Global trends in Voter Turnout

Joram Rukambe, Africa Programme Manager, International IDEA

Objectives of the Presentation

Highlight key trends in voter turnout and participation at the global levelPresentation based on research done by International IDEA on voter turnout world wide: 1945-2001Key sources include IDEA database on voter turnout (2002); The Global Report on Voter Turnout (2002); and the regional follow-up for Western Europe (2004) – see www.idea.int

Introduction

The 20th and 21th centuries saw increased enfranchisement of voters across geographical, racial, socio-economic and gender dividesThe 1970s – 1990s saw globalization of democracy - the ‘third wave of democracy’Independence & Democracy increased democratic countries from 27 % in 1970 to 62% in 2000 (Freedom House).

More avenues for political participation TODAY than EVER before

Direct DemocracyCitizen’s initiatives

Recalls

Referenda

Elections:Supranational

National (federal/central)

State (provincial/regional)

Local/district/municipal/canton

Lobbying and media debates

Civic and other community-based (traditional & religious) forums: (Khotla)

Reality check

2004 saw more people voting than ever before in the history of mankind

US, Ukraine, Indonesia, Afghanistan, India, etc.

European Parliament

South Africa Botswana NamibiaMozambique

Regional trends in voter turnout: 1990 - 2001

Eastern Europe72%

Western Europe78%

Oceania (Pacific and Australia)

79%

North, Central, and Southern America, Caribbean

65%

Africa64%

Regional trends cont.

Western EuropeLiechtenstein (17) 92%

Belgium (18) 92.5%

OceanaAustralia (22) 94%

New Zealand (19) 92%

N-America and Caribbean

Bahamas (6) 91%

Canada (18) 73%

AfricaBurundi (1) 91%

Angola (1) 91%

Mauritius (7) 82%

South Africa, Malawi, Namibia, Mozambique

Correlation between democratic consolidation and voter turnout?

Slow and steady decline in voter turnout since the 1980s

Voter apathy is across all regions: older and newer, and smaller and larger democracies.

World Wide Turnout: 1945 - 2001

Voter Turnout decline over time

FOUNDING AND SUBSEQUENT ELECTIONS BY REGION

Voter Apathy is more pronounced among:

Young voters

High-income voters

Diaspora voters

Increased access to information and education among women has reduced the ‘gender gap’ in voting since 1980

Factors influencing electoral participation

Socio-political factors Institutional/systemic factors

Mechanical/Procedural factors

Other factors

Socio-political FactorsBad governance: scandals, lack of transparency and accountabilityVoter distrust of political and electoral processes: ‘elections will always be stolen’Literacy rateGerrymander Lack of viable alternative to the incumbent: ‘when elections are over before they start’Social exclusion and political disenfranchisement: women, non-nationals, young voters, absentee voters

Systemic Factors

Electoral system: PR yield higher voter turnout compared to FPTP, unless in close-result constituencies

Voting age constraint: lowering to 16?Allowing non-national to vote,

especially in local elections?Compulsory vs. voluntary registration

and voting: pros and cons

Systemic Factors

Party-systems: multiparty systems tend to encourage high turnout, especially if each vote counts and is not be ‘wasted’

Election dates: holiday season - Dec 26th! rainy season?

Mechanical factors

Access to voter registration and voting: time and distanceAccess to information and education on democracy, elections, and votingSeveral day voting [Mozambique, Namibia]Declaring voting day a public holiday, or voting during the weekend Voter fatigue. ‘Yoked elections? Easy access to registration and voting for PLDs: Braille & wheelchair-friendly venues

Mechanical factors

Automation of key electoral processes (making it easy):

Voter registration [state initiated & continuous]

Voting

Counting

Access to election dispute resolution mechanisms, including alternative dispute resolution mechanisms (party liaison structures)

Other Factors which affect electoral participation

EMB independence and competence: How members are appointed and operate

Staff skills and competence

EMB financial and operational autonomy

EMB stakeholder management capacity

Public trust and confidence in political and electoral processes

The EMB must work hard to make this possible – ‘making the impossible possible’

Conclusion

The process of increasing voter turnout requires a two-prong approach:

Systemic reform: electoral systems and election procedures Introduction of vigorous and sustained civic and voter education campaigns to lure voters back to the polls

Stakeholder participation (multi-sectoral collaboration) is critical for the success of this two-prong intervention -End-