impact of land resources on food security in pakistan: a
TRANSCRIPT
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Impact of Land Resources on Food Security in Pakistan: A Case Study of
Sindh Province
By Ali Hassan Halepoto
The Thesis is submitted to Shah Abdul Latif University for fulfillment of the Requirement for the
Doctor of Philosophy in Commerce
Department of Commerce Faculty of Management Sciences
Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur
2015
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Impact of Land Resources on Food Security in Pakistan: A Case Study of
Sindh Province
Ph.D Thesis
The Thesis is submitted to Shah Abdul Latif University for fulfillment of the Requirement for the Doctor of
Philosophy in Commerce
By
Ali Hassan Halepoto
Name of the Supervisor Prof. Dr. Asandas Manwani
Department of Management Sciences Isra University, Hyderabad
Name of the Co-Supervisor
Prof. Dr. Ghulam Murtaza Maitlo Dean
Faculty of Management Sciences Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur
Department of Commerce Faculty of Management Sciences
Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur
2015
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In the name of Allah the most Beneficent, the most Merciful, Who enabled me to complete this work;
Oh Allah! Thee alone I worship,
Thee Alone I pray for success.
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DEDICATION
This research work is dedicated to my
PARENTS
They helped me
throughout my academic career,
their motivation and encouragement
enabled me to attain the highest ends of my educational career .
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DECLARATION
I hereby declare that this thesis has been composed entirely by
myself and that all the work carried out herein is also my own,
except where specifically stated.
Ali Hassan Halepoto
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CERTIFICATE
Certified that the research work contained in the thesis entitled
“Impact of Land Resources on Food Security in Pakistan: A
Case Study of Sindh Province” by Mr. Ali Hassan Halepoto
under my supervision and guidance. His research work is original
and his thesis is worthy of presentation to Shah Abdul Latif
University, Khairpur, for award of Degree of Doctor of
Philosophy (Ph.D) in Commerce.
Prof. Dr. Asandas Manwani Supervisor Department of Management Sciences Isra University, Hyderabad Prof. Dr. Ghulam Murtaza Maitlo Co-Supervisor Dean Faculty of Management Sciences Shah A. Latif University, Khairpur
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I wish to express my gratitude and sincere thanks to Professor Dr. Asandas
Manwani for accepting me as his research fellow and for serving as my Professor. He was providing overall guidance, support and encouragement during my PhD Program. Dr. Manwani was kind enough to have number of
discussions with me, not only this, he provided me the necessary documents and reports but also shared his valuable scholarly insights in the subject, without his personal interest, encouragement and push from time to time it
would not have been possible to accomplish this research work. My thanks are also to late Co-Supervisor Prof. Dr. Lutuf Ali Phulpoto, former
Dean, Faculty of Management Sciences, Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur, who had promoted a research culture at the campus and has encouraged the young teachers to involve themselves in research work.
I am thankful to Co-Supervisor Professor Dr. Ghulam Murtaza Maitlo, Dean, Faculty of Management Sciences, Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur, who helped me in analyzing the graphs of my research.
I am very thankful to Prof. Dr. Muhammad Aslam Memon, Chairman Department of Commerce for his scholarly input and regular support.
Sincere thanks go to Professor Dr. Muhammad Bachal Jamali, Department of Commerce, Shah Abdul Latif University Khairpur for his valuable support.
My thanks are to Prof. Dr. Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto, Department of Economics, Shah A. Latif University for his technical suggestions.
I am deeply grateful to the several institutions which generously helped me in data collection.
I am also grateful to Mr. Zia Bashir, Chief Librarian, Library State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi, for his cooperation while collecting material for research
work. Finally, I am grateful the administration, Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur
for allowing me to get registration in PhD.
Ali Hassan Halepoto
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ABSTRACT
The purpose of this research is to analyze impact of Land resources to
maintain food security in Pakistan. This research study is conducted through primary and secondary data. Following the survey method 450 growers were selected randomly from three districts Khairpur, Sukkur
and Ghotki from Sindh Province of Pakistan. From each district 150 respondents were chosen. They were classified viz. 120 small growers,
20 middle growers and 10 large growers.
In this way, 360 small growers, 60 middle growers and 30 large growers
were interviewed from all selected districts.
The economy of surveyed districts is dependent on agriculture sector. The theoretical aspect of research was examined regarding increasing
trends of population and food grains output. Various measures were taken by the policymakers, but food security could not be maintained.
The total land holding of survey districts was 4,995 acres. Out of which 3,625 acres were cultivated by the growers which resulted 73% and
1,370 acres could not be cultivated by them that stood 27%.
The small growers had 1870 acres in all survey districts. They cultivated 1,115 acres that stood 60% and uncultivated areas remained 40%. The
middle growers possessed 840 acres and they brought land 620 acres under cultivation that stood 74% and 26% remained uncultivated. The
large growers had 2,265 acres and they cultivated 1890 areas that
resulted 84% and 16% land remained uncultivated.
It is analyzed from the data that average yearly income of small growers
stood Rs. 125,711/- middle growers income Rs. 465,041/- and large growers income Rs. 2,386,898/- in district Khairpur during survey
year 2011-12.
In district Sukkur the average annual income of small growers stood Rs.
141,476/- middle growers income Rs. 532,349/- and large growers
income Rs. 3,541,563. In district Ghotki the average annual income of small growers comprised Rs. 104,739/-, middle growers Rs. 454,838/-
and large growers Rs. 3,262,875/-.
The growers of survey area were cultivating overall 73% land and 27% remained uncultivated. Mostly small growers and middle growers were
suffering due to lacking of irrigation facility and loan facility from the concerned institutions. Pakistan has been importing food grains
continuously and spending huge foreign exchange. In country more
than million 8 hectares of land resources are lying uncultivated. This requires proper macro policy of the government. If 50% of uncultivated
land is brought under cultivation, it will increase the output of food
grains on the one side and on the other side foreign exchange will be saved.
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Furthermore, this will maintain the food security in the country as well as the stability of rural economy.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Acknowledgement I
Abstract II
List of Contents III
List of Tables VII
List of Figures XI
Description Page No
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
01
1.1 Importance of Land Resources 01
1.2 Food Security in Historical perspectives 02
1.3 Food Security 04
1.4 Problem Definition 06
1.5 Objectives of the Study 07
1.6 Hypotheses 08
1.7 Scope of the Study 08
1.8 Constraints 09
1.9 Limitation of the Study 09
1.10 Organization of the Study 09
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW
10
2.1 Food Security at World Level 10
2.2 Food Security in Islamic Countries 20
2.3 Food Security in Pakistan 32
2.4 Conclusion 42
CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
43
3.1 Introduction 43
3.2 Research Design 43
3.3 Universe 45
3.4 Sampling 46
3.4.1 Sample 47
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3.5 Measurement 48
3.5.1 Classification of Measurement Tools 48
3.6 Questionnaires 49
3.6.1 Type of the Questionnaires 50
3.7 Designing Individual Questions 51
3.8 Level of Measurements 51
3.9 Data Collection 53
3.9.1 Secondary Source of Data Collection 53
3.9.2 Primary Source of Data Collection 54
3.10 Data Analysis 54
3.10.1 Frequency Distribution 54
3.10.2 Percentage of Frequency Distribution 55
3.10.3 Types of Frequency Distribution 55
3.10.4 Testing for Significance level and Region of Rejection 55
3.10.5 Level of Confidence 55
3.11 Data Analyzing Techniques 56
3.12 Research Model 57
3.12.1 Variables of Model 59
3.13 Profile of Sindh Province and Three Districts of Study Area. 62
3.13.1 Geographical Characteristics of Sindh Province 62
3.13.2 Agriculture 62
3.13.3 Livestock Population in Sindh 63
3.13.4 Trade and Industry 63
3.14 General Overview of Khairpur District 64
3.14.1 Agriculture 65
3.14.2 Industry and Trade 65
3.15 General Overview of Sukkur District 66
3.15.1 Agriculture 66
3.15.2 Industry and Trade 67
3.15.3 Agriculture 68
3.15.4 Industry and Trade 69
CHAPTER 4 SITUATION OF AGRICULTURE IN PAKISTAN
DURING 1947-48 TO 1964-65 70
4.1 Agriculture Situation in Pakistan 70
4.2 Land Utilization 72
4.3 Output and Productivity Trends 73
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4.3.1 Wheat 75
4.3.2 Rice 75
4.3.3 Cotton 76
4.3.4 Sugarcane 77
4.4 An Analysis of Agricultural Development during 1947/48 to
1959/60 78
4.5 Food grains Development during 1960/61 – 1964/65 81
CHAPTER 5
NEW TECHNOLOGY AND INPUT POLICY FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
84
5.1 Introduction 84
5.2 Agricultural Inputs 85
5.2.1 Irrigation 85
5.2.2 High Yielding Varieties (HYV) 89
5.2.3 Fertilizer 92
5.2.4 Pesticides 95
5.2.5 Mechanization 96
5.2.6 Agricultural Credit. 104
CHAPTER 6 DEVELOPMENT OF FOOD GRAINS IN
RELATION TO POPULATION REQUIREMENTS
109
6.1 Land Under Cultivation of Food grains From 1965/66 – 1969/70. 109
6.2 Cultivated Area and Output of Food grains during
1970/71 –1976/77 Non-Plan Period. 111
6.3 Cultivated Area and Food grains Production during
1978/79 – 1982/83. 114
6.4 Cultivated Area and Output of Food grains during
1983/84 – 1989/90. 116
6.5 Changes in Cultivated Area and Production of Food grains
during 1990/91 – 1999/2000 and 2000/01 – 2011/12. 117
6.6 Food Requirements in Relation to Population Growth in
Pakistan. 121
6.7 Population Growth 122
6.8 Per Capita Availability of Food. 125
CHAPTER 7
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 130
7.1 Introduction 130
7.2 Theoretical Analysis of Research 130
7.2.1 Analysis of Agriculture from 1947/48 – 1964/65 131
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7.2.2 Analysis of New Technology 132
7.3 Analysis of Primary Data in Study Area 133
7.3.1 Analysis of Farm Holding in Survey Area. 133
7.3.2 Cultivated and Uncultivated Area of Survey Farms. 135
7.3.3 Factors of Uncultivated Land 140
7.3.4 Analysis of Uncultivated Land of Survey Area 146
7.4 Analysis of Output of Food grains of Survey Area during 2011/12
148
7.5 Analysis of Income and Expenditure of Survey Area during
2011/12 152
7.6 Analysis Yearly and Monthly Average Income of Growers of
Survey Area during 2011/12 158
7.7 Analysis of Model 163
7.8 Findings 165
7.8.1 Theoretical Findings 165
7.8.2 Findings of Survey Data 168
CHAPTER 8 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
172
8.1 Conclusions 172
8.2 Recommendations 174
8.2.1 Proper Management of Water Resources 175
8.2.2 Timely Supply of Water to Growers 176
8.2.3 Political Involvement should be avoided 176
8.2.4 Illegal Supply of Irrigation Facility be checked 177
8.2.5 Imperfect Distribution of Water 177
8.3 Credit System be Improved 177
8.3.1 Establishment of Credit Centre at Tehsil Level 178
8.3.2 Loaning Procedure should be Made Easy 178
8.3.3 Proper Management of Micro Credit System 178
8.3.4 Political Involvement be Removed 178
8.3.5 Conducting Regular Agriculture Credit Survey 179
8.4 Further Areas of Study 179
Bibliography 180
List of Districts 187
Questionnaire 192
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LIST OF TABLES
Sr. Table No.
Particulars Page No
1 3.1 Distribution of Sample Farm Size in Districts Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghokti of Sindh Province, Pakistan
47
2 3.2 Nominal Scale Ranking 52
3 3.3 Ordinal Scale Ranking 52
4 3.4 Interval Scale Ranking 53
5 3.5 Production of Major Crops from 2007-08 / 2011-12 62
6 3.6 Livestock Population in Sindh (In 000) 63
7 3.7 Cultivated Area and Production of Main Crops District Khairpur
65
8 3.8 Cultivated Area and Crops District Sukkur 67
9 3.9 Cultivated Area and Main Crops District Ghotki 68
10 4.1 Composition of Various Groups in Sindh Assembly 72
11 4.2 Land Utilization During 1947-48 TO 1959-60 73
12 4.3 Tends of Principal Crops Area and Production 1947-48 to 1559-60
74
13 4.4 Area and Production of Wheat 1947/48 to 1959/60 75
14 4.5 Area and Production of Rice 1947/48 to 1959/60 76
15 4.6 Area and Production of Cotton 1947/48 to 1559/60 77
16 4.7 Area and Production of Sugarcane 1947/48 to 1959/60
78
17 4.8 Average Annual Growth Rate of Food grains in Relation to Population Growth Rate and Import of
Wheat
80
18 4.9 Land Utilization under Food grains Crops from
1960/61 to 1964/65 82
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19 4.10 Food grains Production from 1960/61 to 1964/65 82
20 5.1 Progress of Water Availability (MAF) 1965/66 to 2011/12
88
21 5.2 Public Sector Expenditure on Agriculture and Irrigation Development During Various Five Years Plan, in Pakistan
89
22 5.3 Distribution of Improved Seeds of Various Crops
1971/72 to 1999/2000 (000 tons) 90
23 5.4 Distribution of Improved Seed in Agricultural Sector
from 2001/02 to 2011/12 in (000 tons) 92
24 5.5 Consumption of Fertilizer by Growers in Pakistan from 1966/67 to 2011-12
94
25 5.6 Import, Production, Consumption and Value of Pesticides from 1986/2011
96
26 5.7 Number of Privately Owned Tractors by Market 98
27 5.8 Number of Private Tractors by Horse Power 99
28 5.9 Number of Tractors by Type of Ownership 99
29 5.10 Farms Reporting Use of Important Machinery (by Size of Farm)
100
30 5.11 Production and Import of Tractors from 1986/87 to 2011/12
101
31 5.12 Total Number of Public and Private Tube wells in Pakistan from 1980/81 to 2011/12
103
32 6.1 Cultivated Area of Food grains in Pakistan from
1965/66 to 1969/70 109
33 6.2 Production of Food grains from 1965/66 to 1969/70 110
34 6.3 Cultivated Area of Food grains in Pakistan from 1970/71 to 1976/77
112
35 6.4 Production of Food grains in Pakistan from 1970/71 to 1976/77
113
36 6.5 Performance of Cultivated Area and Food grains Production During the Fifth Plan Period (1978/79 to
1982/83)
115
37 6.6 Performance of Cultivated Area and Food grains
Production During 1983/84 to 1989/90 in Pakistan 117
38 6.7 Cultivated Area and Food grains Production in Pakistan from 1990/91 to 1999/2000
118
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39 6.8 Cultivated Area and Food grains Production in
Pakistan during 2000/01 to 2011/12 120
40 6.9 World’s Top Six Populated Countries in 2003 and Estimated 2050
122
41 6.10 Population Growth in Pakistan 124
42 6.11 Per Capita Availability of Food grains from 1947/48 to 1985/86
125
43 6.12 Annual Growth Rate of Per Capita Availability of Major
Food grains in Pakistan 1950/51 to 1985/86 126
44 6.13 Per Capita Annual Food Availability from 1986/87 to
2009/10 in Pakistan 127
45 6.14 Import of Wheat from 1961 – 2012 from Abroad 129
46 7.1 Total Farm Holding of Survey Area and Average Size of Farm in District Khairpur During 2011/2012, Sindh Province, Pakistan
134
47 7.2 Total Farm Holding of Survey Area and Average Size of Farm in Sukkur During 2011/12, Sindh Province,
Pakistan
134
48 7.3 Total Farm Holding and Average Farm Size of Survey Area in Ghotki District During 2011/12,Sindh Province, Pakistan
135
49 7.4 Cultivated and Uncultivated Area of Sample Farms During 2011/12 in District Khairpur Sindh Province,
Pakistan
136
50 7.5
Cultivated and Uncultivated Area of Sample Farms
During 2011/12 in District Sukkur, Sindh Province, Pakistan
138
51 7.6 Cultivated and Uncultivated Area of Sample Farms During 2011/12 in District Ghotki, Sindh Province, Pakistan
139
52 7.7 Irrigation Facility to Growers in Khairpur District During Survey Period 2011/12 Sindh Province, Pakistan
140
53 7.8 Irrigation Facility to Growers in Sukkur District During
Survey Period 2011/12 Sindh Province of Pakistan 141
54 7.9 Irrigation Facility to Growers in Ghotki District During
Survey Period 2011/12 Sindh Province, Pakistan 142
55 7.10 Irrigation Facility to Small, Middle and Large Growers in Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki Districts Sindh Province of Pakistan During Survey Period 2011/12
142
56 7.11
Facility to Loan Disbursement by Credit Institutions Among Different Growers in Khairpur, Sukkur and
Ghotki Districts of Survey Farms During 2011/12 Sindh Province Pakistan
145
17
57 7.12
Cultivated and Uncultivated Area in Khairpur, Sukkur
and Ghotki Districts of Sample Farms During 2011/12 Sindh Province of Pakistan
147
58 7.13 Output of Winter Crop of Survey Farms in District Khairpur During Winter Season 2011/12
149
59 7.14 Output of Summer Crop District Khairpur During Year 2011/12
149
60 7.15 Output of Winter Crop of Survey Farms District Sukkur
During 2011/12 150
61 7.16 Output of Summer Crop of Survey Farms District
Sukkur During 2011/12 151
62 7.17 Output of Winter Crop of Survey Farms District Ghotki During 2011/12
152
63 7.18 Output of Summer Crop of Survey Farms District Ghotki During 2011/12
152
64 7.19 Income of Growers in District Khairpur During Winter Crop Season 2011/12
153
65 7.20 Income of Growers in District Khairpur During Summer
Crop Season 2011/12 153
66 7.21 Income of Growers in District Sukkur During Winter
Crop Season 2011/12 155
67 7.22 Income of Growers in District Sukkur During Summer crop Season 2011/12
155
68 7.23 Income of Growers in District Ghotki During Winter Crop Season 2011/12
156
69 7.24 Income of Growers in District Ghotki During Summer Crop Season 2011/12
157
70 7.25 Yearly and Monthly Income of Each Grower in District
Khairpur During 2011/12 158
71 7.26 Yearly and Monthly Income of Each Grower in District
Sukkur During 2011/12 160
72 7.27 Yearly and Monthly Income of Each Grower in District Ghotki During 2011/12
161
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LIST OF FIGURES
Sr. Figure
No. Particulars
Page No
1 4.1 Land utilization under food grain. Crops from 1960/61-1964/65
Million Hectares
83
2 4.2 Food grain production from 1960/61-1964/65 Million Tons
83
3 5.1 Progress of Water Availability (MAF)
1965-66 to 2011-12 88
4 5.2 Distribution of Improved Seed in Agricultural Sector from 2001-02 to 2011-12. (In 000 Tons) 92
5 5.3 Consumption of Fertilizer by Growers in Pakistan
from 1966-67 to 2011-12 94
6 5.4 Production and Import of Tractors
from 1986-87 – 2011-12 102
7 5.5 Total Number of Public and Private Tube Wells in Pakistan From 1980/81 to
2011/12 104
8 6.1 Cultivated Area of Food grains in Pakistan from 1965-66 to 1969-70
110
9 6.2 Production of Food grains in Pakistan
from 1965/66 to 1969/70 (In million tons) 110
10 6.3 Cultivated Area of Food grains in Pakistan from 1970/71 to 1976/77 (In million hectares)
112
11 6.4 Production of Food grains in Pakistan from 1970/71 to 1976/77 (In million tons)
114
12 6.5 Performance of Cultivated Area and Food Grains Production During the Fifth Plan Period (1978/79 to 1982/83)
116
13 6.6 Performance of food grains production during 1983-84
to 1989-90 in Pakistan 117
14 6.7 Cultivated Area and Food grains production in
Pakistan from 1990/91 to 1999/2000 119
15 6.8 Cultivated Area and Food Grains Production in Pakistan During 2000/01 to 2011/12
121
16 6.9 World’s Top Six Populated Countries in 2003 and Estimated 2050
123
17 6.10 Population Growth in Pakistan 124
19
18 6.11 Per Capita Annual Food Availability
from 1986-87 to 2009-2010 in Pakistan 128
19 7.1 Cultivated and Uncultivated Area of Sample Farms During 2011-2012 in District-Khairpur, Sindh Province, Pakistan
136
20 7.2 Cultivated and Uncultivated Area of Sample Farms During 2011-2012 in District Sukkur, Sindh Province.
Pakistan
138
21 7.3
Cultivated and Uncultivated Area of Sample Farms
During 2011-2012 in District Ghotki, Sindh Province, Pakistan
139
22 7.4
Irrigation Facility to Small, Middle and Large Growers in Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki Districts, Sindh Provence of Pakistan During Survey Period
2011-2012
143
23 7.5
Facility to Loan Disbursement by Credit Institutions
Among Different Growers in Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki Districts of Survey Farms During 2011-2012 Sindh Province Pakistan
145
24 7.6 Cultivated and Uncultivated Area in Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki Districts of Sample Farms During
2011-2012 Sindh Province of Pakistan
147
25 7.7 Yearly and Monthly Income of Each Grower in District Khairpur During 2011-12
159
26 7.8 Yearly and Monthly Income of Each Grower in District Sukkur During 2011-12
160
27 7.9 Yearly and Monthly Income of Each Grower in District Ghotki During 2011-12
162
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CHAPTER 01 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Importance of Land Resources
The land resources play a vital role in Pakistan agriculture and, the economy
of the country is dependent on the agriculture. It contributes 21 percent to
GDP and employing 44 percent of the labor force (Economic Survey, 2011-
12). More than two third of Pakistan population lives in rural areas and their
livelihood continues to resolve around agriculture and allied activities. As
mentioned above that agriculture sector is a part of land resources. It provides
food grain about 180 million people of the country. Pakistan is the sixth largest
country of the population in the world (Economic Survey, 2011-2012). The
continuous growth rate of population is expected to get doubled by 2050.
As regards the land resources in Pakistan, the total cultivated area of land has
increased about 50% during last 65 years while population rose more than 5
times. The urban areas have been expanded over seven fold, settling
pressure of population on cultivated land.
Eliminating poverty, hunger and food insecurity are essential goals of the
state. Food security and economic growth mutually interact and reinforce
each other during the development process. A country which cannot produce
the needed food quantity and has no resources to buy food from the
international market to meet its needs is not food sovereign state, food
security thus becomes pre requisite of national security which is generally
ignored. The extra-ordinary rise in food prices in later part of the first decade
of 21st century raised an alarm bell about food security, particularly for the
developing countries like Pakistan where majority of population are poor. In
order to achieve food-secure and pro-poor agricultural growth, Pakistan needs
21
to adopt a comprehensive approach towards increasing productivity of all food
crops and livestock sector.
Managing food security in Pakistan requires an understanding about the
dimensions of food insecurity, what are the future challenges, and how
agricultural policies affect food supply and incomes, the poor vulnerable in
rural and urban areas, and what is required to be done. The main focus
should be given to land resources of the country for achieving food and
nutritional security for a growing population in Pakistan.
1.2 Food Problem in Historical Perspectives
In Historical perspective problem of food is as old as the man himself. When
Malthus in 1798 proposed thesis that population, if unchecked, increases
geometrically while food increases for subsistence increases only
arithmetically, there were still vast areas in the world that could be developed
relatively easily (Arnon Isaac, 1986). This is no longer the case and the actual
cultivated area of world is far from prevailing, the calculated minimum
adequate diet for the present world population.
Agricultural development is possible basically in two different ways which are,
however, not mutually exclusive: bringing more land under cultivation and
increasing productivity per unit of land.
The first alternative was possible without changing traditional farming
methods, whereas the second was entirely dependent on applying improved
farming techniques. In this, these lay the essential difference between the
significance of land for the traditional grower and for the modern grower. The
modern grower could grow to a large extent, increase production on a given
area by using appropriate inputs, such as fertilizers, irr igation, drainage, etc,
so that in his case, land can be partly replaced by know-how and capital. For
22
the traditional grower, land is the most important means of production and his
only guarantee of survival. As long as the population pressure on the land
was not excessive, even traditional agriculture could produce a sufficiency of
food to maintain an acceptable level of supply. This explains why traditional
agriculture has been able to provide subsistence to a farming population for a
surprisingly long period of its history (Dandekar, 1969). But as growth of
population is over, take the possibility of expanding land-use, the ability of
traditional agriculture to produce even at a subsistence level decreased and a
state of continuous deterioration. This had actually resulted in loss of
productivity of huge land-areas, in irreversible processes. As an example, the
traditional form of land-use in the tropical humid regions-had been surprisingly
stable as long as a critical population density was not exceeded. When once
this occurred, however population pressure resulted in a shortening of period,
and a lengthening of the cultivation period. The result was a rapid decline in
soil fertility, inability of the natural plant cover to reestablish itself and finally
remains destructed of the soil cover by erosion. In this way vast areas in
Central Africa had been lost. Another example is afforded by overgrazing,
frequently a result of population pressure, which has devastated so many of
the natural pastures in the world.
1.3 Food Security
The term food security refers and accesses to adequate amount of food for
meeting dietary energy needs that implied for many as self-sufficiency at the
national level-producing required food domestically (Pinstrup-Andersen, 2009)
A country is self-sufficient in food when it is able to manage supply and
23
demand balance by producing domestically irrespective of whatever the
equilibrium price is which may not be affordable to majority of the population
in developing economy.
The focus of national and global food security is generally on the supply side
of the food equation whether sufficient food is available (Pinstrup-Andersen,
2009). The availability of food however cannot assure the access of the
people to food. To ensure food security at the household or individual level,
the access part needs to be addressed. This lead the World Food Summit in
1996 to redefine the term as food security exists when all people, at all times,
have physical and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to
meet their dietary needs and food preferences for a healthy and active life.
This definition describes five fundamental aspects: availability, access,
stability, nutritional status and preferences of food. All of these components
are influenced by physical, economic, political and other conditions within
community and even within household, and are often destabilized by shocks
such as natural calamities (UK Parliament, 2006).
The availability and access are two major dimensions of food security. The
availability states to quantities of quality/nutritious food available to all people
however, even with enough availability of feed at the country level. Food
availability is a serious concern in areas having, non-availability of arable
lands, and existence of prolonged droughts; this is true for many areas in
Pakistan. The distribution of food stuff in these areas is also negligible.
The access describes to the capacity to produce, buy or acquire appropriate
nutritious food by the households and the individuals (Timer, 2000). It is
observed that the availability of sufficient food at the country or local level
does not guarantee that all people are food secure, since low incomes, lack of
roads and infrastructure. The main cause however is poverty that people lack
24
sufficient purchasing power to acquire required quantities of quality food.
Therefore, both availability and access parts of food security are inseparably
linked to each other (Pinstrup-Andersen, 2009).
The access entails both physical access and economic access. The former
refers to a place where food is available and the latter * entitlement to food
(Sen., 1982). The former requires efficient market infrastructure to have
access of people at low cost. The entitlement can ensue through own
production or having food buying capacity from the market or having access
right to other sources of getting desired food (Staazs, et al. 2009). Therefore,
there is a direct relationship between poverty and food insecurity since the
very poor cannot take precautionary measures against food insecurity and
thus they are the first to be vulnerable to it (Cullet, 2003. Hermann, 2006).
Stability explains to consistent supply of nutritious food at the national level as
well as stability in access to food at the household and individuals levels. It is
therefore directly affected by the performance of the agriculture sector. Only a
small proportion of consumers in developing countries can afford to store food
for the whole year. Therefore, besides production, stability requires better
management of domestic production, food markets integration, and rational
and effective use of buffer stocks and trade (FAO, 2002).
Pakistan has faced severe floods during 1975, 1992 and 2010 and droughts
in 1970/71/72/, 1974/75 1998, 2000, and 2001. Fluctuations/shortages in food
grains production have therefore been very common in Pakistan. At times, the
government has had to import significant quantities of food items to meet the
shortages. In order to meet the shortages in deficit/urban areas and save
consumers from high food prices, the government has been actively pursuing
the policies of support/procurement prices, storage and distribution though at
a very high cost. From the above discussion it is observed that food insecurity
25
in Pakistan still continues due to poverty, water and environment disasters
and conflicts, increasing population and expanding sites spread out
productive land, reducing the agricultural production including food
production. This indicates food security is challenging issue in future for
Pakistan.
1.4 Problem Definition
Food is basic need for the people of Pakistan. It is supplied from the
agriculture sector. In this sector about 80 percent small growers are engaged.
Their size of land is below subsistence holding. They usually face financial
and irrigation constraints at the time of ploughing land. So, they do not bring
entire land under cultivation. Due to low income, they purchase input from the
local business men on loan and same is returned by them after harvesting
season.
Population of the country has been increasing continuously since the
inception of Pakistan. According to census report 1951, population of Pakistan
was 3.6 crore and has reached to 18 crore. The increasing population has
created more demand for food. The domestic production does not meet the
requirements of the country. Therefore it is the responsibility of the state to
arrange food for the people of the country. Keeping in view the above
mentioned problem, the government used to import sufficient quantity of food
from abroad and spends more foreign exchange every year.
This creates heavy burden on the economy of the country. As discussed
above that 80 percent small growers are involved in agriculture sector and
they do not cultivate their entire cultivatable land due to constraints of capital
and irrigation. If uncultivable cultural land is brought under cultivation through
government, macro policy it will enhance the output of the food grains and
26
solves the problem of food insecurity. Furthermore, the income of growers will
be increased and foreign exchange be saved.
1.5 Objectives of the Study. The Specific Objectives of Research Study are as under:
1) To analysis the position of agricultural sector in relation to food
growing
2) To examine food requirements in relation to population growth
3) To examine the use of land resources under food crops
4) To analyze foreign exchange expenditure on the import of food
grains
5) To suggest measures for future improvement in yield of food
grains to maintain food security in Pakistan.
1.6 Hypotheses
The following Hypotheses are tested for Research.
1) The consumption of food grains increases with population
growth.
2) Production is not maintained as compared to population
growth.
3) Growers do not cultivate entire land due to lack of capital and
irrigation facility.
4) Increase in production of food grains will maintain food
security as well as save foreign exchange earnings.
27
5) Increase in production will enhance income of growers.
1.7 Scope of the Study
The study is concerned to output of food grains in relation to requirement of
the population in the country. The deficiency of food has been increasing
continuously. So in this regard, growers are asked what methods of cultivation
are being applied and also types of constraints are being faced by them.
During interaction with them it was pointed out that there are two types of
growers such as progressive and an average. The progressive growers use
modern techniques of cultivation and they get more output from their farms.
The average growers do not apply modern techniques due to lacking of
capital. In addition to their education level is very low. The policy makers
should focus to small growers because they are about 80 percent in the
country. Therefore this study provides ways and means in general and
particular for small growers for increasing the production of agriculture sector
in future.
1.8 Constraints
The growers mostly have primary, middle education and some of them
illiterate. They do not maintain any record of their expenditure as well as
income from the output and expenditure. However, they possess remarkable
memories of their farm operations and use to recall things when they are
asked during cross questioning. Many visits are being made to them for the
collection of the data. Besides the travelling in remote areas of rural Sindh
and contacting growers is very difficult Job.
1.9 Limitation of the Study
28
The research study is academic in nature. It requires more time and financial
recourses. Due to financial constraints the study is confined to three districts
viz. Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki of Sindh province of Pakistan.
1.10 Organization of the Study
This research study covers eight chapters. The first chapter describes
introduction along with problem statement, objectives, hypotheses, scope,
constraints, and limitation of the study. In second chapter review of literature
is discussed. The third chapter focuses on the research methodology. In
fourth chapter situation of agriculture in Pakistan during 1947-48 to 1964-65 is
mentioned. The fifth chapter highlights new technology and input policy for
agricultural development. In sixth chapter development of food grains in
relation to population requirements is analyzed. The seventh chapter
describes results and discussion of the research. In eighth chapter
conclusions and recommendations are discussed.
CHAPTER 02 REVIEW OF LITERATURE
This chapter describes a brief review of important studies regarding food
security. It examines increasing population growth as compared to food
security at world level and also Pakistan. Furthermore priority was given for
suitable measures to enhance food grains for maintaining food security.
2.1 Food Security at World Level
1. Verberng, Peter, Han, Detach (2013) have analyzed land system
change and food security in their research. They have focused that
change in land system should be made and it bring food security at
world level. The population would increase up to 9.2 billion and it would
be challenge for policymakers to produce more of percent food for the
29
increasing population. Food security would be determined by providing
food availability and overall output from the agricultural land. It was
further pointed out that the starting point of land system was the
assessment of available land for expansion of agricultural output area.
The available land was diminishing in the context of the land demand
for production. Therefore, it was focused in unused and degraded land
for grain production. The scholars have suggested that local studies
should be conducted according to production system.
2. Rosin, Christopher (2013) has conducted research regarding food
security in New Zealand. The author first has given emphasis on
increasing quantity of food grains at world level. But increasing quantity
could not be achieved and it did not reduce hunger mostly in
developing and under developed countries. He further pointed out the
rapid rise of prices of food grains during 2007/2008 and again in 2011
created food crisis at global level. In this regard he examined the role
of productive ideology of New Zealand pastoral growers for promoting
more sustainable production of meat, milk and wool through the
mitigation of greenhouse gases. In this connection he noted impacts of
environmental management practice.
3. Carletto, Cologero, Zezza, Alberto and Banerjee, Raka (2013) have
analyzed better measurement of house hold food security. They have
focused in global increasing food prices and attention was paid to world
food situation. They had evaluated climate change, population and
income growth keeping in view enhancing prices, but the international
community lacked a consensus in the core of household food security
indicators which were essential in order to properly measure food
30
security throughout the world. It could not be achieved the use to a lack
of global co-coordinators. They further pointed out an inefficient
method for collection information on various aspects of food and
nutrition security quality and quantity were responsible in measurement
and monitoring. With the better co-ordination of the global institutions
and survey efforts food security measurement could be improved.
The research attempted to identify the factors of strategies prepared
combination of short term and long term methodological advancements
to reduce the existing trends of poor coordination and slow steps of
innovation in food security measurement and monitoring.
4. Bindra, Stya (2013) has examined sustainable integrated water
resources management for energy production and food security in
Libya. This research highlighted an overview regarding sustainable
integrated water resources management at world, regional, country
and local level for increasing ecology output and security of food. The
increasing demand of water, energy and food at world level were
interdependent to one another. Food production required great use of
water about 80-90/% and electricity accounted about 8 percent use of
water. Fertilizer output and transportation need for around 30/% of
global energy. Besides, the population of world would increase to 9.2
billion by 2050. The increasing population would enhance demand of
food 70% and energy 40%. These issues created stressing shortage of
food, water and energy.
The authors highlighted that how integrated sustainable water
resources would be checked. They suggested that these issues could
31
be tackled by promoting water resource efficiency and that could also
help in achieving energy and food security.
5. Lynich kenneth (2013) has conducted research and analyzed
urban agriculture and food security in post conflict free town,
Sierra Leone. He pointed out that country remained long period
under political instability and was ranked among the poorest
countries of the world. There was the decade-long civil war during
1950s which resulted that rural people started to shift to capital
city. Due to civil war, a large number of rural people left their
villages who were engaged in agricultural sector, created food
shortage. This research examined the demand of urban areas as it
increased due to shifting of people from rural areas. The most
important aspect of this research was the challenge of feeding
urban population growth.
6. Bremmer, Jason (2012) has conducted research on population
and food security as Africa’s challenge. There are about 856
million people in sub-Saharan Africa and from four person one
lacks adequate food. Prices of food are high and continue
droughts push the people into poverty. The population would be
about 2 billion in 2050. This would create more challenge for food
security in future. The author has further examined that 30 million
children in sub-Saharan Africa are under weight and 40/% of the
population is under age 15 years. This increases the size of
population and creates more need for food.
32
The author further pointed out 2/3 population belong to rural areas and
mostly they are engaged in agriculture sector. Their size of farm is less
than 2 hectares. The same will be subdivided as number of family
members increase. This will again expand more poverty because of
low yield. In this regard, the author has suggested launching family
planning program immediately to reduce growth rate. Further more in
agricultural sector improved input and new techniques of cultivation be
adopted for enhancing the output of food grain. The donor countries
should come forward for investment.
7. Full brook, David (2010) has examined food as security at world
level. Population at world level is about 6.5 billion and would
increase to 9.5 billion by 2050. He pointed out that climate
changes bring uncertainties for food as security. First priority
should be given to food security because it is essential for the
survival of the people. The author has quoted the example of
Laos. He found that food security in that country is very poor. He
observed that state has given first priority to big-push
development that invites foreign investors for investing capital in
order to exploit natural resources. Secondary priority is given to
food security.
The country possesses 23.08 million hectares. Out of which million
15.98 hectares cover mountainous area. Agricultural land is about
million 2.129 hectares which is not sufficient for meeting the
requirements of food of the people. Demand has been increasing
keeping in view growth of population. The author has suggested that,
33
need of food can be maintained by the input of food or intensive
cultivation in the country.
8. Andersen, Per, Pinstrup (2009) has analyzed food security and its
measurement in his research article. He has described term food
security in various ways. He means that enough food is available
at the global, national, community and household level. He further
explains if sufficient food is available at what price and whether it
meets energy and nutrient requirements.
He further explains that national food security use, this term in the
sense a country which is self sufficient in food and meets the demand
of the people. On the other hand if it does not produce food according
to the requirements of the people and not sufficient foreign currency to
import the same, would not be food security.
The author also measures food security at the household level. If
household is considered food secure, it indicates the ability to acquire
the food required by the members of house hold. He has concluded
that it would be useful for monitoring an important aspect of the well
being of household for designing, implementation and evaluation of
policies.
9. Hanirja, Munir, and Qureshi, Ejaz (2010) have focused on global
water crisis and future food security in their research. The
agricultural sector has been remained dependent on water since
centuries. The population has been increasing continuously in the
world and needs more water and food. It has created problem of
water scared and food insecurity at global level. The authors had
34
conducted research on this important issue facing by the world.
Besides, climate change was another issue which also decreased
the production of food grains. They further pointed out that world
population would be 9 billion by 2050 and the yield of food grains
would not be increased at the same level. The global human
population may hit a record 9 billion people by 2050. The much
needed increase in food production is not forthcoming. Crop
yields are not increasing fast enough either. Instead, limits are
faced due to carrying capacity in some areas of the world. Public
investments in agricultural research and irrigation are decreasing.
The analysis showed that, population and income growth would increase
the demand for food and water. Irrigation would the first sector to lose
water as water competition by non-agricultural uses increase and water
scarcity intensifies. Increasing water scarcity in system, create problems in
health and services. Feeding the 2050 population would require some
12,400 Km of water, up from 6800 km used today. This would leave a
water gap of about 3300 km even after improving efficiency in irrigated
agriculture, improving water management, and upgrading of rained
agriculture. This gap would lead to a food gap unless concerted actions
are taken today. Disrupted access to energy could further deepen the food
production gap. The currently unknown adaptation deficit in water
management as a response to climate change poses further challenges to
future food security. Food consumption and its immense role in the
demand for and types of food and volumes of water, and unfair trade
relations must be recognized as challenges to food security. The
developing economies and especially the African economies dismal crop
35
yields for many reasons but one of the most important is global food prices
over the past half century. Farmers never had a chance to make a surplus
and then invest as governments could not resist the opportunity to import
cheap food.
A fundamental shift is needed in water and energy used in food systems
policy to avoid a severe food crisis in the future. Enhancing food security
required governments and donors to deal forcefully with the underlying
issues driving food security, such as population growth, widespread
poverty and income inequality, climate change, water scarcity, land
degradation, energy and food price inflation. This required investments for
tackling climate change conserving water and energy resources
developing, adopting and adapting climate resilient varieties; modernizing
irrigation; shoring up domestic food supplies; reengaging in agriculture for
further development; and reforming global food market and trade. The
issues and approaches may be well accepted but investing in the global
commons the greatest challenge faced by the global community.
Unprecedented global cooperation required to address the institutional,
governance and financial constraints to ensure future food security for all
by 2050 and beyond.
10. Fengying, Nie, Jieying, Bi and Xuebiamo, Zhang (2010) conducted
research on China’s food security status. The authors examined that
China had made good progress in enhancing agricultural production,
incomes, and the nutritional status of its population since the 1996
world food summit. It had maintained self sufficiency requirement of
the food about 95 percent and attributed greatly at world level food
security. Availability of food improved grower’s income and
36
expenditure increased but consumption of food and sugar
decreased. These achievements were made with the assistance
donors. But due disparity between urban and rural areas in china’s
there was found food insecurity in some areas and also among some
regions. It was imperative to identify these areas and population for
improving the overall food security with better and planned
measures.
11. Azadi, Hussain and Hopeter (2010) have emphasized in genetically
modification and organic crops in under developing countries as an
option to maintain food security. They pointed out that food grains
could be enhanced by applying genetically modified (GM) in farms.
Many countries had developed strategies technology to improve their
productivity in different fields. This technology required trained
scientists and also better infrastructure. It provided potential
contribution to sustainable agricultural productivity and new inputs
for small growers such technology required proper policy by the
state. It could be useful for developing countries but the developing
and under developed countries were unable to introduce the same
for increasing output of food grains due to lacking capital and
technical manpower.
12. Kumar, Bimlesh (2009) had analyzed in their research importance of
bio energy for maintained food security in India. Fuel energy was
reliable for enhancing food grains, they pointed out that
approximately 70% of the population were dependent on agriculture.
Their research was related to district Tumkur based on bio energy
which increased productivity of human laboring. It was applied to
37
waste land to increase supply of energy driving forces behind this
technology development included its positional capacity to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions and to increase growers income,
therefore, it possessed potential benefits such as diversification of
agriculture out domestic energy supply, development of
infrastructures, job creations for rural people and generation of
revenges. They had given an example of oil crisis in Brazil during
1970s how this country diverted technology to bio ethanol and thus
saved large amount of foreign exchange.
The authors examined that the prevailing system of agriculture in India
involved complex mixed cropping livestock. This mixed cropping system
was mostly common in small size farming in rain-fed areas of India. This
technology was applied to district Tumkur and found optional production of
bio energy and its impact on food security.
13. Timmer, Peter (2004) has conducted research in food security and
economic growth in Asian perspective. The main purpose of the
author is that food security exists when all people of any country of
the world have sufficient food in all time to meet their needs. But it
does not happen in all countries. He has pointed out that food
security can be achieved through the government policy. This should
be started from micro to macro policy. He has given the examples of
China and Philippines. By introducing innovation of new technology
in agriculture sector, it effects growth of other sectors of the
economy. In this regard the large countries of Asia made investments
since the 1960s. These countries have raised the productivity of rice
in rural areas and increased the income of the people.
38
Simultaneously infrastructure brings their product easily in urban
markets. This led the development by the government policy to
agricultural research and extension, irrigation and appropriate price
incentives. But it did not bring food security. It can be achieved by
raising productivity per hectare, per worker and adequate incentives.
2.2 Food Security in Islamic Countries
13. Jumah, Hassan, Fahmi (1987) had identified opportunities and
options for integration among Islamic countries to achieve a
higher degree of food security. These options were identified to
meet specific needs as recognized from the assessment of food
security developments and major constraints facing food security
efforts in Islamic countries. The research is divided into three
major parts. The first deals with the changing food security
concepts, while the second deals with food security development
in Islamic countries with special reference to some Arab
countries. The third part deals with an overview of opportunities
and options for integration to reduce food insecurity in the Islamic
countries.
The study discussed the changing food security concepts that would
imply different options and helped in identifying areas for coordination
among Islamic countries. Food crises in developing countries in
general and Islamic countries in particular, did not coordinate efforts to
increase food availability and increase income of growers at the grass-
root level.
39
The study assessed the availability of land, human, and capital
resources in Islamic countries. It showed that Islamic countries
constituted a heterogeneous group with different resource endowments
and stages of development. The diversity in resources could be an
advantage for economic integration and coordination efforts, while
diversity in the stages of development and economic performance
could be an appropriate reason for initiating serious steps to achieve
economic integration in facing food security problems. Major
constraints facing food security efforts in Islamic countries identified
and divided into two major levels. The first deals with the overall factors
pertaining to recent world development, while the second deals with
constraints within the Islamic countries. The study specified
opportunities and options for integration among Islamic countries to
meet food security goals and objectives.
14. Qureshi, Abbas (1987) has analyzed that food and nutrition play
an important role in the development of society as the physical
and mental of the individual who are linked with the quality and
quantity of food. The population of most Islamic countries was
suffering from low Caloric intake and protein deficiency. This was
urging due to deficiency. This was largely due to low agricultural
output and the lack of nutrition awareness. The author had
pointed out three main reasons as under.
(i) Poor water and land management, resulting in low yield
even from the newer varieties.
40
(ii) High pre-harvest and post-harvest losses, which had been
estimated to range from 20% to as a high as 50% for the
more perishable commodities.
(iii) Poor transport and distribution arrangements, which again
produced a considerable loss as well as unquotable
distribution.
The above mentioned factors created food insecurity in Muslim
countries and could be maintained food security by applying short
range and the long range plans.
15. Nour (1987) has analyzed constraints by the Muslim worked
towards food security. The constraints that countries of the
Muslim world have faced in making progress towards achieving
food security were many and varied; some were beyond human
control, though, there could be warning signs which would help in
minimizing their impact. Some were inflicted, such as wars and
mismanagement. Whatever the nature of the constraints, the net
result was always the frustration of the efforts being made by
governments and their agencies to alleviate the suffering of
mainly the poor, the deprived and the hungry among their
populations.
It should be pointed out at the very outset, that this research with forty-
five countries spread over three continents, in a variety of geographic
and climatic zones and of vastly different levels of wealth. Some were
just an island or a group of islands.
41
Food security is essentially an access by all people at all times to
enough food for an active, healthy life. Food security is non-existent for
a third of the population of the developing world (excluding the
People’s Republic of China) and half of these were acutely
undernourished. It was not surprising that food security was central
policy issue in many of the developing Islamic countries. However,
unfortunately these countries strategies for food security were often
neither cost-effective nor do they reach the intended targets.
On a global scale the food situation is still difficult and though some
Islamic countries in Asia have managed to reap the benefits of food
development policies set a motion during the last two decades, in other
countries the food problem was created. Although rains had improved
the plight suffered by some sub-Saharan African countries, and the
crops survived, there was a dramatic increase in pests like
grasshoppers and rats that threatened to destroy any positive
developments. In the Middle East, the increasing bills for food
consumption, which devoured large portion of the national incomes, put
high pressure on balances of payment and consequently directly affect
development in other sectors. For this reason, the Islamic countries in
the region have pursued policies aiming at reaching higher self
deficiency in food production. Only oil exploring countries with low
agriculture potential focused on providing and maintaining adequate
supplies of food at relatively low prices and improving distribution
systems. Kuwait, for example, built in elaborate system for importation
and distribution of a wide range of food products. But as observed that,
these endeavors have often directly or indirectly one or more negative
aspects.
42
16. Haider, Syed (1987) had discussed in research food recovery and
food security as well as measures in Bangladesh. He had pointed
out that Bangladesh is mainly a flat country covering an area of
about 55,000 square miles of land mass, criss-crossed by a
network of some 250 rivers forming the deltaic region of the three
mighty rivers- the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna,
creating a large estuarine area in the Bay of Bengal. The land
mass, consists of extremely fertile alluvial soil with great potential
for food crop production, that could feed a much larger population
than at present. Unfortunately, the situation is otherwise
paradoxical, and it has been rendered a food deficit country
during the time of Second World War. The land of plenty and the
granary of the sub-continent, has now been turned into a symbol
of poverty, due to various reasons, mainly, the exploitation by the
vested interests.
The main occupation of the vast majority of the population in
Bangladesh, about 70%, depends on agriculture. The agricultural
sector, contributes directly about 50% of the Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) and the industrial sector contributes around 10% of GDP.
Basically, most industries, depend on the utilization of agro-based
forestry and natural resources such as jute, sugar cane, cotton,
bamboos, woods, tea, rice straw, hides, etc. the imports of food,
constitute the major part of international aid on account of the Food
Deficit Syndrome (FDS). Thus, an LDC like Bangladesh has now been
placed in such a tight situation, that it would be impossible and
unrealistic to expect it, to be able to carry on without foreign in the form
43
of food imports or outright grant. This is a mechanism for the continued
dependence of the country on aid, thereby minimizing the possibility of
production of food crops, due to cost-effectiveness, since; the imported
stuffs are comparatively cheaper. The imports of a large variety of
tinned milk power and other milk products, have almost completely,
pushed back the local milk production enterprises and dwindles the
cattle stock to an alarming low level.
It is therefore, essential that food aid and imports be integrated with
comprehensive development plan, related to food security within the
country and utilizing the food aid especially for the expansion of
agricultural development. Emergency food aid which Bangladesh was
receiving, (e.g. from Saudi Arabia), under flood relief, must be linked
with careful management, so as, to develop the local infrastructures
and should be complemented by support, for reconstruction and
rehabilitation for the development of intrinsic capability of food
production, agricultural planning and overall rural development. The
author suggested food strategy from plantation time and weather point
of view as under:
a) Food crop production from the monsoon crops to autumn
plus winter varieties.
b) Intensive and diversified cultivation during winter and
autumn.
c) Cultivation of monsoon worthy crops during the monsoon
period.
d) Insurance of water input during autumn and winter for
irrigation.
44
e) Conservation of monsoon water using science and
technology and funds.
f) Setting up an efficient monitoring network system for the
full benefit.
17. Khedr, Hassan, Ali (1987) had analyzed options for more and
better food in Islamic countries. He pointed out that the
agricultural sector in most of the Islamic countries contributed a
sizeable portion to their GDP, yet these countries were faced with
serious challenges in meeting the increasing food demands by
their growing population within the limits of the readily available
resources.
Expanding the food gap has been a general feature in most of the
Islamic countries. This had been manifested by the increasing of food
imports by these countries, whereby, cereals imports increased from
17 million tons in 1975 to 27 million tons in 1983. Moreover, imports of
animal products, edible oil and fats, other than those supplied through
food aid program, had increased substantially throughout the 1980’s. In
addition, gross food aid to Islamic countries in 1975-76, 1980-81 and
1983-84 amounted to 3.9, 4.9 and 5.9 million tons respectively.
On the other hand, the rate of growth in food production in the Islamic
countries declined from 3.6 percent per annum through the seventies
to 2.1 percent per annum through the early eighties, similarly, the rate
of growth in cereals production also declined from 3 percent per annum
to 1.5 percent per annum during the same periods. Dairy and egg
production had been expanding at the rate of 2.7 percent per annum
45
during the period 1980-84 while the demand for these products had
been expanding at the rate of 5 percent per annum.
Realizing the above, and in a process to meet the escalating food
demands as well as to reduce or eradicate the implied political
dependence resulting from the expanding food imports, food self
sufficiency had become the main and ultimate objective for most of the
Islamic countries. In this regard the author suggested the following
measures toward more and better food be adopted:
i) Coordination in exchange of basic information including
data on crop forecasting surveys.
ii) Establishing multi-Islamic countries enterprises to pursue
projects of common interest.
iii) Improving food access to the vulnerable groups of
population.
iv) Adoption of nutrition education projects to improve eating
habits and alleviate nutritional disorders.
v) Elimination of barriers for resource mobility among Islamic
countries as part of an agricultural integration system.
18. Galal, Osman (1987) hads highlighted in the research paper that
the Islamic countries collectively had tremendous food production
potentiality, and agriculture remained of major importance in the
economic life of most of these countries. Malnutrition was
widespread in Islamic countries and many nutritionists feel that
redistribution of resources was prerequisite to reduce it noting
that improvement in socio-economic conditions, did not
necessarily improve nutritional status, as it was more related to
the quality of food. The element of nutrition, should be taken into
the context of the national socio-economic development plans of
46
Islamic countries, and improving the quality of life for the rural
population, should be integrated in agricultural projects.
The research discussed the qualitative aspects of available food,
whether produced or imported, in the Islamic countries and the role of
the quality of food as an important element in the food security
concept. It further highlighted the impact of food quality on food
consumption patterns and its relationship to health as well as ways and
means of improving the nutritional status of people.
19. Muhammad, Amir (1987) had described food situation and future
outlook for food security in the Muslim world. The author
highlighted that Muslim countries covered a total area of 2,726
million hectares which was about 20 percent of the total global
land areas. The estimated population in the world was 875 million,
which was about 20 percent of the world population. He analyzed
present and future food security perspectives in the Islamic
countries clearly indicated a large gap in the food production and
its requirements, necessitating sizable food imports, which are
likely to increase several fold during the next decade in view of
the expected food deficit of about 48 M.T, by the year 2000 to
overcome this situation, the population growth rate had to be
reduced, besides making concerted efforts to increase food
production through the use of modern high production
agricultural technologies. In some Islamic countries, substantial
increases had been obtained in agricultural production through
the use of improved technologies and they had been able to
achieve self-sufficiency in food production. Other Islamic
47
countries, particularly the ones endowed with adequate natural
resources of land, water and weather, could share the experience
of these countries and improved their food production. A number
of measures were applied to achieve food security in the Islamic
countries. These included major improvement in the agricultural
research, education and extension setups, optimizing use of the
available natural resources, development of improved production
technologies along with necessary inputs and their use in
selected large areas to achieve several fold yield increases,
compared to the traditional addition to this appropriate
infrastructural, technical, economic and measures to organize the
agricultural production system on sound footing re also
suggested. The successful implementation of these measures in
different Islamic counties through increased co-operation among
them would result in major yield increases of agricultural
commodities to have viable food security systems for the
prosperity and welfare of the Muslim Ummah.
20. Rahman, Omal, Abdul (1987) had discussed in their research food
security and policy issues in Malaysia. They had described that
agriculture in Malaysia, comprising food crops, non-food crops,
livestock, fisheries and forestry, is a major contributor to the
G.D.P foreign exchange earnings and employment. Although its
output continued to increase relative to other sectors of the
economy, agriculture showed a declining trend, losing ground
especially to manufacturing.
48
Agriculture was dominated by the non-food sub-sector, especially
rubber and timber. Of the food sub-sector, palm oil was the most
significant, cocoa was fast becoming a major export item and pepper
was significant. From the food security point of view, Malaysia’s
agriculture had room for improvement. Of the various food items, self-
sufficiency was attained in only a few. The lacks of self-sufficiency in
the others were either by design or due to insufficient attention given.
Identification has been made for the food items which are technically
feasible and economically viable for production. Development of the
agricultural sector had been given increasing attention and was
demonstrated through the implementation of the National Agricultural
Policy formulated in 1984.
21. Jumah, Hassan, Fahmi (1987) had described the objective of this
research to identify opportunities and options for integration
among Islamic counties to achieve a higher degree of food
security. These options were identified to meet specific needs as
recognized from the assessment of food security developments
and major constraints facing food security efforts in Islamic
countries. This research was divided into three major parts. The
first dealt with the changing food security concepts, while the
second dealt with food security development in Islamic counties
with special reference to some Arab counties. The third part
reached overview of opportunities and options for integration to
reduce food insecurity in the Islamic counties.
The study discussed the changing food security concepts that would
imply different options and helped in identifying areas for coordination
49
among Islamic counties. Food crises in developing counties in general
and Islamic counties in particular, did not coordinate efforts to increase
food availability and increase income of farmers at the grass-root level.
The study assessed the availability of land, human, and capital
resources in Islamic countries. It showed that Islamic counties
constitute a heterogeneous group with different resource endowments
and stages of development. The diversity in resources could be an
advantage for economic integration and coordination efforts, while
diversity in the stages of development and economic performance
could be an appropriate reason for initiating serious steps to achieve
economic integration in facing food security problems. Major
constraints facing food security efforts in Islamic counties were
identified and were divided into two major levels. The first dealt with the
overall or external factors pertaining to recent world development, while
the second dealt with constraints within the Islamic counties. The study
specified opportunities and options for integration among Islamic
counties to meet food security goals and objectives.
22. Qasem, Subhi (1987) had analyzed past, present and future impact
of scientific and technological advancements on productivity of
food resources were presented and discussed in the research.
Experiences as well as available indicators showed that countries
wishing to increase food production had better chances of ding it
through raising the efficiency of resource use than through
increasing the quantity of resources used.
In view of the limited resources available to Islamic countries, the
research was suggesting a scientific and technological strategy to
50
develop and utilize the benefits of technology in improving food
production. It was also suggested that Islamic counties cooperate to
create the critical mass needed to generate technological output in
newly emerging fields like biotechnology, resource management
models, and production system models. The research also emphasized
that many Islamic counties had not utilized the benefits of science and
technology output in their production system in the optimal levels. They
increased the productivity of their resources if they use high level of
technological inputs. Low productivity levels that prevailed in the
majority of Islamic countries and other their roots in the fact that
modern technological inputs were used by a small percentage of
farmers and hence there was need for better dissemination and
utilization of such inputs.
2.3 Food Security in Pakistan
24. Toor, Sadia (2008) has analyzed the structural dimensions of food
insecurity in Pakistan. He pointed out that insecurity of food in Pakistan
was linked to global processes and forces because food was diverted
to fuel due to its demand at global market level. He further quoted that
out of world population 840 million, 1.02 million were hungry, every
day. In this way, Pakistan faced food insecurity problem as pointed out
in 2008. He examined that about 50 percent of Pakistanis people
consumed less than the minimum requirement each day. He further
described that out of 121 districts of the country, 95 districts faced food
insecurity problems, hunger, malnutrition and poverty. He also
examined food insecurity in urban areas. Out of 56 million people, 21
million were facing food shortage problem. Furthermore, he discussed
the highest food insecurity level in Baluchistan and KPK provinces of
51
the country. He further suggested that land redistribution was required
in Pakistan to reduce the issue of food insecurity.
25. Khaliq-uz-Zaman (2011) has focused in his research paper about
change in food production and consumption pattern in Pakistan. He
stated that food is essential for the survival of people. He has analyzed
the state of agriculture sector during 1979-80 to 1990-2000 and 2000-
2010. He observed that per capita food availability per year in Pakistan
rose from 298kg in 1979-80 to 415kg in 2007-08 at a low rate as
compared to population growth rate (from 85 million to 164 million over
the same period) therefore he suggested that consumption pattern of
food be changed, otherwise it would create food insecurity in Pakistan.
26. Ahmed, Muneer and farooque (2010) have discussed the state of
food security, future challenges and strategies in his research paper.
He has pointed out that Pakistan is a low income developing country
and agriculture plays an important role in the economy of the country. It
provides food grains to the increasing population and also brings
foreign exchange earnings by exerting agriculture commodities. He
further examined that since the creation of Pakistan the total cultivated
area enhance 40% during the past 65 years and population increased
more than five times. Though the output of food grains went up double
but could not feed aggregate population of the country. The policy
makers formulated various strategies but could not affect food supply.
It requires effective managerial steps for maintaining food security.
27. Farooque (2010) has analyzed the existing state of food security in
Pakistan, future challenges and different strategies. Agriculture is the
52
back bone of the economy and also provides food to the nation. In
Pakistan about 68% of the population earns their livelihood agriculture
sector. Beside other sub-sectors contribute up to 28% and 24% to the
rural people. With the increasing population of Pakistan, the demand of
the food has been increasing continuously but the nature of demand of
food is not same as 1960’s. It is different due to the following factors:
i. Increasing proportion old people due to medical facilities.
ii. Urbanization is growing fast and emergence of big cities.
iii. Changes in the size of family structure.
iv. Establishing of Super Markets and international food chains in
all over the countries. Keeping these factors, the food
requirements in future would be changed. There production
system should be diversified.
sThe author has further pointed out that insecurity of food existed in
Pakistan due to failure of following two major policies:
i. To withdraw program from the agriculture sector and the
structural adjust program and paying no attention to
institutional infrastructure to exploit farm-nonfarm sectors.
This created less investment in research and development in
agriculture.
ii. Inter linked sectors were neglected without alternative
pathways which described production of agriculture sector
and created further poverty in rural areas. In this regard,
Pakistan started various programs such as:
Pakistan Baitul-Mal.
Zakat and Usher Scheme.
53
Benazir Income Support Program to meet requirements of
the poor. Inspite of above mentioned program food
insecurity still exists in the country.
28. Ahmed, Farooque (2009) has analyzed food security in
Pakistan. The author has mentioned in his research that food is the
basic requirement of the nation. It maintains the health of the
people. If there is deficiency of food in the country, the people
would be ill healthy and could not work hard for the development of
the country. Therefore, food security is the prime goal of the
Government. In the initial stage, Pakistan was surplus in food. Later
on, it started to decrease production in relation to population
growth. In this regard, family planning program was launched in
1964 in order to maintain reasonable growth rate of population but it
could not prove successful. Pakistan started to import wheat to
meet the requirements of the country and also introduced new
technology in agricultural sector during 1966. More cultural land
was brought under cultivation and input facilities such as extension
of irrigation, credit facilities, fertilizer, tractors, tube wells etc were
extended to growers. The cultivated area of land increased from
million 8.65 hectares to million 13.05 hectares and food grains rose
from million 8.68 tones to million 34.48 tones. This progress was
achieved due to introduction of new technology.
The author has suggested that Pakistan could maintain food
security by taking two steps i.e.:
i. Stopping smuggling of wheat grains.
ii. Post harvest losses should be removed by adopting
suitable measures.
54
29. Mattra, Ramtaner (2008) has conducted research on food
shortage in Pakistan and observed that it happened first due to
entry of the Soviet Army in Afghanistan 1979. The army destroyed
irrigation system and agriculture land which decreased the
production of grains in Afghanistan. Secondly US troops landed in
2001 and gave the importance to option production in order to
maintain international banks with its money. These factors creased
forming Afghanis about 7.5 million were food shortage. This
situation started illegal smuggling of wheat and flour from Pakistan
to Afghanistan. The author analyzed that due to this war about 77
million people had food shortage in Pakistan.
30. Zahid, Shahid (1976) has analyzed in his research population
control in a food scarce world. He pointed out that world population
would be more than doubled within 50 years. However food grains
production would be unequal. In advanced countries 1/3 of the
world’s population is residing. But problems of hungry, malnutrition
and rural poverty perceived in under developed and developing
countries. Pakistan being a developing country faced same
problems. An accelerated growth of population could not match the
growth rate of food grains in the country. There are two largest food
crops viz. wheat and rice.
Before 1952 the country was self sufficient in wheat but since then
had to import substantial quantities. Wheat output increased from
3.3 million tons in 1947-48 to 7.5 million tons in 1973-74. Wheat
yield acre improved from 9.2 mounds to 12.6 mounds in the
corresponding period. The major breakthrough in wheat production
came about after 1967-68 with the introduction of high yielding
55
Mexican seeds. By 1972-73 about 52% of the total wheat area used
Mexican seeds.
Rice production too has shown an appreciable rise and output rose
from only 682 thousand tons to 2.5 million tons between 1947-48
and 1974-75; yield per acre increased from 9.5 to 16 maunds. This
substantial increase was largely due to the use of IRRI rice varieties
and over 50% of the total rice area used these new varieties.
Other food grains in Pakistan are Bajra, Maize, Jowar and Barley,
all of these was far less important than wheat which was the major
staple diet in Pakistan. Per capita availability of food grains for
1972-73 was 17.20, per day included wheat rice, etc. Pulses play
an important role in our dietary pattern, particularly in the rural
areas. They were a high protein food and are a good substitute for
more expensive protein food like meat and fish. But the production
of pulses had suffered setbacks due to low profitability. The nutrition
survey in 1965-66 and the household expenditure survey in 1971-
72 showed that there were marked differences in rural and urban
dietary patterns. Rural households consumed more grain, milk, oils
and raw sugar than urban households and urban household
consumed more meat, fish, eggs, potatoes and refined sugar. In
Pakistan intake was about 2000 calories and 57 grams protein.
However, due to the composition of food, protein conversion was
incomplete.
Most of the proteins and calories intake was derived from cereals
and too little were derived from meat and other animal foods and
edible oils. It was pointed out that a third of the rural population
insufficient calorie intake and suffer from protein deficiencies. For
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the urban sector approximately 80% had low calorie intake and
50% had protein deficiencies. The diet was also lacking in vitamins
and iron. So, both hunger and malnutrition were problems that
planners in Pakistan face and the nutritional aspects of food cannot
be ignored.
31. Aziz, Sartaj (1975) had viewed regarding world food problem as
under:
i. World food problem had really two problems. One was the
threat of famine or food shortages arose from year to year
fluctuations in production, leading to sudden or unexpected
changes in food prices and supplies. Different countries
were exposed to varying degrees of insecurity. In the past
three years grain shortages and high food prices affected
almost all countries of the world, but naturally people in the
less developed countries suffered more.
ii. The second part of the problem was the chronic hunger and
malnutrition of a large segment of the population in Asia,
Africa and Latin America. Even when the world as a whole
had plenty of food and food prices were stable, something
like 460 million people at 20 percent of total population of
Asia, Africa and Latin America were perpetually hungry and
chronically malnourished. In the past three years. This
percentage must have become much larger. In many ways
these two aspects of the food problem were closely inter-
related. In the last fifteen years the developing countries’
own demand for food had been growing at the faster rate
57
than their own production of food. In the 1950’s the average
increase in demand and in food production were almost in
balance, i.e. about 3 percent per annum, but in the
1960’s their demand for food increased at 3.3 percent per
annum while annual increase of food production slowed
down to about 2.6 percent per annum. As a result, the food
gap of the developing counties increased from 3 million
tons in 1950 to 30 million tons in 1970. For the next 10
years, the annual increase in demand should be even
faster-about 3.6 percent. The key question therefore the
ability of developing countries as a whole, to step up the
corresponding increase in food production from 2.6 percent
per annum to at least 4.0 percent per annum, if they only
manage to maintain the rate of progress achieved in the
past ten years their food gap, according to FAO’s estimates,
increase from 30 million tons in 1970 to something like 85
million tons in 1985. He further stated that world as a whole
had plenty of food, but out of 460 million people, 20 percent
of population of Asia, Africa, and Latin America were
perpetually hungry. He pointed out that two thirds of grain
was being fed to livestock by developed countries. Hunger
could be removed in above mentioned countries by
reducing consumption of livestock in developed countries.
He further added that if food was given in a political
framework to developing countries, the adverse political
and economic consequences would be difficult to avoid.
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32. Malik, M.Y. (1975) had analyzed food resources in Pakistan. He
examined that Pakistani people are wheat eating nation and it
was sawn about 40% of the total cropped area and relied on
imported wheat which has been increasing since 1952-53 to
date to meet food requirements.
He further pointed out that in 1972 the total world production of
wheat, rice and coarse grain declined by 33 million tons against
the expected annual growth at the rate of 25 million tons to
establish a reasonable balance between demand and supply.
The total world cereal output decreased to 1200 million tons,
which is alarming. According to an estimate, “Projections of
present growth rates for population, food production and
demand would leave the vast majority of the developing
countries with a total cereal gap of 85 million tons annually by
1985. This would be just under 10 per cent of their needs but
about three times as large as their average imports in 1969-72
and probably far more than they could afford to import”.
The US department of Agriculture estimated world grain
production of 997 million tons for the year 1975-76, and with a
notable recovery of feed consumption from the depressed levels
of 1974-75 there would still be a balance of about 16 to 17
million tons which could be available for the stocks re-
placement. In 1975 the crop estimate was revised and cut by 1
million tons and the consumption estimate was revised by about
12 million tons leaving a sizeable gap for prospective stocks
build up.
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The situation was more hopeless reduction in production of 26
million tons with a consumption increased of 17 million tons. The
world grain stocks levels at the end of 1975-76 were expected
somewhat larger than the estimated level of 99.6 m. tons at the
end of 1974-75, but still about 5 to 10 percent below that of
either, 1973-74 or 1972-73.
The food situation in Pakistan changed tremendously from the
point of self-sufficiency in 1947-52 to considerable deficiency
from then onwards. The diet of the people mainly consists
starchy food and pulses. Since the per capita income in
Pakistan is low, people cannot afford balanced diet. According
to US AID over 60 percent Pakistanis were undernourished or
malnourished which to intellectual impairment, apathy and
listlessness. This state of affairs was very awful which
challenged the agrarian experts in the country.
2.4 Conclusion
From review literature it was concluded that population has been
increasing world level and is about 840 millions 1.02 million every day
hunger. The population would be 9.5 billion in future. Therefore, first
priority should be given to food security because it is imperative for
human survival. Future policy be prepared keeping in view increasing
growth rate of population and growth rate of food grains.
As far as food security concerned to Pakistan. The country was surplus
in food grains during early years of 1950s. Later on policy makers paid
attention for the development of industry and agricultural sector was
neglected. This sector affected due to failure of monsoon insects attack
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on crop and floods caused shortage of food. Besides population started
to increase more as compared to growth rate of food grains. New
technology called green revolution was introduced in agricultural sector
to increase the output. The cultivated increased 40 percent and
production of food grains also increased more than double, but
increasing output could not meet the requirements of the country.
Currently 21 million people are food insecure. The population is 180
million which is expected to be doubled by 2050. Therefore, future food
secure policy is essential; otherwise it will create problems of hunger,
malnutrition, disease and poverty.
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CHAPTER 03 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
Research Methodology consists of methods that establish how data is
collected and analyzed (Marshal, 1998). It encompasses the research type,
sampling, sample size, method of data collection, instruments of data
collection, coding and recording of data, forms of tables, pretesting, data
analyses and interpretation of data collected (Khan, 2005).
3.2 Research Design
Research design is a multifaceted concept which cannot be depicted in easy
manner. Emory (1980) has mentioned seven perspectives for viewing any
given study. They are:
Degree of problem Crystallization:
The Topical Scope:
Research Environment:
The Time Dimension
The Communication Mode of Data Collection
Researcher’s Control of Variables
The Nature of the Relationship Among Variables
This research on degree of purification is a Formalized study’, as it has a
much more organization and starts with hypothesis. On topical scope, this
Exploratory (pure)
Formalized (applied)
Case Study (in-depth)
Statistical Study (in-breadth)
Field Study
Laboratory Study
Cross-sectional Study
Longitudinal Study
Monitoring
Interrogation
Experimental Design
Exposit facto Design
Descriptive
Causal
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study is “statistical study”, as it measures position of agricultural sector in
relation to food grains at one point and the ongoing processes and
interrelations are inferred through statistical findings. From the perspective of
Research milieu, this is a meadow study. This study is called as ground study
because it is carried out in real environment. On time dimension reason, this
is a Cross Sectional study. Cross Sectional study means a data collected by
observing many subjects at the same point of time or without regard to
difference in time. This study is named as Interrogation study point of time or
without regard to differences in time. This study is named as interrogation
study on communication basis. This study is called as interrogation study
because responses were elicited from the respondents. The survey type of
interrogation study was used, in which questionnaires were the means of
eliciting the responses. Research is also classified on Researcher’s grip of
Variables viewpoint and on this foundation; this study is, like all other social
and business researches, Ex Post Facto research. Through Ex Post Facto
method the prevailing scenario of position of agricultural sector in relation to
food grains is reported in this research. For measuring agricultural sector in
relation to food grains, proper sampling procedures were applied and data
was also arranged according to the set procedures. The last categorization of
the research depends on Nature of Relationship among Variables. On this
basis the major part of this research is expressive research, because this
research is typically concerning with finding out who, what, where, when and
how much of agricultural sector in relation to food grains; the study has also
established the factors that contribute towards agricultural sector in relation to
food grains, Therefore research is also a causal.
3.3 Universe
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A universe is the “aggregate of all cases that conform to some designated set
of descriptions” (Isidor, 1981). Population may be finite or infinite. Finite
population contains a countable number of sampling units. An infinite
population contains uncountable number of sampling units, such as unlimited
number of coin tosses. The population is also defined in terms of Content,
Extent, and Time (Emory 1980).
The universe of this study is a infinite one. The “content of population in this
research is “The agricultural farmer” The Extent” of population for this
research is “Agricultural districts and “Time” is “ December 2012”. The
universe of objective number 02 is total yield of crop production and total
demand and supply of production in relation to population growth. The
growers and food wholesalers of grain and crop cultivators of Sindh. The Both
government and private farms are included. Each department is further
divided into four groups: crop grower, crop seller, crop supplier, and
government ministry of agriculture further categorized as food importers, food
exporters, food marketing department, irrigation department, and ministry of
agriculture. Questionnaires were executed from each section of each
department. Each section of each department has been chosen to provide a
proper area balance in terms of geographical converge in the two districts.
3.4 Sampling
There are two types of sampling techniques: random of by chance sampling
and non probability or judgmental sampling. Probability sampling is based on
the concept of by chance sampling – a fix procedure that assumes that each
population factor is given a non zero chance of selection. Non probability is “a
64
non chance” that is each member is not given a non zero chance of being
included (Zara, 1981). Probability samples contain simple random, orderly,
cluster and stratified methods, whereas non probability samples can be
collected by any of quota, purposive, reference, auto selection (Martin et al.,
2008).
In this research both techniques of sampling-probability or representative
sampling and not by chance or judgmental sampling- are used for data
collection. Segmentation method of probability sampling is used for data
collection. In stratified sampling, which is an alteration of random sampling,
population is divided into different strata and ten a random sample is drawn
from each section. In this research each one of the agriculture and irrigation
departments, both public and private, was divided into four strata i.e. water
logging, water distribution, cultivable land, un-cultivable land. In the non
likelihood sampling, snowball method was used to collect the data. Snowball
is commonly used when it is difficult to identify members of the required data.
Snowball is commonly used when it is difficult to identify members of the
required population.
3.4.1 Sample
The essential requirement of the sample is that it must be as representative of
the population as possible. A sample is said to be the representatives of the
population if the analysis made on it yields results similar to those that would
be obtained had the entire population been analyzed (Emory et al. 1992).
According to W.E. Fleming (1961) quality of study is often better with
sampling than with a census. He suggests that “sample possesses the risk of
65
better interviewing (testing), more thorough study of missing, wrong or
suspicious information, better supervision and better processing than is
possible with complete coverage”. The size of sample is as under :
Distribution of Sample by Farm Size in Districts Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki
of Sindh Province, Pakistan.
Table 3.1 Distribution of Sample Farm Size in Districts Khairpur, Sukkur and
Ghotki of Sindh Province, Pakistan
Size of Farm in acres
Khairpur Sukkur Ghotki
Number of Growers
Number of Growers
Number of Growers
Small
0-05 120 120 120
Medium 05-15
20 20 20
Large 15-60 to above
10 10 10
Total 150 150 150
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3.5 Measurement
Measurement is procedure in which quantities or numbers are assigned to
empirical properties (variables) according to rules (Maha et al., 1992).
“Measurement instrument is a source by help of which the researcher is able
to collect record and make quantitative the requisite data for his research”. In
natural sciences measuring variable is quite easy, in contrast, in social
studies; the measuring variables and subjects is not so easy. Instruments for
measuring variables in social sciences are Questionnaires, Interview Cards,
Observation Cards, Index Cards, and Forms etc (Muhammad, 1985).
Questionnaires are most appropriate measuring tools for descriptive studies
(Martin et al., 2008).
3.5.1 Classification of Measurement Tools
Instrument are divided into two general groups: standard or adjusted and
made by the researchers. Former are used in abundance and have been
adjusted during the course of research experiments. Thus they have gained
excellence of super reliability. The latter ones are designed by the
researchers itself. No trained and experienced researcher will use these
instruments in the presence of standard instruments (Ahsan, 1987). In this
research, designed instrument is used for measuring the phenomenon. As
this is a descriptive research, therefore, questionnaire has been used to
analyze the parameters. Four different angles are measured through the
search instrument, and all those drifts are assessed by the set standard of the
instruments. The aspects measured are:
i. Cultivated land
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ii. Uncultivated land
iii. Out put
iv. Availability of finance
v. Causes of unavailability of finance
vi. Availability of water
vii. Food security
3.6 Questionnaires
Questionnaire is one of the most widely used survey data collection technique
(Dilleman 200, cited Tony Bird (2009)). It is extensively used in descriptive as
well as explanatory researches, but is not used in exploratory or other
researches that require large number of open ended questions (Martin et al.,
2008). As this data is descriptive as well as explanatory, descriptive in a
sense that it enables to identify and describe the variability in different
phenomena, and explanatory in a way that it enables to examine and explain
the relationship between the variables, therefore questionnaire were used to
collect the data.
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3.6.1 Type of the Questionnaires
Martin et al. (2008) has classified questionnaire as:
Questionnaire
Questionnaire are classified on either they are open-ended or close-ended.
Open-ended questions allow respondents to give answers in their own way;
whereas, close ended questions provide a number of alternative answers.
Majority of the questions in this research are close ended questions.
[Greenwood (1988) cited in Brian (1999), cited in Martin et al (2008)] identifies
six types of close questions, which are:
List
Category
Ranking
Scale or Rating
Quantity
Grid
For this research, the types of the close ended questions used were
Category, Scale or Rating and Quantity. Five point Liker scale was used to
ask the respondents how strongly they agree or disagree with a statement.
Self-Administered Interview- Administered
Telephone Questionnaire
On-line Questionnaire
Postal Questionnaire
Delivery and Collection Questionnaire
Structured
Interview
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Category questions were used to allow respondents to choose only one
category. These questions are useful for collecting data about behaviors or
attributes. Category questions used in this research are gender, domicile etc.
Rating or Scale questions were used to collect view data from the
respondents regarding the cultivable land farmer’s satisfaction and motivation,
level. Quantity questions were used to give the quantity of the attributes.
These questions collect behavior or attribute data. They are also called self –
coded while entering in computers Quantity questions used in this research
are age, number of children, salary etc.
3.7 Designing Individual Questions
In Individuals questions researchers do one of the three things (Clark, 1994)
Adapt questions used in other questionnaires
Adapt questions used in other questionnaires
Develop own questions
The questions in this research were designed adopting and adapting
questions used in other questionnaires.
3.8 Level of Measurements
The term “levels of measurements” and “scales of measurements” are used
as a exchange. The scales of measurements are, thus, tools which are used
for measuring qualities in the instruments used in research. Scales of
measurement are: Nominal, Ordinal, Interval and Ratio.
For this research Nominal, Ordinal and at some places Interval scales of
measurements are used. But ordinal scale of measurement is used mostly.
Nominal scale simply measures the subsistence or non existence of a quality.
The grade of this scale is given below:
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Table 3.2 Nominal Scale Ranking
Rank Value
01 Yes / True / Male
02 No / False / Female
Ordinal scales, besides specifying existence or non-existence of a quality, can
also measure the intensity or weakness of a quality. In this research
attitudes/tendencies of respondents regarding cultivable land, availability of
water, growth of food, demand of food. Burden of import and export were
raked. The growers Satisfaction and Motivation, answers ranked in ascending
or descending order. The correspondence between the number and the
answers is made in following table:
Table 3.3 Ordinal Scale Ranking
Rank Value
05 Highly Satisfied
04 Satisfied
03 Neutral
02 Dissatisfied
01 Highly Dissatisfied
Each question is assigned a score of 5 (as five alternative answers are
produced). Thus for a question the highest value is 5 as the lowest value is
Stress level is 60 and the lowest is 12. Any respondent whose score is near
60 is under a great stress; however respondents having score near 12 are
under minimal stress.
Interval scales, besides possessing the qualities of nominal and ordinal
scales, also distinguish distance between numbers. In this research data of
age, education and income was measured through this scale.
Table 3.4
Interval Scale Ranking
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Rank Value
01 Below 20 years
02 20 – 30 years
03 31 – 40 years
04 41 – 50 years
05 Above 50 years
3.9 Data Collection
This notion is very common in the domain of research that both types of data
i.e. primary and secondary should be collected for analyses, and conclusions
should be derived on the basis of such analysis. Thus both types of data was
collected.
3.9.1 Secondary Source of Data Collection
It includes the publications of the Bureau of Statistics, various Economics
Surveys of Pakistan, Annual Reports, State Bank of Pakistan. Documents of
Sindh Government, Libraries of Shah. A. Latif University, University of Sindh,
Sindh Agriculture University, State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi, PIDE,
Islamabad and various Journals at national and international level.
3.9.2 Primary Source of Data Collection
The primary data were collected during 2011/12 on sample survey from three
districts viz. Khairpur, Sukkur, and Ghotki, Sindh province, Pakistan. 450
different growers were chosen for the desired study. The sample is based on
large, medium and small growers. From each district 150 growers viz. 120
small, 20 medium and 10 large were selected. Each respondent was
interviewed through the questionnaire prepared and pre-tested for this
purpose. Mostly respondents were asked about food grains output during
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winter and summer season. Furthermore, they were asked for input facility,
which was required for their farms.
Data so collected were tabulated, analysed and interpreted in the research
study in order to arrive at conclusion regarding irrigated cultivable land, output
of food grains, and constraints not cultivating the entire land.
3.10 Data Analysis
After the preparation of data, the statistical procedure was applied. There are
two major categories of statistical procedure: Descriptive Statistics and
Inferential Statistics.
3.10.1 Frequency Distribution
First task after coding the data is to construct frequency distribution to
examine the pattern of the response to each of the independent and
dependent variables of the research. This frequency distribution of the single
variable is known as “univariate frequency distribution”.
In this research frequency distribution of the variables gender, domicile,
marital status, Education, age etc was constructed to examine the description
of the number of respondents.
3.10.2 Percentage of Frequency Distribution
Frequencies expressed in comparable numbers are called proportions or
percentages. Proportions are calculated as F \ N, Where f is the frequency of
the category and N is the total number of the responses.
3.10.3 Types of Frequency Distribution
Type of frequency distribution identifies the general form of distribution.
Distribution may have distinctive forms with few low scores and many high
scores, or with many low scores and few high scores; with many scores
concentrated in the middle of the distribution.
73
3.10.4 Testing for Significance level & Region of Rejection
Any set extreme results can be selected as a basis for rejection of the null
hypothesis. The range of these results is designated as “Region of Rejection”.
The sum of the probabilities of the results included in the rejoin of rejection is
denoted as the “level of Significance, or alpha”. It is customary to set the
levels of significance at .05 or .01(in very rare cases .10), which means that
the null hypothesis is to be rejected if sample outcome is among the results
that would have occurred no more than 5 percent or 1 percent (or 10 percent)
of the time by chance (Zahid, 1992). The same thing can be seen from
another aspect which is called “level of confidence”.
3.10.5 Level of Confidence
The level of confidence can be measured from level of significance as:
100 (1-alpha) percent
Where alpha is the level of significance (Michael et al., 1997).
If Alpha is .05 then level of confidence is 100(1-alpha) %
100(1-0.05) %
100(0.95) %
95 %
Thus for alpha = .05, confidence level is 95 percent. Similarly when alpha .01
and .10 the level of significance will be 99 percent and 90 percent,
respectively.
In this research, the significance level set for rejection of null hypothesis is
alpha = .05. This means that when P < or = .05, we have statistically
significant results (i.e., we are 95% confident that the results from the whole
population will also yield the same results; hence we can generalize the
74
results drawn from the samples). If P> .05 then the relationship is not
statistically significant.
3.11 Data Analyzing Techniques
Data for this research is analyzed by statistical and means, graphs and
charts.
3.12 Research Model
Food Security
Availability of sufficient
food to each household
Output
Production
Income of growers
External Factors
Exports
Imports
Foreign Exchange
Economic Factors
Local economic conditions
Lack of formal credit facilities
Higher cost of informal
source of capital
Human Factors
Population growth
Illiteracy
Consumption
Infrastructural Factors
Proper Irrigation
Facilities
Input Factors
Use of Fertilizers
Availability of Seeds
Tractors
Land Resources
Cultivated land
Un-cultivated land
75
7.8 Findings
Map of the Sindh Province
FP = Farm Productivity; CL = Cultivable Land; S = Seed; F = Fertilizer; T = Tractor; I = Irrigation; P = Pesticide; K = Capital; L=Labor
76
3.12.1 Variables of Model
1) Total Farm Production
The total farm production is measured in value terms. The
production is defined as the sum of the monetary value of the
Ghotki
Khairpur
Sukkur
77
total specific output produced on the farm during the survey year
of 2011-12. In this study, only the wheat, rice, crops grown during
summer and winter 2011-12 are for study purpose. Growers were
asked to give information about the production, gross return of
crop per farm consisted of the value of the crop output. To
measure the total farm output in value terms, the price per 40 kg
of crop output received by the growers in the market.
2) Wage of Labor
The farm labor performs various activities in crop production
management. Growers have been asked about the participation of
the family’s members, as well as any hired labor contributions on
the farm for different operations, as mentioned in the
questionnaire.
3) Irrigation Cost
The irrigation cost includes the tube well cost (either diesel or
electric) and charges for canal water. The prevailing market price
of the tube well water for one hour was taken as the opportunity
cost of tube well irrigation. To estimate the irrigation cost for a
specific crop, the tube well’s per-hour operational cost was
multiplied by the number of hours the tube well was used for
irrigating each of the major crops at the farm. The charges for the
canal water and the amount paid for water hired from other people
for each of the major crops, if any, were included in this
expenditure.
4) Fertilizer Cost
78
Fertilizer use has become the key component in production. The
physical quantities of fertilizers containing nitrogen, phosphorus
and potash for each of the crop were taken into account. The
growers were asked about the type and quantity of fertilizer used
for crop. The total fertilizer applied to each crop on the farm was
multiplied with their respective market prices to quantify their
variable in value terms.
5) Land
Expressed in acres, Land includes only the farm area used by
respondents to cultivate the rice and wheat crops. It is mentioned
in acres.
6) Average Uncultivable of Area farm (ACFA)
The uncultivable area is defined as “that uncultivated farm area
that was fit for cultivation, but was not cultivated during the
survey year 2011-12 due to lacking of capital and irrigation facility.
In order to calculate the uncultivable area the total number of
farms is divided by the total uncultivable area available in three
districts of study area.
UNCFA= UNCFA
TCFA Where: UNCFA = Uncultivable Farm Area
TCFA = Total Cultivable Farm Area
7) Average Farm Area Total per Farm (AFAT)
The total farm size represents the ownership size of the farm,
which includes cultivated and uncultivated areas contained in the
farm. In order to compute the average size of the land holding per
79
farm, the total farm area in each farm category was divided by the
total number of farms in each farm category, i.e.:
AFAT= TFA
TNFA Where: AFAT = Average farm Size in each farm category;
TFA = Total Farm Area on each farm category; TNFA = Total Number of Farms in each farm category.
8) Gross Cropped Area (GCA)
This is defined as the cultivated farm area which is actually
cropped during one year, regardless of the number of crops
raised, and includes the area under orchards for the same year.
9) Net Sown Area (NSA)
This is defined as the cultivated farm area which is actually
cropped during one year, regardless of the number of crops
raised, and includes the area under orchards for the same year.
80
3.13 Profile of Sindh Province and Three Districts of Study Area
3.13.1 Geographical Characteristics of Sindh Province
Sindh province is the second largest province of Pakistan. It is situated along
the lower bank of the Indus. The Indus River flows through this province. It
has 240km coastal area in the southwest along Arabian Sea. Sindh has
border of Run of ketch in the South and it’s from eastern boundary extends
towards Rajasthan. The Punjab and Baluchistan lies towards its north and
west. The area of Sindh province is 1.4.914 square kilometers. The population
of this province is 4.12.45000 which is 23% of Pakistani’s population. The
male population is 2,18,1000 and female population is 1.94.35000 (2009
Sindh at Glance). The literacy ratio is 45.29 percent.
3.13.2 Agriculture
The economy of Sindh province depends on agriculture. About 65% people of
the province derived their livelihood from this sector. The main crops are
wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane. The total cropped area in this province is
3.875 million hectares. The production of major crops is given in table 3.5
Table 3.5 Production of Major Crops from 2007/08 – 2011/12
Year
Land Under Crops (000) Hectares
Production (000) Tons
Wheat Rice Cotton Sugar cane
Wheat Rice Cotton Sugar cane
2007/08 989.9 594.0 607.4 309 15607 1818 2536 18794
2008/09 1031.4 733.5 561.5 264 18420 2537 2978 13304
2009/10 1092.3 707.7 634.7 234 17919 2422 4271 13505
2010/11 1144.4 361.2 457.0 266 19041 1230 3537 13766
2011/12 1049.2 635.8 259.2 190 17739 2260 2357 10788
Source: GOP 2013. Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 2011-2012, Islamabad pp 3, 13, 27 and 14
The variation in cultivated area and production of main crops occurred due to
changes in climate and other factors.
3.13.3 Livestock Population in Sindh
81
Livestock is the second important in economic activity of Sindh province. Two
regions viz. Kohistan and Thar (Desert) of this province are very famous. The
economic conditions of the people of those areas depend on this source. The
detailed information is given in table 3.6.
Table 3.6 Livestock Population in Sindh (In 000)
S r Livestock Number
1 Cattle 6925
2 Buffaloes 7340
3 Sheep 3959
4 Goats 12,57
5 Camels 278
6 Horses 45
7 Asses 1004
8 Mules 20
9 Poultry 14,136
Source: GOP (2013) Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 2011-2012, Islamabad, Page 18.
3.13.4 Trade and Industry
At the time of independence of Pakistan, Sindh had virtually no manufacturing
capacity. Large scale manufacturing started to show signs of development
only in the early fifties when, following the Korean war, the great slump
resulted in the imposition of quantitative controls on imports which at the time
consisted predominantly of manufactured consumer goods Karachi because
of its location and the investment in energy production, the development of
port facilities and other infrastructure elements, and the presence of a
successful entrepreneurial class, witnessed a vigorous growth in the field of
manufacturing and textiles, chemicals and pharmaceuticals. Sindh is now one
of Pakistan’s most industrialized regions, with much of its large-scale
82
manufacturing centered in Karachi. The province accounts for a substantial
part of the country entire raw cotton production and contains many of the
nation’s cotton mills. The province has 27 sugar mills. There are also plants
producing steel and automobiles. Pakistan steel mill is the largest one of the
country. The mill has a capacity of 1.01 million tons of steel.
3.14 General Overview of Khairpur District
Khairpur District is located in northern Sindh, it is bounded on the northern by
Shikarpur and Sukkur districts on the east by India, on the south Sanghar and
in the west Larkana District. The total area of the District is 12,910 square
kilometer, (District Report Khairpur 2000). The district is divided in to two
parts viz. the plain cultivated area and second consists of hills. The plain
cultivated area in the west comprises Khairpur, Gambat and Faizganj
Talukas. This area is irrigated through canals of Indus River. The second part
of this district is remaining in parallel rows from north east to south east. The
range of hills starts from Rohri taluka of Sukkur district rising to a height of
about 150 meters above the sea, and 100 meter further after passing into the
Khairpur district. The western part of this district is covered with forests. The
climate is very hot in summer and cold in winter. This district is very famous
from date gardens.
The population of this district is about 2.2 million of which 27% is urban. The
average growth rate is 2.7 percent per annum. (Revenue Board of Sindh
Province 2010)
3.14.1 Agriculture
The rural economy of this district depends on this sector. About 80 percent
inhabitants are engaged in cultivation and remaining are employed in non
cultivation. There living conditions are very poor because small size of farm
and live from hand to mouth.
83
The main crops are wheat, nice, sugarcane and cotton. Table 3.7 highlights
the production of these crops
Table 3.7
Cultivated Area and Production of Main Crops District Khairpur
S r Crops
2010-2011 2011-2012
Cultivated area (000) Hectares
Production (000) Tons
Cultivated Area (000) Hectares
Production (000) Tons
1 Wheat 105.7 417.8 102.1 413.8
2 Rice 09.1 27.9 09.4 29.3
3 Sugarcane 16.5 112.2 18.1 107.8
4 Cotton 58.3 393.96 56.3 362.20
Source: GOP, 2013 Crops Area and Population By Districts 2011-2012,
Islamabad pp 02-53. Horticulture and livestock are included in agriculture sector in this district.
Date farms are cultivated on 30,612 hectares and production is 2, 57,194
tons. (Crops Area and Production By Districts 2013, P. 198).
3.14.2 Industry and Trade
Khairpur district was very backward in the field of industry when Pakistan
came into being. Later on, business people started to install industrial units in
this district. Currently sugar mill and ginning factories ate functioning whereas
large number of people are employed. This district is famous from the date
industry. It provides seasonal Job opportunities to labor and earns foreign
exchange by exporting dates to India and also other countries.
3.15 General Overview of Sukkur District
Sukkur is the third largest city of Sindh province. It is situated on the west
bank of Indus River. It is located at an attitude 67 meter from sea level and
northern as connected and Kashmore districts. Sukkur is also connected by
rail, road and air with all major cities of Pakistan.
The climate is very hot in summer and cold in winter. Its temperature reaches
to 50 centigrade in summer. However, winter is mild and cold. Sukkur has
84
barrage constructed on Indus River. It has seven canals and has capacity of
water nearly 10 million hectares, which is used for farmland.
The population of this district was 2, 00,000 in 1951 and increased to
5,00,000 in 2008 (Board of Revenue, Sindh ). The annual growth rate of
population is 2.7%. The urban population is 2.8% and remaining population is
settled in rural areas (Revenue Board of Sindh Province, 2010).
3.15.1 Agriculture
The economy of rural people of district Sukkur depends on agriculture. Mostly
engaged they are in this sector and have their own farms.
The other inhabitants are employed in non-farm activities. The main crops are
wheat rice cotton and sugarcane. Besides fruit gardens are available in this
district. The table 3.8 indicates the position of main crops in this district.
Table 3.8
Cultivated Area and Main Crops District Sukkur
S r Crops
2010-2011 2011-2012
Cultivated area (000) Hectares
Production (000) Tons
Cultivated Area (000) Hectares
Production (000) Tons
1 Wheat 47.7 188.2 47.5 179.5
2 Rice 6.0 14.2 09.6 21.3
3 Sugarcane 104.3 171.7 171.7 171.7
4 Cotton 18.58 127.63 30.10 190.20
Source: GOP, 2013, Crop Areas and Production By Districts 2011-2012,
Islamabad PP 02-53.
There is variation in output of main crops due to changes in climate and also
other factors such as lacking of irrigation, capital and pest diseases.
85
3.15.2 Industry and Trade
Agriculture plays an important role in the economy of this district. Main crops
of this district are wheat, rice, cotton and therefore, there are ginning factories,
rice husking, cotton and sugar mill. Besides other industrial units, there are
cement, leather, tobacco, agriculture implements, paint and varnish, board
making fishing accessories etc. This city connects province Punjab and
Baluchistan so it is known as a hub of small and large industries.
3.15 General Overview of Ghotki District
Ghotki is a district in Sindh province of Pakistan It is located in northern Sindh
and is divided into 3 physical parts viz. (a) desert area (b) culturable area (c)
flooded area. It is spread over area of 6,975 sq kilo meters. The desert area
which consists of hill of Sand.
The cultivable area of this district is located between desert and floody area in
the centre of district. The land is fertile and is irrigated through Ghotki Feeder
of Guddu barrage.
The river Indus flows near the district in the north. It has river in tract about 87
kilometers. This district has area of forests under 402,578 acres. These
forests provide livelihood to rural people.
3.15.3 Agriculture
The rural economy of this district depends on agriculture. Its land is very fertile
and main crops are wheat, rice cotton and sugarcane Majority of the people of
this district are engaged in agriculture and remaining is employed in non-farm
activities. The main crops are shown in table 3.9
Table 3.9
Cultivated Area and Main Crops District Ghotki
86
Sr Crops
2010-2011 2011-2012
Cultivated area (000) Hectares
Production (000) Tons
Cultivated Area (000) Hectares
Production (000) Tons
1 Wheat 100.4 409.9 100.3 403.4
2 Rice 09.6 24.0 21.6 34.4
3 Sugarcane 02.5 148.3 06.5 408.7
4 Cotton 33.99 189.0 71.20 466.10
Source: GOP, 2013, Crop Areas and Production by Districts 2011-2012, Islamabad PP 02-53.
3.15.4 Industry and Trade
The district is very famous from the industrial point of view. It has fertilizer
units such as Engro Fertilizers and Fouji Fertilizers. Both factories supply
large quantity of fertilizer to growers for agriculture sector. It has power plants
such as TNB, liberty power plant, Engro pogwegen power plant and Doan
power plant.
The product of these plants are supplied all over the country. As cotton is the
main cash crop of this district, there are 40 ginning factories. These industrial
units play an important role in the socio economic development of the
inhabitants living in the district. Besides, there are 4 sugar mills and 3 gas
fields namely Mari Gas Field, Qadirpur Gas Field and Rehmat Gas Field.
These gas fields provide gas to above mentioned fertilizer factories and also
for domestic purpose.
87
CHAPTER 04
SITUATION OF AGRICULTURE IN PAKISTAN DURING 1947-48 TO 1964-65
4.1 Agriculture Situation in Pakistan
Pakistan inherited an agricultural economy at the time of the partition in 1947
(Zaidi, S. Akbar 1999). The cultivated area particularly of the Punjab was
regarded as the breadbasket or granary of the subcontinent (Nasir and M.
Saeed 2004). The development of agriculture was ignored in the initial years
inspite of the fact that the agricultural sector was the largest single contributor
to the GDP. It employed 80% of the population directly or indirectly,
accounted for 73% of the foreign exchange earnings, provided raw material
for cotton, sugar and vegetable industries, served as a market for industrial
88
products (Nasir, M. Saeed 2004). The emphasis was, however, placed on the
development of industrial sector.
The main challenge of development efforts in Pakistan laid in the rural sector
which suffered from widespread poverty and a number of attendant problems
encompassing social, economic and technological factors. The social
problems arise mainly from a pattern of skewed distribution of land ownership
which made the rural society both rigid and iniquitous. The technological
problems were the result of traditional cultivation methods perpetuated by
pressures of population on land, the small size of cultivation units, and
tenancy farming which blocked incentives for technological progress. The
economic problems stemmed primarily from the inability of the agricultural
sector to provide adequate opportunities for full employment and its resulting
failure to yield incomes adequate for providing a satisfactory living standard to
the rural population at large. Also, there was not enough saving capacity to
enable capital formation for raising the productivity of both land and labor to
optimize their potentials.
Since the inception of Pakistan in 1947, the landed interests controlled the
vital agricultural policies of the government through their dominating political
influence. Since the pre 1947 days, the landed interest constituted the most
significant class interest in the Muslim League and also in several other
political organizations in the early years of Pakistan. For example, out of 503
Muslim League Parliamentary Party members in 1942, as many as 163 or
over one-third were landlords (that is persons with very substantial landed
interest) (Khalid 1966). This will rose considerably if to it were added many
more with relatively lesser landed interest (Khalid Bin Saeed, 1966).
The next largest group was that of “lawyers” numbering, however, many of
them were not practicing lawyer but only held a law degree and it is quite
89
likely that some of them did have landed interests of varying scales (Ibid
1966). In the provincial elections in 1951, in Punjab about 80 percent of the
members elected were landlords. In Sindh elections in 1955, not a single Hari
(tenant-at-will) was elected, and about 90 percent of the members of the
Sindh Assembly were drawn from the big landlord families (Ibid 1966).
In Pakistan’s Interim Constituent Assembly set up in 1955, at least 200 out of
310 members belonged to the landed aristocracy. Of the rest, about 30 were
tribal leaders, another 30 belonged to the immigrant population from India and
there were only about half a dozen industrialists (Ibid 1996).
In the second Constituent Assembly of Pakistan, the following was the
composition of various group interests (Talukdar Muniruzzaman 1966).
Table 4.1 Composition of Various Groups in Sindh Assembly
Landlords 28
Businessmen 05
Lawyers 03
Retired Government Officials 05
Total 40
Source: Talukdar Munir-u-Zaman 1966
The influence of the landed interests extended to local government more
manifestly under the system of Basic Democracy (1962-68). The
Chairmanship of the Union in rural areas went almost always to the big
landlord and the membership was bagged by the lesser landowners. The
peasant, who constituted the overwhelming bulk of the rural population, was
almost nowhere represented (Inayatullah 1972).
90
In the early years of Pakistan the urban class which had some influence in
public affairs, was made up of the bureaucratic and military elite. They either
had links mostly with the landed aristocracy or were recruited from the upper
and upper middle class in the urban area. At any rate, their practical role was
at least as the auxiliaries of the landed aristocracy.
This chapter analyses the situation of agricultural sector during 1947-48 to
1959-60 is known as pre-technology period.
4.2 Land Utilization
The total area of Pakistan is 79.61 million hectares (Agricultural Statistics of
Pakistan 2007-08) out of which 25.5 percent is cultivated area, 10 percent is
cultivable waste and 3.6 percent is under forests. The remaining 60 percent of
the area consisting of deserts, mountains, open water and habitation is
unsuitable for agriculture and forestry (Economic Survey 2007-08).
Table 4.2
Land Utilization During Period 1947-48 to 1959-60
Yea
r
Re
po
rted
are
a
Fo
rest a
rea
No
t a
va
ilab
le fo
r
cu
ltiv
atio
n
Cu
ltiv
ab
le w
aste
Cu
rre
nt fa
llow
Ne
t a
rea s
ho
wn
To
tal a
rea
s
cu
ltiv
ate
d / s
ow
n
(co
ls 6
+7
)
Are
as
so
wn
mo
re
than
on
ce
To
tal c
rop
pe
d a
rea
(co
ls 7
+9
)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1947-48 46.07 1.38 20.82 9.18 4.01 10.68 14.69 0.95 11.63
1959-60 48.46 1.34 20.59 10.02 3.44 13.07 16.51 1.60 14.69
Source: Government of Pakistan (1988), Economic Survey 1987-88,
Islamabad, Statistical Section, p. 28
Table 4.2 indicates changes in the pattern of land utilization since
independence. It shows that during 1947-48 to 1959-60, the total cultivated
91
areas increased by 12.39 percent and the cropped area rose by 26.31
percent.
4.3 Output and Productivity Trends
A general view of the progress made by agriculture during 1947-48 to 1959-
60 can be observed from the Table 4.3. Agriculture consists of five sub-
sectors, major crops, minor crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry. Major
crops usually contribute 50 to 60 percent of the value added in the agricultural
sector. The other sub sectors contribution included 13.77 percent by minor
crops, 27.71 percent by livestock, 0.64 percent by fisheries and 0.31 percent
by forestry (Economic Survey 1980-81).
The principal crops are classified into food crops and cash crops. Food crops
include wheat, rice, Bajra, Jowar, maize, barley and gram, while cash crops
include cotton, sugarcane, tobacco, rapeseed, mustard and sesame.
Table 4.3
Trends in Principal Crops Area and Production 1947-48 to 1959-60
Food crops Cash crops
Year Cultivated
area
Index
Production of food grain
Index
Cultivated area
Index
Production of cash crops
Index
Million
Hectares Million Tons
Million Hectares
Million Tons
1947-48 6.51 100 5.03 100 2.99 100 6.49 100
1954-55 7.17 110 5.14 102 3.59 120 10.11 156
1955-56 7.53 100 5.40 100 3.83 100 9.52 100
1959-60 8.04 107 6.10 113 3.71 97 11.95 126
Source: Government of Pakistan, (1991) Economic Survey 1990-91,
Islamabad,
Statistical Section, PP. 45-46
92
Taking the annual output of the non-plan period 1947-48 as the base (Table
4.3) the average annual production of food crops increased by 0.28 percent,
and 2.3 percent during the first five-year plan (1955-56 to 1959-60). As the
cash crops, the rate of increase during non-plan period was 8 percent and 5.2
percent during the first five-year plan.
It is evident from the Table that food crops during the non plan period as well
as in the first five year plan were in stagnation position and average growth
rate stood 1.54 percent during the period from 1947/48 to 1959/60. The
average growth rate of cash crops stood better due to increased output of
sugarcane production in the country.
4.3.1 Wheat
Wheat is the most important food cop as it is the main diet of the people. It is
grown all over the country. The production of the wheat during the non-
technological period is given in the Table 4.4
Table 4.4 Area and Production of Wheat 1947-48 to 1959/60
Year Cultivated Area Production
Million Hectares Index = 100 Million Tons Index = 100
Non-Plan Period
1947/48 3.95 100 3.35 100
1954/55 4.26 108 3.19 95
First Five Year Plan (1955/56 – 1959/60)
1955/56 4.52 100 3.37 100
1959/60 4.88 108 3.91 116
Source: Government of Pakistan (1990), Economic Survey 1991-92,
Islamabad, 1992, Statistical Section, PP. 45-46
Table 4.4 shows the cultivated area, and total production of wheat during the
period 1947/48 to 1959/60. It further indicates that during the non-plan period
the cultivated area of wheat increased from 3.95 million hectares to 4.26
million hectares, but the total output of wheat decreased from 3.35 million tons
93
to 3.19 million tons due to lacking of irrigation facilities. The overall output
during this period rose from million 3.35 tones to million 3.91 tons which
indicated an average growth rate 1.3 percent.
4.3.2 Rice
Rice is grown in 10.3 percent of the total cropped area in Pakistan and on
18.5 percent of the total area under food crops. The cultivated area and total
output of rice during the period 1947/84 to 1959/60 is mentioned in the Table
3.5.
Table 4.5
Area and Production of Rice 1947-48 to 1959/60
Year Cultivated Area Production
Million Hectares Index = 100 Million Tons Index = 100
Non-Plan Period
1947/48 0.79 100 0.69 100
1954/55 0.96 121 0.84 122
First Five Year Plan (1955/56 – 1959/60)
1955/56 0.97 100 0.84 100
1959/60 1.20 124 0.96 114
Source: Government of Pakistan (1990), Economic Survey 1991-92,
Islamabad, 1992, Statistical Section, PP. 45-46
Table 4.5 describes that the cultivated area of rice rose 21.5 percent, 24
percent, and output increased by 22 percent and 14% during different periods
of non technological period. This progress was achieved due to increasing
cultivated area under rice crop.
4.3.3 Cotton
Cotton is an important cash crop and main source of foreign exchange
earnings for the country. It contributes about 5% of GDP (Nasir and Kamal
1997). Major exports come from cotton and its by products. Cotton requires a
good deal of labor at every stage of its cultivation. Table 4.6 gives information
94
of cultivated area and output of cotton during the period 1947/48 to 1959/60
95
Table 4.6 Area and Production of Cotton
1947-48 to 1959/60
Year Cultivated Area Production
Million Hectares Index = 100 Million Tons Index = 100
Non-Plan Period
1947/48 1.24 100 0.197 100
1954/55 1.27 102 0.281 143
First Five Year Plan (1955/56 – 1959/60)
1955/56 1.41 100 0.299 100
1959/60 1.34 95 0.292 98
Source: Government of Pakistan (1990), Economic Survey 1991-92,
Islamabad, 1992, Statistical Section, PP. 45-46
Table 4.6 indicates the position of cultivated area and output of cotton during
the traditional methods of cultivation. It is observed that the cultivated area
rose at the average rate of 0.3% and output went up at the average rate of 6
percent during the period 1947/48 to 1954/55. But during the first five-year
plan the cultivated area decreased and simultaneously the output of cotton did
not increase.
4.3.4 Sugarcane
Sugarcane is an important industrial crop and covers about 5% of the total
cropped area of Pakistan. The detailed information is given in the Table 4.7.
96
Table 4.7 Area and Production of Sugarcane
1947-48 to 1959/60
Year Cultivated Area Production
Million Hectares Index = 100 Million Tons Index = 100
Non-Plan Period
1947/48 0.189 100 5.53 100
1954/55 0.305 161 8.84 160
First Five Year Plan (1955/56 – 1959/60)
1955/56 0.256 100 8.20 100
1959/60 0.397 139 10.06 130
Source: Government of Pakistan (1990), Economic Survey 1991/92,
Islamabad, 1992, Statistical Section, PP. 45-46
Table 3.7 analyses the cultivated area and production of sugarcane during the
pre-technology period. It is pointed out that the sugarcane achieved a good
progress during the period of 1947/48 to 1959/60 because of installation of
sugar mills in Pakistan.
4.4 An Analysis of Agricultural Development during 1947/48 to 1959/60
Agriculture was the “Sick man” of Economic Development in Pakistan during
the 1950s. A stagnant agriculture in a pre-dominantly agricultural economy
meant a slowly growing economy. Pakistan was not unique in this respect as
agricultural development has been a problem in all the under developed
countries with peasant rather than commercial agricultural (Papanek, F.
Gustave 1967).
Crop production in Pakistan, influenced by irregular monsoon rains varies
considerably from year to year. Feelings of optimism and pessimism
fluctuated with weather. During 1953-55, for instance two good crops years
caused by favorable weather. Since the two previous years, output was below
trend. So, it was observed that the agricultural sector could not meet the
requirements of the population growth rate during this period. Keeping in view
97
this problem, the highest priority was given to agricultural sector during the
first five-year plan (1955-60) (Viqar and Amjad 1984).
The agricultural sector grew at an annual rate 1.8 percent during the first five
year plan (1955-60) against the sector target fixed an increase of 9 percent in
the production of food grain. This created the gap between consumption and
production of food in the country.
Another feature of the agricultural sector during the first five year plan (1955-
60) period was the growing shortage of food grains and increasing
dependence of the country on food imports. Except for two years, during the
early fifties wheat production did not show very significant year to year
fluctuations. These fluctuations made storage and price sterilization difficulty
problems. Taking the reproduction statistic and indices together, it appears
that over the entire 13 years period since partition, agricultural production
barely kept ahead of population growth and in some cases (e.g. wheat), it
decreased far behind the requirement per person at a constant level
(Christoph, Beringer, 1962). So Pakistan became a net importer of food
grains, instead of giving top priority to food self-sufficiency, Pakistan resorted
to asking for massive food aid, under commodity assistance under PL480.The
rapid growth of import and their impacts on Pakistan’s economy in the early
1950s shows the weakness of development programs and planning in the
country (Ibid, 1962).
The first plan claimed to have given priority to agriculture. This is surprising at
first sight because the share of the total investment going to agriculture as
well as the contribution to additional output that it was expected to make was
much less than industry. It is clear, therefore, that the plan gave priority to
agriculture in special sense of the word. It was only in the perspective of the
past level of investment in the agriculture that the “priority” given to agriculture
98
by the planners becomes understandable. In this way, we see that by end of
the first five-year plan the stagnant character of the agricultural sector was
emerging as the most important bottleneck in the way of paid economic
growth industrialization efforts and export promotion schemes.
After analyzing situation of agricultural from 1947-48 to 1959/60, it was
observed that this sector remained in stagnant position and could not meet
the food requirements of the people. This can be visualized in Table 4.8
Table 4.8 Average Annual Growth Rate of Food grains in Relation to
Population Growth Rate and Import of Wheat
Year Growth rate of food grains in percent
Growth rate of population in percent
Import of wheat
PRE PLAN PERIOD
1947-48 to 1954-55 0.3% 1.7% 3 Million Tons
FIRST PLAN PERIOD
1955-56 to 1959-60 2.6% 2.8% 4 Million Tons
Source: Government of Pakistan (1990), Economic Survey 1989-90, Islamabad, Statistical Section, pp 3-4 and 45-46.
It is evident from the Table 4.8 that during the period 1947-48 to 1959/60, the
growth rate of food grains was low as compared to population growth rate and
wheat was imported. This situation continued during this period and 7 million
tons wheat were imported from abroad with the result that the huge amount of
foreign exchange was spent in million dollars on this items.
4.5 Food grains Development During 1960/61-1964/65
The second five year plan 1960/61-1964/65, therefore, accorded very high
priority to agriculture through necessary public sector intervention and
extensive tapping of private sector initiatives. During this period, the
government (i) abandoned compulsory procurement; (ii) attempted to ensure
adequate supplies of fertilizer; (iii) developed public sector groundwater
99
pumpage capacity; (iv) encouraged the development of private tube wells; (v)
created two provincial Agricultural Development Corporations for the
procurement and distribution of farm produce and inputs, respectively; (vi)
strengthened the Agricultural Development Bank; (vii) introduced support
prices for sugar-cane and rice and increased the support price for wheat; (viii)
introduced subsidization to promote the use of fertilizer and pesticides.
As a result of these actions, as well as good weather, food grain output
increased to 7 million tons by 1964-65. During this period, groundwater supply
increased two and a half fold and fertilizer off-take by a factor of four. The
structure of water supply-surface-cum-groundwater-also changed significantly
which strongly supported the demand PTO bank side for fertilizer and
contributed to increased crop yields. Value added in agriculture increased by
4 per cent per annum and the gross value of major crops increased by an
impressive 5 per cent per annum. During this period, crop yields became a
source of growth at par with cropped area (Table 4.9). It is observed from the
table 4.9, graph 4.1 and 4.2 that cultivated land and also production of food
grains increased but could not meet the requirements of the increasing growth
of population. Keeping in view the above discussed results, the government
introduced new technology during 1966 in agriculture sector.
Table 4.9 Land Utilization under Food Grain
Crops from 1960/61-1964/65
Million Hectares
Crops 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65
Increase or Decrease percent
1960-61 ̀
Wheat 4.639 4.923 5.022 5.019 5.318 14.64
Rice 1.181 1.214 1.186 1.286 1.356 11.70
Bajra 0.746 0.832 0.852 0.741 0.911 22.12
Jowar 0.475 0.513 0.486 0.467 0.585 23.16
Maize 0.480 0.473 0.459 0.500 0.486 01.12
Barley 0.187 0.187 0.196 0.177 0.185 -01.07
Total 7.708 8.142 8.201 8.190 8.841 +13.64
100
Source: GOP, 1982, Pakistan Basic Facts 1980-81, Islamabad P.35
Table 4.10
Food Grain Production from 1960/61-1964/65 Million Tons
Crops 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65
Percent Increase or Decrease 1960-61 ̀
wheat 3.814 4.026 4.170 4.162 4.591 20.37
Rice 1.030 1.227 1.095 1.192 1.350 31.07
Bajra 0.306 0.370 0.422 0.361 0.446 45.75
Jowar 0.220 0.248 0.251 0.238 0.293 00.13
Maize 0.439 0.488 0.489 0.526 0.528 20.27
Barley 0.120 0.116 0.113 0.1111 0.118 -01.67
Total 5.929 6.475 6.540 6.590 7.326 +23.56
Source: GOP, Pakistan Basic Facts 1980-81, Islamabad P.38
101
Figure 4.1
Land Utilization under Food Grain. Crops from 1960/61-
1964/65
Million Hectares
Figure 4.2 Food Grain Production from 1960/61-1964/65
Million Tons
CHAPTER 05
NEW TECHNOLOGY AND INPUT POLICY FOR
102
AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
5.1 Introduction
As discussed in chapter 4 that agriculture was allowed to stagnate in the
1950s because the ruling elite believed at that time that it was essential to
industrialize at all costs and at great speed. Government policies were heavily
biased against agriculture, and it was only towards the end of 1950s when it
became clear that growth in agriculture was necessary for the survival of the
country. However, realizing the pressing problems like food shortage, foreign
exchange scarcity and raw material constraints on industrial development
which forced the planners towards an agricultural policy. This policy aimed at
achieving the self sufficiency in food, increasing production for domestic use
and export, reducing unemployment and under employment and restriction of
land. During 1960’s changes took place in agriculture sector and new
technology i.e. Green Revolution was introduced in Pakistan.(Viqar and
Rashid 1984)
The Green Revolution in Pakistan started in the early 1960s. Some of the
modern inputs were introduced in the late 1960s (Viqar and Amjad, 1982). It
was mainly introduced by the public sector. In Pakistan, distribution of HYVs,
fertilizer, pesticides and irrigation were controlled by the public sector.
PASSCO was responsible for the distribution of HYVs and pesticides. The
irrigation expansion was done by WAPDA and Canal Department regarding
the spread of Green Revolution in Pakistan stated as follows (Viqar and
Rashid 1984).
The change made emphasis in government policy, which was initiated in the
early sixties, coincided with the advent of so-called “Green Revolution., This
103
revolution started with scientific and technological breakthrough in the form of
inputs, like high yield varieties of seeds (HYV), fertilizer greater spread of
agricultural mechanization, mainly in terms of tube wells and tractors”. (Viqar
and Amjad 1984).
The above discussion of the literature on Green Revolution in Pakistan and
elsewhere seems to indicate four major variables which are the major focus of
the agricultural economists. These variables are (i) widespread of HYV seeds,
(ii) consumption of fertilizer, (iii) irrigation, and (iv) Credit facilities to growers.
All these components for new technology were introduced in agriculture
sector by public policies. Viqar and Amjad (1984).
5.2 Agricultural Inputs
In the following section we discuss the use of the various components of the
input package i.e. irrigation, fertilizers, seeds pesticides, tractors, tube wells
and credit facilities to growers.
5.2.1 Irrigation
Irrigation is the basic component of any combination of modern agricultural
inputs. A greater availability of water at farm gate and a higher
maneuverability of its inter seasonal distribution were critical to the wide
adoption of the new form technology in the sixties and its significance has not
diminished since then.
Some of the factors responsible for depriving agriculture of the full benefits of
the extensive Indus Basin irrigation system and the large underground water
reservoir were an institutional failure to increase the efficiency of water
delivery at the intermediate level and water use at the farm level, and an
inability to formulate long term policies for flood control and land reclamation
combined with water logging and salinity. In the absence of a long term
104
perspective, regarding the role of water in agricultural development, outlays
and efforts in producing water as an end product were not matched by similar
outlays and efforts in ensuring the efficiency of its use as an input.
While temperatures in various regions allow for year round cropping, rainfall in
very low is most of the country. Agricultural irrigation is therefore, of crucial
importance in agricultural development. The major source of irrigation can be
classified into surface water (Canal) and ground water (tube wells).
Irrigation is of critical importance in a semi arid area like Pakistan and is
mostly based on one of the longest and oldest canal system in the world fed
by the Indus river and its tributaries, Tube well and tapping the ground water
began to play a significant role in the expansion of controlled waters supply
only towards the end of 1950s. The Indus Basin irrigation system commands
a gross area of 35 million acres (Naqvi and Sarmad 1984).
In Pakistan surface water received a higher priority in development outlays up
to sixties. In the fifties, the major task in water resource management was the
capturing of natural river flows for irrigation by constructing barrages and
associated canal. During the First Five Year Plan (1955-60) the surface water
sub sector had received 76 percent or the total allocation to the water sector.
This declined to 51 percent, in the second five-year plan (1960-65), 18
percent in Third Five Year Plan (1965-70), and 30 percent in Fifth Five Year
Plan (1978-83) (GOP, 7th Five Year Plan of Pakistan 1988-93).
A major thrust to the expansion of irrigation faculties was given by the rapid
growth of tube wells in the 1960s, which ensured a timely and adequate water
supply to crop needs. Three important factors were responsible for
acceleration in the growth of tube well irrigation.
105
a. Active participation of the Government in promotion tube well,
irrigation salinity control, and reclamation of land also various types of
aid given by the state for construction of tube wells in the private
sector.
b. Easy and subsidized availability of water, machinery and skill for
installation of tube wells in the private sector, and
c. Increase in tube well irrigated farms and rise in the prices of
agricultural produce in the 1960s.
The rapid expansion of tube wells was accompanied by a significant decline in
the cost of installation, partly because of the innovative effort of the tube well
installing firms and growers themselves and party owing to cheaper supply of
steel with the help of foreign assistance.
The profitability of tube well irrigation became strikingly visible in the early
1960s. Tube well growers’ cropping increased rapidly. The cropping intensity
increased from 84 percent on a holding before installation of the tube well to
134 percent after installation, increase in the cropping intensity was thus 60
percent over the pre tube well period. Fertilizer consumption increased fifteen
fold and the total value of crops increased by more than 100 percent after
installation of tube well (Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 1980-81).
The progress of irrigation facilities from 1965-66 to 2011-12 is given in Table
5.1 and Fig. 5.1.
Table 5.1 Progress of Water Availability (MAF)
1965-66 to 2011-12
YEAR Water Availability
MAF Index 1965-66=100
1965-66 63.87 100
106
1969-70 75.50 118
1974-75 88.02 138
1979-80 91.14 143
1984-85 102.81 161
1989-90 117.14 183
1994-95 129.65 203
1999-2000 133.78 210
2004-05 135.68 212
2009-10 133.70 209
2010-11 137.16 215
2011-12 135.86 213
Source: (i) Government of Pakistan, Economic Survey 1997-98 Islamabad,
1998, Statistical Appendix, P.47
(ii) Government of Pakistan, Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan,
Islamabad, 2002, P.141, Ibid 2011-12, P.138
Figure 5.1 Progress of Water Availability (MAF)
1965-66 to 2011-12
Table No. 5.1 and Fig. 5.1 show that irrigation facilities were extended more
than double to growers during the period 1965-66 to 2011-12 for increasing
the output of agricultural sector. Similarly the Table 5.2 describes the public
sector expenditure for the development of agriculture and water.
107
Table 5.2
Public Sector Expenditure on Agriculture and Irrigation Development During Various Five-Year Plans in Pakistan
(Rs. Billion).
Sector
First
Plan
1955-
60
Second
Plan 1960-
65
Third
Plan
1965-70
Non Plan
Period
1970-78
Fifth Plan
Period
1978-83
Sixth Plan
Period 1983-
88
Seventh
plan
Period
1988-93
Eighth
Plan
Period
1993-98
1998/99
1999-
2000
Ten
Year
Perspec
tive
2001-
2011
Agriculture 0.46 0.91 1.38 6.49 14.86 17.302 15.6 05.7 0.43 0.54 36.1
Water 0.97 4.60 4.51 12.81 15.77 22.015 28.4 55.6 12.32 11.38 425.5
Source: (i). GOP, Agriculture Statistics of Pakistan 1998-99, Islamabad, 1999,
P.267 Ibid, 2000-01, Islamabad, 2002, P.270.
(ii). Ibid, 2011-12, Islamabad, 2012, P.256.
5.2.2 High Yielding Varieties (HYV)
The short stemmed varieties of wheat and rice imported from abroad and the
increased use of fertilizer dramatically enlarged the potential for rapid
increase in the agricultural production in Pakistan in the Mid-60s. The
impressive breakthrough in food grains production is sometimes referred to as
the Green Revolution, the use of high yielding varieties of seed emerged as a
principal contributor factor to the increase in agricultural productivity in the
third five year plan (1965-70). We know that improved seed is the primary
input, to increase per acre productivity. The uses of improved varieties of
seeds become more and more popular. The use of HYV seeds offered the
108
advantages of greater productivity through higher response to water and
fertilizer and greater crop intensity.
The introduction of Maxi-Pak Seeds in wheat and IRRI Pak in rice were
particularly instrumental in bringing about the breakthrough in agricultural
production in late 60’s. Table 5.3, shows the distribution of improved seeds in
Pakistan during the 70’s. Starting from a low base in the early 70’s, the
distribution of improved seeds reached fairly high levels during 1999-2000.
Table 5.3 describes the distribution of seeds of main crops of Pakistan viz.
wheat, paddy, maize and cotton with good progress. Table 5.4 and Fig 5.2
indicate further progress regarding the distribution of seeds of main crops.
Table 5.3
Distribution of Improved Seeds of Various Crops
1971-72 to 1999-2000 (000 Tons)
Crops 1971-72 1975-76 1979-80 1989-90 1994-95 1999-
2000
Wheat 7.09 26.35 41.01 45.57 63.29 159.22
Paddy 1.50 1.31 0.81 1.40 1.64 2.27
Maize 0.26 1.53 0.39 1.07 0.15 2.40
Cotton 9.70 12.45 17.35 12.12 11.04 29.46
Sources: (i) Government of Pakistan, Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan,
Islamabad, 1981, P. 111.
(ii) Ibid, 1996-97, Islamabad, 1997, P. 129
(iii) Ibid, 2000-01, Islamabad, 2000,P. 127
109
110
Special emphasis was laid during the year 2001-2002 to evolution of high
yielding varieties of all the major crops and maintenance of purity of improved
varieties. High priority was given to seed multiplication and distribution
programs, these programs, especially those relating to production of quality
seeds, have remained weak in the past. Seed certification and seed testing
organizations were established at the federal level. Provincial Seed
Corporations in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh have since been
established for procurement and distribution of seeds.
111
Table 5.4
Distribution of Improved Seed in Agricultural Sector From
2001-02 to 2011-12 (In 000 Tons)
Year Wheat Paddy Maize Cotton Grains Oil Seed Total
2001-02 143.25 4.86 2.96 89.87 0.31 0.32 191.57
2004-05 171.20 09.72 05.95 28.90 0.57 1.78 218.12
2005-06 168.06 12.52 09.06 34.17 0.41 1.79 226.07
2006-07 168.46 11.90 09.25 31.79 0.38 1.82 218.60
2007-08 204.25 18.86 09.78 29.87 0.26 1.65 264.67
2008-09 250.76 31.78 10.45 19.64 0.18 1.81 314.63
2009-10 266.35 22.20 08.74 12.46 0.20 2.68 312.63
2010-11 295.64 25.90 01.69 07.37 0.30 0.12 331.02
2011-12 295.65 34.52 09.24 05.44 0.30 1.23 346.38
Index
2001-02=100 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
100 114 118 114 138 164 163 173 181
Sources: (i) Government of Pakistan, Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan,
2003-2004, Islamabad, P. 127
(ii) Ibid, 2011-12, Islamabad, P. 126
Figure 5.2
Distribution of Improved Seed in Agricultural Sector from 2001-02 to 2011-12 (In 000 Tons)
Seed processing plants were set up in all the provinces of Pakistan to
increase its availability. A great deal of work involved new higher varieties at
various research institutions and agriculture universities. They released of
high yielding varieties of Rice Basmati 385 and maize, for further increasing
per hectare yield.
112
5.2.3 Fertilizer
Greater use of chemical fertilizer has been an important part of the strategy
for achieving greater productivity in agriculture. This is especially so after the
introduction of HYV since the range of increase in output due to fertilizer use
is higher in the case of HYV than traditional seeds. Fertilizer offers the
advantage of divisibility since they allow farmer to make marginal adjustments
in their application regardless of size of the farm. The application of primary
types of fertilizer like urea for Nitrogen and DAP for phosphate have shown
good result.
Fertilizer distribution has been growing at a fairly paid price in Pakistan for the
last five decades and its use has acquired fairly wide acceptance among the
growers, the average annual rate of growth in fertilizer consumption since
1960 has been 18 percent (Economic Survey of Pakistan 2001-2002).
Chemical fertilizer, when used in correct proportion, is one of the most
effective inputs for increasing crop production. Despite several constraints,
the growth in fertilizer usage by Pakistan’s growers is one prominent success
story in the field of agriculture, against a nominal use of about 31,000 nutrient
long tons in 1959-60, its consumption increased to about 87,200 nutrient long
tons during 1964-65, and further 3,07,700 nutrient long tons in 1969-70 (Ibid
2001-2002). This showed an annual growth rate of 23 percent during the
Second Plan period, which increased to 29 percent during the Third Plan. This
momentum could not be maintained during Non-Plan period (1970-78). The
fertilizer consumption increased at the annual rate of 10.6 percent only during
this period within off take of 531 thousand nutrient long tons in 1976-77 (Ibid
2001-2002). Per hectare use of fertilizer has increased quite substantially from
113
86 kgs in 1985-86 to 166 kgs in 2011-12 but it is still low as compared with
developed countries like USA. Japan, Germany, Italy and France.
(Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 2011-12 P.135). More emphasis is being
placed to promote the use of blended fertilizers so that correct ratio of NPK so
applied to different crops.
Table 5.5
Consumption of Fertilizer by Growers in Pakistan
from 1966-67 to 2011-12
Year Consumption of fertilizer
(000 N. tons) % Change
1966-67 111.83 -
1969-70 307.70 +175.15
1974-75 425.50 +13.83
1979-80 1044.30 +145.43
1984-85 1253.26 +20.01
1989-90 1890.10 +50.81
1994-95 2183.06 +15.50
1999-2000 2833.50 30.00
2004-05 3694 +30
2005-06 3804 +01
2006-07 3672 -03
2007-08 3581 -02
2008-09 3711 +04
2009-10 4361 +18
2010-11 3933 -10
2011-12 3861 -02
Sources: (i) Government of Pakistan, Economic Survey 1997-98, Islamabad, 1998 Statistical Section, PP. 47.
(ii) Ibid, (2003) Economic Survey, 2001-02, Statistical Section P.22.
(iii) Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 2011-12, Islamabad, P.127
Figure 5.3
Consumption of Fertilizer by Growers in Pakistan
from 1966-67 to 2011-12
114
Table 5.5 and Fig. 5.3 give information about the use of fertilizer by the
growers in the country. The demand has been increasing continuously as
shown in the Table 5.5. The local production does not meet the requirements
of the growers with the result the government used to import fertilizer every
year. Hence it is imperative to increase the output of this input to save foreign
exchange.
5.2.4 Pesticides
A large portion of output is wasted due to attack in different types pests and
insects crop production. The result is that crop damage was fairly high,
particularly in rice, during 1966-70 and 1976-77, in cotton in 1973-74, and in
sugarcane since 1971-72. The problem has become more acute in recent
time due to the expansion in the use of modern inputs and the increasing
intensity of cropping. Chemical fertilizers make the plant more succulent and
vulnerable to pests. Some of the HYV, particularly Maxi-Pak, are delicate and
susceptible to pest infestation. Attempts to develop insect and disease
resistant varieties are ineffectual because some of the major pests tend to
develop new bio types. The Fifth Plan estimated crop losses due to pests and
plant diseases to be 20 to 30 percent of the total output in normal years (Viqar
and Amjad 1984).
115
Table 5.6 Indicates use of pesticides by the growers to protect then crops
from various pests and diseases. The production of pesticides in Pakistan is
not sufficient to meet the requirements of the growers. Table 5.6 describes the
domestic production, import and total consumption of pesticides.
116
Table 5.6
Import, Production, Consumption and Value of Pesticides
From 1986-2011
Year Quantity in M.T
Year Import Production Total Value in
Million Rs.
1986 8834 5665 14,499 2978
1987 8019 6829 14,848 3259
1988 6256 6816 13,072 2334
1989 6869 7738 14,607 3642
1990 7502 9941 14,743 4581
1991 6157 14,056 20,213 5536
1992 6691 16,748 23,439 6554
1993 6125 14151 20279 5384
1994 10693 14175 24868 5808
1995 20136 23239 43375 7274
1996 24151 19068 43219 9987
1997 24168 13836 38004 9904
1998 22765 18811 41576 6960
1999 27210 18470 45680 7324
2000 19764 41535 61299 4971
2001 20678 26914 47592 7741
2002 27103 42794 69897 6790
2003 24028 54105 78133 8138
2004 40482 89116 129598 12592
2005 28371 76792 105164 10379
2006 12721 30855 43576 5906
2007 17939 76326 94265 10534
2008 9282 29904 39186 6940
2009 5825 34818 40643 7648
2010 10899 62733 73632 13855
2011 13928 35471 49399 9395
Source:
(i) Government of Pakistan, (2004) Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 2003-04, Islamabad, P. 151.
(ii) Ibid, 2011-12, Islamabad, P. 150.
117
5.2.5 Mechanization
When we talk about mechanization, it is essentially tractorization that we have
in mind, and other implements are often of a secondary nature. The reason
for this synonym it is the huge impact of tractorization on output, employment,
the nature of social relations of production, and so on. In our analysis of the
Green Revolution we saw how the HYV package was supplemented by
tractorization and how these tractors impacted on the agricultural process,
changing agricultural production for ever. In this section we will discuss the
effects and issues around tractorization/mechanization, and add some
discussion of the use of tube wells and how this process of mechanization in
the area of irrigation has affected agriculture over the year. The importance of
mechanization can be judged by the attitude of the various governments of
Pakistan in the early years. The Report of the National Commission on
Agriculture evaluates the attitude of the government in the early years as
follows:
Mechanization in Pakistan had a late start and slow initial progress because
of the Government policy of restricting mechanization based on the
apprehension that it would displace farm labor and causes the problem of
unemployment. Even the international agencies like the FAO and the World
Bank advocated caution and recommended that small growers now clear that
it was a misguided concern. Mechanization, to the extent it has taken place,
has resulted in increased farm incomes and manpower productivity and the
employment effect has, on the whole, been positive. Total employment in
agriculture increased from 9.8 million in 1965 to 14.6 million in 1986. The
value added perform worker also went up from Rs. 946 in 1960 to Rs. 1357 in
118
1985 (constant 1959-60 prices). However, the most important development
was the generation of increased farm related off farm employment in
manufacture, the supply and servicing of agricultural machinery, the supply of
other inputs and the post harvest handling of increased agricultural production
(Report of National Commission of Pakistan 1988).
Despite the early bias and recommendations against tractorization, there has
been an astronomical increase in the number of tractors available in the
country. In 1960 there were only 1,665 tractors on farm in Pakistan. In 1968
this went up to 16,583 and it had double again by 1975 and 1984, and in 1986
there were reported to be 187,255 tractors on farms in Pakistan (Ibid 1988). In
the ten years since then, it would be fair to speculate that the number for 1986
had at least doubled and had been increasing. Thus, tractors had become a
major ingredient in agricultural production in Pakistan as shown in Tables 5.7,
5.8, 5.9 and 10.
Table 5.7
Number of Privately Owned
Tractors by Market
Administrative
Unit
Massey
Ferguson
Ford
Fait
Ursus
Belarus
IMT
Others
Total
Punjab 151285 21224 139920 3541 11752 1831 1720 331273
Sindh 5817 3043 10,806 104 16129 110 73 36082
KPK 7799 554 13373 118 1757 61 305 33967
Baluchistan 6557 66 386 25 2066 20 04 9124
Pakistan 171458 24887 164485 3788 31704 2022 2102 400446
Source: Census Agriculture Machinery 2004, Quoted in Agricultural Statistics
of Pakistan 2011-12, Islamabad, 2012.P17
119
Table 5.8
Number of Private Tractors by Horse Power
TRACTORS BY HORSE POWER
Administrative Unit
Total Tractors
Below 26
26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 66 &
above Not
reported
Punjab 331273 85 405 16442 255158 40215 18434 534
Sindh 23,041 04 19 225 28,325 6428 1047 04
KPK 14,421 282 13 388 18,780 3980 472 52
Baluchistan 4,331 - 11 300 8261 348 196 08
Pakistan 400446 371 448 17385 310524 50971 20149 598
Source: Census of Agricultural Machinery 2004, Quoted in Agricultural
Statistics of Pakistan 2011-12, Islamabad. 2012 P.178.
Table 5.9
Number of Tractors by Type of Ownership
Administrative Unit Number of Tractors
Privately Owned Govt. Owned Total
Punjab 331273 632 331905
Sindh 36,082 163 36245
KPK 23967 302 24269
Baluchistan 9124 120 9244
Pakistan 400446 1217 401663
Source: Census of Agricultural Machinery 2004, Quoted in Agricultural
Statistics of Pakistans 2011-12, Islamabad, 2012, P.178.
An important feature of the tractorization process in Pakistan has been
described in table 5.9 that most of the tractors available had been of the larger
type about 78 percent in the 46-55 horsepower range, with 13 percent in the
56-65 horsepower range. Also, the ownership of tractors (table 5.10) was
concentrated, not surprisingly in the middle range of farm size. These were
the dynamic capitalist growers who played an important role in the Green
Revolution. Once consequence of the polices regarding tractors size and
ownership, as pointed out by Mahmood Hasan Khan, was that tractor
120
ownership gradually increased the size of landholdings, through both an
increase in the land leased from the poor and middle peasants and cultivation
by the landlords themselves at the expense of sharecroppers.
Table 5.10
Farms Reporting Use of Important Agricultural Machinery
(By Size of Farm)
Farm Size (acres)
All Farms
Tractors Tube Well / Pumps
Owned Rented Owned Rented
All size 8264
(100%)
737
(100%)
7227
(100%)
1086
(100%)
2711
(100%)
Under 5.0 31967
(48%)
81
(11%)
3541
(49%)
265
(24%)
1410
(52%)
5.0-12.5 2892
(35%)
214
(29%)
2529
(35%)
413
(38%)
922
(34%)
12.550.0 1074
(13%)
199
(27%)
745
(11%)
228
(21%)
271
(10%)
25.0-50.0 413
(5%)
147
(20%)
217
(3%)
119
(11%)
81
(3%)
50.0-150.0 165
(2%)
81
(11%)
72
(1%)
54
(5%)
27
(1%)
150.0 & over 21
(0.25%)
15
(2.8%)
62
(18%)
67
(1%)
2
(0.07%)
Source: Government of Pakistan, Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan, 2011-12, Islamabad, P.170.
The ownership of the tractors by small and medium farm owners is shown in
table 5.10. It indicates a much larger number of growers in this category rent
in tractors. This also supported by the evidence that growers are giving up
bullocks at a rate higher than the rate of acquisition of tractors, implying that
these growers hire tractors from other owners.
The increasing demand of tractors is shown in table 5.11 and Figure 5.4 it
described domestic production and import of tractors.
121
Table 5.11
Production and Import of Tractors
from 1986-87 – 2011-12
Year Production Import Total Increase or Decrease Previous year
1986-87 22,241 - 22,241 -
1987-88 20,819 - 20,819 -6.40
1988-89 24,639 - 24,639 +18.35
1989-90 19,939 - 19,939 -19.00
1990-91 13,841 - 13,841 -41.00
1991-92 10,077 - 10,077 -37.00
1992-93 16,628 - 16,628 +65.00
1993-94 15,129 - 15,129 -09.00
1994-95 17063 10084 27147 +79.00
1995-96 16218 6805 23023 -15.00
1996-97 10121 2020 12141 -47.00
1997-98 14242 1086 15328 +20.00
1998-99 26885 3281 30166 +97.00
1999-00 35038 2469 37507 +24.00
2000-01 32553 55 32608 -13.00
2001-02 24311 220 24531 -25.00
2002-03 27101 14000 41101 +68.00
2003-04 36059 11420 47479 +16.00
2004-05 44095 6543 50638 +07.00
2005-06 49642 7346 56988 +13.00
2006-07 54431 10051 64482 +13.00
2007-08 53598 8914 62512 -03.00
2008-09 60561 2636 63197 +01.00
2009-10 71607 12052 83659 +32.00
2010-11 71550 905 72455 -13.00
2011-12 48120 3676 51796 -29.00
Source: (i) Government of Pakistan 2012, Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 2003-2004, Islamabad, P.184.
(ii) Ibid 2012, Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 2012, P.177.
122
123
Figure 5.4
Production and Import of Tractors
from 1986-87 – 2011-12
The technology package, there are a number of issues around the apparently
simple and supposedly mere technical issue of sinking tube wells.
The first issue concerns the location of tube-wells: they were highly
concentrated regionally, mainly in the rich old settled districts and the canal
colony districts of the Punjab, indeed as many as 91 percent of the 76,000
tube-wells development. In the KPK and Baluchistan, the shortage of
accessible supplies of ground water, due to the hard stony mountains 123
terrain, made the depth of drilling required for tube-wells prohibitively
expensive. In Sindh the fact that groundwater is saline meant that this water
could not be used for agricultural purposes, and thus very few tube-wells were
installed. Thus it was not the entire province of the Punjab, but only a handful
of districts in the Punjab that were able to sink tube-wells and again all the
benefits of the Green Revolution. This some observers believe, caused
interregional disparities to grow (Khan, Mahmood Hassan 1981).
124
Secondly, given their size and cost, tube-wells were mainly installed by
landowners with over 25 acres of land. Mahmood Hasan Khan writes that
given the indivisible and large capacity of diesel and electric tube-wells, even
the middle peasants cannot afford their fixed and variable costs. Therefore,
there had been a high concentration of ownership of tube-wells (Khan
Mahmood Hasan 1986). 70 percent of tube-wells were put in by growers
owning over 25 acres, and only 4 percent by growers owning fewer than 13
acres (Nirmal 1986).
Thirdly, inducement to invest in tube wells was given to growers through large
public subsidies on fuel, installation costs, and maintenance. Moreover, the
Agricultural Development Bank of Pakistan (ADBP) followed a fairly liberal
credit policy and made numerous loans to growers so that they could setup
private tube wells. The information of tube wells is given in Table 5.12 and
Figure 5.5
Table 5.12
Total Number of Public and Private Tube Wells in Pakistan
From 1980/81 to 2011/12
Year Numbers of
Tube-Wells % Change
1980-81 1,99,673 -
1984-85 2,48,878 +31.74
1989-90 3,25,179 +30.66
1994-95 4,63,463 +42.52
1999-00 5,31,344 0.0
2004-05 9,84,294 +17.0
2005-06 9,99,569 +02.0
2006-07 10,25,836 +03.0
2007-08 10,16,125 -01.0
2008-09 10,69,991 +05.0
2009-10 10,88,018 +02.0
2010-2011 11,03,399 +01.0
125
2011-2012 11,10,634 +01.0
Sources: (i) Government of Pakistan, Agricultural Statistics of
Pakistan, 2011-12, Islamabad, P. 172
Figure 5.5
Total Number of Public and Private Tube Wells in Pakistan
From 1980/81 to 2011/12
5.2.6 Agricultural Credit
The provision of adequate credit facilities to the growers, especially the small
ones, is vital for making agricultural inputs accessible to the growers. Its
importance in a developing economy like Pakistan has further increased by
the fact that improved varieties of crops required more water, better seeds,
high doses of fertilizer and effective plant protection. The growers also require
credit for financing the long-term developments like land improvement, the
installation of tube wells, and the construction of storage facilities. In addition,
credit is required for adoption of technological developments and provision of
other long term investment aimed at increasing productivity of the farm and for
crop-ping intensity.
126
The Government of Pakistan had endeavored to meet the credit requirements
of the growers through various institutional sources. The Agricultural
Development Bank of Pakistan (ADBP) advanced loans on long term and
medium term leveling, field embankments and the purchase of bullocks and
petty machinery. The short term loans were advanced, in kind, for such inputs
such as fertilizers, pesticides and seed, etc, which were of special significance
to the small growers. Similarly,‘ taccavi’ loans are disbursed through the
Revenue Department and are provided to the growers under the Land
improvement. Act, 1883 and the West Pakistan Agricultural Loans Act, 1959.
Under the Banking Reforms Act, 1972 Commercial Banks were required to
advance loans to cultivators. The loan procedure of the banks has been
simplified by the introduction of “Pass Book”. These procedures, inter alia,
ensured that small growers were not neglected, as happened in the past, in
availing these facilities. The “Pass Book” was a document in which record of
agricultural land (with encumbrances, if any) owned by a particular person
was maintained. It is mandatory for the institutional credit agencies to
advance agricultural loans against the Pass Book. (Fifth Five Year plain 1978-
83).
The timely availability of credit to growers played an important role in
agricultural development. Credit disbursements during the Sixth Five Year
Plan increased from Rs. 6.3 billion in 1982-83 to Rs. 18 billion in 1987-88. The
interest free loan limit was raised from Rs. 6,000 to Rs. 12,000 during the
Plan period. Procedures and rules were simplified to enable small growers to
obtain credit through the issue of “Pass Books”, thereby minimizing
documentary requirements which were to be completed by growers to obtain
loans. Supervised credit scheme was also implemented to ensure proper
127
utilization of credit specially by the small growers. Mobile credit officers under
this program provide agricultural credit to the growers and ensure effective
disbursement, utilization and repayment. They also give useful advisory
service to the farmer on input use and cultural practices. Out of 45,000
villages in Pakistan, 37,000 had been covered under this scheme by the
ADBP up to 1986. The rest of the villages were expected to be covered in the
coming two or three years.(Viqar and Rashid 1984).
The total amount of credit from Institutional sources in 1952-53 was only Rs.
4.23 million but since then it had increased rapidly, particularly in the late 60’s
when under the ‘green revolution impetus’, the demand for outlays in inputs
was high, and after 1972 when commercial bank were encouraged to enter
this field as shown in Table 3.14. The total amount of credit from institutional
sources had gone up to Rs. 18147.45 million in 1985-86. The table also
shows percentage share of credit distributed by different agencies.
Further development by credit institutional is shown in Table 5.15 and Figure
5.7. Distribution of credit facility is being made by the Government budget
year. The cooperative movement in Pakistan is largely a rural credit
movement since agencies specializing in rural credit dominate its structure.
The primary cooperative credit society lends directly to growers, mostly
against personal security. The primary societies are supported by a hierarchy
of cooperative institutions like Central Cooperative Banks, Provincial
Cooperative Banks, and the Federal Bank for Cooperatives. (Viqar and
Rashid 1984).
Cooperative organizations have certain distinct advantages over other credit
sources. They exist at grass-root level and are financed by the growers. But in
Pakistan, we see that one major problem with the cooperative organization is
128
the nature of their relationship with the official controlling authority. The
lending policies of the Cooperatives may possibly contain a bias against small
growers in so far as loans are granted by them in proportion to the share
capital purchased by the members. In a study by Professor Gsotsch, it was
found that most programs aimed at improving the capital markets faced by
small growers have left the majority of the small growers untouched. Even
where there has been a willingness to absorb the cost of small growers’ credit
program, creating local institutions which are responsible to the weaker
sections of the farming community, it has been exceedingly difficult.” He found
that the direct distribution of government subsidized credit invited “extra-
market activities by the socially and politically powerful aimed at securing
available funds for themselves. Where credit was indirectly disbursed through
organizations made up of farmer representatives, due to disparity of power,
even credit programs aimed expressly at small farmer were unsuccessful.”
The bias in the distribution of agricultural credit also found expression in its
use-wise-wise distribution the loans advanced by the ADBP in 1979-80 for the
purchase of tractors used mostly by the bigger growers which accounted for
66 per cent of the total loans. On the other hand, only about 12 per cent of the
loans were advanced for the purchase of fertilizer, seeds and drought animals
which constituted a major portion of the total inputs on small farms.
We know that the credit package reflects the country’s economic needs and
requirements as visualized by the policy-makers and credit institutions. It may
also be governed by considerations of overall economic policy like yield
maximization and achieving food security for the population. However, the
growers may have their own objectives of income maximization, discounting
for risks, and a strong consumption preference which is not unnatural in a
129
society living for long at subsistence level. A credit program not growers
preference into consideration is not likely to go far. Thus, neither interests
subsidies nor input subsidies, not systems to control input-use are likely to
prove of much consequence in encouraging the of credit. The credit package
must promise higher returns at reasonable risks in order to induce the
growers to borrow for higher purposes. (Viqar and Rashid 1984).
130
CHAPTER – 06 DEVELOPMENT OF FOOD GRAINS IN
RELATION TO POPULATION REQUIREMENT
In fifth chapter new technology was discussed in order to increase the output
of agricultural sector in general and output of food grains in particular. In this
regard input policy was introduced to enhance the production of food grains in
relation to population requirement.
6.1 Land under Cultivation of Food Grains from 1965-66 to 1969-70.
As discussed in previous chapter that due to shortage of food grains, Pakistan
started to import wheat for maintaining the food requirements of the people.
The new technology was introduced during third five year plan (1965-66 /
1969-70) in agricultural sector in 1966. The cultivated area and output of food
grains from different crops are shown in Table 6.1 & 6.2 and Figure 6.2 & 6.2.
Table 6.1
Cultivated Area of Food Grains in Pakistan from 1965-66 to 1969-70
Year
In Million Hectares
Total
Change over
previously year 1964-
65 Wheat Rice Millet Sorghum Maize Barley
1965-66 5.155 1.393 0.840 0.594 0.542 0.154 8.678 -02
1966-67 5.344 1.409 0.837 0.558 0.554 0.162 8.864 +02
1967-68 5.983 1.419 0.914 0.584
0.608 0.174 9.682 +09
1968-69 6.160 1.555 07.36 0.608
0.616 0.156 9.698 +0.17
1969-70 6.229 1.622 0.631 0.491
0.648 0.157 9.778 +0.82
Total 28.87 7.40 3.96 2.84
2.97 0.80 46.7 10.00
Average 5.77 1.48 0.79 0.57
0.59 0.16 9.34 2.00
Source:- GOP, 1983, Pakistan Basic Facts 1980-81, Islamabad, 19th Edition,
PP35-36
Figure 6.1
Cultivated Area of Food grains in Pakistan from 1965-66 to 1969-70
131
Table 6.2
Production of Food grains in Pakistan from 1965-66 to 1969-70 (In Million Tons)
Year Wheat Rice Millet Sorghum Maize Barley Total
Change over
previously year
1964-65
1965-66 3.916 1.317 0.370 0.274 0.540 0.083 6.500 -11
1966-67 4.335 1.365 0.371 0.277 0.587 0.088 7.023 +08
1967-68 6.418 1.499 0.413 0.291 0.791 0.108 9.520 +36
1968-69 6.618 2.032 0.330 0.262 0.667 0.097 9.965 +05
1969-70 7.294 2.200 0.302 0.281 0.717 0.104 11.052 +11
Total 20.58 8.41 1.79 1.39 3.30 0.48 44.06 49
Average 5.72 1.68 0.36 0.28 0.66 0.096 8.81 10.00
Source:- GOP 1983, Pakistan Basic Facts 1980-81, Islamabad, 19th Edition PP 38-39
Figure 6.2
Production of Food grains in Pakistan from 1965-66 to 1969-70
(In Million Tons)
It is pointed out from the Table 6.1 and Figure 6.1 that the cultivated land
under various food crops was million 8.678 hectares at the introduction of new
technology which increased to million 9.778 hectares in the year 1969/70.
During five years its average stood million 9.34 hectares and rose at average
rate 2 percent.
132
Furthermore the output of food grains is illustrated in table 6.2. It is pointed
out that output of main food crops viz. wheat increased from million 3.916 tons
to million 7.294 tons, rice from million 1.317 tons to million 2.200 tons and
other crops except barley decreased during the period from 1965-66 to 1969-
70. The average output of wheat stood million 5.77 tons, rice million 1.48 tons
and an average of food grains reached to million 9.34 tons.
6.2 Cultivated Area and Output of Food grains During 1970/71 – 1976/77
Non Plan Period.
The progress of cultivated and production of food grains is analyzed in Table
6.3, Figure 6.2 and Table 6.4, Figure 6.3. It is observed from the table 6.3 that
over all cultivated area of food grains rose from million 9.569 hectares to
million 10.032 hectares during the period 1970/71 to 1976/77. The average
cultivated area under various food crops stood million 9.572 hectares. The
cultivated area under wheat crop enhanced from million 5.977 hectares to
million 6.390 hectares, rice from million 1.503 hectares to million 1.749
hectares and other food crops did not increase. The average cultivated area
of wheat crop became million 6.024 hectares, rice million 1.573 hectares and
cultivated area of remaining food crops did not increase.
Table 6.3 Cultivated Area of Food grains in Pakistan from 1970/71 to 1976/77
(In Million Hectares)
Year Wheat Rice Millet Sorghum Maize Barley Total
Change over
previously year
1969/70
133
1970-71 5.977 1.503 0.750 0.588 0.640 0.141 9.569 -2.13
1971-72 5.797 1.456 0.759 0.507 0.633 0.157 9.309 -2.72
1972-73 5.971 1.480 0.612 0.500 0.645 0.164 9.372 +0.67
1973-74 6.113 1.512 0.733 0.589 0.632 0.205 9.784 +4.40
1974-75 5.812 1.604 0.545 0.445 0.614 0.194 9.214 -5.83
1975-76 6.111 1.710 0.624 0.476 0.620 0.186 9.727 +5.57
1976-77 6.390 1.749 0.648 0.447 0.624 0.174 10.032 +3.14
Total 42.171 11.014 4.671 3.552 3.875 1.221 67.002 +3.10
Average 6.024 1.573 0.667 0.507 0.553 0.174 9.572 +0.44
Source:- GOP 1982 Pakistan Basic Facts 1980-81, Islamabad, 19th Edition, P.36
Figure 6.3 Cultivated Area of Food grains in Pakistan from 1970/71 to 1976/77
(In Million Hectares)
In table 6.4 the production of food grains is illustrated from 1970/71 to
1976/77.
The total output of food grains rose from million 10.168 tons to million 13.341
tons and its average stood million 11.612 tons. The output of wheat went up
from million 6.476 tons to million 9.144 tons and its average stood million
7.706 tons. Similarly the production of rice enhanced from million 2.200 tons
134
to million 2.737 tons and its average stood million 2.417 tons. The food crops
did not show any improvement.
Table 6.4 Production of Food grains in Pakistan from 1970/71 to 1976/77
(In Million Tons)
Year Wheat Rice Millet Sorghum Maize Barley Total
Change over
previously year
1969/70
1970-71 6.476 2.200 0.355 0.329 0.717 0.091 10.168 -8.00
1971-72 6.890 2.262 0.360 0.312 0.705 0.103 10.632 +4.56
1972-73 7.442 2.330 0.304 0.302 0.706 0.109 11.193 +5.28
1973-74 7.629 2.455 0.351 0.378 0.767 0.139 11.719 +4.70
1974-75 7.673 2.314 0.266 0.266 0.747 0.137 11.403 -2.70
1975-76 8.691 2.618 0.308 0.281 0.802 0.130 12.830 +12.51
1976-77 9.144 2.737 0.311 0.261 0.764 0.124 13.341 +3.98
Total 53.945 16.916 2.255 2.129 5.208 0.76 81.256 +20.33
Average 7.706 2.417 0.322 0.304 0.744 0.109 11.612 +2.90
Source: - GOP 1982 Pakistan Basic Facts 1980-81, Islamabad, 19th Edition, P.39
135
Figure 6.4 Production of Food grains in Pakistan
from 1970/71 to 1976/77 (In Million Tons)
The improvement of output of agriculture sector in general and not be
maintained during seven years period as compared to period 1965/66 to
1969/70. The main factors involved were heavy floods in 1973, Tarbela
mishap 1947 in 1974/75, heavy rain falls in 1975/76 and sever pest attacks
1975, 1976 and 1977 which deteriorated not only output of food crops but also
other lash crops. (Pakistan Basic Facts 1980-81, P.28).
6.3 Cultivated Area and Food grains Production During 1978/79 – 1982/83.
This period is known as fifth five year plan (1978/79 – 1982/83). The
cultivated area of different food crops and production of food grains is
presented in table 6.5. It is observed from the table that cultivated area of
wheat increased from million 6.360 hectares to million 07.398 hectares, rice
from million 1.899 hectares to million 1.978 hectares and cultivated area of
food crops from million 10.032 hectares to million 11.247 hectares which
showed change 12.11 percent during five year period.
136
The output of wheat rose from million 8.367 tons to million 12.414 as in
dictated 48.37 percent change during the five year period and assessed
growth rate about 10% per year. The production of rice went up from million
2.950 to million 3.445 tons, brought change 16.78 percent and examined
average growth rate 3.36 percent. The cultivated area of food crops enhanced
from million 10.032 hectares to million 11.247 hectares and indicated change
12.11 percent. The output of overall food grains increased from million 12.361
tons to million 17.481 tons, showed 36 percent change and an average
growth rate 7.2 percent per year.
Table 6.5 Performance of Cultivated Area and Food Grains Production
During the Fifth Plan Period (1978/79 to 1982/83) Cultivated Area of food grains
(In Million Hectares ) Production of food grains
(In Million Tons)
Crop Year
1978/79 Year
1982/83
Change Over
1978/79
Year 1978/79
Year 1982/83
Change over
1977/78
Wheat 6.360 7.398 +16.32 8.367 12.414 +48.37
Rice 1.899 1.978 +04.16 2.950 3.445 +16.78
Maize 0.656 0.790 +20.43 0.821 1.005 +22.41
Millet 0.641 0.438 -32.00 0.318 0.210 -34.00
Jowar (Sorghum)
0.520 0.380 -27.00 0.284
0.222 -22.00
Barley 0.167 0.263 +57.49 0.121 0.185 +53.00
Total 10.032 11.247 +12.11 12.861 17.481 +36.00
Source: (i) GOP 1982, 19th Edition PP.36-39 (ii) GOP 1998, Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 1996-97, Islamabad, PP 3-25.
137
Figure 6.5 Performance of Cultivated Area and Food Grains Production
During the Fifth Plan Period (1978/79 to 1982/83)
6.4 Cultivated Area and Output of Food Grains During 1983/84-1989/90
The cultivated area, total output of food grains and change during the period
1983/84 – 1989/90 is illustrated in Table 6.6 and Figure 6.5. It is pointed from
table 6.6 that cultivated area under food grains increased from million 11.274
hectares to million 11.927 hectares which brought change 5.79 percent. The
output of food grains rose from million 15.854 tons to million 19.411 tons
which showed overall change 22.44 percent during this period and went up at
average growth rate 3.21 percent. This achievement was made by the
expansion of cultivated land and irrigation facilities to the growers.
138
Table 6.6
Performance of Cultivated Area and Food Grains Production During 1983-84 to 1989-90 in Pakistan
Cultivated Area of food grains
(In Million Hectares )
Production of food grains
(In Million Tons)
Crop Year
1983/84
Year
1989/90
Change Over
1983/84
Year
1983/84
Year
1989/90
Change over
1983/84
Wheat 7.343 7.845 +06.84 10.882 14.315 +31.55
Rice 1.989 2.107 +05.93 3.340 3.320 -0.60
Maize 0.798 0.863 +08.15 1.014 1.179 +16.27
Millet 0.553 0.517 -06.51 0.256 0.204 -20.31
Joswar (Sorghum)
0.391 0.440 +12.53 0.222 0.262 +18.02
Barley 0.200 0.155 -22.5 0.140 0.131 -06.43
Total 11.274 11.927 +05.74 15.854 19.411 +22.44
Source:- GOP 1998, Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 1996-97, Islamabad,
PP03-25
Figure 6.6 Performance of Food Grains Production During 1983-84 to 1989-90 in Pakistan
6.5 Changes in Cultivated Area and Production of Food grains During
1990/91 – 1999/2000 and 2000/01 – 2011/12
The performance of food grains, cultivated area and output of different crops
can be judged from Table 6.7, Figure 6.6, Table 6.8 and Figure 6.7 during the
period 1990/91-1999/2000 and 2000/01-2011/12.
Table 6.7 shows that area under wheat increased from million 07.11 hectares
to million 08.46 hectares and changed by 19 percent during ten years period.
The cultivated area under wheat crop enhanced by an average 1.9 percent.
The cultivated area under rice rose from million 02.11 hectares to million
139
02.52 hectares and change took place at 1.18 percent during the same
cultivated area under food crops rose from million 11.14 hectares to million
12.83 hectares with the increase of 15.17 percent during ten years period that
indicated an average 1.5 percent per year. Considering the output of wheat
and rice both increased due to favorable weather conditions. The output of
wheat jumped from million 14.62 tons to millions 21.08 tons and change took
place 47.21 percent at an average increase 4.72 percent per year. There was
bumper output of rice during this period. The production of rice went up from
million 3.26 tons to million 5.16 tons. The change took place by 58.28 percent
at an average increase growth rate 5.8 percent. The overall food grains
production enhanced from million 19.34 tons to million 28.39 tons with an
increase 47 percent during this period. The average growth rate was counted
4.7 percent.
Table 6.7
Cultivated Area and Food grains production in Pakistan
from 1990/91 to 1999/2000
Food Crops
Cultivated Area under Food grains (In Million Hectares)
Production of Food grains (In Million Tons)
1990/91 1999/2000 Change over the
year 1990/91 1999/2000
Change over the year
Wheat 07.11 08.46 +19.00 14.32 21.08 +47.21
Rice 02.11 02.52 +01.18 03.26 05.16 +58.28
Maize 0.85 0.96 +13.00 01.18 01.65 +40.00
Millet 0.49 0.31 -37.00 0.20 0.16 -20.00
Jowar (Sorghum)
0.42 0.36 -14.00 0.24 0.22
-08.00
Barley 0.16 0.12 -25.00 0.14 0.12 -14.00
Total 11.14 12.83 15.17 19.34 28.39 +47.00
Source:- GOP, December 2004, Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 2003-2004, Islamabad, PP 03-25.
140
Figure 6.7 Cultivated Area and Food Grains Production in Pakistan
from 1990/91 to 1999/2000
Looking at table 6.8, it is observed that cultivated area under food grains rose
from million 12.19 hectares to million 13.052 hectares that changed of percent
during this period with an average increase rate 0.59 percent. The output of
main food crops viz. wheat increased from million 19.024 tons to million
23.473 tons and rice million 04.803 tons to million 06.160 tons. Overall
production of food grains enhanced from million 25.986 tons to million 34.478
tons at an average growth rate 2.7 percent.
After analyzing the output of food grains since the introduction of green
revolution in Pakistan, it is pointed out that total cultivated area under food
crops was million 8.678 hectors in the year 1965/66 which increased to million
13.052 hectares in the year 2011-12. It indicates that million 4.374 hectares
more land was brought under food crops cultivated during 47 years.
The output of food grains rose from million 8.678 tons to million 34.478 tons
during the period 1965/66 to 2011/12. This progress was achieved due to (a)
expansion of cropped area
141
(b) Increase in yield per hectare (c) extension of irrigation facilities to grower
(d) utilization of modern input. We now analyzed the requirements of food
grains in relation to increasing growth of population in Pakistan.
Table 6.8
Cultivated Area and Food Grains Production in Pakistan During 2000/01 to 2011/12.
Food grains
Cultivated Area under Food grains (In Million Hectares)
Production of Food grains (In Million Tons)
2000/01 2011/12 Change over the
year 2000/01 2011/12
Change over the year
Wheat 08.181 08.650 +06.382 19.024 23.473
+23.386
Rice 02.210 02.571 +16.334 04.803 06.160
+28.253
Maize 0.942 01.087 +1.153 01.643 04.338
+164.029
Millet 0.390 0.458 +17.436 0.199 0.304
+52.764
Jowar (Sorghum)
0.354 0.214 -38.857 0.218 0.137
-37.156
Barley 0.113 0.072 -36.283 0.099 0.066
-33.333
Total 12.19 13.052 +07.071 25.986 34.478
+32.679
Source:- GOP, 2013 Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 2011-12, Islamabad,
PP.02-24.
142
Figure 6.8
Cultivated Area and Food Grains Production in Pakistan During 2000/01 to 2011/12
6.6 Food Requirements in Relation to Population Growth in Pakistan
Among the basic requirements of human beings in the world, food is the most
important for survival. Scarcity of food causes under-nutrition and malnutrition
in the population and, in case of severe shortages, incidence of sickness,
starvation and premature deaths are common. There is a certain minimum
requirement of food which governments of all developing countries are
constantly endeavoring to provide through the huge investments made in
agriculture.
The present relationship between food and population leaves a doubt as to
whether the current production of food can actually manage to satisfy the
demands of the rapidly growing population of the world. This doubt arises
because most of the developing countries are experiencing very rapid
population growth rates due to which, as is apprehended, food and nutrition
requirements of these countries will not be met adequately. As the demand for
143
food has been increasing at a very rapid rate, it is against this back-ground
that the relationship between food and population in Pakistan.
6.7 Population Growth
The population of Pakistan is characterized by a high birth rate. It has shown
more than fourfold increase during the last 67 years and at present the sixth
largest population country in the world. It ranks after China, India, U.S.A,
Indonesia and Brazil as indicated in table 6.9 and Figure 6.9.
Table 6.9
World’s Top Six Populated Countries in 2003 and Estimated 2050 Year Estimated Year 2050
Rank in 2003 Country
Population (Million)
Rank in 2050
Country Population
(Million)
1 China 1289 1 India 1628
2 India 1069 2 China 1394
3 USA 292 3 USA 422
4 Indonesia 220 4 Pakistan 349
5 Brazil 176 5 Indonesia 316
6 Pakistan 149 6 Brazil 307
Source:- World Population Datasheet (2003) Population Reference Bureaus, USA, P.5.
144
Figure 6.9
World’s Top Six Populated Countries in 2003 and Estimated 2050
The population of Pakistan has been increasing continuously since 1947.
When we analyze survey data of population, given in table 6.10 and Figure
6.8 it is pointed out that 1.8 percent growth was rate in 1951, 2.4 percent in
1961, 3.7 percent in 1972 but a slight decrease occurred from 1981 to 1991 at
3.1 percent. It started to decline from 3.1 percent to 2.4 percent in 2011. If this
growth continues, it will definitely surpass 349 million by the year 2050 as
indicated in table 6.9 and Figure 6.9.
145
Table 6.10
Population Growth in Pakistan
Year Population
(Million) Annual Growth Rate
(Percentage)
1951 33.6 1.8
1961 43.0 2.4
1972 65.3 3.7
1981 85.0 3.1
1991 112.6 3.1
2001 142.9 2.7
2011 177.1 2.4
Source:- (i) Government of Pakistan (2004), Economic Survey 2003-04, Islamabad, Statistical Section, P.4.
(II) Government of Pakistan (2011), Economic Survey 2011-12, Islamabad, P.162
Figure 6.10
Population Growth in Pakistan
The rapid growth of population leads from demand food in the country as
discussed in Table 6.10 and Figure 6.10.
6.8 Per Capita Availability of Food
146
The population of the country has been increasing continuously and has
reached to million 180. In this regard per capita of food is explained in table
6.11 since independence to 1985-86.
Table 6.11 Per Capita Availability of food from 1947/48 to1985/86
Year Wheat Rice Bajra Jowar Maize Barley Gram
1947-48 106 22 10 7 12 4 15
1950-51 119 26 12 8 12 4 23
1955-56 90 24 9 7 12 3 19
1960-61 90 25 7 5 10 3 15
1965-66 78 26 7 6 11 2 11
1970-71 107 36 6 5 12 1 8
1975-76 122 37 4 4 11 2 8
1980-81 139 38 3 3 12 2 4
1984-85 118 37 3 2 11 2 6
1985-86 140 32 3 3 11 1 6
Source:- (i) Government of Pakistan, Economic Survey 1986-87, Finance Division, Economic Adviser’s Wing Islamabad. (ii) GOP 1983 Pakistan Basic Facts 1980-81 Islamabad, 19th Edition, PP 45-60
The growth of agriculture since Independence has been fluctuating, while the
overall growth seems to have been satisfactory only during very few periods
of the history of Pakistan. Taken as a whole, the annual growth rates of major
food items since Independence have been less than four percent per annum,
thereby, indicating a slower overall growth of agricultural production. So, the
Government has had to import food grains to meet food shortages in the
country.
Although higher growth rate in agriculture indicates sufficiency in relation to
population, the real situation of agricultural growth is more significant, when
related to population growth in the form of per capita availability of food. The
availability of food per capita in Pakistan since 1947-48 is shown in table 6.11.
as can be seen from the table, per capita production of wheat remained in a
state of complete depression, but regained its original level in 1970-71. Its
decline has been about 26 percent during the first 23 years, then in
subsequent years it indicated a rise. During the last 37 years, per capita
wheat production has increased by only about 32 percent while the population
147
during this period increased almost three times. Rice production per capita
has also improved, but rather slowly since Independence, although its overall
increase has been about 60 to 70 percent.
Production per capita of other crops shows a continuous decline during the
last 37 years, but the growth of food production, namely that of wheat and
rice, did increase but not as fast as the population, whereas, in other food
crops, per capita production fell far short of population growth.
Table 6.12
Annual Growth Rate of Per Capita Availability of Major Food Grain in Pakistan
1950-51 to 1985-86
Period Wheat Rice Bajra Jowar Maize Barley Gram
1950-51 to 1959-60 -2.44 -0.85 -7.96 -3.10 0.38 -1.56 -4.71
1960-61 to 1964-65 1.02 3.07 6.11 3.25 0.73 -3.72 -1.41
1965-66 to 1969-70 12.34 12.09 -8.38 -2.90 1.85 1.50 -5.14
1970-71 to 1977-78 0.49 1.04 -4.26 -4.98 -1.27 1.99 -0/17
1978-79 to 1982-83 2.56 -1.73 -11.06 -5.98 2.84 6.92 -7.86
1983-84 to 1985-86 0.75 1.02 -3.20 -2.26 -0.24 -3.68 -2.45
Source:- Government of Pakistan, Economic Survey 1987-88, Finance Division, Economic Adviser’s Wing, Islamabad.
Growth rates of per capita availability of major food items for certain time
periods are given in table 6.12. As for agricultural production, per capita
availability of food items experienced exactly the same type of fluctuation.
Although there appears to be a positive correlation between the growth of
food production and growth of per capita availability of food, the magnitude of
growth in terms of per capita availability seems to be much lower compared
with the growth in agriculture. The only exception was the five year period
1965-66 to 1969-70, during which the country achieved a fantastic growth in
agriculture. The lower growth in per capita availability compared with the total
growth results from higher growth of population.
Table 6.13
148
Per Capita Annual Food Availability From 1986-87 to 2009-2010 in Pakistan
Year Production Million
Tons Per Capita
Availability (Kg) Increase or Decrease over
previous year 1985-86=140kg
1986-87 17.23 132.75 -5.18
1987-88 17.22 130.64 -1.59
1988-89 19.40 135.49 +3.63
1989-90 19.31 136.16 -3.19
1990-91 19.34 137.44 +10.44
1994-95 22.42 138.20 +0.55
1999-2000 28.39 158.83 +14.86
2000-2001 25.99 136.51 -14.05
2001-2002 24.31 135.53 -0.72
2002-2003 25.89 142.38 +5.05
2003-2004 26.96 143.83 +1.01
2004-2005 29.91 142.58 -0.87
2005-2006 30.40 140.98 -1.12
2006-2007 32.33 144.79 +3.00
2007-2008 29.79 155.04 +7.08
2008-2009 35.06 153.99 -1.29
2009-2010 34.76 148.56 -3.53
Total Average 2413.67 +14.85
142.00 0.87
Source:- (i) GOP, Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 1990-91, PP 261-265 (ii)Ibid, 2004, 2003-04, PP 255-257 (iii)Ibid 2008, 2007-08, PP 249-251 (iv)Ibid 2012, 2011-12, PP 249-251.
149
Figure 6.11
Per Capita Annual Food Availability from 1986-87 to 2009-2010 in Pakistan
Further information regarding, per capita availability of food is described in
table 6.13 and Figure 6.11. It is evident from the table that production of the
food grains increased from million 17.23 tons to millions 34.76 tons during the
period 1986-87 to 2009-2010. Just 2 fold more. But per capita daily availability
average stood kg 142 at the average rate growth 0.87 percent which indicates
discouraging growth rate. Hence import of wheat continued as indicated in
Table 6.14 and Figure 6.11.
150
Table 6.14 Import of Wheat from 1961-2012 from Abroad
Year Wheat (In Million Tons)
1961 1.080
1976 0.292
1980 0.604
1990/91 2.047
1994/95 2.500
1995/96 2.270
1996/97 1.930
1997/98 2.380
1998/99 4.11
1999/2000 2.33
2000/2001 1.59
2001/2002 1.67
2002/2003 1.479
2003/2004 1.080
2004/2005 1.390
2005/2006 6.820
2006/2007 1.70
2007/2008 1.708
2011/2012 2.685
Source:- (i) Govt. of Pakistan 1964 Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 1962/63, PP 205-207. (ii) Ibid 1982, Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan Islamabad, PP 207-209 (iii) Ibid 2004, Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 2003/2004, Islamabad, P.212 (iv) Ibid 2008, Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 2008-2008, Islamabad, P.206 (v) Ibid 2012, Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 2011-2012, Islamabad, P. 205
From foregoing discussion, it is pointed out that increased food grains could
not maintain the requirements of the country. Therefore, Pakistan has been
importing country wheat from abroad and deficiency of food grains created
burden on the economy of the country.
CHAPTER 07
151
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
7.1 Introduction
This research highlights the impact of land resources on food security in
Pakistan. The economy of rural people depends on agriculture sector. There
are about 80 percent small growers, 20 percent are middle and large growers.
The size of farm of small grower is less then subsistence holding and the
middle growers have the size to subsistence holding. The large growers
(Landlords) possess more land and the size of their farm is large. The
required research is conducted on cultivable land which is not cultivated due
to some constraints mostly faced by small growers. If that uncultivated land is
cultivated, it can maintain food security in Pakistan and surplus food- grains
can earn foreign exchange.
Keeping in view the above mentioned problem, research is carried out
through primary and secondary data. Following the survey method study 450
respondents viz. small, middle and large were selected from three districts
namely Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki, Sindh Province of Pakistan. 150
respondents from each district are chosen.
7.2 Theoretical Analysis of research
It is very important from the research point of view that policies of the
government for increasing the output of food grains in relation to growth of
population since the inception of Pakistan be analyzed. Furthermore,
objectives of those policies were achieved or not. If not, what were the factors.
Therefore, theoretical analysis provides guideline to find out real problem of
the research.
7.2.1 Analysis of Agriculture from 1947/48 – 1964/65
152
Agriculture dominates the economy of Pakistan since its inception and was
surplus in food grains. According to census report, 1951 the population of the
country was 38 million. In the initial stage the newly independent country had
refugees and administrative problems which were given high priority than
agriculture development. Further more attention was given to industrial
development as Pakistan got minimum share 34 industrial units out of 921
units at the time of partition. The six year development program (commencing
from 1951) prepared for the Colombo plan, proposed and implemented for
development of the industry. Consequently, industrial output increased rapidly
(three-fold in four years) but agriculture remained stagnant; food grain output
declined from 6 million tons in 1950-51 to 5 million tons in 1954-55.
The drought of 1952 reduced food-grains production to 4 million tons
necessitating the import of about 1 million tons of wheat. During this period,
the population increased by 1.7 percent and growth rate stood 0.3 percent
which compelled the import of food grain of wheat 3 million tons. Policies did
not change in favour of agriculture during the first five years plan which
became operative in 1955. This plan did recommend high priority for
agricultural development but it was not approved for two years and the pro-
industry till of policy continued. During 1950-60, food grain output increased at
an annual average rate of 2.6% and population increased at 2.8% percent.
The demand for food, however, continued to increase and annual food grain
imports during the fifties was 5 million. In order to manage scarce food
supplies, the government introduced rationing and compulsory procurement. It
was at below market prices which produced a strong disincentive; this
reinforced existing constraints of (i) a feudal land tenure system (ii)
unsatisfactory credit facilities (iii) poor availability of important agricultural
inputs (iv) inadequate irrigation supplies and (v) non remunerative technology.
153
The high yielding varieties for grains did not become available till the late
sixties as a result value added in agriculture increased at the unsatisfactory
rate 1.6 percent per annum crop yields declined throughout the period and
expansion of cropped area provided the major thrust for the small growth that
did occur. More emphasis was given to agriculture by the public as well as
private sectors. Incentives were extended by the government to private sector
which resulted an improvement in the output of food grains and increased to
million 7 tones. But requirement could not be met with the increasing growth
of population.
7.2.2 Analysis of New Technology
The new technology was introduced during 1966 in agriculture sector, which
made improvement. The cultivated area under food grains was extended
from million 8.678 hectares to million 13.052 hectares and output of food
grains increased from million 6.5 tones to million 34.478 tones during the
period 1965/66 to 2011/2012 as discussed in table 6.1, 6.2, and 6.8.
Population rose to 177 million. The increasing production of food grains could
not meet the requirements of the country. Pakistan continued to import of
wheat from the abroad and spent huge foreign exchange on this item.
The Theoretical analysis pointed out that though output of food grains
increased due to input policy but it did not solve the problem of food security.
Now question arises, where is the problem. In this regard, primary data was
collected from three districts Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki, Sindh province of
Pakistan to find out problem and its solution.
7.3 Analysis of Primary Data in Study Area.
It is observed from the secondary data that various policies were introduced
by the government for meeting the requirement of the food grains but
154
deficiency of food grains existed in the country. Keeping in view this problem,
research of primary data was felt essential.
The primary data was related to the house hold growers who have their own
land. The required data is collected from three districts viz. Khairpur, Sukkur
and Ghotki Sindh province of Pakistan. From each district 150 respondents
were chosen and interviewed on same random sample. In this way 450
growers were selected from three districts. They were classified into three
groups i.e. A, B and C. Group A indicates small, B middle and C large
growers. All groups are engaged in farm activities.
7.3.1 Analysis of Farm Holding in Survey Area.
(a) In Khairpur district total survey farm holding was 1650 acres. Out of which
small growers possessed 620 acres that comprised 38%, middle growers 280
acres, percent 17 and large growers 750 acres that stood 45% of total
holdings. The average size of small farm stood 5.2 acres, middle farm 14
acres and large farm 75 acres as described in Table 7.1
155
Table 7.1 Total Farm Holding of survey Area and Average size of Farm in District –
Khairpur During 2011-2012, Sindh Province, Pakistan
S. No Size of Farm
In Acres No. of
Growers
Farm Holding in
Acres
Average size of Farm in
Acres
Percent of Total Farm
Holding
1 Small 0-5
120 620 5.2 38%
2 Medium 05-15
20 280 14.0 17%
3 Large 15-60
10 750 75.00 45%
Total 150 1650 100
Source: Survey Data 2011-2012
(b) In Sukkur district-respondents had 1715 acres. The small growers
possessed 38% middle growers 17.2 percent large 45.8% growers of total
farm holding. The average size small farm stood 5.3 acres, middle 14.8
acres and large farm 78.5 acres as shown in table 7.2.
Table 7.2
Total Farm holding of survey Area and Average Size of Farm in District Sukkur during 2011-2011, Sindh Province Pakistan
S. No Size of Farm
In Acres No. of G/ Average
Farm Holding & in Acres
Average size of Farm In
Acres
Percent of Total Farm
Holding
1 Small 0-5
120 635 5.3 37.0
2 Medium 05-15
20 295 14.8 17.2
3 Large
15-60 and above
10 785 78.5 45.8
Total 150 1715
Source: Survey Data 2011-2012
(c) In Ghotki district respondents possessed total farm holding 1600 acres.
Out of which 615 acres had to small growers, 265 acres to middle growers
and 720 acres to large growers. The small growers had 38.4% of total farm
holdings and average size of farm stood 5.13 acres where as middle growers
possessed 16.6% and average size of farm was 13.25 acres. But large
156
growers had 785 acres which stood 45% and average size of large farm was
78.5 areas as indicated in table 7.3.
Table 7.3 Total Farm Holding and Average Farm Size of Survey Area in Ghotki District
During 2011-2012, Sindh province Pakistan
S. No Size of Farm
In Acres No. of
Growers Farm Holding
& in Acres Average size
of Farm
Percent of Total Farm
Holding
1 Small 0-5
120 615 5.13 38.4
2 Medium 05-15
20 265 13.25 16.6
3 Large
15-60 and above
10 720 72.00 45.0
Total 150 1600 100.00
Source: Survey Data 2010-2011
It is observed that large growers possessed more land and they had enough
resources to utilize the land for cultivation than the middle and small growers.
Therefore, they possessed sound economic position in rural areas.
7.3.2 Cultivated and Uncultivated Area of Survey Farms
The survey farms of three districts comprised majority of small growers were
below the subsistence holding, middle growers had subsistence holding and
large growers possessed more land their number was less. Table 7.4 and
Figure 7.1 indicate the position of Khairpur district while conducting interview
of different growers.
157
Table 7.4 Cultivated and Uncultivated Area of Sample Farms during 2011-2012 in
District-Khairpur, Sindh Province, Pakistan
Group Size of Farm In Acres
No. of Farms
Total Holding in
Acres
Cultivated Land of
Area in Acres
Uncultivated Area in Acres
% of cultivated
area
% of Uncultivated
Area
A Small 0-05
120 620 380 240 61.3 38.7
B Medium 05-15
20 280 210 70 75.0 25.0
C Large
15-60 and above
10 750 660 90 88.0 12.0
Total 150 1650 1250 400 76.00 24.00
Source: Survey Data 2011-2012
Figure 7.1
Cultivated and Uncultivated Area of Sample Farms During 2011-2012 in
District-Khairpur, Sindh Province, Pakistan
The total area of farms group A of small growers was 620 acres. Out of which
they cultivated 380 acres and stood 61.3%. The uncultivated area remained
240 acres and comprised 38.7. The total area group B of medium growers
was 280 acres and 210 acres were brought under cultivation which stood 75%
of land holding and indicated 25 percent of uncultivated area. The large
158
growers possessed 750 acres and cultivated 660 acres resulted 90% and
10% uncultivated area of this group. The total farm holding of this district was
1650 acres and out of which 1250 acres were cultivated. It resulted overall
76% cultivated land and 24% remained uncultivated. In Sukkur district group
A classified small growers, group B medium growers and group C large
growers. Total holding was 635 acres to group A, Out of which this group
cultivated 370 acres and indicated 58.27% and uncultivated land stood
41.73%. Group B possessed 295 acres, they cultivated 215 acres, which
resulted 72.88 percent of total holding of this group. 80 acres could not be
cultivated that showed 27.12%. Group C belonged 785 acres. Out of which
625 acres were brought under cultivation and 160 acres remained
uncultivated. The result of cultivated area stood 79.62% and 20.38%
uncultivated.
The total survey holding of this district was 1715 acres. Out of which 1210
acres were cultivated by the growers and stood 70.55%. The uncultivated
area remained 505 acres and showed 29.45%. The detail information is
explained in table 7.5 and Figure 7.2.
159
Table 7.5 Cultivated and Uncultivated Area of Sample Farms during 2011-2012 in
District Sukkur, Sindh Province. Pakistan
Group Size of Farm In Hectares
No. of Farm
Total Holding in Acres
Cultivated Land Area in Acres
Un cultivated
Land Area in Acres
% of cultivated
area of Total
% of Uncultivated Area Total
A Small 0-05
120 635 370 265 58.27 41.73
B Medium
5-15 20 295 115 80 72.88 27.12
C Large
15-60 and above
10 785 625 160 79.62 20.38
Total 150 1715 1210 505 70.55 29.45
Source: Survey Data 2011-2012
Figure 7.2
Cultivated and Uncultivated Area of Sample Farms During 2011-2012 in
District Sukkur, Sindh Province. Pakistan
In distinct Ghotki group A Indicates small growers, group B medium growers
and group C large growers. Group A possessed 615 acres and cultivated
365 acres which highlighted 59.35%. This group could not cultivate 250 acres
that indicated 40.65% of total farm holding. The total farm holding area of
group B was 265 acres and cultivated 195 acres that showed 74%. The
uncultivated acres remained 70 acres that resulted 26% of total area of this
160
group. Group C belonged to 720 acres and cultivated 605 acres that resulted
84% and 16% uncultivated.
The total farm holding of this district was surveyed 1600 acres. All group
cultivated 1165 acres and 435 acres remained uncultivated. The overall
result of cultivated land stood 73% and uncultivated 27%. The detailed
information is given in table 7.6 and Figure 7.3.
Table 7.6
Cultivated and Uncultivated Area of Sample Farms during 2011-2012 in District Ghotki, Sindh Province, Pakistan
S. No
Size of Farm In Hectares
No. of Farm
Total Holding in
Acres
Cultivated Land Area in Acres
Un cultivated Land Area in Acres
% of cultivated area of
% of Uncultivated
Area
1 Small 0-05
120 615 365 250 59.35 40.65
2 Medium 05-15
20 265 195 70 74.00 36.00
3 Large
15-60 and above
10 720 605 115 84.00 16.00
Total 150 1600 1165 435 73.00 27.00
Source: Survey Data 2011-2012
Figure 7.3
Cultivated and Uncultivated Area of Sample Farms during 2011-2012 in District Ghotki, Sindh Province, Pakistan
7.3.3 Factors of Uncultivated Land
161
While conducting interviews from the different categories of growers of survey
area Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki districts regarding uncultivated land they
described the following factors.
Irrigation
Irrigation is the most important factor for agriculture output. Modern
techniques require more capital for this sector. Table 7.7 describes irrigation
facility to growers in Khairpur district.
Table 7.7 Irrigation Facility to Growers in Khairpur District-During Survey Period 2011-
2012 Sindh province Pakistan
S. No
Size of Farm In Acres
No. of Growers
Irrigation Facility to Growers
Deficiency Irrigation Facility to Growers
% of Growers Irrigation Facility
Deficiency of Irrigation Facility to Growers
1 Small 0-05
120 40 80 33 67
2 Medium 05-15
20 15 05 75 25
3 Large
15-60 and above
10 08 02 80 20
Total 150 73 87 49 51
Source: Survey Data 2011-2012
Category A belonged to 120 small growers. Out of which 40 growers were
getting irrigation facility in time because their farms were near the water
course and the land of other 80 growers were situated in middle and tail of
watercourses. Therefore, they did not get this facility timely. Besides the
adjutant big landlords also created disturbance in the flow of water towards
the land of small growers. Thus they did not bring their all land under
cultivation. In this way, 63% small growers faced deficiency of irrigation
problem.
The category B comprised 20 middle growers. Out of which 15 growers got
sufficient irrigation facility and 5 growers did not get because their land was in
middle water course. The category C indicated 10 large growers. These types
162
of growers had large farms and enough capital. Out of which 8 got enough
irrigation facilities and remaining 2 faced deficiency of water. They could
arrange water for their land through tube wells. It is analyzed that overall 49%
growers were getting irrigation facilities and 51% growers were facing
irrigation problem. Mostly small growers faced this constraint and overall from
survey holding 1650 acres, 400 acres were not cultivated.
Similarly, in Sukkur district category A small growers got 35% irrigation facility
and 65% were facing deficiency. Category B middle growers and Category C
large growers both received 90% irrigation facility and 10% deficiency of
water. Overall 46% availed irrigation facility and 54% faced deficiency of
water. Mostly small growers suffered. This is illustrated in table 7.8.
Table 7.8
Irrigation Facility to Growers in Sukkur District During Survey period 2011-2012 Sindh Province Pakistan
S. No
Size of Farm In Acres
No. of Growers
Irrigation Facility to Growers
Deficiency Irrigation Facility to Growers
% of Growers Irrigation Facility
Deficiency of Growers Who Got Deficiency
Facility
1 Small 0-05
120 42 78 35 65
2 Medium 05-15
20 18 02 90 10
3 Large
15-60 and above
10 09 01 90 10
Total 150 69 81 46 54
Source: Survey Data 2011-2012
In Ghotki district category A small growers got 37.5% irrigation facility and
62.5% faced deficiency of water. Category B middle growers received 85%
irrigation facility and 15% deficiency of water. Category C large growers got
100% irrigation facility and faced nothing deficiency as described in table 7.9.
Table 7.9 Irrigation Facility to Growers in Ghotki District-During Survey Period 2011-
2012 Sindh Province Pakistan
S. No
Size of Farm In Acres
No. of Growers
Irrigation Facility to Growers
Deficiency Irrigation Facility to Growers
% of Growers to Irrigation Facility
% of Deficiency of Growers to
Facility in Growers
163
1 Small 1-05
120 45 75 37.5 62.5
2 Medium 05-15
20 17 03 85.0 1,5.0
3 Large 15-60
10 10 00 100.0 00
Total 150 72 78 48 52
Source: Survey Data 2011-2012
Table 7.10 and Figure 7.4 describe whole picture of survey area regarding
availability of irrigation.
Table 7.10
Irrigation Facility to Small, Middle and Large Growers in Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki Districts, Sindh Provence of Pakistan During Survey Period 2011-2012
S.N Name of District
Num
ber
of S
mall
Gro
wers
Irrig
ation
facili
ty to G
row
ers
Deficie
ncy Irr
igation f
acili
ty
to G
row
ers
Perc
en
t of
Irri
gation f
acili
ty
Perc
en
t of D
eficie
ncy
Num
ber
of M
ediu
m G
row
ers
Irrig
ation
Facili
ty to
Mid
dle
Gro
we
rs
Deficie
ncy o
f Ir
rigatio
n
facili
ty
Perc
en
t of
Irri
gation f
Deficie
ncy o
f Ir
rigatio
n
Facili
ty
Num
ber
of L
arg
e G
row
ers
Irrig
ation
facili
ty to L
arg
e
Gro
we
rs
Deficie
ncy o
f Ir
rigatio
n
facili
ty
Perc
en
t of
Irri
gation F
acili
ty
Perc
en
t of D
eficie
ncy
Irrig
ation
facili
ty
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 Khairpur 120 40 80 33 67 20 15 05 75 25 10 08 02 80 20
2 Sukkur 120 42 78 35 65 20 18 02 90 10 10 09 01 90 10
3 Ghotki 120 45 75 37.5 62.5 20 17 03 85 15 10 10 00 100 00
TOTAL 360 127 233 35 65 60 50 10 83 17 30 27 03 90 10
Source: Survey Data 2011-2012
Figure 7.4 Irrigation Facility to Small, Middle and Large Growers in Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki Districts, Sindh Provence of Pakistan During Survey Period 2011-2012
164
The total number of small growers was 360 in three districts. Out of which 127
got irrigation facility which stood 35% and 65% faced irrigation deficiency. The
total number of middle growers was 60 and they were provided 83% irrigation
facility. This group faced 17% of deficiency. The large growers 30 were
interviewed for this facility. 90% were getting facility and 10% faced
deficiency.
Capital
In agriculture sector capital also plays an important role. It is required by all
the growers to purchase input for ploughing their farms. It is pointed out from
the study area that group A is related to small growers and average size of
their farm in Khairpur district is 5.2 acres, in Sukkur district is 5.3 acres and in
Ghotki district 5.13 acres. Group B is concerned with the middle growers in
three districts of study area. The average farm size is 14 acres in Khairpur
district, 14.8 acres in Sukkur district and 16.6 acres in Ghotki district. The
group C indicates large growers in three districts of study area. The average
165
farm size was 75 acres in district Khairpur district. 78.5 acres in Sukkur
district and 72 acres in Ghotki district as mentioned in table 7.1 and 7.3
The credit facility is provided to growers by formal and informal institutes in
the country. Formal institutes cover Agriculture Development Bank of
Pakistan, National Bank of Pakistan and also private scheduled banks. These
banks are allowed by the central bank (State Bank of Pakistan) to provide
loan facilities to growers for increasing output of agriculture sector as food
grains are required for the survival of the people and cash crops such as
sugarcane, cotton and others as raw material for industrial sector. The formal
institutes are setup in urban areas. But large and middle growers can get
easily loan facility from these institutes. The small growers get a little loan
facility from the formal institutes. This information is given in table 7.11 and
Figure 7.5.
166
Table 7.11 Facility to Loan Disbursement by Credit Institutions Among Different Growers
in Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki Districts, of Survey Farms During 2011-2012 Sindh Province Pakistan
S .No Name of
District
Num
ber
of S
mall
Gro
wers
Loan
Receiv
ed b
y s
mall
gro
wers
Loan
not
Receiv
ed b
y
gro
wers
Perc
en
t of
receiv
ed
loa
n
facili
ty
Perc
en
t of D
eficie
ncy lo
an
facili
ty
Num
ber
of M
iddle
Gro
wers
Loan
Receiv
ed b
y
gro
wers
Loan
not
Receiv
ed b
y
gro
wers
Perc
en
t of
receiv
ed
loa
n
facili
ty
Deficie
ncy o
f lo
an
facili
ty
Num
ber
of L
arg
e G
row
ers
Loan
Receiv
ed b
y la
rge
gro
wers
Loan
not
Receiv
ed b
y
gro
wers
Perc
en
t of
receiv
ed
loa
n
facili
ty
Deficie
ncy o
f lo
an
facili
ty
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 Khairpur 120 32 88 27 73 20 15 05 75 25 10 09 01 90 10
2 Sukkur 120 37 83 31 69 20 18 02 90 120 10 10 00 100 00
3 Ghotki 120 35 85 29 71 20 17 03 85 15 10 08 02 80 20
TOTAL 360 104 256 29 71 60 50 10 83 17 30 27 03 90 10
Source: Survey Data 2011-2012
Figure 7.5
Facility to Loan Disbursement by Credit Institutions Among Different Growers in Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki Districts, of Survey Farms During 2011-2012
Sindh Province Pakistan
The table 7.11 indicates that 360 small growers applied for loan to formal
institutes from three district of study area but 104 got this facility which stood
167
29% of total small growers. The remaining 71% did not avail facility. Similarly
out of 60 middle growers 50 received loan facility which stood 83% and 17%
did not get loan. 27 large growers got loan facility out of 30 that resulted 90%
of total large growers 10% arranged from business sector. The small growers
mostly get loan facility at the rate of 10% interest from the local business men
to purchase input for their farms. Some of them sell their products in advance
at low rate before harvesting. The middle and large growers had an
opportunity to get input loan facility from the owners of ginning and rice
factories. From the above discussion, it is observed that cultivable land is left
un cultivated due to lack of capital.
7.3.4 Analysis of Uncultivated Land of Survey Area
As discussed in 7.3.5 that capital play a vital role in every business. Due to
lack of capital, all type of growers do not plough their land which resulted low
output of food grains and also other crops. Table 7.12 and Figure 7.6 highlight
the situation.
168
Table 7.12
Cultivated and Uncultivated Area in Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki Districts, of Sample Farms During 2011-2012 Sindh Province of Pakistan
S.
No
Name of District
Nu
mb
er
Gro
we
rs
To
tal H
old
ing
of
Sm
all
Gro
wers
In A
ire
s
Cu
ltiv
ate
d A
rea
in A
cre
s
Un
cu
ltiv
ate
d A
rea in
Acre
s
Pe
rce
nt o
f C
ultiv
ate
d A
rea
Pe
rce
nt o
f U
ncu
ltiv
ate
d A
rea
Nu
mb
er
of M
idd
le o
f G
row
ers
To
tal H
old
ing
In
acr
es
Cu
ltiv
ate
d A
rea
in A
cre
s
Un
cu
ltiv
ate
d A
rea in
Acre
s
Pe
rce
nt o
f C
ultiv
ate
d A
rea
in
Acre
s
Pe
rce
nt o
f U
ncu
ltiv
ate
d A
rea
Nu
mb
er
of L
arg
e G
row
ers
To
tal H
old
ing
in A
cre
s
Cu
ltiv
ate
d A
rea
in A
cre
s
Un
cu
ltiv
ate
d A
rea in
Acre
s
Pe
rce
nt o
f C
ultiv
ate
d A
rea
Pe
rce
nt o
f U
ncu
ltiv
ate
d A
rea
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
1 Khairpur 120 620 380 240 61.3 37.7 20 280 210 70 75 25 10 750 660 90 88 12
2 Sukkur 120 635 370 265 58.27 41.73 20 295 215 80 72.88 27.12 10 785 625 160 79.62 20.38
3 Ghotki 120 615 365 250 59.35 40.65 20 265 195 70 74 26 10 720 605 115 84 16
TOTAL 360 1870 1115 755 60% 40% 60 840 620 220 74% 26% 30 2255 1890 365 84% 16%
Source: Survey Data 2011-2012
Figure 7.6 Cultivated and Uncultivated Area in Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki Districts, of
Sample Farms During 2011-2012 Sindh Province of Pakistan
The above mentioned table illustrates the position of cultivated and
uncultivated land in three districts of survey area. 360 small growers were
169
selected from the survey area and they possessed total holding 1870 acres.
Out of which they cultivated 1115 acres and uncultivated remained 755 acres
which showed 40% of total area. In the same way the middle growers had 840
acres and cultivated 620 acres which resulted 220 acres uncultivated and
showed 26%. The large grower acres possessed 2255 acres and cultivated
1890 acres which indicated 365 uncultivated and highlighted 16%. It is
pointed out from survey area that all growers possessed total, 4965 acres, out
of which they cultivated 3625 acres and 1340 aces could not be brought
under plough that showed 29% uncultivated land.
7.4 Analysis of Output of Food grains of Survey Area during 2011-2012
Table 7.13 and 7.14 describe the output of wheat and rice of district Khairpur.
The small growers had 620 acres of land during winter and summer season.
The output wheat was 13,300 maunds and average per acre stood 35
maunds. The output of rice comprised 11,680 maunds and average per acre
stood 31 maunds. The middle growers cultivated 210 acres out of 280 acres.
They got 7700 maunds of wheat and average per acre resulted 37 maunds.
The large growers brought land under plough 660 acres out of 750 acres. The
total output of wheat got 25080 maunds and average per acre output stood 38
maunds. The production of rice was achieved 22,990 maunds and average
per acre resulted 35 maunds. Over all total output of wheat was achieved
46.080 maunds that indicated 37 maunds per acre yield. Similarly, the total
output of rice stood 41,495 maunds and per acre yield resulted 33.10
maunds.
Table 7.13 Output of Winter Crop of Survey Farms District Khairpur
During Winter Season 2011-12
170
Group Size of Farm in Acres
No of Growers
Total farm In Holding In Acres
Cultivated Land
In Acres
Total Output
Of Wheat in
Maunds
Average output per
acre in Maunds
A Small 0-5
120 620 380 13300 35
B Medium 05-15
20 280 210 7770 37
C Large
15-60 & above
10 750 660 25080 38
Total 150 1650 1250 46150 Average 36.92
Source: Survey Data 2011-12
Table 7.14
Output of Summer Crop of Survey Farms District Khairpur
During Year 2011-12
Group Size of Farm in Acres
No of Growers
Total farm In
Holding In Acres
Cultivated Land
In Acres
Total Output
Of Wheat in
Maunds
Average output per
acre in Maunds
A Small 0-5
120 620 380 11,680 31
B Medium 05-15
20 280 210 6825 33
C Large
15-60 & above
10 750 660 22990 35
Total 150 1650 1250 41495 Average 33.10
Source: Survey Data 2011-12
Table 7.15 and 7.16 describe the output of wheat and rice of district Sukkur.
The small growers cultivated 370 acres out of 635 acres during winter and
summer season. The output of wheat was 13,690 maunds and average per
acre stood 37 maunds. The output of rice comprised 13,320 maunds and
average per acre stood 36 maunds. The middle growers cultivated 215 acres
out of 295 acres. They got 8350 maunds of wheat and average per acre
resulted 37 maunds. The output of rice was got by the middle growers 7,215
maunds which stood 37 maunds per acre. The large growers brought land
171
under plough 626 acres out of 785 acres. The total output of wheat got 25625
maunds and average per acre output stood 41 maunds. The production of rice
was achieved 26,250 maunds and average per acre resulted 41 maunds.
Overall total output of wheat was achieved 47,700 maunds that indicated
39.42 maunds per acres yield. Similarly the total output of rice stood 48,780
and per acre yield resulted 40.312 maunds.
Table 7.15 Output of Winter Crop of Survey Farms District Sukkur
During Year 2011-12
Group Size of Farm in Acres
No of Growers
Total farm In
Holding In Acres
Cultivated Land
In Acres
Total Output
Of Wheat in Maunds
Average output per
acre in Maunds
A Small 0-5
120 635 370 13,690 37
B Medium 05-15
20 295 215 8385 39
C Large
15-60 & above
10 785 625 25625 41
Total 150 1715 1210 47700 Average 36.42
Source: Survey Data 2011-12
172
Table 7.16 Output of Survey Farms District Sukkur
During Summer Season 2011-12
Group Size of Farm in Acres
No of Growers
Total farm In
Holding In Acres
Cultivated Land
In Acres
Total Output
Of Wheat in
Maunds
Average output per
acre in Maunds
A Small 0-5
120 635 370 13320 36
B Medium 05-15
20 295 215 8170 38
C Large
15-60 & above
10 785 625 26250 42
Total 150 1715 1210 48,780 Average 40.31
Source: Survey Data 2011-1
Table 7.17 and 7.18 describe the output of wheat and rice of district Ghotki.
The small growers cultivated 365 acres out of 615 acres during winter and
summer season. The output wheat was 12,410 maunds and average per acre
stood 34 maunds. The output of rice comprised 12,775 maunds and average
per acre stood 35 maunds. The middle growers cultivated 195 acres out of
265 acres. They got 7215 maunds of wheat and average per acre resulted 37
maunds. The output of rice was got by the middle growers 7,215 maunds
which stood 37 maunds average per acre. The large growers brought land
under plough 605 acres out of 720 acres. The total output of wheat got 24,200
maunds and average per acre output stood 40 maunds. The production of rice
was achieved 24,200 maunds and average per acre resulted 40 maunds.
Overall total output of wheat was achieved 43,825 maunds that indicated
about 38 maunds per acre yield. Similarly the total output of rice stood 44,190
and per acre yield resulted about 38 maunds.
173
Table 7.17 Output of Winter Crop of Survey Farms District Ghotki
During 2011-12
Group Size of Farm in Acres
No of Growers
Total farm
In Holding In Acres
Cultivated Land
In Acres
Total Output
Of Wheat in
Maunds
Average output per
acre in Maunds
A Small 0-15
120 615 365 12,410 34
B Medium 05-15
20 265 195 7215 37
C
Large 15-60 &
and above
10 720 605 24200 40
Total 150 1600 1165 43825
Average 37.62
Source: Survey Data 2011-12
Table 7.18
Output of Summer Crop of Survey Farms District Ghotki
During 2011-12
Group Size of Farm in Acres
No of Growers
Total farm In Holding In Acres
Cultivated Land
In Acres
Total Output
Of Rice in Maunds
Average output per
acre in Maunds
A Small 0-15
120 615 365 12775 35
B Medium 05-15
20 265 195 7215 37
C Large
15-60 & above
10 720 605 24200
40
Total 150 1600 1165 44190
Average 37.93
Source: Survey Data 2011-12
7.5 Analysis of Income and Expenditure of Survey Area During 2011-2012
It describes the income and expenditure of growers in three districts viz.
Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki. Their income is calculated from the sale of
putout by multiplying market price. It indicates the economic conditions of
growers.
Table 7.19 and 7.20 describe the income and expenditure of district Khairpur
during winter and summer season.
174
Table 7.19
Income of Growers in District Khairpur During Winter Crop Season 2011-2012
Group Size of Farm in Acres
No of Growers
Total output
of wheat
In Maunds
Gross Income In
Rs:
Expenses Purchasing
Input In Rs:
Net Income in
Rs:
Average Income
per Grower In Rs:
A Small 0-15
120 11300 119,70000 34,20,000 85,50000 71250
B Medium 05-15
20 7770 71,48400 18,48000 53,00400 2,65020
C Large
15-60 & above
10 25,080 2,31,99000 56,10000
175,89000 17,58900
Total 150
Source: Survey Data 2011-12
Table 7.20 Income of Growers in District Khairpur
During Summer Crop Season 2011-2012
Group Size of Farm in Acres
No of Grower
s
Total output of Rice In Maunds
Gross Income In
Rs:
Expenses on
Purchasing Input In Rs:
Net Income in
Rs:
Average Income each
Grower In Rs:
A Small 0-15
120 11,680 94,60800 2925475 65,35325 54461
B Medium 05-15
20 6825 5562375 1561950 4000425 2,00021
C Large
15-60 & above
10 22,990 1,86,05800 44,50800
1,41,5500 14,15500
Total 150
Source: Survey Data 2011-12
The total gross income of 120 small growers was Rs, 1,19,70,000 during
winter season. The net income was received Rs, 85,5000 after deducting
expenses Rs, 34,20,000 from the gross income. The average income of each
small grower stood Rs, 71,250.
Similarly, the gross income of middle growers became Rs. 714,8400 and the
net income was received Rs,. 5,300,400 after deducting expenses
175
Rs. 1,848,000. The average income of each middle grower stood 265,020
during winter season.
The small growers received gross income amounting to Rs, 9,460,800 from
the output of summer season. They received net income Rs, 6,535,325 after
deducting expenses Rs, 2,925,475. The average income of each small
grower became Rs, 54,461.
The middle growers earned gross income Rs, 5,562,375 from the output.
They got net income Rs, 4,000,425 after deducting expenses Rs. 1,561,950
on purchasing input for farms. The average net income of each middle grower
stood Rs, 200,021.
The large growers earned gross income Rs. 18,605,800 from their output.
They got net income Rs. 14,150,800 after deducting of Rs, 44,50800 on the
purchase of input for farms. The average income of each large grower
became Rs, 1,415,500.
Table 7.21 and 7.22 indicate the expenditure and income of district Sukkur
during winter and summer season.
176
Table 7.21 Income of Growers in District Sukkur
During Winter Crop Season 2011-2012
Group Size of Farm in Acres
No of Growers
Total output of wheat In Maunds
Gross Income In
Rs:
Expenses Purchasing
Input In Rs:
Net Income in
Rs:
Average Income Each
Grower In Rs:
A Small 0-15
120 13690 1,25,94800 34,58000 9136800 76140
B Medium 05-15
20 8385 7630350 193500 5695350 284776
C
Large 15-60 &
and above
10 25,625 2,43,46875 55,00000 18846875 1884688
Total 150
Source: Survey Data 2011-12
Table 7.22
Income of Growers in District Sukkur
During Summer Crop Season 2011-2012
Group Size of Farm in Acres
No of Growers
Total output of Rice In Maunds
Gross Income In
Rs:
Expenses on
Purchasing Input In
Rs:
Net Income in
Rs:
Average Income Each
Grower In Rs:
A Small 0-15
120 13,320 10855800 3015500 7840300 65336
B Medium 05-15
20 8,170 6699400 1747950 4951450 247573
C
Large 15-60 &
and above
10 26,250 2165250 5087500 16568750 1656875
Total 150
Source: Survey Data 2011-12
The total output of small growers was sold in the market at Rs. 1,25,74,800
during winter season and expenses on input Rs. 34,58,0000 were deducted
from the gross income, The remaining net income of 120 small growers was
achieved Rs. 9,136,800. In this way, the average net income of each small
grower was Rs. 76,140 during winter season.
Similarly the gross income of middle growers became Rs. 7,630,350 and
expenses of input were Rs. 1,935,000. After deducting expenses the net
income of all middle growers was achieved Rs. 56,95,335. The total gross
177
income of large growers was Rs. 2,43,46,875 and net income became Rs.
1,88,46,875 after deducting expenses Rs. 55,00,000. Thus an average net
income was received Rs. 18,84,688 by each large grower.
The output of summer season brought gross income of small growers Rs.
1,08,55800. The net income Rs. 78,10300 was received by deducting
expenses Rs. 30,15,500. In this way the net income of each grower was
received Rs. 65,336.
The output of middle growers earned gross income Rs. 66,49,400 and after
deducting expenses Rs. 17,47950, they got net income Rs, 49,51450. Each
middle grower got average net income Rs. 247,573. The larger growers
achieved gross amount Rs. 2,16,56250 and received net income Rs.
1,65,68,250 after deducting expenses Rs. 50,87,500. The average net income
of each large grower became Rs. 16,56,875.
Table 7.23 and 7.24 indicates the expenditure and income of district Ghotki
during winter and summer season.
Table 7.23 Income of Growers in District Ghotki
During Winter Crop Season 2011-2012
Group Size of Farm in Acres
No of Growers
Total output of wheat In Maunds
Gross Income In
Rs:
Expenses Purchasing
Input In Rs:
Net Income in
Rs:
Average Income Each In
Rs:
A Small 0-05
120 12410 1,12,93100 32,50100 80,43000 67025
B Medium 05-15
20 7215 66,37800 17,55,000 48,82800 244140
C
Large 15-60 &
and above
10 24,200 2,23,85000 53,24000 17061000 17,06,100
Total 150
Source: Survey Data 2011-12
Table 7.24
Income of Growers in District Ghotki
During Summer Crop Season 2011-2012
178
Group Size of Farm in Acres
No of Growers
Total output of Rice In Maunds
Gross Income In
Rs:
Expenses on
Purchasing Input In
Rs:
Net Income in
Rs:
Average Income Each
Grower In Rs:
A Small 0-05
120 12,775 10,47,5500 33,58000 7117500 59313
B Medium 05-15
20 7215 5988450 1774500 4213950 210,698
C
Large 15-60 and
above
10 24,200 20328000 4870250 15457750 1545775
Total 150
Source: Survey Data 2011-12
The total out of small growers was sold in the market at Rs. 11,293,100 during
winter season and Rs. 3,250,100 were deducted from the income, as
expenses on input. The remaining net income of 120 small growers were
achieved Rs. 8,043,000. In this way, the average net income of each small
grower was Rs. 6,7025 during winter season.
Similarly the gross income of middle growers became Rs. 66,37,800 and
expenses of input were Rs. 1,755,000. After deducting expenses the net
income of all middle growers achieved Rs. 4,882,800. The average income of
each grower was Rs. 244,140. The total gross income of large growers was
Rs. 22,385,000. After deducting expenses Rs. 5,324,000 net income became
Rs, 17,061,000. Thus an average net income was got Rs. 1,706,100 by each
large grower.
The output of summer season brought gross income of small growers Rs.
10,475,500.
They got net income Rs, 7,117,500 after deducting expenses Rs, 3,358,000
on the purchase of input. The net income of each small grower stood
Rs, 59,313. The gross income of middle growers was Rs, 5,988,450. They
spent Rs, 1,774,500 on the purchase of input for their farms. After deducting
179
input expenditure, they got net income Rs, 4,213,950. Thus the net income of
each middle grower became Rs, 210,698 during summer season.
The large growers got gross income Rs, 20,328,000 and after deducting
expenses Rs, 4,870,250 on input, they received net income Rs 15,457,750. In
this way the net income of each large grower was Rs, 15.45775.
7.6 Analysis of Yearly and Monthly Average Income of Growers of Survey Area During 2011-2012
Table 7.25 and Figure 7.7 describe average annual and monthly income of all
growers in district Khairpur.
Table 7.25
Yearly and Monthly Income of Each Grower in District Khairpur During 2011-12
Group Size of Farm in Acres
No of Growers
Average income of each grower during winter in Rs
Average income of each grower during summer in Rs
Total Yearly
income in Rs.
Monthly income of
each grower in Rs
A Small 0-05
120 71,250 54461 1,25711 10476
B Medium 05-15
20 2,65,020 2,00021 4,65041 38,753
C Large
15-60 & above
10 17,58,900 14,5500 31,74400 3,17440
Total 150
Source: Survey Data 2011-12
180
Figure 7.7
Yearly and Monthly Income of Each Grower in District Khairpur During 2011-12
The average yearly income of both seasons winter and summer was total
Rs. 1,25,711 and average monthly income of each small grower stood
Rs. 10,476/-.
The average yearly income of each middle grower comprised Rs. 4.65,041/-
and monthly average income was Rs, 38,753.
Similarly the average yearly income of each large grower was Rs. 31,74,400
and obtained monthly average income Rs. 3,17,440.
Table 7.26 and Figure 7.8 describe average annual and monthly income of all
growers in district Sukkur.
Table 7.26 Yearly and Monthly Income of Each Grower in District Sukkur
181
During 2011-12
Group Size of Farm in Acres
No of Growers
Average income of
each grower during winter
in Rs
Average income of
each grower during summer
in Rs
Total Yearly
income in Rs.
Monthly income of
each grower in Rs
A Small 0-05
120 76,140 65,336 1,41,476 11,790
B Medium 05-15
20 2,84,776 247,573 5,32,349 44,362
C Large
15-60 & above
10 18,84,688 16,56,875 35,41,563 2,95,130
Total 150
Source: Survey Data 2011-12
Figure 7.8
Yearly and Monthly Income of Each Grower in District Sukkur During 2011-12
182
The average yearly income of both seasons winter and summer was total
Rs. 1,41,476 and average monthly income of each small grower stood
Rs. 11,790/-.
The average yearly income of each middle grower comprised Rs. 5,32,349/-
and average monthly income stood Rs. 44,362/-
Similarly, the average yearly income of each large grower was Rs. 35,41,563
and obtained monthly average income Rs. 2,95,130/-.
Table 7.27 and Figure 7.9 describe average annual and monthly income of all
growers in district Ghotki.
Table 7.27 Yearly and Monthly Income of Each Grower in District Ghotki
During 2011-12
Group Size of Farm in Acres
No of Growers
Average income of each grower during winter in Rs
Average income of each grower during summer in Rs
Total Yearly
income in Rs.
Monthly income of
each grower in Rs
A Small 0-05
120 45,426 59,313 1,04,739 8,728
B Medium 05-15
020 2,44,140 2,10,698 4,54,838 37,903
C Large
15-60 & above
010 17,06,100 15,45,775 32,51,875 2,70,990
Total 150
Source: Survey Data 2011-12
183
Figure 7.9
Yearly and Monthly Income of Each Grower in District Ghotki During 2011-12
The average yearly income of both seasons winter and summer was total
Rs. 104,739 and average monthly income of each small grower stood Rs.
8,728/-.
The average yearly income of each middle grower comprised Rs. 4,54,838/-
and average monthly income stood Rs. 37,903/-. Similarly, the average yearly
income of each large grower was Rs. 32,51,875 and obtained monthly
average income Rs. 2,70,990/-.
It is observed from the above discussion that large growers were in better
position as compared to middle and small growers.
7.7 Analysis of Model
184
The objective of the present study is to determine the factors in achieving food
security in Pakistan. In this regard, food grains productivity is examined with
the relationship of land resources and input used by the growers. The
hypotheses are developed that the growers do not produce food grains with
the increasing growth rate of population. The efficiency of production depends
on the investment of capital as well as irrigation facility provided to growers.
This research is conducted through primary data collected from three districts
viz. Khairpur Mir’s, Sukkur and Gohtki, Sindh Province of Pakistan.
The model describes that land resources play an important role in the rural
economy. The output of agriculture sector depends upon modern techniques
of cultivation. It is explained in the light of hypotheses developed for research
objectives. In this regard, input as high yielding varieties of seed, fertilizers,
pesticide, irrigation and tractors are required. Therefore, more involvement of
the capital is essential. As the growers of developing and under developed
countries face financial difficulties and formal institutions do not provide credit
to all growers. The small growers get loan facility from business sector at high
rate of interest and they are not in position to bring all land under cultivation.
It is pointed out from the model that growers did not utilize fully land resources
with the result food security could not be achieved. The main factors were
observed lacking of capital and irrigation facilities. Both variables are very
essential for increasing the output of food grains in the study area. In three
districts of study area small growers possessed total cultivable land 1870
acres, out of which they cultivated 1115 acres which stood 60%. Similarly, the
middle growers had 840 acres and cultivated 620 acres that stood 74%. The
large growers possessed 2285 acres, out of which they cultivated 1890 acres
that resulted 84% and 16% cultivable land could not be irrigated. Overall in all
three districts growers had 4985 cultivable land and they cultivated 3625
185
acres, which stood 73% and 27% remained uncultivated. It proves that there
is need of extension of capital and irrigation facilities towards growers. If these
facilities are provided by the concerned institutions the output of food grains
can be increased on the one hand and on the other hand foreign exchange
will be saved. Further, the economic conditions of the growers will be
improved.
RESEARCH MODEL
7.8 Findings Food is basic need for the people of Pakistan. It is supplied from the
agriculture sector. The population of the country has been increasing
continuously since its inception 1947. According to Census report 1951,
population of Pakistan was 36 million and has increased to 180 million. The
Food Security
Availability of sufficient
food to each household
Output
Production
Income of growers
External Factors
Exports
Imports
Foreign Exchange
Economic Factors
Local economic conditions
Lack of formal credit facilities
Higher cost of informal
source of capital
Human Factors
Population growth
Illiteracy
Consumption
Infrastructural Factors
Proper Irrigation
Facilities
Input Factors
Use of Fertilizers
Availability of Seeds
Tractors
Land Resources
Cultivated land
Un-cultivated land
FP = CL, S, F, T, I, P, K,L
FP = Farm Productivity; CL = Cultivable Land; S = Seed; F = Fertilizer; T = Tractor; I = Irrigation; P = Pesticide; K = Capital,L=Labour
186
increasing population has created more demand for food. The domestic
production does not meet the requirements of the country. Therefore, it is the
responsibility of the government to arrange food by importing from abroad.
This requires foreign exchange every year.
The present research examines the factors of food shortage in the country. In
this regard, results are given in two sections. The first section describes
results of theoretical aspect and the second section describes results of
survey conducted through interviews in three districts viz. Khairpur, Sukkur
and Ghotki, Sindh province of Pakistan.
7.8.1 Theoretical Findings
(a) Land Resources of Pakistan
(i) Pakistan’s agriculture sector depends on land and water
resources. Entire cultivable land is not being cultivated by
the growers. More than million 8 hectares are not cultivated
due to financial and irrigation problems faced by the
growers.
(ii) The agriculture sector was neglected during 1950’s and
industrial sector was given more priority. The growth rate of
population was 2.6% as compared to growth rate of food
grains 1.3 percent. The agriculture sector remained
stagnant and could not meet the requirements of the
country. Therefore, government imported wheat million
seven tons during 1950’s and spent foreign exchange on
this item.
187
(iii) During 1964 family planning program was launched to
control birth rate. It could not be proved successful
because from religious point of view.
(iv) In 1966, the Green Revolution was introduced in the
agriculture sector to increase the output of food grains and
also other crops. In this regard, government extended input
facilities to growers for enhancing output of agriculture
sector. The expenditure of public sector rose from Rs. 1.38
billion to Rs. 36.1 billion and Rs. 4.51 billion to Rs. 425.5
billion on irrigation development during the period 1965/66
to 2011/12.
(v) Cultivable land under food crops rose from million 8.678
hectares to million 13.052 hectares during the period
1965/66 to 2011/12.
(vi) Progress of input from 1965/66 to 2011/12.
(a) Water availability increased from 63.87 (MAF) to
135.86 (MAF).
(b) Distribution of improved seed rose from thousand 14
tons to 346.38 (000) tons on different crops of the
agriculture sector. Out of which 339.71 (000) tons were
used in production of food grains during 2011/12.
(c) Consumption of fertilizer went up from 111.83 (000 N.
Tons) to 3861 (000 N. tons)
(d) The number of tractors enhanced from 2,241 to
51,796 with the extension of new technology.
188
(e) Tube wells were used in those areas where growers
were facing lacking of irrigation facility. Since the
introduction of green revolution the number of tube
wells started to increase to 1,110,634 in the year
2011/12.
(f) Credit facility was extended to growers million
Rs. 196,227 during 2011/12.
(vii) Relationship between population and food requirements.
(a) Since the introduction of new technology in the
agriculture sector, the output of food grains
increased from million 6.5 tons to million 34.478
tons in 2011/12. It indicated that the output of food
grains rose more than five times during the period
1965/66 to 2011/12.
(b) The population of the country has been increasing
continuously and has surpassed 180 million. The
increasing output of food grains could not meet the
requirements of the country. Therefore, Pakistan has
been importing wheat from abroad to meet the
requirements of the people and spends huge foreign
exchange
7.8.2 Findings of Survey Data
The primary data was collected from three districts viz. Khairpur, Sukkur and
Ghotki, Sindh province of Pakistan. From each district 150 respondents were
selected viz. small, medium and large. In this way, 450 growers were
189
interviewed who had their own land. From each district 120 small growers, 20
middle growers and 10 large growers were interviewed. In all districts 360
small farmers, 60 middle growers and 30 large growers were asked
information regarding output of their farms.
(i) In Khairpur district total survey farm holding was 1650 acres.
Out of which small growers possessed 620 acres that
comprised 38%, middle growers 280 acres that resulted 17%
and large growers 750 acres that stood 45% of total holdings.
The average size of small farm stood 5.2 acres, middle farm 14
acres and large farm 75 acres. The small growers cultivated
380 acres that stood 61.3% and 38.7% remained uncultivated.
The middle growers brought land under cultivation 210 acres
which comprised 75% and 25% land could not be cultivated.
The large growers cultivated 660 acres and they did not
irrigated 10% of their cultivable.
The average output of each small grower of wheat per acre
stood 35 maunds, rice 31 maunds middle grower 37 maunds,
rice 33 maunds and large grower wheat 38 maunds and rice 35
maunds.
(ii) In district Sukkur respondents had 1715 acres out of which
small growers possessed 635 acres that comprised, 37%
middle growers 295 acres resulted 17% and large growers 785
acres that became 46% of the cultivable land. The small
growers cultivated 59.35%, middle growers 74% and large
growers 84% of their farms. The average output per acre of
each small grower of wheat 37 maunds, rice 36 maunds,
190
middle grower wheat 39 maunds, rice 38 maunds and large
grower wheat 41 maunds, rice 42 maunds.
(iii) In district Ghotki all survey area growers possessed 1600
acres. Out of which 615 acres had to small growers, 265 acres
to middle growers and large growers 720 acres. The small
growers brought land under cultivation 59.35%, middle
growers 74% and large growers 84% of their cultivable land.
The average output per acre of each small grower of wheat
stood 34 maunds, rice 35 maunds, middle grower wheat 37
maunds, rice 37 maunds and large grower wheat 40 maunds,
rice 40 maunds.
(iv) The yearly income of each small grower in district Khairpur
comprised Rs. 125,711 average monthly income stood Rs.
10,474 middle growers income Rs. 465,041 monthly income Rs.
38,753 and large grower’s income Rs. 3,174,400 monthly
income resulted Rs. 317,440. The research indicates that large
growers are in better position as compared to small and middle
growers.
(v) The yearly income of each small grower in district Sukkur was
Rs. 141,476 and average monthly income stood Rs. 11,790. The
middle grower’s yearly income comprised Rs. 532349 and
monthly income achieved Rs. 44,362. Larger grower’s income
became Rs. 3,541,563 and monthly income stood Rs.
295,130.
191
(vi) The yearly income of each small grower in district Ghotki was
Rs. 104739 and monthly income stood Rs. 8,728, middle
grower’s yearly income Rs. 454,838, monthly income Rs.
37,903 and large grower’s yearly income Rs. 3,251,875 and
monthly income Rs. 270,990.
(vii) It is pointed out from the study that growers did not bring the
entire land under cultivation due to lacking of capital and
irrigation facilities. They have two sources of capital, first own
capital and second credit from institutional and non-
institutional sources. It is pointed out from the study that small
growers got 29%, middle growers 83% and large growers 90%
credit facility from normal intuitions. The small growers
arranged credit facility from the local business sector at high
rate of interest and purchased input for their farms.
(viii) Water resources are essential for ploughing the land. But it
was observed from the study area that the entire land could
not be brought under cultivation due to lacking of irrigation
facility. The small growers got 35%, middle growers 83% and
large growers 90% irrigation facility. The large and middle
growers could arrange this facility through tube wells. But
majority 65% growers were unable to manage alternate source
of irrigation.
(ix) The research is related to security of food with land resources.
It is observed from the study area that 450 respondents
possessed total farms holding 4965 acres. They cultivated
192
3625 acres and 1340 acres could not bring under plough that
showed 29% of total cultivable land of study area. In Pakistan
more than 8 million hectares of cultivable land lying
uncultivated. If 50% of that is cultivated, it can bring food
security, save expenditure of foreign exchange on import and
also improve the rural economy of the country.
193
CHAPTER 08 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
8.1 Conclusions
The purpose of this research was to find out relationship between land
resources and food security. In this regard, theoretical aspect of research was
analyzed and pointed out that various measures were adopted at macro level
such as family planning program and introduction of new technology in
agriculture sector in 1966 to control growth rate of population and enhance
output of food grains to meet the requirements of the country. The increasing
output of food grains could not fulfill the demand and government started to
import wheat from abroad. Therefore, this research was conducted in three
districts viz. Khairpur, Sukkur and Ghotki of Sindh Provinces, Pakistan
keeping in view utilization of land resources related to output of food grains.
The total respondents 450 were chosen viz. 360 small, 60 middle and 30
large growers. From each district 150 growers were selected and all
possessed their own land.
The main conclusions of the research are drawn as under:
District Khairpur
The total area of farms holding was 1650 acres. The small growers
possessed 620 acres that comprised 38% middle growers 280
acres 17% and large growers 750 acres that stood 45%. The
average size of small farm 5.2 acres, middle farm 14 acres and
large farm 75 acres. The small growers cultivated 380 acres,
middle 210 acres and large growers 660 acres.
The average output of wheat per acre each small grower stood 35
maunds, rice 33 maunds, middle grower 37 maunds of wheat, rice
194
33 maunds, and large grower wheat 38 maunds and rice 35
maunds. The average annual income of each small grower stood
Rs. 125,711; monthly income Rs. 10,476; middle grower’s income
Rs. 465,041; monthly income Rs. 38,753; and large grower’s
income Rs. 3,174,400; monthly income was Rs. 317,440.
District Sukkur
The respondents had 1,715 acres, out of which small growers
comprised 635 acres, which stood 37%, middle growers 295 acres
that resulted 17% and large growers 785 acres that became 46%.
The average size of farm of small growers was 5.3 acres, middle
farm 14.8 acres and large farm 78.5 acres. Below subsistence
growers cultivated 380 acres, middle growers 210 acres and large
growers 660 acres. The average output per acre wheat of each
small grower stood 37 maunds, rice 36 maunds, middle grower
wheat 39 maunds, rice 38 maunds and large grower wheat 41
maunds, rice 42 maunds. The average yearly income of small
grower comprised Rs. 141,476 and monthly income became Rs.
11,790. The middle grower received average annual income Rs.
532,349 and monthly income stood Rs. 44,362. Similarly, the
average yearly income of the large grower was Rs. 3,441,563 and
obtained monthly income Rs. 295,362.
District Ghotki
In this district all survey growers possessed 1600 acres. The
small growers had 615 acres, middle growers 265 acres and large
195
growers 720 acres. The small growers cultivated 370 acres,
middle growers 215 acres and large growers 625 acres. The
average output per acre of small grower of wheat stood 34
maunds rice 35 maunds, middle grower’s wheat 37 maunds, rice
37 maunds and large grower’s wheat 40 maunds and rice 40
maunds. The average yearly income of small grower stood Rs.
104,739 and monthly income Rs. 8,728. The middle grower’s
yearly income was Rs. 454,838 and monthly income comprised
Rs. 37,903. The yearly income of large grower became Rs.
3,251,875 and monthly income Rs. 3,251,875 and monthly income
obtained Rs. 270,990. The study is related to food security with
land resources of the country. The total cultivated area of survey
farms stood 4963 acres of three districts. The growers cultivated
3625 acres and 1340 acres could not be cultivated that showed
29% of total cultivable land of the survey area. The main reasons
were described by them lacking of irrigation and capital. In
Pakistan more than million 8 hectares cultivable land is lying
uncultivated. If 50% of that is cultivated, it can bring food security,
save foreign exchange and also uplift rural economy.
8.2 Recommendations
The national economy of the country is dependent on agriculture sector. Its
contribution was 53% to national economy at the time of independence of
country that reduced to 21% because of development of industrial sector.
Pakistan has abundant land and water resources however, till date has not
been able to meet the food requirements from the agriculture sector. New
technology was introduced in 1966 with the man purpose to become self-
sufficient in food but it has not yet been achieved.
196
To find out the problem study was conducted in three districts Khairpur,
Sukkur and Ghotki, Sindh Province of Pakistan.
The research revealed that growers could not bring their entire land under
cultivation due to lacking of irrigation and capital. Though other input better
seed, fertilizer, threshers, tractors are important for the agriculture sector, but
irrigation and capital both play vital role in this sector. Any latest technology in
this sector can bring good result with the availability of irrigation and capital.
As this research is related to bring food security for the people of the country
by utilizing land resources effectively. In this regard, two main factors
mentioned above are pointed out for insecurity of food. The following
recommendations are suggested for maintaining food requirements in relation
to population growth.
8.2.1 Proper Management of Water Resources
Water resources are managed by the Federal and Provincial governments.
There are three major water storage reservoirs, 19 barrages and head works
12 link canals and 43 canal commands in the country. The length of Indus
Basin is about 40,000 miles and is the greatest irrigation system in the world
(Jan, Mukarran, 2011).
There are 20 percent losses of water during inflows to the canals and
distributaries:
(a) These losses should be saved by applying appropriate system of
management.
(b) About lac 10 acres are lying barren in desert area of Sindh and
Cholistan. During rainy seasons, this water should be stored by,
constructing small reservoirs in these areas. Therefore, these
197
reservoirs are essential for the local people in improving the
socioeconomic conditions.
8.2.2 Timely Supply of Water to Growers
The growers should be provided water timely during summer and winter
season. This was general grievance mostly from growers of subsistence
holding that they did not get this facility in time by irrigation department.
Therefore, their output of farms always deteriorates and they could not even
return loans to business sector. They have been always under rebutting.
It is suggested that the management of irrigation department be improved. It
would increase the output of growers and simultaneously enhance the
revenue of the government.
8.2.3 Political Involvement should be avoided.
It is observed that big landlords of our country are influenced and some of
them are members of National Assembly and Provincial Assembly. They
develop political pressure on irrigation department and get undue advantage
for irrigation facilities.
This practice should be stopped by applying strict laws and no one be
excused. By prohibiting political pressure in irrigation, the output of all growers
can be developed.
8.2.4 Illegal Supply of Irrigation Facility be Checked
While conducting interviews from the respondents it was informed that
irrigation department provides extra irrigation facilities to those who pay them
bribe. This is common practice in our country and million rupees are being
earned by this department.
198
This practice should be stopped by imposing strict resolutions against
involved persons. In this way irrigation facilities can be extended to the needy
growers.
8.2.5 Imperfect Distribution of Water
Management of water distribution is irregular. It flows to main lands,
distributaries, water courses from there flows to farms. The irrigation
department does not check proper distribution of water, which creates
inefficiency supply towards farms. This affects the output of the growers. This
happens due to negligence of irrigation officials. Therefore, proper distribution
of water should be managed to facilitate all growers in enhancing the yield of
farms.
8.3 Credit System be improved
It is pointed out from the survey area that small growers received 29% loan,
middle growers 83% and large growers 90% facilities. It indicated that 71%
small growers did not get loan facility from the institutional sources and they
managed from the non-institutional sources at high rate of interest or sale
produce at low rate before harvesting the crop. This indulges these growers in
trouble.
8.3.1 Establishment of Credit Centre at Tehsil Level
It is fact that 80% small farmers are involved in agriculture sector. They do not
get loan facility from the organizational institutes as these are out of their
reach. It is suggested that main institute be set up at tehsil level and main
sub-branches be opened in rural areas during ploughing season to facilitate
growers.
8.3.2 Loaning Procedure should be Made Easy
199
Majority growers are illiterate; some have primary and secondary education.
Therefore, procedure of credit system should be simplified and they would get
loan easily during ploughing season for purchasing input that can enhance
output of their farms.
8.3.3 Proper Management of Micro Credit System
The Agricultural Development Bank of Pakistan has introduced Micro Credit
System in agriculture sector. But a few growers are benefitted from this
system and majority is ignored. It is reported in the Daily Dawn; 6th April 2015
that overall share of the agriculture in the total loan is only 6.5 percent. As the
economy of the country is dependent on this sector, it is suggested loan
facility be extended in such a way that majority of growers be benefitted that
would improve the productivity of food crops as well as cash crops.
8.3.4 Political Involvement be removed
It is observed that mostly influence growers are getting credit facility from the
organizational institutes through political pressure. Besides, big landlords
involved in politics, they are mostly benefitted. It is suggested that this
practice should not be allowed during the loan disbursement season. If it is
stopped, improvement in the productivity can be made.
8.3.5 Conducting Regular Agriculture Credit Survey
It is fact that price of input does not remain constant. It varies from time to
time throughout the world. The growers be provided loan facility according to
the current price of input prevailing in the market.
It is suggested that regular credit survey should be conducted in order to
ascertain and identify the main problems and constraints in the field of
agriculture credit. This procedure can remove the difficulties of growers and
will not depend further on informal institutions.
8.4 Further Areas of the Study
200
The development of agriculture is considered to enhance food grains for
meeting the requirements of the people and also cash crops for the growth of
industrial sector. In this regard, there are other factors which can also
increase the output of this sector. The following areas be considered for
further research.
(i) Introduce low water consuming varieties.
(ii) Post-harvest research on food grains.
(iii)Post-harvest losses.
(iv) Losses caused through insects and different disease.
(v) Manage to save seepage water.
(vi) Strict regulations for disbursement of loan.
(vii) Improvement in infrastructure.
(viii) Smuggling of wheat be checked.
The above mentioned areas are required to be needed for future study.
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List of Sampled Area Villages
District Khairpur
S. # Name of Village Taluka / Tehsil
1 Katohar
Khairpur Mirs
2 Lakha Saeed Khan
3 Misri Dharejo
4 Murtaza Shah
5 Noonari
6 Maitlo’s
7 Bachal Janwri
8 Sultan Noonari
9 Arbab Ali Shar
10 Phulpota Eidal
11 Manghanwari
Kingri
12 Abro
13 Rahuja
14 Ladho
15 Qaim Kalhoro
16 Azmat Machi
17 Qazi Wahar
18 Muhammad Ujjan
19 Dur Muhammad Vandiar
Gambat
20 Ali Bux Ujjan
21 Dargah Sharif
22 Dur Muhammad Daresh
23 Suk Wahan
24 Hussain Abad Shaikh
25 Jado Wahn
26 Fakirabad (Hattar)
27 Wassan
Sobhodero
28 Wadhar
29 Mir Khan Shahani
30 Gadeji
31 Shahani
32 Haji Shafi Muhammad Bhellar
33 Rasool abad
S. # Name of Village Taluka / Tehsil
209
34 Mandan
Mirwah 35 Haji Malook Shar
36 Khadim Ali Chowari
37 Hindiari
38 Haji Faiz Muhammad
Faiz Ganj
39 Kando Khan Shar
40 Mitho Chang
41 Haji Shar
42 Jumo Rajpar
43 Nangar Khan Shar
44 Talib Khan Shar
45 Ali Abad Halepota
Kotdigi
46 Mithri
47 Jiskani
48 Hussain Abad
49 Bozdar Wada
50 Khuda Bux Hisbani
List of Surveyed Villages District Sukkur
210
Tehsil Rohri 1. Shah Khair Mohammad
2. Ali Sheer Janwari 3. Arore 4. Budho Jo Khuo
5. Gahi Khan 6. Mando Dero 7. Riyarh Khan
8. Tando
Tehsil Pano Aqil
1. Bag Pai 2. Bag Bullo 3. Bulla
4. Hajo Moulodi 5. Khairo Bullo 6. Lal Kalwar
7. Makooro Khan 8. Mullah Ans 9. Qabool
10. Sultan Pur
Tehsil Salehpat
1. Bargah 2. Ghagro
3. Khabhri Bhit 4. Long go Goth 5. Ratoo Bhambro
6. Sheroja
Tehsil Sukkur
1. Ali Wahn 2. Soomar Goth
List of Surveyed Villages District Ghotki
Taluka Ghotki
211
1. Muhammad Kalwar 2. Kambir Khan Kolachi
3. Sijawal Khan Ghoto 4. Raes Noor Muhammad Khan Chachar 5. Jahanpur Sharif
6. Munchi Suleman Laghari 7. Arbab Khan Kaladi 8. Muhammad Siddique Khuhawar
9. Qazi Badal 10. Saleh Mahar
Taluka Daharki 1. Jewan Khan Pitafi 2. Darya Khan Gabol
3. Naoon Kot 4. Waloo Mahar 5. Bharchoondi Sharif
6. Ali Naich 7. Chandan Laghari 8. Fateh Pur
9. Bago Bhutto 10. Gaman Khushk
Taluka Ubauro 1. Kaloo Khan Rindh 2. Qital Khan Chachar
3. Daviri 4. Naseer Khan Panhwar 5. Chak Shahbaz
6. Dawood Wala 7. Rangpur 8. Muhammad Panah Shar
9. Marri 10. Saeed Abad
Taluka Khangarh 1. Waloo Mahar 2. Darya Khan Gabool
3. Gul Akbar 4. Chak Sharif 5. Ismail Pitafi
6. Nizamuddin Mahar 7. Muhammad Bux Buk 8. Ghulam Rasool Gabool
9. Ramzan Bhambhro 10. Sharafuddin Pitafi
Taluka Mirpur Mathelo 1. Khair Muhammad Lund 2. Fazil Khan Kolachi
3. Dathri 4. Jahan Khan Unar 5. Khalid Abad
212
6. Sahib Khan Lund 7. Yar Muhammad Bozdar
8. Ghulam Hussain Laghari 9. Siddique Kalwar 10. Gulu Pitafi
213
Questionnaire
Investigator: Ali Hassan Halepoto
1. Name Of Grower:
2. Status:
3. Village:
Tehsil:
4. Total Holding:
Crops Area sown % of Total Holding
Summer Crops
a) b) c)
d)
Winter Crops a)
b) c) d)
Total
214
Table 2
Farm Inventory
Particular
Beginning of Year End of Year + Appr. - Depr.
Area /
number
Value
Rs.
Area /
number Value Rs.
Land Machinery
a) b)
c) d)
Tools a) b)
c) d)
Total
215
Table 3 Land Inputs (Fixed Costs)
Particular Area Sown Acres Rate / Acres Amount
Rs. Rs.
Rend of land
Land Tax
Water charges Usher charges
Local fund
Total
Related Questions
1. Sources of irrigation water:
a) Canal water_____________________________ b) Tube well (ground water)___________________ c) Private source___________________________
2. Number of irrigations applied on crop:________________________
3. Was there shortage of water___________________________
216
Table 4 Inputs
(Farm Supplied)
Particular
Quantity owned Quantity purchase Procure-
ment and
transport charges
Total Amount
Rs.
Bags Or Kg
Rate Amount
Rs.
Bags Or Kg
Rate Amount
Rs.
Seed Fertilizer
a) b) c)
d) F.Y.M.
Pesticides
Herbicides
And other
Total
Related Questions
i) Did you obtain loan for farm cultivation
OR
Used own capital If yes (a) Sources of loan; Institutional or non-institutional
(b) Difficulties faced while obtaining loan (c) Conditions of repayments (d) Did you get it according to your srequirement?
ii) Date of Sowing iii) Crop variety sown
iv) Source of seed (a) owned (b) Purchased from another grower (c) Purchased from private shop (d) any other
217
Table 5 Capital Inputs
Particular Amount
Machinery a)
b) c) d)
Tools a)
b) c) d)
Any other
Total
218
Table 6 Labour Inputs
Operation
Manual Labour Bullock Work Tractor Use
Man Rate Amount Work
Day Rs. Rs
B. Rate Amount Work
D. Rs. Rs
Tr. Rate Amount Work
Hrs. Rs. Rs
Total Amount Rs.
Dry
Ploughing Leveling
Sowing
Irrigation Fertilizer
Application F.Y.M.
Spraying
Weeding
Picking
Stick cutting Miscellaneous
Total
219
Related Questions
1. Use of manual labor (a) Family (b) Hired 2. Use of Tractors (a) Owned (b) Hired 3. Number of ploughing (a) Owned (b) Hired
4. Planting method (a) Owned (b) Hired
Table 7
Marketing Costs
Items Quantity Supplied (kg) Rate
Amount
Transport Commission
Brokerage
Discount Miscellaneous
Total
Related Questions
1. Where did
you sell?
2. Did you sell
in local markets?
220
Table 8 Output
Product Area Sown Total yield Per Acre yield
(Acres) (Maunds) (Maunds)
Total
Table 9
Income of Output
Product
Sold Farm perquisites Total
amount Qty. Rate
Amount Qty. Rate
Amount
Total