latin america as partner of the german economy america as partner of the german economy when do you...

Thomas Krieger ‌ Financial Institutions – Latin America ‌‌‌ Frankfurt / 09.08.2011

Latin America as partner of the German EconomyWhen do you go Latam ?

1Thomas Krieger ‌ Financial Institutions – Latin America ‌‌‌ Frankfurt / 09.08.2011

Agenda

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Final Remarks

Macroeconomics

Do you know ...

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Agenda

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Final Remarks

Macroeconomics

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Lateinamerikainitiativen der deutschen Bundesregierun g:

2010: Does this still come true ?

1995: „Wertegemeinschaft“


+42434392Ecuador

+5.859 (+480%)27.885 (+49%)22.026 (+25%)Lateinamerika gesamt

+12916344Kuba

-13709722Venezuela

+3,254

+265

+197

+995

+ 631

Saldo für Deutschland

6,9393,685Mexico

10,4019,406Brasilien

1,8121,615Chile

1,200935Kolumbien

2,4001,769Argentinien

ExporteImporteImporte aus ... / Exporte nach...

in Mio. EUR

* Quellen: Lateinamerikaverein; Stat. Bundesamt

Lateinamerika Wirtschaftsbeziehungen zu Deutschland (in Mio. Euro , Gesamtjahr 2010)*


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Macroeconomics

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Key parameters you need to pay attention to:

GDP per capita

Size of the local economy

Size of potential marketfor German products

Level of qualification of local labour force

Political situation


0.1020.1745,20033.31 (15.2%)6.5Paraguay

2.41.814,700596 (7.5%)42Argentina

53.6476.537,60010,090 (9.9%)1,400China

0.434

9.4

21.9

German imports from ...

in billion EUR* (2010)

0.231

10.4

26.3

German exports to ...


12,727

9,881

10,739

GDP per capita

USD***

4.433585Latin America

2,024 (7.5%)193Brazil

47.99 (8.5%)

GDP**In billion USD (growth in %,

2010)

3.3Uruguay

million inhabitants

(2010)

Macroeconomic comparison (Mercosur)

Sources: * LAV Hamburg; GTAI (Germany Trade & Invest); IMF; CIA World Factbook; exchange rate dd. 31.12.2010: 1 EUR = 1,3252 USD; ** calculated on purchase power parity with USA ; *** comparison: BRD USD 35.700


0.1550.35911,30051.17 (4%)4,6Costa Rica

7.13.713,9001,567 (5.4%)114Mexico

0.231

0.083

21.9

German imports from ...


0.316

0.182

26,3

German exports to ...


13,000

5,200

6,942

GDP per capita

USD***

4,433585Latin America

70.15 (2.6%)13,8Guatemala

44.36 (7.5%)

GDP**billion USD

(growth in %,2010)

3,5Panama

million inhabitants

(2010)

Macroeconomic comparison* (Mexico and Central America)

Sources:

* LAV Hamburg; GTAI (Germany Trade & Invest); IMF; CIA World Factbook; exchange rate dd. 31.12.2010: 1 EUR = 1, 3252 USD** calculated on purchase power parity with USA*** comparison: BRD USD 35.700


498%6.9%UYUUruguay

594%7.2%PYGParaguay

797.2%22%ARSArgentina

2

3

Hermes category

91.6%

90.4%

Literacy

5.9%BRLBrazil

5%

Inflation

CNYChina

currency

Macroeconomic comparison (Mercosur)

Sources:

* LAV Hamburg; GTAI (Germany Trade & Invest), CIA World Factbook; exchange rate dd. 31.12.2010: 1 EUR = 1,3252 USD** calculated on purchase power parity with USA*** comparison: BRD USD 35.700


394.9%5.8%CRCCosta Rica

386.1%4.1%MXNMexico

3

5

Hermes category

91.9%

69.1%

Literacy

3.9%GTQGuatemala

3.5%

Inflation

PABPanama

currency

Macroeconomic comparison (Mexico and Central America)

Sources:

* LAV Hamburg; GTAI (Germany Trade & Invest), CIA World Factbook; exchange rate dd. 31.12.2010: 1 EUR = 1,3252 USD** calculated on purchase power parity with USA*** comparison: BRD USD 35.700


Market overview Mercosur (chances for German export s)

Production and Trade

.... exports.... imports.... produces

Soybeans and derivatives, petroleumand gas, vehicles, corn, wheat

Machinery, motorvehicles, petroleum and natural gas, organicechemicals, plastics

consumer electronics, agricultural products (food, drinks, fish), automotive parts, fuels, iron and steel, paper products, tobacco, lemons

Argentina

iron ore, oil, footwear, meat, sugar, transport equipment, iron and steel

machinery, oil, chemicalproducts, consumer electronics, transport equipment, pharmaceuticals

agricultural products (food, drinks, fish), transport equipment, machinery, metal products, medicine equipment, wood, plastics, textiles, aircraft

Brazil

Sources:European Commission for Trade; Germany Trade & Invest, CIA World Factbook

Brazil‘s economy has the highest degree of diversification !





oleiferous fruit, meat, animal food, vegetableoil, electricity, corn, wood, leather

electronics, oil, chemicals, transport equipment, tractors, machinery, consumer electronics, fertiliser

Sugarcane, food and tabacco, meat, textiles and clothing, vegetable oil, cement, electricpowermilk products

Paraguay

beef, rice, soya, milk products, cellulose, rice, wool, wheat

Crude oil, refined oilmchemicals, machinery, transportation vehicles, (consumer) electronics, cellular phones, insecticides

plastics, iron and steel, chemicals, wood, furniture, dairy products, fish, meat, foodprocessing, beverages

Uruguay




Trade partners

Brazil (20%), EU 27 (19%), Chile (8%), USA (7%), China (7%),

Brazil (31%), EU 27 (17%), USA (14%), China (13%), Mexico (3%), Germany 5.1%

Argentina

EU 27 (23%), China (13%), USA (11%), Argentina (8%), Netherlands5.4%, Germany 4.1% Japan (3%)

EU 27 (23%), USA (17%), China (13%), Argentina (9% ), Germany 7.7%, Japan (4%)

Brazil

.... exports to.... imports from




Brazil (20%), Uruguay (17%), Chile (11%), Argentina (11%), EU 27 (6%)

China (30%), Brazil (23%), Argentina (16%), EU 27 (6%), Venezuela (5%), Japan (5%)

Paraguay

Trade partners

Brazil (21%), EU 27 (19 %), Argentina(7.5 %), Chile (5.5%),Russia (5%)

.... exports to

Brazil (18.6%), Argentina (16.7%), China (13.5%), Venezuela (9.1%), USA (8.3%), Russia (4.2%)

.... imports from

Uruguay



Market overview Mexico and Central America (chances for German exports)



manufactured goods, oil and oil products, silver, fruits, vegetables, coffee, cotton

metalworking machines, steel mill products, agricultural machinery, electrical equipment, carparts for assembly, repairparts for motor vehicles, aircraft, and aircraft parts

food and drinks, textiles and clothing, leather, woodproducts, tobacco, machinery, electronics, furniture, motorvehicles, tourism

Mexico

coffee, sugar, petroleum, apparel, bananas, fruits and vegetables, cardamom

fuels, machinery and transport equipment, construction materials, grain, fertilizers, electricity

agricultural products, miningproducts, fuels, textiles and clothing, tourism

Guatemala



Market overview Central America (chances for German exports)



electronics, fruits, mesuring technologies, chemicals, coffee, textiles and clothing

electronics, chemicals, oil, machinery, transport equipment, textiles and clothing, paper products, cereals, iron and steel

agricultural products, fuels and mining products, machinery and transport equipment

Costa Rica

fish, fruits, gold, chemicals, meat, paper, coffee

oil, chemicals, transport equipment, machinery, electronics, textiles and clothing, iron and steel, cereals, metal products

agricultural products, fuels and mining products, machinery and transport equipment

Panama



Market overview Mexico and Central America (chances for German exports)

Trade partners

USA (81%), EU 27 (5%), Canada (4%), Colombia (1%), Brazil (1%)

USA (49%), China (14%), EU 27 (12%), Japan (5%), South Korea (5%)

Mexico

USA (42%), El Salvador (9%), Honduras (8%), Mexico (7%), EU 27 (6%)

USA (37%), Mexico (11%), EU 27 (7%), China (6%), El Salvador (5%)

Guatemala

.... exports to.... imports from



Market overview Central America (chances for German exports)

USA (36%), EU 27 (18%), China (9%), Netherlands (6.8%), Panama (5%), Guatemala (4%)

USA (43%), EU 27 (8%), Mexico (7%), China (6%), Japan (5%)

Costa Rica

Trade partners

Venezuela (22%), South Korea (17%), EU 27 (12%), Ecuador (6%), India(5%)

.... exports to

Japan (28%), China (14%), Singapore (13%), South Korea (10%), USA (9%)

.... imports from

Panama



Abundant natural resources

Significant proportion of manufacturedproducts in total production and exports

Continuation of inflation targeting policy

High amount of foreign currencyreserves

Size and potential of the domesticmarket

Competitive labour costs

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) 2010: 48 bln USD

Strengths

Lack of infrastructure (energy, transport network, ports and airports)

Social imbalances

Lack of skilled labour

High cost of credit

Excessive public-sector debt

Weaknesses

Back Up: Brazil

Quellen: www.coface.com; Bloomberg


Agenda

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Final Remarks

Macroeconomics

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Middle East

Leading position in Euro payments and trade services

Source: various FImetrix studies 2008-2010; market shares in selected products excl. use of own bank / Africa figures based on SWIFT Watch reports and own estimates respectively

Western Europe & North America CEE & CIS Asia Pacific

Latin America

Leading providerLC Reimbursements

n/aLCs

No 3Treasury Clearing

No 2Commercial Payments

No 1LC Reimbursements

No 1LCs




No 4 European Bank LCs




No 1 European BankLCs




No 3LCs


No 2 Commercial Payments

No 1Number of account relationships

No 1Number of bank relationships

No 3Number of LCs handled

No 3 Number of payments processed

Africa


7,000 bank clients, over 60 locations, one bank: Com merzbank

New York

Caracas

São Paulo

Buenos Aires

Panama City

Johannesburg

Addis AbabaLagos

TripoliCairo

Beirut

Dubai

AshgabatBaku

Mumbai

TashkentAlmaty

Novosibirsk

Beijing Seoul

Shanghai

Taipei

Tokyo

Hong Kong

Ho Chi Minh CityBangkok

Singapore

Jakarta

Representative offices - Financial Institutions

Commerzbank worldwide:

Foreign branches

Milan

ViennaParis

MadridBarcelona

LuxemburgBrussels

London

DublinAmsterdam

Istanbul

BucharestBelgrade

Budapest

Zagreb

BratislavaKošiceBrno

OstravaPlzenPrague

Hradec KrálovéWarsaw

Minsk

Kiev

Moscow

Santiago de Chile

Kuala Lumpur

Riga

Melbourne

Group companies and major foreign holdings

Tianjin

Zurich


Final Remarks for allof Latam :

product excellence: Embraer in Brazil

natural ressources: Codelco in Chile

research and development: bio technology in Cuba

labor market: qualified labor force !

your gateway:

-

-

capital markets: Petrobras no. 11 worldwide worth USD 211 bn

Thomas Krieger ‌ Financial Institutions – Latin America ‌‌‌ Frankfurt / 09.08.2011

Thomas KriegerManaging DirectorFinancial InstitutionsLatin America

Tel. +49 (0)69 / 136-2 4829Mail [email protected]

Commerzbank AGFinancial InstitutionsKaiserplatzFrankfurt am Mainwww.fi.commerzbank.com

Postal Address60261 Frankfurt am MainTel. +49 (0)69 / 136-20Mail [email protected]

latin america as partner of the german economy america as partner of the german economy when do you...

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