opportunities for latin america?. the war on terror u.s.-imposed rules of geopolitical game...
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OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?
THE WAR ON TERROR
U.S.-imposed rules of geopolitical gameCo-existence with geo-economic gameLatin America:
“spectator” role in geopolitics active participation in geo-economic game
PREVAILING CONDITIONS
Ideological divisions: left, right, centerPrevalence of democratic discourseFocus on “strategic options”Unavailable alternatives:
Bolivarian dream of collective unity Rule of international law, organizations Social revolution
Thus: geo-economic option (with U.S. focused on geopolitics)
GE0-ECONOMICS 1. TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
Vicente Fox (Mexico) Hopes for immigration reform NAFTA constraints Opposition throughout Latin America
Comrades in the War on Terror (Geopolitics too) Colombia Guatemala
The FTA Club Chile [special case] Central America + DR Peru Colombia Panama
GEO-ECONOMICS 2. SUBREGIONAL HEGEMONY
Brazil (Lula + Dilma) Grandeza brasileira Role in Haiti Resistance to FTAA
Venezuela (Chávez) ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas) International assistance programs Alliances with Cuba and “pink tide” countries Denunciations of Bush and USA Resistance to FTAA (r.i.p.)
GEO-ECONOMICS 3. THIRD WORLD SOLIDARITY
Brazil (Lula) WTO Group of 20+ (a.k.a. 21) G3, G5
Venezuela (Chávez) Non-Aligned Movement UN Security Council Petroleum exporters (including Iran)
GEO-ECONOMICS 4. BEYOND THE HEMISPHERE
Europe Divisions over Iraq Concern about EU future FTAs with Mexico, Chile Distancing from/by Spain
Asia Withdrawal of Japan Eruption of “China fever” PRC “strategic partnerships” with Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina,
Mexico; “cooperative partnership” with Chile, “friendly and cooperative relations” with Cuba
Iran? Really?
ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS
Exports to China, 2008: Argentina 9.0% Brazil 12.4% Chile 4.8% Mexico 0.7% Cuba 18.4%
Liberation from IMF: Argentina 2005 ($9.8 bn) Brazil 2005 ($15.5 bn) IMF “relegated to sidelines”
U.S. SHARES OF TRADE, 2000-2010
Imports __2000__ ___2010___ Argentina 19.1 13.8 Brazil 23.1 15.0 Chile 17.8 17.0 Mexico 72.0 60.6 Venezuela 33.5 26.6
Exports __2000__ ___2010___ Argentina 12.0 5.4 Brazil 22.4 9.6 Chile 16.8 10.4 Mexico 88.7 73.5 Venezuela 51.9 38.7
POLITICAL DIMENSIONS
Distaste for GWB and U.S. policiesResuscitation of CubaRegional organizations w/o USA:
Rio Group (1986, 23 members) Latin American Summit on Integration and Development (2008,
33 members) CELAC (2010, 33 members) Ibero-American Summits (1991) MERCOSUR (1991, 4 members plus) UNASUR (2005)
BILATERAL DIMENSIONS
Argentina: “a distant relationship”Brazil: “getting better all the time”Chile: “cooperative friendship”Colombia: “strategic partners or uncertain allies?”
THE BENEFITS OF INATTENTION?