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International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
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• Introduction
• GLOBIOM Model
• First results
• Wrap up and questions
• Increasing demand of woody biomass resources:
– Energy production
– Woody materials
• Where can we get the biomass from:
– Forest management intensification: • A more diverse and wider spectrum of biomass resources can
be developed by the right incentives
• Soil, carbon and biodiversity implications?
– Short rotation plantations: • Very high growth in tropical area
• May induce large scale land use change?
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Source: Modified after Azar et al. 2011 4 / 23
Source: G. Berndes et al. Biomass and Bioenergy 25 (2003) 5 / 23
Source: R. Offermann et al. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2010) 6 / 23
Source: IIASA (2011) 7 / 23
Demand
Wood products
Food
Bioenergy
G4M
Exogenous drivers Population growth, economic growth
Primary wood products SUPPLY
PROCESS
PX5
Altitude class, Slope class,
Soil Class
PX5
Altitude class (m): 0 – 300, 300 – 600, 600 – 1200, 1200 – 2500 and > 2500;
Slope class (deg): 0 – 3, 3 – 6, 6 – 10, 10 – 15, 15 – 30, 30 – 50 and > 50;
Soil texture class: coarse, medium, fine, stony and peat;
HRU = Altitude & Slope & Soil
Biophysical models
52 regions
EPIC
140120100806040
120
100
80
60
40
observed intakes (g/kg BW0.75)
pre
dic
ted
in
tak
es
(g
/kg
BW
0.7
5)
soto pred
l and m pred
shem pred
kaitho pred
manyuchi pred
Kariuki pred
Euclides pred
j and h pred
l and f pred
fall pred
RUMINANT
OPTIMIZATION Partial equilibrium model
Max. CSPS
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Crops
Simulation Units (SimU) – HRU
– 50x50km grid
– Country boundaries
Source: Skalský et al. (2008)
Country HRU*PX30
PX5
SimU delineation related
statistics on LC classes and
Cropland management systems
reference for geo-coded data on crop management;
input statistical data for LC/LU economic optimization;
LC&LUstat
> 200.000 SimUs
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PX5
Altitude class, Slope class,
Soil Class
PX5
Altitude class (m): 0 – 300, 300 – 600, 600 – 1200, 1200 – 2500 and > 2500;
Slope class (deg): 0 – 3, 3 – 6, 6 – 10, 10 – 15, 15 – 30, 30 – 50 and > 50;
Soil texture class: coarse, medium, fine, stony and peat;
HRU = Altitude & Slope & Soil
Processes • Weather • Hydrology • Erosion • Carbon
sequestration • Crop growth • Crop rotations • Fertilization • Tillage • Irrigation • Drainage • Pesticide • Grazing • Manure 10 / 23
Global production system map FAO/ILRI
• 14 livestock production systems
• 6 animal types:
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Spatially explicit global forest model developed at IIASA Estimates afforestation and deforestation by comparing the income of different
land uses Is calibrated to historic data (2000-2010) reported by Member States on
afforestation and deforestation Management
Planting/Regeneration Thinning Final Harvest Calamities Management
Major outputs: Mean annual increment Tree size Sawn wood suitability Harvesting cost (Full Carbon Accounting)
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28 regions represented on the map + Sub-saharan Africa split in Western Africa, Eastern Africa and Southern Africa (Congo Basin and South Africa already separated)
Natural Forests
Managed Forests
Short Rotation Tree Plantations
Cropland
Grassland
Other natural land
Bioenergy Bioethanol Biodiesel Methanol Heat Electricity Biogas
Wood products Sawn wood Pulp Fiberboard
Livestock products Beef Lamb Pork Poultry Eggs Milk
Crops Corn Wheat Cassava Potatoes Rapeseed etc…
LAN
D U
SE C
HA
NG
E
Wood Processing
Bioenergy- Processing
Livestock Feeding
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1st generation
biofuels Ethanol
Biodiesel
2nd generation
biofuels Methanol Ethanol
Sugarcane Corn
Wheat
Wood
Soybean Oil Palm
Rapeseed Sunflower
LAND PRIMARY PRODUCTS
FINAL PRODUCTS PROCESS
Short Rotation Tree
Plantations
Cropland
Wood residues
Gasification Fermentation
Refinery
DDGS Cakes
Managed Forests
• Objective function:
– Max consumer + producer surplus - costs
• Constraints:
– Resource equations
– Land use equations
– Crop livestock equations
– Environmental impact equations
– Policy equations
– Linear supply and demand functions
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• Main outputs
– Land use and land use change (direct & indirect)
– Bilateral trade flows
– Spatially explicit agricultural production
– Spatially explicit forest production
– Biofuel production
– Food consumption and food prices
– Biodiversity, water & fertilizer requirements
– CO2 emissions related to land use change
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USD 2000 / GJ Primary energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
EJ P
rim
ary
en
erg
y
USD: 13.5
USD: 8
USD: 5
USD: 3
USD: 1.5
USD: 0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
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Harvesting of woody biomass (Mm3) Harvesting of plantation biomass (Mm3)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
USD: 0 USD: 1.5 USD: 3 USD: 5 USD: 8 USD: 13.5
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Harvesting of plantation biomass (Mm3)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
WesternEurope
SubSaharanAfrica
SouthAsia
PlannedAsiaChina
PacificOECD
OtherPacificAsia
NorthAmerica
MidEastNorthAfrica
LatinAmericaCarib
FormerSovietUnion
CentralEastEurope
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3500
3600
3700
3800
3900
4000
4100
4200
4300
4400
4500
2010202020302040205020602070208020902100
GHG: 0.01 GHG: 10 GHG: 20 GHG: 40GHG: 50 GHG: 100 GHG: 200 GHG: 400
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010202020302040205020602070208020902100
Total amount of forest (Mha) Total amount of plantations (Mha)
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• Future research needed to further analyze land use change implications between sectors.
• There are significant challenges for biomass to meet future energy portfolios.
• The most profitable solutions will be taken by companies to fulfill their demand.
• Some “solutions” to provide biomass feedstock will have significant ecological, ecosystem, and biodiversity impacts.
