Overview of Theory of Change Approach

Michael Kidoido

Maziwa Zaidi review & planning meeting

31 March – 1 April 2015 at Giraffe Ocean View Hotel, Dar es Salaam,

Tanzania

Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

The reality

Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

What is a Theory of Change?

As it says!

• An ongoing process of reflection to explore change and how it happens – and what that means for the part we play in a particular context, sector and/or with a group of people:

– It considers a programme or project within a wider analysis of how change comes about.

– It makes us explain our understanding of change – but also challenges us to explore it further.

• The focus is on what we think will change for whom, not on what we plan to do.

Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

In other words…

• Thinking about real changes for real people

• Applying common sense systematically

Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

The ToC process – for planning and accountability…

1. Research and describe how you

think changes happens in the

contexts that you are working in

2. Identify your specific role in contributing to these changes

3. Develop a causal pathway illustrating

how your efforts will contribute to identified changes 4. Identify the

assumptions that will need to be

tested through life of programme

5. Continuously monitor change and

your change pathway; and test

assumptions

6. Critically reflect on your pathway and your role in the light of emerging changes (expected and unexpected)

…which works at all levels Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

Developing our Change Pathway

• This relates directly to your understanding of how

change happens (Step 1)

• It describes in detail your unique ways of understanding

and addressing these issues, including:

– Who you work with

– How you work with them

– To achieve or influence what changes

– The assumptions that you have made in designing this pathway

Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

INTERMEDIATE CHANGESFOR DIFFERENT TARGET GROUPS(Your indirect sphere of influence)

The Elements – building blocks

IMMEDIATE CHANGES

FOR DFFERENT TARGET GROUPS

(your direct sphere of influence)

Strategy:

What you do with key

stakeholders

Take up and involvement by these stakeholder groups

Changes for target groups they are working with e.g. knowledge, attitudes , skills, systems, relationships

... Supporting deeper changes for different target groups in e.g. livelihoods practices , policies, allocations, operations

Adapted from

Morton, 2012,

Montague, 2011 Isabel Vogel and

Maureen O'Flynn

Informed by context: Socio-economic, political, Technological factors

Existing policies,practices, beliefs

Actors, networks in research, policy and practice, power

Capacity of targetgroups to respond

Receptiveness of context

Organizations,resources,systems, skills

Vision

DEEPER LASTING

CHANGES FOR

BENEFICIARIES

Key questions :

•How do changes link and support

each other?

•Who/what else helps or hinders

progress?

Important things to note

ToC is a process and an approach, not a tool

Theories of Change come in all shapes, no ‘right’ version

Ownership and buy in from all key stakeholdersis essential

You need energy and appetite to develop ToC – choose your moment wisely!

Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

The relationship between ToC and Accountability

1.Research and describe how you think changes happens in the

contexts that you are working in

2. Identify your specific role in

contributing to these changes

3. Develop a causal pathway illustrating how your efforts will

contribute to identified changes 4. Identify the

assumptions that will need to be tested

through life of programme

5. Continuously monitor change and

your change pathway; and test assumptions

6. Critically reflect on your pathway and your role in the light of emerging changes (expected and unexpected)

What? How?

Why?

So what?

Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

Using ToC with log frames can help with this tension!

Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

The How

Is turned into a diagram

Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

Then elements were data collection framework

Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn

Change no. 1: Research Collaborators effectively include program issues into theiractivities and budget planning

Assumptions set I: Our program activities are in line with research collaborator’sactivities

Areas of Enquiry Evaluation/Learningquestions

Indicators

Targeteddatasources

Datacollectionmethods

Who will collectthe data?

Two notes of caution…

Theories of change do not provide magic solutions!!1. They need time and resources – you need to

choose your moments for embarking on this journey wisely

1. If you don’t take participation and ownership seriously, your ToC ( at whatever level) becomes yet another paper exercise.... which adds nothing to organisational learning

Some perceived benefits

• Builds common understanding of how and why you do what you do

• Strengthens the clarity, direction, effectiveness and focus of programmes

• Provides a framework for review, learning and re-design.

• Improves partnership

• Supports organisational development

• Helps people communicate what they do so it can be more easily understood by others

• Empowers people to become more active and involved in programme design and implementation

Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn