Highlights from Area VI, EUV forecast, results over the NADIR

MURI years

J.M. FontenlaLASP-University of Colorado

Collaboration with:I. Gonzalez Hernandez (NSO)

E. Quemerais (CNRS)C. Lindsey (NWRA)

Solar cycle situation

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

0.006

0.007

0.008

0.009

Year

Ly a

lpha

irra

dian

ce

AB

CSC23 SC24

PO

N

NOAA 10808 (far side)

NOAA 10808 (near side)

NOAA 10808 (far side)

NOAA 10808 (near side)

20 40 60 800.006

0.0065

0.007

0.0075

Current rotat ionShifted previous rotation

Days since 2005/8/1

Ly al

pha i

rrad

ianc

e

AR grew slowly on the near-side, but grew rapidly on the far-sideProduced advanced brightening.Helioseismic data had located this feature.

AR on far-side AR on near-side

Lyα backscattering had shown this feature brightness on the far-side.

2007

2008Features Synoptic Mask

Obsolescence mask indicates number of days since each pixel was observed by PSPT. 0 or -1 indicates observation on the same day.

Features mask show what is (or was) on the solar surface. Three identified regions correspond to active regions that were reported by NOAA with various numbers.The regions near the poles are never well observed. Carrington Longitude

Car

ringt

on L

atitu

de

5

0 200 400 600 800 1000 12000.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

8.1139.79321.07330.43330.39328.55390.813103.173113.453121.533159.353

8.1139.79321.07330.43330.39328.55390.813103.173113.453121.533159.353

Irradiance relative variation at some wavelengths

Day since 2005/1/1

Rela

tive

varia

tion

2009 (1)XUV/EUV Irradiance Synthesis

DAYS

WAVELENGTH8 nm0

970

150 nm

Computed spectra at 1 nm resolution, daily since 2005/1/1 (preliminary).The resolution was degraded after the full resolution radiance spectrum was computed for each feature and disk position.

6

2009 (2)A More Difficult Case

Early weak activity features in Sep 2009. Did not have a steady trend and did not last long.Their forecast is hard but then produce only a very small SSI variation.

Forecasted & observed Lyα

15 20 25 300.0058

0.006

0.0062

0.0064

ForecastedMeasuredForecastedMeasured

Day in Sep 2009

Irra

dian

ce in

Ly

alpha

ban

d

SRPM at 1 nm resolution

black-SRPM at 1Agreen-SOLSTICEviolet-SDO/EVEblue-Thuiller et all.

2010 (1)Comparison of EUV spectra with

SDO/EVE and SOLSTICE observations

2010 (2)Longer picture on Lyα spectral irradiance

-50 0 500.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1.00

1.01

1.02

1.03 SOLSTICE measured SRPM forecast mask (refined) SRPM obsolete mask

Rel

ativ

e irr

adia

nce

Days since 2010/8/4

2004 2005

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

Year

Valu

e

2011 (1)SC23 CHAMP neutral density nonlinear fit

comparison against SRPM Lyα

2002 2004 2006 2008

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

Lya (TIMED/SEE)Lya JGR 2011 (SRPM*1.2)Scaled CHAMP density

Year

Valu

e

A very simple, but non-linear, scaling matches well the Lyα solar cycle and rotational modulation trends to the neutral density derived by CHAMP at some locations.

2004.5 2004.55 2004.60.006

0.007

0.008

0.009

0.01

2003.8 2003.850.006

0.007

0.008

0.009

0.01

Champ density from J.M. Forbes 2009 data. At 400 km, 11:30 to12:30 local time, -5 to 5 deg center latitude.

Scaled value=f(neutral.density)

2011 (2)Forecast case C

An active region was tiny on the disk in the previous rotation, grew a bit before leaving the disk, and much more on the back side. Then stabilized before coming back again to the disk as a very large and bright active region. It was at a location where active regions have emerged and decayed before.Was also observed by GONG since 2011/9/5 just after leaving the solar disk.Below are just preliminary results by only including the change far-side region observed by GONG ongoing work will include evolution of other nearby regions.

18 12 6 0 6 12 18

7 10 3

7.5 10 3

8 10 3

SRPM-SWAN forecastSRPM frozen forecastSORCE/SOLSTICE

Days since 2011/9/14

Lya

irrad

ianc

e

18 12 6 0 6 12 18

1 10 12

2 10 12

3 10 12

SRPM-SWAN forecastSRPM frozen forecastSORCE/SOLSTICE

Days since 2011/9/14

Neu

tral d

ensit

y fo

reca

st

Data gapIn SOLSTICE

2011 (3)Solar physical models

Photosphere-Chromosphere Lower transition-region

Upper transition-region Corona

Features designation:A-weak internetworkB-internetworkD-networkE-active networkH-normal plageP-bright plageQ-very hot plage

S-sunspot umbraR-sunspot penumbra

Photosphere-Chromosphere Lower transition-region

Upper transition-region Corona

Features designation:A-weak internetworkB-internetworkD-networkE-active networkH-normal plageP-bright plageQ-very hot plage

S-sunspot umbraR-sunspot penumbra

2012 (1) nowcastW m-2 nm-1

2012 (2) nowcast

Forecast case studies

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

0.006

0.007

0.008

0.009

Year

Ly a

lpha

irra

dian

ce

A

B

CSC23 SC24

P

O

N

Case study N was published in 2009, case O was presented in NADIR 2009 meeting, case P in 2010 NADIR meeting. Cases A, B, C are presented here.

Where we are at now

60 70 80 90 1001 10 7

1 10 6

1 10 5

1 10 4

1 10 3

0.01

SRPM_qs (0.1 nm)OpO2pNpN2p

X-sections times 1e-4 cm^2

CTIPe run with SRPM nowcast Sensitivity exam of high-res SSI

Future work• Transition opportunities

• Improvements and comparisons as new cycle reaches max and decays

• Use of forecast in CTIPe and TIGCM

• Study relevance of improvements to thermospheric modeling (neutral density, electron density, and ionospheric properties)