ipsos mori political monitor€¦ · base: c. 800 british adults; prior to july 2015 the turnout...


VOTINGINTENTION

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | August 20203

Voting Intention:August 2020

All giving a voting intentionHeadline voting intention

Conservative lead = +4 Conservative lead = +8

45%

37%

6%

1%

5%

6%

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dems

Brexit Party

Green

Other

43%

39%

6%

1%

6%

6%

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dem

Brexit Party

Green

Other

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,019 British adults 18+, 30 July – 4 August 2020; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 743. Margin of error is

displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance

that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind

when calculating party lead figures.

How do you intend to vote in the General Election? Will you vote…?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ma

y 1

5

Jul 15

Sep 1

5

No

v 1

5

Jan 1

6

Ma

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Jul 16

Sep 1

6

No

v 1

6

Jan 1

7

Ma

r 17

Ma

y 1

7

Jul 17

Sep 1

7

No

v 1

7

Jan 1

8

Ma

r 18

Ma

y 1

8

Jul 18

Sep 1

8

No

v 1

8

Jan 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jul 19

Sep 1

9

No

v 1

9

Jan 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ma

y 2

0

Jul 20

Corbyn elected

(Sept 15)

May as PM

(July 16)

Starmer elected

(Apr 20)

Headline voting intention:Since the 2015 General Election

4

45%Conservative

%

August

2020

Johnson as PM

(July 19)

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General

Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

37%Labour

General Election

How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?

Jun 2

0


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

04

Ap

r 04

Jul 04

Oct

04

Jan

05

Ap

r 05

Jul 05

Oct

05

Jan

06

Ap

r 06

Jul 06

Oct

06

Jan

07

Ap

r 07

Jul 07

Oct

07

Jan

08

Ap

r 08

Jul 08

Oct

08

Jan

09

Ap

r 09

Jul 09

Oct

09

Jan

10

Ap

r 10

Jul 10

Oct

10

Jan

11

Ap

r 11

Jul 11

Oct

11

Jan

12

Ap

r 12

Jul 12

Oct

12

Jan

13

Ap

r 13

Jul 13

Oct

13

Jan

14

Ap

r 14

Jul 14

Oct

14

Jan

15

Ap

r 15

Jul 15

Oct

15

Jan

16

Ap

r 16

Jul 16

Oct

16

Jan

17

Ap

r 17

Jul 17

Oct

17

Jan

18

Ap

r 18

Jul 18

Oct

18

Jan

19

Ap

r 19

Jul 19

Oct

19

Jan

20

Ap

r 20

Jul 20

Miliband elected

(Sept 10)Corbyn elected

(Sept 15)

May as PM

(July 16)Johnson as PM

(July 19)Cameron elected

(Dec 05)

Brown as PM

(June 07)Starmer elected

(Apr 20)

Headline voting intention:January ‘04 – August ’20

%

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General

Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019


August

2020

45% Conservative

37% Labour

6% Lib Dem

The Brexit Party

5% Green

UKIP

General Election

5

How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?


SATISFACTIONWITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS


Boris Johnson Keir Starmer The Government

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: August 2020

7

26%

27%

48%

Dissatisfied

Don’t know

Satisfied

+3.5% swing from June 2020

Net= +22

48%

5%

47%

Net= -4Net= -1%

0% swing from June 2020

Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, 30 July – 4 August 2020. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and

% “dissatisfied”


Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his/her job.

as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party?

48%

8%

44%

-4.5% swing from June 2020


Boris Johnson: Satisfaction

Net = -1

August 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jul-1

9

Sep-1

9

Oct-

19

De

c-1

9

Jan-1

9

Feb

-19

Ma

r-2

0

Apr-

20

Ma

y-2

0

Jun-2

0

Jul-2

0

Aug-2

0

47%Satisfied

5%Don’t know

48%Dissatisfied

July 2019 – August 2020

47%Satisfied

48%Dissatisfied


8

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

47%

5%

48%

Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, 30 July – 4 August 2020


Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters

August 2020

87%Satisfied

2%Don’t know

11%Dissatisfied


9

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jul-1

9

Sep-1

9

Oct-

19

De

c-1

9

Jan-2

0

Feb

-20

Ma

r-2

0

Apr-

20

Ma

y-2

0

Jun-2

0

Jul-2

0

Aug-2

0

87%Satisfied

11%Dissatisfied

87%

2%11%

Net = +76

July 2019 – August 2020

Base: 370 Conservative party supporters aged 18+, 30 July – 4 August 2020


Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2020)

10

Number of months after becoming prime minister

Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Johnson

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

Blair

Major

Cameron

Johnson

Brown

Thatcher

May


How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister?


Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2020)

11

Blair’s gov

Major’s gov

Cameron’s gov

Johnson’s gov

Brown’s gov

Thatcher’s gov

May’s gov Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Johnson’s Gov

Number of months after assuming government


Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?


Keir Starmer: Satisfaction

Net = +22

August 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jun-2

0

Jul-2

0

Aug-2

0

48%Satisfied

27%Don’t know

26%Dissatisfied

June – August 2020

48%Satisfied

26%Dissatisfied


12

48%

27%

26%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour

Party?



Starmer

Corbyn

Blair

Smith

Kinnock

Miliband

Foot

Cameron

Duncan-smith

Hague

Howard

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2020)

Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Number of months after becoming opposition leader


Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

13

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

Starmer


Net = +51

August 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jun-2

0

Jul-2

0

Aug-2

0

67%Satisfied

17%Don’t know

16%Dissatisfied

June 2020 – August 2020

67%Satisfied

16%Dissatisfied


14

67%

17%

16%

Keir Starmer: Satisfaction amongst Labour supportersAre you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour

Party?

Base: 320 Labour party supporters aged 18+, 30 July – 4 August 2020


LABOUR LEADERSHIP CONTEST

THE CORONAVIRUS


Handling of the Coronavirus outbreak

31%

38%

42%

43%

60%

62%

14%

38%

40%

43%

13%

13%

Overall, how well or badly

do you think each of the

following have handled

the coronavirus outbreak

so far? If you do not know

who the person is, please

say so.

16

Boris Johnson

The Government

Very/fairly well Net

wellVery/fairly badly

Chris Whitty, The Chief Medical Officer for England

Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer

Matt Hancock, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care

+49

Keir Starmer, Leader of the Labour party

+47

0

+2

0

+17



+28

+46

+38

+42

+16

+5+14

-4

+9

+3

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

% Net handling the Coronavirus outbreak well

August 2020

Handling of the Coronavirus outbreak: March – August 2020

Overall, how well or badly do you think each of the following have handled the

coronavirus outbreak so far? If you do not know who the person is, please say so.

+49 Chris Whitty

+47 Rishi Sunak

+2 The Government

0 Boris Johnson

0 Matt Hancock


LEADERSAND PARTIES


Prime Minister material?

On balance, do you agree or disagree … has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister?

36%

38%

45%

22%

24%

43%


19

Agree

Boris Johnson

DisagreeNet

Agree

+2

Keir Starmer

Rishi Sunak

+14

+14



Prime Minister material? Among own party supporters

On balance, do you agree or disagree … has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister?

46%

60%

87%

15%

9%

8%


20

Agree

Boris Johnson

DisagreeNet

Agree

+79

Keir Starmer

Rishi Sunak

+51

+31

Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, Conservative party supporters (370), Labour party supporters (320), 30 July – 4 August 2020


Having what it takes to be a good Prime Minister:2016-2020

On balance, do you agree or disagree that … has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

% Agree

Theresa

May

Jeremy

Corbyn

Boris

Johnson

45%Boris Johnson

38%Keir Starmer

February 2020

Keir

Starmer


Having what it takes to be a good Prime Minister:Boris Johnson (2014-2020)

On balance, do you agree or disagree that … has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults, c.200-300 Conservative party supporters each month

-22% -20%

-49%-55%

-41%-39% -40%-39%

-19%

-5%

9%2%

10%5%

-45%-36%

-26%

-12%

-26%

-17%

31%

67%

84%79%

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

Jul-

14

Jul-

15

Jul-

16

Ap

r-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

Mar-

19

May-1

9

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Feb

-20

% Net agree Boris Johnson +79%

Among Conservative

party supporters

Boris Johnson +2%

Among general public

Au

g-2

0


Is the current Government competent?

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following? The word

“competent” is an accurate description of the current Government

46%

22%

40%

40%

66%

44%

April 2015

September 2019

August 2020


23

Agree

Under Boris Johnson

Under Boris Johnson

Under David Cameron

Disagree

Net

Agree

-4

-44

+6



Would there be chaos with a Labour Government?

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following? There would be chaos

if a Labour government was elected at the next General Election

36%

52%

31%

52%

35%

47%

April 2015

September 2019

August 2020


24

Agree

Under Keir Starmer

Under Jeremy Corbyn

Under Ed Miliband

Disagree

Net

Agree

-16

+17

-16



Is the Opposition ready to form the next Government?

To what extent, if at all, do you

agree or disagree with the

following?

Labour is ready to form the next

Government

66%

56%

55%

31%

29%

35%

23%

33%

27%

30%

27%

32%

29%

25%

33%

33%

57%

58%

52%

61%

52%

63%

60%

62%

59%

47%

Dec '94

Jan '96

Apr '97

May '11

Apr '13

Jun '14

Nov '14

Feb '15

May '16

May '17

Sep '19

Nov '19

Aug '20


25

Aug ‘20

Under Ed Miliband

Under Tony Blair

Under Jeremy Corbyn

Agree Disagree

Under Keir Starmer



Is the Opposition ready to form the next Government?

To what extent, if at all, do you agree with the following? … is ready to form the next Government?

26

66%

56%

58% 58%

55%

23%

25%

21%

35%45%

58%

41%

50%

47%

31% 29%

35%

23%

33%

27%

30%

27%

32% 29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Blair becomes

Labour leader

(July 94)

GE1997

(May 97)

IDS becomes

Con leader

(Sep 01)

Howard becomes

Con leader (Nov 03)

Hague becomes Con

leader (July 97)

Cameron becomes

Con leader (Dec 05)

Miliband becomes

Labour leader (Sep 2010)Corbyn becomes

Labour leader (Sep 2015)

Dec-

94

Jan

-96

Ap

r-97

Jun

-96

Jan

-97

May-0

0

May-0

1

Sep

-03

Ap

r-05

Jul-

08

Au

g-0

8

Sep

-08

Sep

-09

Ap

r-09

May-1

1

Ap

r-13

Jun

-14

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

May-1

6

May-1

7

Sep

-19

No

v-1

9

% Agree


Starmer becomes

Labour leader (Apr 2020)

Au

g-2

0


Gideon Skinner

Research Director

[email protected]

Keiran Pedley

Research Director

[email protected]

Cameron Garrett

Senior Research Executive

[email protected]

Ipsos MORIAugust 2020 Political Monitor

For more information

Dylan Spielman

Research Executive

[email protected]

ipsos mori political monitor€¦ · base: c. 800 british adults; prior to july 2015 the turnout...

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