table A5. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Private consumption 3.0 (3.0) 1.7 (1.8) 1.0 (1.7) 2.4 (3.0) 3.0
Public consumption 1.1 (1.1) 0.3 (-0.7) 0.5 (0.7) 1.3 (1.2) 1.0
Gross fixed capital formation 8.0 (8.0) 3.5 (3.6) -0.5 (1.2) 1.8 (2.1) 2.3
Inventory investment* 0.7 (0.7) 0.0 (0.1) -0.2 (-0.3) 0.1 (0.1) 0.1
Exports 6.0 (6.0) 4.0 (5.0) 1.2 (2.9) 4.4 (5.5) 5.9
Imports 9.6 (9.6) 5.2 (6.0) 1.6 (3.6) 3.9 (5.5) 5.5
GDP 2.7 (2.7) 1.2 (1.4) 0.1 (0.8) 2.5 (2.6) 2.8
GDP, calender-adjusted 2.9 (2.9) 0.9 (1.1) 0.2 (0.9) 2.2 (2.3) 2.8
*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Table A6. Production and employmentAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Population, aged 16-64 0.9 (0.9) 0.8 (0.8) 0.4 (0.4) 0.2 (0.2) 0.0 GDP, calendar-adjusted 2.9 (2.9) 0.9 (1.1) 0.2 (0.9) 2.2 (2.3) 2.8 Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted 3.5 (3.5) 1.7 (1.6) -1.2 (-0.6) -0.6 (-0.3) 0.5 Employed aged 15-74 2.5 (2.5) 1.2 (1.4) -0.9 (-0.6) -0.9 (-0.3) 0.2 Labour force aged 15-74 1.5 (1.5) 1.2 (1.4) -0.1 (0.1) -0.2 (-0.2) 0.0
Unemployment* 6.1 (6.1) 6.2 (6.2) 6.9 (6.8) 7.6 (6.9) 7.4 Labour market programmes* 1.8 (1.8) 1.6 (1.6) 1.9 (1.8) 1.9 (1.9) 1.9
* Per cent of labour force
Source: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Table A7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, calendar-adjusted data
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Hourly wage, NM 3.3 (3.3) 4.2 (4.2) 3.7 (3.6) 3.5 (3.7) 3.8
Hourly wage, NA 3.3 (3.3) 4.6 (4.4) 3.9 (3.9) 3.8 (4.0) 4.0
Employer’s contributions* 0.4 (0.4) -1.3 (-1.2) -0.1 (0.7) 0.1 (0.1) 0.1
Hourly labour cost, NA 3.7 (3.7) 3.4 (3.2) 3.8 (4.6) 3.9 (4.0) 4.1
Productivity -0.6 (-0.6) -0.7 (-0.5) 1.4 (1.5) 2.8 (2.6) 2.3
Unit labour cost 4.3 (4.3) 4.1 (3.7) 2.3 (3.0) 1.1 (1.4) 1.8
* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Table A8. Scenario with intensified effects of the credit crisis, annual averageAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 CPI 2.2 3.7 (3.7) 1.8 (2.1) 1.5 (1.6) 2.0 (2.0) GDP, calendar-adjusted 2.9 0.8 (0.9) -0.5 (0.2) 2.0 (2.2) 2.8 (2.8) Repo rate, per cent 3.5 4.1 (4.2) 2.2 (3.3) 2.3 (3.3) 2.9 (3.6) Real repo rate, per cent 1.1 1.7 (1.8) 0.8 (1.7) 0.4 (1.4) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100
125.2 125.6 (125.5)
127.4 (126.1)
124.9 (123.7)
123.7 (123.0)
TCW-weighted interest rate, per cent 4.3 3.9 (4.0) 2.5 (3.0) 2.7 (3.5) 3.6 (4.2) TCW- weighted CPI 2.0 3.5 (3.5) 1.8 (2.0) 1.7 (2.0) 1.9 (2.0) TCW- weighted GDP 2.8 1.3 (1.4) -0.5 (0.3) 1.1 (1.6) 2.1 (2.2)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Table A9. Scenario with weaker krona, annual averageAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 CPI 2.2 3.7 (3.7) 2.3 (2.1) 2.1 (1.6) 2.3 (2.0) GDP, calendar-adjusted 2.9 0.9 (0.9) 0.4 (0.2) 2.4 (2.2) 2.9 (2.8) Repo rate, per cent 3.5 4.2 (4.2) 3.5 (3.3) 3.6 (3.3) 4.0 (3.6) Real repo rate, per cent 1.1 1.7 (1.8) 1.4 (1.7) 1.3 (1.4) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100
125.2 125.5 (125.5)
129.1 (126.1)
128.2 (123.7)
128.0 (123.0)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Table A10. Scenario with continued high inflation, annual averageAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 CPI 2.2 3.8 (3.7) 2.9 (2.1) 2.0 (1.6) 1.8 (2.0) GDP, calendar-adjusted 2.9 0.9 (0.9) 0.2 (0.2) 2.2 (2.2) 3.0 (2.8) Repo rate, per cent 3.5 4.2 (4.2) 3.7 (3.3) 3.7 (3.3) 3.8 (3.6) Real repo rate, per cent 1.1 1.6 (1.8) 1.7 (1.7) 1.9 (1.4) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 125.2
125.6 (125.5)
126.6 (126.1)
124.1 (123.7)
123.0 (123.0)
TCW-weighted interest rate, per cent 4.3 4.0 (4.0) 3.5 (3.0) 3.9 (3.5) 4.5 (4.2) TCW- weighted CPI 2.0 3.6 (3.5) 2.8 (2.0) 2.4 (2.0) 2.1 (2.0) TCW- weighted GDP 2.8 1.4 (1.4) 0.3 (0.3) 1.6 (1.6) 2.1 (2.2)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.