maziwa zaidi: from impact pathways to theory of change
TRANSCRIPT
Maziwa Zaidi:From Impact Pathways (“What to achieve”)
to
Theory of Change (“How, Why and So What along the way”)
Amos Omore
Theory of Change Validation workshop
March 31, 2015 Dar es Salaam
THE
EFFECTS
THE CAUSES Poor access to veterinary
services
Poor quality feeds / feeding
practices
Poor disease control
programs
Low capacity to extend technical knowledge and
information
WHOLE VALUE CHAIN WITH DOWNSTREAM EMPHASIS
INPUTS & SERVICES PRODUCTION MARKETING CONSUMPTION
1. Low productivity
2. Poor access to production and market inputs and services
Poor nutrition Food insecurity / hidden hungerPovertyTHE IMPACT
Inconsistent access to water/
seasonality
1. Cattle keepers’ have low capacity to innovate, manage risk, reduce vulnerability, increase incomes, and ensure food security.
2. The sector is starved of appropriate credit facilities that can finance acquisition of basic inputs and services.
3. Low investment in productivity improving innovations has perpetuated a low-input low-output vicious cycle.
INTERVENTION
AREAS
small-scale nature of the production systems
Low genetic
potential
Problem statement
Lack of appropriate organizational approaches
few and poorly linked BDS providers
Low access inputs and services
ASSOCIATED
WITH
More milk, income, assets and better health & Nutrition
Vision: an inclusive and sustainable development of the dairy value chain.
Long term goals
How to get there (impact pathways)
Increased milk production
Increased household income from dairy production
Increased number of farmers selling dairy products to organized markets
PR
OG
RA
M O
UT
PU
T
Healthier dairy animals; decreased morbidity and mortality
CH
AN
GE
IN P
RA
CTI
CE
ATT
ITU
DE
AN
D K
NO
WLE
DG
E
IMM
EDIA
TE
OU
TCO
ME
S
Sustainable DMHs
Innovative Dairy Marketing Hub (DMH) models
INTE
RM
EDIA
TE
OU
TCO
ME
S
Innovative
contractual
arrangement
s (farmers,
traders, and
processors)
Farmers organize in groups
Increased number of improved dairy cattle (with high milk potential)
Better access to good practices and information
Feasible
collective action
models for
farmers’
increased access
to inputs and
services
INTE
RV
ENTI
ON
S Build partnership to strengthen extension delivery, access to inputs, and marketing services
Facilitate farmers’ group formation around bundled input and service provision and built their capacity
Facilitate contract negotiations between traders, farmers, and processors
Develop the capacity of traders associations on market information, quality assurance and business management
Innovative arrangements for accessing financial and credit services
Increased household asset ownership
Farmers are linked to MFIs, SACCOs, and Banks through farmer groups
Better trained and ethical input suppliers
Farmers access check-off system for marketing and access to services and inputs
Traders and service providers operate under legal associations/groups
Improved dairy animals
Facilitate
the creation
of village
banks and
other credit
access
institutions
Reduced risk of adopting new technologies
and practices
Service providers get
organized under various
platforms for better
service provision
Improved household nutrition and health status
Increased household income from dairy production
PR
OG
RA
M O
UT
PU
T
CH
AN
GE
IN
PR
AC
TIC
E A
TT
ITU
DE
AN
D
KN
OW
LE
DG
E
IMM
ED
IAT
E
OU
TC
OM
ES
Evidence of tested best dairy practices
INT
ER
ME
DIA
TE
OU
TC
OM
ES
Farmers use best dairy
practices
Decreased outbreaks of animal diseases
INT
ER
VE
NT
ION
S
Research on sustainable benefits to influence policy; provide evidence for scaling out and scaling up; co-create technologies and do action research; use diagnostic studies to design research
Develop the capacity of traders associations in market information, quality assurance, and business management
Rational pig marketing options
Increased household asset ownership
"Next users" and researchers
adapt better mechanisms of
communicating evidence of best
dairy practices
Improved or same unchanged status of natural resources
Lower incidences of zoonotic diseases
Healthier dairy animals
Link farmers’ groups to apex bodies including Tanzania Dairy Forum
Strategies for engaging policy and regulatory bodies
Sustainable farmer groups and organizations
More localized and incentive based regulatory standards
Improved household nutrition and health status
Increased household income from dairy production
PR
OG
RA
M O
UT
PU
T
CH
AN
GE
IN
PR
AC
TIC
E A
TT
ITU
DE
AN
D
KN
OW
LE
DG
E
IMM
ED
IAT
E
OU
TC
OM
ES
Evidence of tested best dairy practices
INT
ER
ME
DIA
TE
OU
TC
OM
ES
Farmers use best dairy
practices
Decreased outbreaks of animal diseases
INT
ER
VE
NT
ION
S
Research on sustainable benefits to influence policy; provide evidence for scaling out and scaling up; co-create technologies and do action research; use diagnostic studies to design research
Develop the capacity of traders associations in market information, quality assurance, and business management
Rational pig marketing options
Increased household asset ownership
"Next users" and researchers
adapt better mechanisms of
communicating evidence of best
dairy practices
Improved or same unchanged status of natural resources
Lower incidences of zoonotic diseases
Healthier dairy animals
Link farmers’ groups to apex bodies including Tanzania Dairy Forum
Strategies for engaging policy and regulatory bodies
Sustainable farmer groups and organizations
More localized and incentive based regulatory standards
Impact pathways for “Maziwa Zaidi” developed
Context of Maziwa Zaidi
Institutional innovations
Technology platforms and services
Systems Assessments
Increased consumption of quality products
Institutional innovations for value chain transformation
Increased milk production
Increased household income from dairy production
Increased number of farmers selling dairy products to organized markets
PRO
GRA
M O
UTP
UT
Healthier dairy animals; decreased morbidity and mortality
CHA
NG
E IN
PRA
CTIC
E A
TTIT
UD
E A
ND
KN
OW
LED
GE
IMM
EDIA
TE
OU
TCO
MES
Sustainable DMHs
Innovative Dairy Marketing Hub (DMH) models
INTE
RMED
IATE
OU
TCO
MES
Innovative
contractual
arrangemen
ts (farmers,
traders, and
processors)
Farmers organize in groups
Increased number of improved dairy cattle (with high milk potential)
Better access to good practices and information
Feasible
collective action
models for
farmers’
increased access
to inputs and
services
INTE
RVEN
TIO
NS
Build partnership to strengthen extension delivery, access to inputs, and marketing services
Facilitate farmers’ group formation around bundled input and service provision and built their capacity
Facilitate contract negotiations between traders, farmers, and processors
Develop the capacity of traders associations on market information, quality assurance and business management
Innovative arrangements for accessing financial and credit services
Increased household asset ownership
Farmers are linked to MFIs, SACCOs, and Banks through farmer groups
Better trained and ethical input suppliers
Farmers access check-off system for marketing and access to services and inputs
Traders and service providers operate under legal associations/groups
Improved dairy animals
Facilitate
the
creation of
village
banks and
other credit
access
institutions
Reduced risk of adopting new
technologies and practices
Service providers get
organized under various
platforms for better
service provision
• Sustainable DMH is at the centreof what we want to achieve in the impact pathways
Business model for growing dairy market hubs in Tanzania
Illustration of a dairy market hub for provision of inputs and services on pay-off arrangements where there no without collective bulking and marketing
The inputs: Feed, health, genetics
• Women dominate the short value chains but need to ensure continued or greater inclusiveness as the VC upgrades
Technology platforms and services for value chain transformation
Systems assessments to support value chain transformation
Improved household nutrition and health status
Increased household income from dairy production
PR
OG
RA
M O
UTP
UT
C
HA
NG
E IN
PR
AC
TIC
E A
TTIT
UD
E A
ND
KN
OW
LED
GE
IMM
EDIA
TE
OU
TC
OM
ES
Evidence of tested best dairy practices
INTE
RM
EDIA
TE
OU
TC
OM
ES
Farmers use best dairy
practices
Decreased outbreaks of animal diseases
IN
TER
VEN
TIO
NS Provide evidence for scaling out
and scaling up; co-create technologies and do action research; use diagnostic studies to design research
Develop the capacity of traders associations in market information, quality assurance, and business management
Effective dairy marketing options
Increased household asset ownership
"Next users" and researchers
adapt better mechanisms of
communicating evidence of best
dairy practices
Unchanged status of natural resources
Improved quality and of dairy products lower incidences of zoonotic diseases
Healthier dairy animals
Build capacity of actors in advocacy and lobbying skills and link farmers’ groups to apex bodies including Tanzania Dairy Forum
Strategies for engaging policy and regulatory bodies
Sustainable farmer groups and organizations
More localized and incentive based regulatory standards
Improved quality and of dairy products
and lower incidences of zoonotic
diseases
Rational dairy
marketing
options
Better environment for pro-poor dairy development
The DDF lobbies for required policy shift
Policy makers are aware of the competitiveness of the sector
Innovative strategies to increase consumption of quality dairy products
Improved household nutrition and health status
Farmers diversify farm products; processors diversify products
PR
OG
RA
M O
UTP
UT
CH
AN
GE
IN P
RA
CTI
CE
ATT
ITU
DE
AN
D K
NO
WLE
DG
E
IMM
EDIA
TE
OU
TCO
MES
Feasible collective
action models for
farmer's increased
access to inputs
and services
INTE
RM
EDIA
TE
OU
TCO
MES
Self-regulation of farmers and traders for better quality dairy products; Farmer
Increased
per capita
consumption
of dairy
products
Processors establish contractual relationships with DMH to enforce standards and ensure stable supply of dairy products
INTE
RV
ENTI
ON
S
Facilitate farmers’ organizations around marketing, inputs and services bulking
Link farmer groups with apex bodies including Tanzania Dairy Board
Farmers ensure increased intra-household access to dairy products
Lower incidences of zoonotic diseases Dairy products
constitute a good percentage of household diets
Households ensure intra-
household equitable distribution
of benefits from dairy production
More localized and incentive based regulatory standards
Efficient milk marketing
strategies
Research to understand the
drivers of milk consumption
in Tanzania
Milk campaign
strategies tested and
implemented
High quality and same dairy products
Underlying key assumption from the IPs
• Poor and smallholder farmers will continue to receive priority in development programs– donors’ commitments to development support will be sustained
– government’s commitment to creation of incentives for increasing investment in agriculture and expansion of the private sector will be sustained.
• ToC will help us to act on this assumption, so that
• By 2017 we can host a large conference with potential investors to talk about “What works well, where and how”
Private Public
o Milk traders
o Processors,
o BDS providers (e.g., agrovets)
o Producer organizations
o Government (e.g., in public
extension service reform)
o Donors
o Philanthropy
The Big Change by 2018
Private and public investors replicate our pre-commercial hubs approach in inclusive ways
• Sustainable dairy market hubs is at the centre of what we want to achieve
• The ToC is supposed to help us define how, why and so what(causal pathways) to the what
Enhancers/hindr
ances to the BIG
CHANGE
By 2017, what
changes have to
happen to
realize the BIG
CHANGE
By 2015, , what
changes have to
happen to
realize the BIG
CHANGE
What do have to
do now and with
whom