Atlantic Council - Mohammad Zaidi

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From Here to There Pathways to a Sustainable Future

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<ul><li> 1. FROM HERE TO THERE Pathways Toward a Sustainable Future Mohammad Zaidi 9 September 2013 </li> <li> 2. Sustainability and the Role of Business: A collaborative effort involving 29 global companies representing 14 industries </li> <li> 3. Megatrends: growth, inertia, opportunities 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1950 1975 Life expectancy (years) 2000 2025 2050 The growing world population is increasingly urban The global middle class is rapidly expanding 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Population in millions Life expectancy by region 1950-2050 People, worldwide, are living longer 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 3 0 2 4 6 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6 4 0 0 m illio n 1 .2 b illio n Percent of global population Source: UNDP, OECD, World Bank, WBCSD 0 C hinaU nited States India Brazil M exico R ussia Indonesia Japan U nited Kingdom G erm any 10,000 20,000 30,000 GDP 2006 US$ bn 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Global economic power is shifting Top 10 economies by GDP in 2050 </li> <li> 4. Supply and demand: risks &amp; challanges Business As Usual Will Require Resources of 2.3 Planets by 2050 1970 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GtCO2 eq GHG emissions by regions Greenhouse gas emissions keep rising 0 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Millions of people 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 People living in areas of water stress by level of stress Environmental degradation jeopardizes peoples quality of life and economy An aging population will stress healthcare &amp; income distribution World population by age (millions) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 World average biocapacity per person in 2006 World average biocapacity per person in 1961 UNDP threshold for high human development High human development within the Earths limits 2 4 6 8 10 12 Ecological Footprint (global hectares per person) United Nations Human Development Index African countries Asian countries European countries Latin American and Caribbean countries North American countries Oceanian countries Source: Global Footprint Network, UNDP, OECD, World Bank, WBCSD </li> <li> 5. The Vision for 2050 </li> <li> 6. "Must Haves" for a Sustainable 2050 - A selected set of 40 measures for ten key sectors Doubling of Agricultural output without increasing the amount of land or water used. Cropland efficiency for cereal production to double in Africa. Halting deforestation. 75% of fiber for paper and packaging to be supplied by planted forests ( as opposed to natural forests). Freshwater supply to double in Asia-pacific and Africa. Halving carbon emissions worldwide ( from 2005 baseline) by 2050 with GHG emissions peaking in 2020. This leads to containing average global temperature rise to 2 deg C. Delivering a 5X improvement in use of resources and materials. Incorporating the cost of externalities , starting with carbon, ecosystem services and water. Education to shift fertility rates to around replacement levels. </li> <li> 7. Pathways to Vision: 350 Milestones on 10 Tracks: energy, buildings, materials, mobility, economy, people governance, forests, agriculture, ecosystems </li> <li> 8. Sustainability at Alcoa PRODUCTION of Aluminum: GHG emissions reduction 44% since 1990 Inert anode in development zero CO2 emissions from Smelter Carbon capture technology. Waste products for water purification. Continuous casting of sheet with 60-70 % less footprint. APPLICATIONS of Aluminum: Light weighting of transport sector ( 6-10% fuel efficiency): From Airplanes to Cars to Trucks Note: 10% fuel efficiency enables 75 billion gallons of annual fuel savings and 600 million MT of CO2 reduction across all transportation segments, globally) Buildings : Eco-clean and smog reduction. 100,000 sq.ft faade = 80 trees Consumer Electronics: Aesthetics and thermal management RECYCLING of Aluminum: Cans, Cars, Building products, consumer electronics Infinitely recyclable: 75% of all aluminum produced in past 120 years is still in use. Uses 95% less energy and produces 95% less GHG than primary aluminum. </li> <li> 9. Pathways to a Sustainable Future 1. Proliferation of Best Practices and Efficiencies. 1. Affordable Transformations and their global deployment Generally driven by top-down organizational structures </li> <li> 10. Energy Water Forestry Metals Health &amp; education Agriculture &amp; Food Annual value in 2050 at constant 2008 prices US$ trillion 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Sustainability related business opportunity : From $ 1 trillion / yr. in 2020 to $6.2 trillion/ yr. in 2050 Source: PwC estimates drawing on data from IEA, OECD and the World Bank </li> <li> 11. Afina Braemar Portfolio Lighting Efficiency / Demand Response Renewable Fuels &amp; Chemicals Storage Fossil Fuels Other </li> <li> 12. Conclusions 1. Global sustainability challenges will become the key strategic drivers for business and innovation. 2. Technology, Business innovation and global collaborations can create pathways to a sustainable world. 3. Business must work closely with governments and society worldwide to transform markets, prices and competition. 4. Vision 2050 lays out the pathways and outlines vast new business opportunities - US$ 6 - 10 trillion annually. We can achieve the Vision: 9 billion people living well, within the means of 1 planet </li> <li> 13. Hierarchy vs. Network Global Connectivity Low cost Sensing and Big data Computing Affordable Trans- formations Gaming Crowd- Funding </li> <li> 14. Pathways to a Sustainable Future 1. Proliferation of Best Practices and Efficiencies. 1. Affordable Transformations and their global deployment 2. Self Organization </li> <li> 15. The Power of Self-Organization </li> </ul>