VOTER TURNOUTin the 2012 Election

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participation into their ongoing activities and services.

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TODAY’S PRESENTERS

WhoJulian Johannesen

Director of Research and Training

Nonprofit VOTE

Sophie LehmanCommunications Director

Nonprofit VOTE

http://www.nonprofitvote.org/voter-turnout.html

AGENDA

Agenda

Measuring Voter Turnout Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections The Swing State and Election Day Registration

Effects The Youth Vote The Latino Vote Gaps in Voter Turnout by Demographic Improving Voting and Elections

• Common Measurements• As a % of Registered Voters• As a % of Eligible Voters

• Voter Turnout• Highest Office and Total Turnout

• Voting Eligible Population• 18 and over, citizen, ex-offender

MEASURING VOTER TURNOUT

MeasuringVoter

Turnout

• What is the National Election Exit Poll?• What does the NEEP report?

– Share of the vote by demographics– Issue preferences– Partisan choice

• The Census’ Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement– Voter turnout estimates by demographic– Available in the spring after the election

TURNOUT DEMOGRAPHICS

MeasuringVoter

Turnout

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president

http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/

VOTER TURNOUT IN PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTIONS

• 58.7% of voting eligible citizens turned out to vote in the 2012 presidential election, about 130.3 million voters

VOTER TURNOUT IN 2012

Voter Turnout

2012• Turnout was dragged down by low

turnout in the large states like California, New York, and Texas

THE VOTER TURNOUT TREND

HIGH TURNOUT STATES

Many factors affect state turnout, e.g. whether there are other competitive races on the ballot or a controversial ballot measure – and the mobilization that goes with that.But the two strongest predictors of state voter turnout are: 1) Whether a state is a swing state2) Whether a state has Election Day

registration

FACTORS AFFECTING TURNOUT

Voter Turnout

2012

SWING STATESAND

ELECTION DAY REGISTRATION

• What is a “Swing State?” • Turnout in the 10 swing

states was 65.2%, 7.2 points higher than in non-swing states, which had an average turnout of 58%.

• Five of the ten states with the highest turnout in 2012 were swing states

SWING STATES

Swing andEDR

SWING STATES AND SPENDING

Swing andEDR

Source: Washington Post Online, “Mad Money: TV ads in the 2012 presidential campaign”

• What is “Election Day registration?”• In 2012, states with Election Day registration had

average turnout of 71.3%, 12.5 points higher than the turnout in states without EDR. Those states had an average turnout rate of 58.8%.

• Five of the ten states with the highest turnout in 2012 have some form of Election Day registration.

ELECTION DAY REGISTRATION

Swing andEDR

ELECTION DAY REGISTRATION

YOUTH VOTE AND

LATINO VOTE

• Young voters increased their share of the electorate by one point, from 18% in 2008 to 19% in 2012

• The youth vote was a determining factor in four swing states.

YOUTH VOTE

Youth and Latino

• Youth turnout was especially high in swing states – an estimated 58%, compared to just 47% in non-swing states.

• Young voters were the most racially and ethnically diverse segment of the electorate.

YOUTH VOTE

• In 2012, the Latino share of the vote rose to 10%.• Latino turnout is estimated at 53%, that’s six points

below the national average. Roughly 12.5 million Latinos voted out of a voting eligible population of about 23.7 million.

• Latino voters are a crucial voting bloc in many states, including swing states like Colorado, Florida, and Nevada. In Colorado the Latino share of the vote was 14%, in Florida 17%, and in Nevada 18%, all higher than in 2008

LATINO VOTE & THE RISING ELECTORATE

Youth and Latino

LATINO VOTE & THE RISING ELECTORATE

Youth and Latino

• The African American vote held steady at 13% of the electorate and may have surpassed the white vote in percent turnout

• API share of vote grew to 3%. With a 47% partisan gap favoring Obama over Romney

• Early voting continued to rise but more slowly. 35% voted early.

OTHER NOTABLE TRENDS

Youth and Latino

VOTER TURNOUTGAPS

VOTER TURNOUT GAPS

Gaps

IMPROVING VOTING AND ELECTIONS

• Online, paperless voter registration

• Election Day Registration or same-day registration during early voting periods

VOTER REGISTRATION MODERNIZATION

RegistrationModernizatio

n

• Pre-registration for young people

• Active voter registration

VOTER REGISTRATION MODERNIZATION

RegistrationModernizatio

n

info@nonprofitvote.org617.357.VOTE (8683)www.nonprofitvote.orgNonprofit VOTE89 South StreetSuite 203Boston, MA 02111

Sophie Lehmansophie@nonprofitvote.org

Julian Johannesenjulian@nonprofitvote.org