population aging and sustainability of health care systems in latin america and the caribbean 10 may...
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Population Aging and Sustainability of Health Care Systems in Latin Americaand the Caribbean
10 May 2012, San José
Tim Miller
Population Affairs OfficerComisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe
Contact: [email protected]
Entering a new era
Entering a new era
OLD WORLD
Child abundant societies
NEW WORLD
Seniorabundant societies
OLD WORLD:
All societies were child abundant in 1950.
0 - 19
20-39
40-59
60+
LargestAge
Group
NEW WORLD:
Global dominance of senior abundant societies in 2070.
0 - 19
20-39
40-59
60+
LargestAge
Group
Entering a new era
OLD WORLD
YouthfulEconomies
NEW WORLD
AgedEconomies
Definition: An AGED ECONOMY is one in which consumption by older persons exceeds consumption by children and youth.
1980: No Aged Economies in the World
2010: 23 Aged Economies
OLD
WO
RLD
2040: 89 Aged Economies
2070: 155 Aged Economies
NEW
WO
RLD
Entering a new era
OLD WORLD
Declining demographic pressures on health care
systems
NEW WORLD
Increasing demographic pressures on health care
systems
Demographic pressures on health systems at lowest level in decades.
OLD WORLD NEW WORLD
The Future of Health Care Systems
The biggest difference between health care systems
in wealthy countries and those in poorer countries is
how they treat older persons.
As countries become wealthier, growing use of health care services among older persons.
The Future of Health Care Systems
The main cause of future fiscal problems is likely to be
health care,not pensions.
More fiscal pressure from health care than pensions in Latin America and in European Union.
1.5
3.4 3.2
2.3
The Future of Health Care Systems
Entering a new era:Aged Health Care Systems
Enormous Transformation to Confront the Growing Epidemic of Cancer,
Heart Disease, Diabetes, etc.
Two Recommendations for Monitoring and Projections
1. Comprehensive Monitoring Efforts: Effects of population aging will be widespread. Not just health care, but all
parts of economy. Not just government, but all institutions. Not just a few countries, but almost all.
One such monitoring project is the National Transfer Account project led in the region by CELADE with funding support from Canada’s IDRC. Currently 10 countries in the region are participating with 31 countries throughout the world.
Two Recommendations for Monitoring and Projections
2. Projections: Governments should implement long-run projections of their budgets to understand and
adapt to population aging.
Thanks!
Tim Miller
Population Affairs OfficerComisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe
Contact: [email protected]