introduction to media mix optimization

4
Kaenan Hertz, PhD Media Mix Optimization [email protected] 210-399-1666

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Kaenan Hertz, PhD

Media Mix Optimization

[email protected]

210-399-1666

Mathematical Techniques Exist to Reallocate Spend and Improve Return on Marketing Investments

www.lulustar.com 2

Optimized Current

Radio 5%

Direct mail 40%

vs.

Email 10%

Other 40%

Radio 10%

Direct mail 30%

Email 15%

Other 30%

Derive the same return from

lower investment

Derive a greater return from

same investment

Social Media 5%

Social Media 15%

Sample Realized Investment Gains

Beverage Company •  Identified savings of 19% in total marketing spend •  Reinvested savings to reposition largest brand

Auto Manufacturer •  Identified savings of 16% in total advertising spend •  ~50% of budget reallocated to increase effectiveness

Media Company •  Identified savings of 12% in total marketing spend •  ~40% of budget reallocated into higher impact activities

Estimated ROI Increase

of 40%

Estimated ROI Increase

of 33%+

Estimated ROI Increase

of 50%+

Source: Acxiom www.lulustar.com 3

Techniques Are Based on Econometric Modeling

Key Estimation Components

•  Lagged and Carry-over effects of media spend, by channel

•  Response saturation, by channel

•  Correlation – over time and across products

•  Systems of Equations

•  Model validation and predictive accuracy

•  Share of Voice

•  Environmental variables (e.g. Employment Rate)

•  Competitive Events

•  Seasonality

Typical Marketing Mix Optimization (MMO) Modeling Techniques

• Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)

• Ridge Regression

• Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS)

• Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR)

• Multivariate Time Series

• Spatial Regression

www.lulustar.com 4