Impacts of Natural Disasters on Local Communities

25th Session Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission Pre-Session Seminar on Forests and Natural Disasters

4 November 2013, Rotorua, New Zealand

Rowena Soriaga Pedro Walpole

We live in the most disaster - stricken region in the world.

• East Asia and the Pacific accounts for 40% of the total floods worldwide over the past 30 years (WB 2013).

• More than 1.6 billion people affected by disaster in East Asia and the Pacific since 2000 (EM-DAT 2012).

• Losses (2011): US$380 billion global; East Asia 80%.

• 410 million urban Asians are projected to be at risk of coastal flooding by 2025 (ADB 2012).

• Events may be small recurrent or rare high-impact.

Direct Impacts: Of course, negative. Focal disaster-affected areas

Event Date

Rainfall event/ Weather system

Rainfall Impacts

Ormoc City (Leyte)

5 Nov 1991

Tropical Storm Uring (Thelma) and orographic effect

580.5 mm on 5 Nov was twice the average monthly (1976-1991) total rainfall for Nov = 280.84 mm1 ; 26.3 mm on 1 – 4 Nov (PNOC-EDC Hostel rain gauge)

4,000 people dead, some 2,500 missing 3,020 injured

Real, Infanta, General Nakar (Quezon)

29 Nov 2004

Typhoon Unding (14–21 Nov), Violeta (22–23 Nov) and Winnie (30 Nov–04 Dec)

370 mm recorded on 29 Nov before rain gauge was toppled; 272.4 mm precedent rainfall (15 – 28 Nov, Infanta station)2

Infanta and General Nakar: 135,000 people displaced; 1,462 people dead; 361 missing; 38,000 totally damaged houses; 134,000 partially damaged houses3

Guinsaugon, St. Bernard (Southern Leyte)

18 Feb 2006

Prolonged rainfall induced by the La Nina episode

612.7 mm rainfall on 7–12 Feb exceeded over 4 times the monthly average rainfall (Feb) 143.3 mm Maasin station although there was only 4.3 mm rainfall on the day of the event with little rain in the immediate 5 preceding days (13–17 Feb)a

(Maasin rain gauge)

1,119 people dead and missing4; entire village of Guinsaugon buried

Cagayan de Oro City (Misamis Oriental)

3, 11, 13 Jan 2009

Tail-end of cold front that triggered conti-nuous rainfall on 2– 27 Jan 2009

104.4mm 24-hour rainfall on 13 Jan and 162.7 mm 2-day rainfall on 10-11 Jan exceeded average monthly total for Dec = 98.9 mm a (Lumbia station)

11,722 families (61,516 people) in 29 barangays affected/displaced; 7 dead; 635 houses totally destroyed & 2,965 partially destroyed5

Marikina Valley (Metro Manila)

26 Sept 2009

Tropical Storm Ondoy (Ketsana)

455mm 24-hour rainfall on 26 Sept was higher than average monthly total for Sept = 451.2 mm; 227.9 mm 10-day (16–25 Sept) rainfall formed 50 % of average monthly total a

Nationwide: 993,227 families/4,901,234 people affected; 464 dead, 529 injured, 37 missing6

Cagayan de Oro City

16 Dec 2011

Tropical Storm Sendong

180.9mm 24-hour rainfall on 16 Dec exceeded the average monthly total rainfall for Dec = 113.2 mm; no rainfall on 10–15 Dec, except 13 Dec = 2.1 mm a

674 deaths, 19,952 houses destroyed totally or partially7

Marikina Valley 8 Aug 2012

Southwest monsoon rains (hanging habagat)

1,007.4 mm 3-day maximum rainfall (6-8 Aug) was almost twice the average monthly total in Aug = 504.2 mm; 425.5 mm 10-day rainfall on 27 Jul – 5 Aug formed 84 % of average monthly totala

National Capital Region: 90,121 families, 419,555 people affected, 41 dead, 4 injured, 2 missing8

Source: ESSC, 2013

Formula for Disaster: R = H x E x V

Disasters occur only

when people are on the

path of natural

hazards. ADRC

2004: Quezon Province, Philippines (3 consecutive typhoons)

Real, Infanta & General Nakar

(Quezon Province)

29 Nov 2004 Typhoon Unding (14–21 Nov) Violeta (22–23 Nov)

Winnie (30 Nov–04 Dec)

370 mm recorded on 29 Nov before rain gauge was toppled; 272.4 mm precedent rainfall (15 – 28 Nov, Infanta station)2

2004: Quezon Province, Philippines (Debris floods)

Infanta & General Nakar Municipalities (Quezon Province, Philippines) • 1,462 people dead • 361 missing • 135,000 people displaced • 38,000 totally damaged houses • 134,000 partially damaged houses

Indirect Impacts: Coping and Adaptation

Infanta Municipality, Quezon Province after 2004 disaster

Indirect Impact of Policy Response to 2004 Disaster in REINA

• Knee-jerk reaction: President issued log ban

• Impact: Small-scale tree farmers in Mindanao lost 15 years of investment

Typhoon Sendong passed through 7 watersheds in Northern Mindanao.

Cagayan de Oro City , Misamis Oriental Province

16 Dec 2011

Tropical Storm Sendong

180.9mm 24-hour rainfall on 16 Dec exceeded the average monthly total rainfall for Dec=113.2 mm; no rainfall on 10–15 Dec, except 13 Dec = 2.1 mm

1,268 deaths 6,071 injured 52,435 houses destroyed totally or partially 1.1 million people affected P1.7 billion cost of damages ($76M)

Source: Dexter Lo, XU-DRRM Story, Presentation during XU-ESSC Project Launch on Carmen Disaster Risk Assessment, 2013

Health Impacts

Source: ESSC Carmen Flood Hazard Assessment (draft report), Oct 2013

New Bataan, Compostela Valley, 2013

Weathering of the riverbed is a concern.

Indirect Impacts: Displacement, Relocation

Relocating to equally unsafe areas: The Case of Payatas Scavengers Homeowners Association (PSHAI) in Miraculous Subdivision, Rodriguez Municipality, Rizal Province

SOCIAL CONTRACTING WITH NATURE

Indirect Impacts: Learning how to Cope and Adapt

Mechanisms in Bgy. Carmen

Household level Community level

Pre- •Monitoring weather reports (TV, radio) •Monitoring rainfall/flooding in upland municipalities •Secure furniture and appliances •Tying up of house posts/pillars and roof •Evacuation of family members to safe areas

•Monitoring weather reports (TV, radio) •Monitoring the river’s water level •“Rekurida” or mobile announcements •Prepare emergency kits

During •Sharing of info through text •Evacuation to safe areas

•Evacuation of affected households •Dispatch of Carmen Rescue Team (CaResT)

Post- •Participate in disaster response training •Selling of broken / damaged appliances and household belongings •Construction of second floor

•Undertaking disaster response training •Community clean-up (roads, canals) •Coordination with local/national organizations for psycho-social debriefing, feeding, etc •Tree planting

Source: Field Report on Participatory Disaster Risk Assessment in Barangay Carmen, Cagayan de Oro City, Philippines (ESSC, August 2013)

Creeping disasters in the uplands need equal attention.

Landslide in South Cotabato, Allah Valley

Upper Pulangi, Bukidnon P. Walpole

P. Walpole

New Bataan, Compostela Valley, 2013

Weathering of the river bed is a cause for concern.

Disasters push affected households further into debt.

Mahayag village, Upper Pulangi, Bukidnon

Corn farm in Upper Pulangi, Bukidnon

R. Soriaga

P. Walpole

Swat District, Northwest Frontier Province, Pakistan

At least 100 deaths for an event to be considered as a disaster needing emergency

response (UN ISDR?)

Food for Thought #1

• How can forest departments help local communities and local governments build resilience?

Source: Philippine National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan, 2011-2028

Food for Thought #2 • How can the forest

sector help affected people recover from disasters and rebuild natural capital?

Bohol Chocolate Hills after 7.2 earthquake on 15 Oct 2013, 220 people dead as of 2 Nov 2013

Salamat po.