Realizing the Potential for Energy Efficiency and Carbon Reductions

Alliance to Save Energy International Policy Leaders DialogueSeptember 25, 2008

Hank CourtrightSenior Vice President

2© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Electric Power Research Institute

• Founded in 1973

• Independent, non-profit

organization for public-interest

energy and environmental

research

• Collaborative approach involves

~450 participants in over 40

countries

3© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

7,000

6,500

6,000

5,500

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

En

erg

y (B

illio

n k

Wh

)The Potential for Electricity Savings

Codes and Standards

1 Includes embedded impact of EE programs implicit in AEO 20082 Utility Programs Encourage Increased Adoption

Market-driven Efficiency 1

+

AEO 2008 Reference Case

Avoided Electricity Consumption in 2030…

+

Maximum Achievable Potential 2

4© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Action Framework… Four Evolving Infrastructures

5© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Action Framework…Four Evolving Infrastructures

6© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Transitioning to Low-Carbon Generation

• Large-Scale Wind, Solar and Biomass

• Nuclear – Advanced Light Water Reactors

• Advanced Coal with Carbon Capture and Storage

• Distributed Rooftop Solar

There is no “silver bullet”

…we need them all!

7© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

U.S

. Ele

ctri

c S

ecto

rC

O2 E

mis

sio

ns

(mill

ion

met

ric

ton

s)

*Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)

EPRI Prism Transitioning to Low-Carbon Generation

Technology

Efficiency / ’07 Energy Act

Renewable Generation

Nuclear Generation

Advanced Coal Generation

Carbon Capture & Storage

Plug-in Hybrid Elec. Vehicles

DER (incl. Rooftop Solar)

On a path to de-On a path to de-carbonize the carbonize the

Electricity Electricity SectorSector

8© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Action Framework…Four Evolving Infrastructures

9© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Smart Grid Demonstration Project

Distribution ConsumerTransmission Substation Markets

Interactive . . . Two-Way Communications

10© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

U.S. Peak Demand Reduction

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

U.S

. S

um

mer

Pea

k D

eman

d*

(GW

)

Reduced Peak Demand in 2030…

• Energy Efficiency

• Demand Response

Achievable Potential

* Aggregation of regional summer peak demands; non-coincident

• Realistic Achievable Potential ~ 15%

• Maximum Achievable Potential ~ 21%

11© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Action Framework…Four Evolving Infrastructures

12© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Local Energy Networks… an Example

Grid-ConnectedConsumer Portal

13© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Becoming More Energy Efficient

Utility ProgramsEncourage

Increased Adoption

AchievablePotential

Consumers Respond to Technology Improvements

and Market Effects

Market – Driven Efficiency

Consumers Complywith Efficiency Mandates

Codes and Standards

14© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

EPRI’s Living Laboratory

Evaluating and testing energy efficiency technology

15© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Energy Efficiency Demonstration Project

Heat PumpWater Heaters

Variable Refrigerant FlowAir Conditioning

Ductless Residential Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners

Hyper-EfficientResidential Appliances

LED Street andArea LightingEfficient Data Centers

High-profile field demonstrations of six “hyper-efficient” technologies with significant energy savings potential

CO

MM

ER

CIA

LR

ES

IDE

NT

IAL

16© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Action Framework…Four Evolving Infrastructures

17© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Auto Industry Interest in PHEVs (and EVs)

PHEV or EREV EV

Production

Demo

Saturn VUE2-Mode BlendedIntro: 2011 CY

Chevrolet VoltExtended Range EV

40-mile EV range16kWh Li-Ion

Intro: 2010 CY

Ford Escape PHEV2008 CY, 21 car fleetwith SCE/EPRI/Utilities

VW Golf TwinDrive30 mile EV range20-car fleet, 2009

Nissan2010 CY Daimler Smart ForTwo

2010 CY

Mitsubishi iMIEV2010 CY, 100 mile range, PG&E, SCE demo

Dodge ZEO150-200 mile range

Subaru R1e50 Mile AER

10-car fleet 2008 CY

Ford/Eaton Trouble Truck10 truck fleet w/ utilities

Toyota Prius PHEV500-car fleet

2009 CY

18© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Annual Energy Consumption and Carbon Footprint Impact

Benefits of 20 Mile Range PHEV

19© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

PHEV – Electric Infrastructure Demos

•Understand the integration of electric grid and communications infrastructures

•Validate prior analytical work on environmental and societal benefits

•Understand consumer behavior and acceptance of this new technology

20© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Action Framework… Four Evolving Infrastructures

Creating the Electricity Network of the Future