# international parity conditions - lakehead pgreg/assignments/ parity conditions eiteman et al.,...     Post on 02-May-2018

220 views

Category:

## Documents

Embed Size (px)

TRANSCRIPT

• International Parity Conditions

Eiteman et al., Chapter 6

Winter 2004

Outline of the Chapter

How are exchange rates determined? Can we predict them?

Prices and Exchange Rates Prices Indices

Inflation Rates

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates Absence of Arbitrage Opportunities

2

• Prices and Exchange Rates

An exchange rate is the price of a currency in terms of another

currency.

What do we usually do with our currencies? Buy goods and

services.

Prices of G&S derived from supply and demand are equilibrium

prices.

3

Prices and Exchange Rates

If G&S can freely be exchanged between countries, then

identical goods should have the same price in every country.

G&S that sell for different prices in two different countries

should then create some pressure on the exchange rate of these

countries currencies.

Equilibrium Prices Equilibrium Exchange Rates?

4

• Prices and Exchange Rates

In frictionless markets,

P\$S = PU,

where S in the exchange in U/\$, P\$ and PU are prices in the U.S.and Japan, respectively.

Purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate:

S =PU

P\$

5

Prices and Exchange Rates

In theory, the law of one price should hold for all goods and

services.

Comparing identical goods in different markets should give us

equilibrium exchange rates.

Absolute version of the PPP theory: Spot exchange rates aredetermined by the relative prices of similar baskets of goods.

6

• Prices and Exchange Rates

The Hamburger Standard

Lets apply the PPP theory to Big Mac prices.

Price of a Big Mac: C\$ 3.33 and US\$2.49 (April 25, 2002).

PPP exchange rate: C\$3.33/US\$2.49 = C\$1.34/US\$.

Actual exchange rate: C\$1.57/US\$.

Undervaluation of the C\$ (on the spot market):

PPP Exchange RateSpotSpot

=1.341.57

1 = 15%.

7

Prices and Exchange Rates

In a less extreme form, the PPP theory should hold for baskets of

goods.

PIU price of a basket of goods in yenPI\$ price in US\$ of the same basket

PPP exchange rate between Japan and US:

S =PIU

PI\$

8

• Prices and Exchange Rates

Relative changes in prices between two countries over a period

of time is what determines the changes in exchange rates over the

same period.

If the spot exchange rate between two countries starts in

equilibrium, any change in the differential rate of inflation

between them tends to be offset over the long run by an equal but

opposite change in the spot exchange rate.

9

Prices and Exchange Rates

PIit Price index in Country i at time t, i = U,\$i inflation in Country i from time t to t +1St exchange rate at time t in U/\$Assuming PPP theory holds at time t,

St =PIUtPI\$t

and St+1 =PIUt (1+U)PI\$t (1+\$)

= St 1+U

1+\$

10

• Prices and Exchange Rates

Percent change in the value of the yen from t to t +1:

1/St+11/St1/St

=St

St+11

=St

St 1+U1+\$1

=1+\$

1+U1

=\$U1+U

\$U

11

Prices and Exchange Rates

Relative Purchasing Power Parity: An Example

Hondas price per vehicle: U4,000,000S = U125/\$Expected inflation in Japan: 1%

Expected inflation in U.S.: 3%

Assuming PPP, what is the expected spot exchange rate at the

end of the year?

12

• Prices and Exchange Rates

Relative Purchasing Power Parity: An Example

Send = S1+U

1+\$

= U125/\$ 1.011.03

= U122.57/\$

13

Prices and Exchange Rates

PPP and Transaction Costs

Helliwell (1998) Canadian provinces are 12 times more likely to

among themselves then with closer American states

The border matters

14

• Prices and Exchange Rates

PPP holds well over the very long run but poorly for shorter time

periods

The theory holds better for countries with relatively high rates of

inflation and underdeveloped capital markets

15

Prices and Exchange Rates

Example

Businesses and consumers tend to abandon their currency in a

hyperinflationary economy.

Suppose a TV set is priced 1,200 pesos in Mexico, reflecting a

\$400 TV price and 3 peso/\$.

If the peso devalues to 6 peso/\$, the price of a TV set becomes

2,400 pesos

PPP holds immediately since merchants use PPP to calculate

their prices

16

• Prices and Exchange Rates

Real and Nominal Exchange Rates

Suppose PPP holds:

\$1.50/ =\$1,500/U.S. good

1,000/British good

and thus

\$1.50/\$1,500/1,000

= 1 British good per U.S. good,

i.e. identical goods trade on a one-for-one basis.

17

Prices and Exchange Rates

Real and Nominal Exchange Rates

The units of the real exchange rate between U.S. and U.K. is

U.S. goodsBritish goods

orBritish goodsU.S. goods

When exchange rates change by the same percentage as relative

prices, real exchange is constant.

18

• Prices and Exchange Rates

Real and Nominal Exchange Rates

Real Exchange Rate =Nominal Exchange Rate

PPP Exchange Rate

Sr(\$/) =Sn(\$/)PI\$/PI

If Sr(\$/) > 1, US\$ is undervalued vis--vis the .

19

Prices and Exchange Rates

Real and Nominal Exchange Rates

Real Exchange Rate Index =Nominal Exchange Rate Index

PPP Exchange Rate Index

Er(FC/\$) =En(FC/\$)

CFC/C\$

If changes in exchange rates offset differential inflation,

Er = 100.

20

• Prices and Exchange Rates

Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Incomplete exchange rate pass-through could explain why an

exchange rate can deviate from its PPP-equilibrium level.

This may depend on demand elasticities:

p =Qpp

Goods with inelastic demand, i.e. |p|< 1, should be associatedwith a higher degree of pass-through.

21

Prices and Exchange Rates

Exchange Rate Pass-Through: An Example

BMW produces automobiles in Germany and pays all production

expenses in euros. When esporting to the US, the price should be

P\$BMW = PBMWS

If the euro appreciates by 10% over the US\$, then P\$BMW should

also increase by 10%.

If, instead, P\$BMW increases by less than 10%, the pass-through is

partial. BMW may want to limit the pass-through.

22

• Prices and Exchange Rates

Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Example Continued

Suppose exchange rate is \$1/.

P\$BMW = PBMW

If the euro appreciates 20% versus the dollar and

PBMW = 35,000,

P\$BMW = 1.235,000 = \$42,000.

23

Prices and Exchange Rates

Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Example Continued

If, instead, P\$BMW = \$40,000, the pass-through is

(P\$BMW,2P\$BMW,1)/PBMW,1(S2S1)/S1 =

(4035)/35.20

=.14.20

= 70%

24

• Prices and Exchange Rates

Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Another Example

Hondas price per vehicle is U4,000,000, Sb = U125/\$

Expected inflation in Japan: 1%, Expected inflation in U.S.: 3%

25

Prices and Exchange Rates

Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Example Continued

(a) Assuming PPP and 100% pass through, what is the expected

price of a Honda in US\$ at the end of the year (e end, bbeginning)?

Let U denote the precentage change in the value of the yen,i.e.

U =SbSe

Se Se = Sb1+ U

(note that we calculate the percentage change this way

because the exchange rate is quoted in U/\$).

26

• Prices and Exchange Rates

Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Example Continued

(a) Assuming PPP, we have

P\$b Sb = PUb P\$e Se = PUeP\$e

Sb1+ U

=(1+U

)PUb

P\$e = (1+ U)(1+U)

PUbSb

P\$e = (1+ U)(1+U)P\$b

That is, the increase in the US price is the compoundingeffect of inflation in Japan and the percentage appreciationof the yen.

27

Prices and Exchange Rates

Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Example Continued

(a) In the present case, we have

Sb = U125/\$ , Se =1.01125

1.03= U122.57/\$

and thus the Japanese yen appreciates by

1/Se1/Sb1/Sb

=SbSe

Se=

125122.57122.57

= 1.98%

versus the dollar.

28

• Prices and Exchange Rates

Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Example Continued

(a) If the exchange rate pass-through is 100%, then the newprice of a Honda in the US is (the beginning price is4,000,000/125 = \$32,000)

P\$e = (1+100% U)(1+U)P\$b = 1.01981.0132,000 = \$32,960.

29

Prices and Exchange Rates

Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Example Continued

(b) Assuming PPP and 60% pass through, the new price of aHonda in US\$ at the end of the year is

P\$e = (1+60% U)(1+U)P\$b = 1.01191.0132,000 = \$32,704.

30

• Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

The Fisher Effect

1 + r =1+ i1+

i = r ++ r

r real exchange ratei nominal exchange rate inflation rate

31

The International Fisher Effect

i\$ nominal interest in the USiU nominal interest rate in JapanS1 exchange rate (in U/\$) at the beginning of the periodS2 exchange rate at the end of the periodReturn should be the same in both markets

S1S2

(1+ iU) = 1 + i\$ S1S2

=1+ i\$

1+ iU

Subtracting one on both sides:

S1S2S2

=i\$ iU1+ iU

32

Recommended