hank courtright senior vice president environment sector...

Role of Renewable Energy in Future Electricity Supply

2006 NARUC Summer MeetingSan FranciscoJuly 30, 2006

Hank CourtrightSenior Vice PresidentEnvironment Sector and Member Services

2© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Renewable/Other Nuclear Natural Gas Petroleum Coal

U.S. DOE Annual Energy Outlook – 2006

Generation, Billion kWh

U.S. Electricity Generation Forecast


Renewable Energy Technology Status 2005 World

Installed MW Issues

Wind Commercial 52,100 Integration at Large Scale

Solar PV Commercial 3,900 Conversion Efficiency and Cost

Solar Thermal Demo andPre-Commercial 370 High Capital Cost

Biomass Combustion Commercial 20,000 High Fuel Cost

Biomass Gasification Pilot and Demo <20 Hot Gas Cleanup

Ocean Energy Pilot and Demo <20 Cost and Reliability

Renewable Energy Technology Overview

Source: EPRI Renewable Energy Technical Assessment Guide: TAG-RE 2005 (1010407, 12/05)


State of the Global Renewable Energy Market160,000 MW Installed Growing at 25 GW/Year

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20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

World DCs EU 25 US Japan

SolarGeothermalBiomassWindpowerSmall Hydro

Plus:

720,000 MW Large Hydro

220,000 MW (th) Biomass Heating

28,000 MW (th) Geothermal Heating

77,000 MW (th) Solar Heating

1,000 MW of off-grid solar PV systems

“New Renewables”Installed Base (000 MW)

Total Renewable Energy = 1,206,000 MW Equivalent for Electricity and Heating Around the World

Source: Renewables 2005: Global Status Report


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Sources: AWEA, GE Wind, and ACORE

U.S. Wind Power Installations,MW/Year

9,700 MW installed base, 200535,000 MW estimated by 2015Key Issues: . Turbine availability . RPS extension past 2007. Siting and transmission

InstalledRPS RequiredNew

Wind Power


Per capita income in 1999

45,000

25,000

5,000

StatusCompleted

Proposed

Speculative

Under development

Wind Installations in U.S.

Source: GE


Sources: PV News and ACORE

U.S. Solar PV Installations,MW/Year

E

Approximate 5,000 MW in place Adding 1,500 MW/year globally

Key Issues:• Global competition • Distribution system impact

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100

150

200

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

GridOff-Grid

Solar PV$7 Billion/Year Global Industry


Net Metering Programs

MA: 60 kW

CT: 100 kWRI: 25 kW

VA: 10 kW (res.);500 kW (comm.)

NJ: 2 MWDE: 25 kW

1 MW

NY: varies (10 kW - 400 kW)

Ohio:No limit

100 kW

10 kW10 kW

30 kW

25 kW

25 kW

25 kW

50 kW

25 kW

25 kW

No limit

50 kW

100 kW 40 kW

20 kW

HI: 50 kW

50 kW

OK: 100 kW or 25,000 kWh

AR: 25 kW (res.);100 kW (comm.)

LA: 25 kW (res.); 100 kW (comm. or ag.)

40 kW

15 kW

IN: 10 kW and 1,000 kWh/month

GA: 10 kW (res.);100 kW (comm.)

State-Wide ProgramsIndividual Utilities

ME: 100 kW

MD: 200 kW

NH: 25 kW

40 States + D.C.

VT: 15 kW, 150 kW for ag.

FL: 10 kW

30 kW

DC: 100 kW

NC: 20 kW (res.);100 kW (comm.)

Source: Union ofConcerned Scientists


500 MW Contracts

Incremental Hydro

Solar Dish-Sterling:350 MW Contracts

Solar Trough:50 MWUnderConstruction

Geothermal, Hydropower and Solar Thermal-Electric


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1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1985 1995 2005

Million Gallons/Year

Biofuel options:• Corn-based ethanol fuel• Cellulosic ethanol fuel• Bio-diesel – U.S. and EuropeEst

Corn-Based Ethanol

Source: Renewable Fuels Association and ACORE

Renewable FuelsU.S. Ethanol and BiodieselOver $2 Billion Invested in 2005


*From Columbia Univ. Earth Engineering Center, 2003

Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) or Waste to Energy (W-T-E) Generation

• W-T-E Generation is driven by increasing land fill costs, $50–75/ton in some areas…it’s not the cheapest source of electric energy.

• Up to 34% of Municipal Solid Waste in New England goes to energy, 27% recycled, 39% to land fill.*

• For the U.S. 50 States average is 7% combusted, 32% recycled, and 61% to land fill.*


Goal

*PA: 18%¹ by 2020*NJ : 6.5% by 2008

CT: 10% by 2010

MA: 4% by 2009 + 1% annual increase

WI: 2.2% by 2011

IA: 105 MW

MN: 1,125 MW wind by 2010

TX: 5,880 MW by 2015

*NM: 10% by 2011*AZ: 1.1% by 2007

CA: 20% by 2010

*NV: 20% by 2015

ME: 30% by 2000

State RPS

*MD: 7.5% by 2019

*Minimum requirement and/or increased credit for solar¹ PA: 8% Tier I, 10% Tier II (includes non-renewable sources)

HI: 20% by 2020

RI: 15% by 2020

*CO: 10% by 2015

*DC: 11% by 2022

January 2006

NY: 25% by 2013MT: 15% by 2015

*DE: 10% by 2019

Renewable Portfolio Standards

Source: Interstate Renewable Energy Council


0

6,000

12,000

18,000

24,000

30,000

36,000

42,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Meg

awat

ts

Pennsylvania

*Assumes regulatory enforcement of voluntary RES.

Hawaii

California

Nevada

IA & WI

New Jersey

CT & RIMAMaine

Minnesota

AZ & NM

New York

Texas

New renewable energy supported:32,000 MW by 2017

Maryland

CO & MT

Illinois*

DC & DE

Source: Union of Concerned Scientists

The Supply Effect of RPS


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2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

EstimateProjectsTechnology and Service CosDevelopers

Renewable Energy Global M&A Activity, $ Millions

ACORE’s RE Finance Forum 2005

Major IPOs in 2005:• Q-Cells Germany• SunPower USA• Suntech Taiwan• Suzlon India

Source: New Energy Finance

Renewable Energy Financing is Entering the Mainstream


Fossil Fueled Generation Technologies in 2010

0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/Metric Ton

Pulverized Coal*(PC)

Natural Gas Combined Cycle**(NGCC)

Integrated GasificationCombined Cycle*(IGCC)

*Coal @ $1.50/mmBtu

**Nat’l Gas @ $6/mmBtu

No CO2 Capture

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10Levelized Cost of Electricity, Cents/kWh



Wind*

Nuclear**

Biomass

Non-CO2 Emitting Generation Technologies in 2010

* 29% Capacity Factor

** $1700/kw Capital Cost

3

4

5

6

7

8

9




Wind***

Nuclear****

PC*

IGCC*

BiomassNGCC**

*Coal @ $1.50/mmBtu **Nat’l Gas @ $6/mmBtu

***29% Capacity Factor ****$1700/kw Capital Cost

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


Comparative Costs of 2010 Generating Options


Comparative Costs of 2020 Generating Options


Nuclear****Wind*** Biomass

NGCC**PC*

IGCC*

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


*Coal @ $1.50/mmBtu **Nat’l Gas @ $6/mmBtu

***29% Capacity Factor ****$1700/kw Capital Cost


Historical and Projected Installed Wind Capacity 1981 - 2009

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10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Year

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity (M

W)

Europe U.S. Rest of World

Wind and Biomass Status and EPRI Program Direction

Wind:• Maturing technology and significant

resources, ~50 GW worldwide. Wind will play important role as non-emitting generation of choice.

• Future focus on integration issues on/ off shore, forecasting, condition monitoring, emerging operation and maintenance issues as utility own wind.

Biomass:• Fits utility’s traditional model, central dispatchable,

interest has been with co-firing, testing, corrosion assessment, etc.

• Direction is to track European experience broaden look to biofuels, gasification, more co-firing tests, develop biomass deposition.

Source: BTM Consult, World Market Update, 2005


Subsurface temperatures at 6-km depth (deg C)

Technology Status and EPRI Program Direction with Solar, Geothermal and Ocean Energy

Solar Energy:• Rooftop/building PV will emerge

with cost/efficiency improvement.• Solar thermal is better utility fit

but unproven and less upside.• EPRI monitoring for PV breakthrough, evaluating

solar thermal technology demonstrations.Geothermal Energy:• 2500 MW in the U.S., mostly in California and

Hawaii. Issues include high cost of geothermal wells, decrease output over time.

• Utility interest has waned, we will monitor.Ocean Energy:• A few hundred kW worldwide, ocean tidal and wave

energy offers significant potential, 10–20 years out.• EPRI opportunity is in early demonstrations and leadership

in the national program, including related wind-wave and hydro-kinetic turbines.

Source: NREL

hank courtright senior vice president environment sector...

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