fx weekly commentary - sep 11 - sep 17 2011 elite global trading

8/4/2019 FX Weekly Commentary - Sep 11 - Sep 17 2011 Elite Global Trading

1/5

The euro zones contagion shocks the markets

and sends the EURUSD to monthly lows down

to 1.3620, breaking the 6 month triangle

pattern it had created. A break below 1.3975

and 1.3840 has given the EURUSD some

steam as it moves to the downside. As Greece

approaches a possible default, the EURUSD

looks to possible keep its pace to downsidemovement. As the euro zone uncertainty

starts to reach a climax, the markets around

the world will be most likely shaken up going

into this weeks trading. Last week we were

surprised with the SNB move to Peg the Swiss

Franc against the EURO, which is a bold move

of manipulating their currency to limit risk in

Switzerland. Next in line to make bold moves

on their currency is BOJ, as the Yen moves

towards it's highs the BOJ will most likely not

allow for any further strengthening of their

currency, which will bring some sharp moves

on the YEN pairs in the weeks to come. As the

world waits to see if Ben Bernanke will move

into QE3 the US Dollar strengthens against

most of its counterparts, if we do not hear any

talk about QE3 from the FED we will most

likely see the US Dollar continue to

strengthen. Keep a close eye on these

developments when taking positions in the

currency markets. All EURO pairs have

made substantial moves down last week

on the Euro zone concerns and are

expected to continue over time, we will

most likely get more information on plans

to hold Euro zone together in the weekahead which will bring stable movement

for the EURO after last weeks slide down

on economic worries of collapse.

Bank of Japan has the go ahead from the G7

to take action if they feel it is necessary to

weaken their currency, with this said, we are

very skeptical to take any shorts in GBPJPY,

EURJPY, USDJPY, AUDJPY. For the time being

we will step aside from any short plays in

these pairs.

SNB also has taken bold action on their

currency with making a move to Peg their

currency against the EURO. On Thursday they

have their rate statement, and also have

stated they will stand firm with holding their

currency above 1.2000 against the EURO,

with this said, we are skeptical to take shorts

in the Swiss pairs until the market adapts to

this standing by the SNB.

Fundamental Outlook

Elite Global

Trading Forex Weekly CommentarySep 11th Sep 17th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 19

In this issue:

Fundamental

Outlook

1

AUDUSD

NZDUSD2

EURUSD

EURJPY3

GBPJPY

Event Risk4

Contact Info

Disclaimer5
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2/5

Elite Global

Trading

Sep 11th Sep 17th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 19

AUDUSD: The Aussie received great GDP, theeconomy in Australia grew by 1.2% in Q2.Although employment data was weak in

August: a drop in jobs and a rise in the

unemployment rate has put recent pressure

on the Australian dollar. The rally from parity

up to 1.0780 area looks to be complete and a

move back down towards 1.0300 is likely in

the week to come. Upside should be capped

well below 1.0750 area. Below 1.0300 the

lows near parity will certainly be tested, which

we expect to happen in the near future.

Recommendation: Bearish Bias, with risk offtrends starting to take over, we see 1.0300 in

target range this week, a break below 1.0300

a move down to 1.0000 is very likely. We

favor a rally prior to entry on short side. Look

for a move up towards 1.0550-1.0600 being

possible.

Australian Dollar / United States Dollar

NZDUSD: RBNZ will give their rate statementon Wednesday, no change is expected at the

moment. As risk appetite trends shift to risk

off trends we will most likely see this pair

back down towards .7900 in the weeks to

come.

Recommendation: Bearish Bias, a rally upto .8285-.8350. Support on the downside sits

at .8197, .8160, .8080, and .7965. We see aplay down to lows over the weeks to come. Be

cautious of the short term rally before the

move down to the lows happen.

New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) / United States Dollar


3/5

Elite Global

Trading


EURJPY: Has had a very strong move to thebearish side with the EUR on verge of

contagion. The appreciation of the YEN across

all pairs is not going to last with the BOJ on

the verge of pulling the trigger and moving

forward with intervening on the YEN strength,

if this happens you will see a spike up on all

YEN pairs. In the meantime the EURJPY is at

all time lows and most likely will continue to

push lower until BOJ takes action. Bearish

plays on any YEN pairs now is very dangerous

with G7 this past week saying they support

any moves done by BOJ to intervene for their

economies sake.

Recommendation: Bearish Bias, Careful ofany shorts with the BOJ on the verge of

intervention. We are very skeptical of going

short.

Euro / Japanese Yen

EURUSD: The acknowledgement by the ECBthat downside risks to growth have increased

suggest that ECB rate cut speculation will only

increase in the weeks to come. Also take a

look at the spread between 2-year US-German

government bonds now points to a EUR/USD

rate in the 1.2900/3000 area.

Technically, daily Ichimoku charts delivered a

strong sell signal in EUR/USD, with the

anticipated bearish crossover of the Tenkan

line below the Kijun line with price below the

cloud. At the close of the week, price is also

holding above the 61.8% retracement

(1.3659) of the 1.2867-1.4940 advance from

Jan. to May. Daily closes below these levels

will strongly suggest to me that further losses

are imminent and I would look for declines to

the 1.3350/60 area (76.4% retracement) as

the next target. We look to re-establish short

EUR/USD positions in the 1.3830/1.3960

area, which is marked by the daily lows in

June 2011 (1.3830/40) and broken trend

line support dating back to June 2010

(1.3955/60).

Recommendation: Bearish Bias, we look tosee this downward movement to continue in

the weeks to come. First we would like to see

a rally back towards 1.3840-1.3950 to look

for another short entry. A rally up cannot be

ruled out so be careful where you place your

entries on this strong movement down, but at

the same time with markets scared around

the world a continued move down without a

rally can also be very possible. We prefer to

wait for rally to have a tighter risk on the next

move down. With an entry zone between

1.3840-1.3950 we like to place stops above1.4100, looking for targets around 1.3407

and lower.

Euro / United States Dollar


4/5

Elite Global

Trading


Sunday:AUD: Trade Balance 9:30pm

Monday:USD: FOMC Member Fisher Speaks 4pm

Tuesday:

GBP: CPI 4:30am

GBP: Trade Balance 4:30am

AUD: Westpac Consumer Sentiment 8:30pm

WednesdayCHF: PPI 3:15am

GBP: Claimant Count Change 4:30am

EUR: Industrial Production 5am

USD: Core Retail Sales 8:30am

USD: PPI 8:30am

NZD: Rate Decision/Statement 5pm

AUD: MI Inflation Expectations 9pm

Thursday:CHF: Libor Rate/SNB Policy Statement

3:30am

EUR: ECB Monthly Bulletin 4am

GBP: Retail Sales 4:30am

EUR: CPI 5am

USD: Core CPI 8:30am

USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am

USD: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10am

Friday:EUR: Current Account 4am

USD: TIC Long-Term Purchases 9am

USD: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

9:55am

Weeks Event Risk

GBPUSD: The Pound has dropped along withglobal worries and British weakness. Theupcoming week has key inflation and

employment figures. Members at the Bank of

England might be discussing more

quantitative easing, which we may here more

about as weak data continues to come out of

the UK. We are holding above July low of

1.5785 and will likely break below this low in

the weeks to come as weakness in the

GBPUSD continues to build.

Recommendation: Bearish Bias, a move downtowards 1.5650 is likely in the weeks tocome. We favor a rally towards 1.6050-

1.6100. As the pair gains momentum to the

downside 1.5344 is December 2010 low that

is most likely to make it's next move towards

once it breaks 1.5785. Look for short

opportunities after rally. All moves to the

upside will most likely be capped well below

1.6200.

UK Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen


5/5

Any reliance you place onsuch information is thereforestrictly at your own risk.

In no event will we be liable for any

loss or damage including without

limitation, indirect or consequential

loss or damage, or any loss or

damage whatsoever arising from

loss of data or profits arising out of,

or in connection with, the use of this

newsletter.

The information contained in this

newsletter is for general information

purposes only. The information is

provided by Elite Global Trading and

while we endeavor to keep the

information up to date and correct,

we make no representations or

warranties of any kind, express or

implied, about the completeness,

accuracy, reliability, suitability or

availability with respect to the

newsletter or the information,

products, services, or related

graphics contained on the

newsletter for any purpose.

News letter Authors:

Anthony [email protected]

James [email protected]

Tel: 786-759-0348

E-mail:

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Elite Global Trading

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fx weekly commentary - sep 11 - sep 17 2011 elite global trading

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