…with help from: michael gehmeyr (lasp),
DESCRIPTION
Towards real-time Space Weather forecasts using CMIT: Geomagnetic variations and regional K indexes George Millward. …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP), Mike Wiltberger, Wenbin Wang, Pete Schmitt, Art Richmond, Astrid Maute (HAO) ….and: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Towards real-time Space Weather forecasts using CMIT: Geomagnetic variations and regional K indexes
George Millward
…with help from:
Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),
Mike Wiltberger, Wenbin Wang, Pete Schmitt, Art Richmond, Astrid Maute (HAO)
….and:
Terry Onsager, Howard Singer, Chris Balch (SWPC)
LFM
TIE-GCM
Magnetosphere -Ionosphere Coupler
Electric PotentialParticle Precipitation
ConductivitiesWinds
•CMIT: First principles, physics-based, 3D, time-dependent model. Consists of a coupling between the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry MHD Magnetospheric model(LFM) and the NCAR Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM)
•Present: Medium resolution mode. Running on “Bluesky”: NCAR IBM Cluster 1600 - 8 proc (OpenMP)
•Future: High resolution fast-mode (MPI). Next generation multi-processor computing resources
Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1
CISM Knowledge Transfer:
Transitioning CMIT
for Real-Time Forecasting
Space-Weather Forecast (SWPC)
Current Geospace Conditions
Coupled Magnetosphere Ionosphere Thermosphere model (CMIT 2.0)
•Initial: Real-time solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft. Lead time: about 1 hour
•Future: Solar wind model driven by solar observations Lead-time: 3 to 5 days
Real-time Inputs
Solar Wind Model
Output Products, User Benefits
•Initial: 1 hour forecast of geomagnetic activity, global ionospheric electron content, magnetopause location
•Users: Power utilities, Satellite operators, communication, precision GPS
•Future: 3 day forecast using solar model and observations.
Sun
Earth
CMIT 2.5 development on NOAA wJET computer
•wJET: LINUX Cluster (1400 cores)
•Utilizes Intel compilers
•Supports parallel processing via MPI (Not OpenMP)
•LFM and LFM-MIX running in parallel on wJET
•Tiegcm v 1.9 running on wJET
CMIT 2.5 (LFM MPI - TIEGCM1.9) on wJET 98% built
LFM
TIE-GCM
Magnetosphere -Ionosphere Coupler
Electric PotentialParticle Precipitation
ConductivitiesWinds
Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1
Space-Weather Forecast (SWPC)
Current Geospace Conditions
LFM
TIE-GCM
Magnetosphere -Ionosphere Coupler
Electric PotentialParticle Precipitation
ConductivitiesWinds
Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1
Space-Weather Forecast (SWPC)
Current Geospace Conditions
“in house” (NOAA SWPC)
Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1
LFM
TIE-GCM
Magnetosphere -Ionosphere Coupler
Electric PotentialParticle Precipitation
ConductivitiesWinds
Outputs/Products
Current Geospace Conditions
April 2006 Magnetic Storm
2nd 20thApril 20065 9 14
April 2006: Magnetometer data
April 2006: CMIT model output
JN
JE
JHorizontal
Summary / Comments:
Exciting initial results: CMIT clearly responding well during storm conditions:
Some problems.
Future:
Running CMIT 2.5 on NOAA wJET (soon !!)
Further runs needed for calibration/tuning
Inclusion of magnetospheric currents (LFM/RCM)