stata example voter turnout
DESCRIPTION
An example of how statistical analysis can help answer questions about voter turnout.TRANSCRIPT
- 1. Miguel Centellas
Croft Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science
The University of Mississippi
Voter Turnout in Europe & the Americas
2. Data from International IDEA
Freely available on the web, along with background
information.
3. Data from International IDEA
Freely available on the web, along with background
information.
4. Sample Selection: 51 Countries in Europe & the
Americas
Europe
Albania Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech RepublicDenmark Estonia
Finland France GermanyGreeceHungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia
LithuaniaLuxembourg Malta The Netherlands NorwayPoland Portugal
Romania Slovenia Spain SwedenSwitzerland United Kingdom
The Americas
Argentina Bolivia Brazil Canada Chile ColombiaCosta Rica Dominican
Republic Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Jamaica Mexico
NicaraguaPanama Peru Suriname United States Uruguay Venezuela
5. Sample Selection: 51 Countries in Europe & the
Americas
Established Democracies
Austria Belgium Canada Colombia Costa RicaDenmark Finland France
Germany IcelandIreland Italy Luxembourg Malta The
NetherlandsNorwaySwedenSwitzerland United Kingdom
United States Venezuela
New Democracies
Albania Argentina Bolivia Brazil Bulgaria ChileCzech Republic
Dominican Republic Ecuador
El Salvador Estonia Greece Guatemala HondurasHungary Jamaica Latvia
Lithuania MexicoNicaragua Panama Peru Poland Portugal
Romania Slovenia Spain Suriname Uruguay
6. Voter Turnout in 51 Selected CountriesVote/VAP* in Legislative
Elections, 2004-2008
All data from International IDEA (http://idea.int/vt)
VAP=Voting Age Population
7. How Can We Explain Differences in Voter Turnout?
Hypothesis 1:Voter turnout is a function of electoral systems.
Proportional representation should drive up voter turnout because
voters are less likely to waste votes.
Hypothesis 2:Voter turnout is a function of civil & political
liberties. Citizens will exercise their right to vote if they enjoy
a wide range of civil rights and political liberties.
Hypothesis 3:Voter turnout is a function of voting laws. Where
voting is compulsory, citizens are more likely to vote.
8. Voter Turnout in 51 Selected CountriesVote/VAP in Legislative
Elections, 2004-2008Data from International IDEA
(http://idea.int/vt)
9. Voter Turnout and Level of FreedomVote/VAP and Freedom House
Index Scores
10. Voter Turnout and Level of FreedomVote/VAP and Freedom House
Index Scores
11. Voter Turnout and Compulsory Voting
Average = 62%
(STDEV = 16.7%)
Average = 69%
(STDEV = 13.7%)
12. Regression Analysis Output in STATA
13. Regression Estimates for Voter Turnout
14. Regression Estimates for Voter Turnout
15. After Statistical Analysis:What Explains Differences in Voter
Turnout?
By itself, proportional representation does correlate with voter
turnout. But in multivariate analysis, it has no statistically
significant effect.
By itself, a countrys Freedom House score does correlate with voter
turnout. This variable also is consistently significant in
multivariate models.
By itself, compulsory voting has no affect on voter turnout.
However, it does have a significant, positive effect on voter
turnout in new democracies.
16. What Did We Learn?
Voters are more likely to turn out to vote (controlling for other
factors) when civil liberties and political rights are
protected.