how the ncrp informs js’s recidivism research
TRANSCRIPT
U.S. Department of Justice
Office of Justice Programs
BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS
How the NCRP Informs BJS’s Recidivism Research
Sixth Annual Data Providers MeetingApril 2017
Presented by
Joshua MarkmanStatistician
Recidivism & Corrections Units
2www.bjs.gov
Outline of the Presentation
•How the NCRP supports criminal history record-
based recidivism estimates
•BJS’s approach to NCRP-based recidivism reports
• Soliciting feedback
3www.bjs.gov
Criminal history-based recidivism support: Sample selection
• NCRP serves as the sampling frame for traditional cohorts such as admission or release
• Primary objective is to have all 50 states represented
• Review NCRP’s demographic, identifying, geographic information and data missingness by
year
• Outreach to non-reporting states requesting that they supplement submissions with
identifying information
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Criminal history-based recidivism support: Sample selection
• States participating in 2005 recidivism study: 30
• State inclusion in Release and Admission Cohort studies
• States approved to-date: 41
• States opting out of participation: 5
• States that have not yet responded to BJS request: 4
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Criminal history-based recidivism support: Verification
• Record matching and validation
• Confirm identifying, demographic, and criminal history
information in NCRP matches obtained criminal history records
• Straightforward, but a critical quality control step
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Criminal history-based recidivism support: Verification
• NCRP data contains details that criminal history records currently do
not contain
• E.g., Determinate/indeterminate sentencing or mandatory minimums
• NCRP data contains details that are much more robust than found in
criminal history records
• E.g., Demographics, returns to prison, release conditions
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BJS’s (planned) recidivism studies
• Release cohort: 2012 – 3 year recidivism rates
• Admission cohorts: 2009, 2014 – prior offending patterns
• Survey of Prison Inmates: Assess overlap between self-report and CHR
offending history
• Second Chance Act Pilot: Use CHR to assess program effectiveness
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BJS’s approach to NCRP-based recidivism reports
• Highlight two approaches to recidivism estimates
• Event-based – traditional criminal justice approach
• Cohort of releasees and track when and how frequently they return
• Offender-based – Alternative measure made possible through NCRP data collection
• Individuals released from prison over a long period
• Reweight a release cohort to resemble a “population” of offenders
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BJS’s approach to NCRP-based recidivism reports: Event and offender methodologies
PR N R N S S N C
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BJS’s approach to NCRP-based recidivism reports: Event and offender methodologies
2010 ReleaseEvent: 60% return
Offender: 60% return15 out of 25
Red images are not only those who returned to prison within X years, they are the EXACT same personNon-red images represent those who were released from prison and never returned
2012 ReleaseEvent: 60% return
Offender: 43% return15 out of 35
2014 ReleaseEvent: 60% return
Offender: 33% return15 out of 45
PR N R N S S N C
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BJS’s approach to NCRP-based recidivism reports: Event and offender methodologies
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Ret
urn
ing
Pe
rce
nt
Years-at-Risk
Event
Offender
PR N R N S S N C
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BJS’s approach to NCRP-based recidivism reports: Anticipated reports
• One (1) research paper:
• Discuss literature, methodology, estimate calculation for event- and
offender-based calculations
• One (1) policy paper:
• Exploring the appropriateness of employing event- or offender-based
methods based on the question / problem
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BJS’s approach to NCRP-based recidivism reports: Anticipated reports
• Three (3) initial, substantive reports in the series:
• Release cohort recidivism bulletin
• Admission cohort prior offending patterns bulletin
• Sentence length and time served special report
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Soliciting feedback
• Asking the right questions?
• When/how quickly do you need results?
• Is there an ideal format or medium?
• What is useful? What is not? What is missing?
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Joshua Markman
202.616.1718
Contact information