fx weekly commentary july 17 - july 23 2011 - elite global trading
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8/6/2019 FX Weekly Commentary July 17 - July 23 2011 - Elite Global Trading
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GBPUSD: Has made a reversal to upside after
hitting low of month last week at 1.5780, with
BOE meeting min this week we see this rally to be short lived with much bearish pressure
on this pair. Looking up from current levels we
see next major resistance to be 1.6260 a
recent pivot high. Short term support comes
in at 1.6050 and 1.5990. A weekly key
reversal occurred this week, which may
indicate an important low is in place. A break
and close above 1.6260 will indicate further
upside potential. Watching to see if 1.6260
will hold this week.
Recommendation : Currently on sidelines and
watching to see if 1.6260 will hold, if not will
look to the long side of this pair, in mean time
will wait till rally ends and look for short plays.
Neutral outlook
Fundamental Outlook: We have officially
entered an economically driven time of
volatility. Between the Eurozone and the USA the world waits and to see how to position for
the upcoming months and years. With so
many risk factors at hand, a long-term picture
is very difficult to paint at the present
moment. All investors and money managers
have to play a game of tight risk and keep
open to changing short term view each week.
With the thin volume of the dog days of
summer, the swings in the FX markets have
been incredible. As a trader, one should focus
on capital preservation and tight risk, taking
trades that are most certain based on your
trading strategy. Keep an eye on events and
don't be fooled by intraday up and downmovements. Trends are changing weekly and
may continue to do this over the next several
weeks. Good Luck and enjoy the swings!
Fundamental Outlook
UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar
Elite Global
Trading Forex Weekly Commentary July 17th –July 23th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 13
In this issue:
Fundamental
GBPUSD 1
EURUSD
AUDUSD
EURAUD
EURJPY
2
Event Risk 3
Contact Info
Disclaimer 4
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EURUSD: The larger trend may have reversed from
bullish to bearish, but with such uncertainty of fundamental factors in both nations it's hard to tell
a long term picture. Focusing on short term levels,
we have support at 1.4100, 1.4060, 1.400,
1.3960 and resistance at 1.4300, 1.4350/75,
1.4450. A break and close above 1.4450 would
give strong indication of bullish picture and puts
1.4700 and 1.4900 back in sight. For now stay
focused on near term levels.
Recommendation: Short term outlook gives
indication to push higher towards 1.4300-1.4450,
a break of 1.4300 1.4450 is next level up. With adaily Dogi and weekly close near last weeks open.
Use 1.4100 and 1.4060 as support and risk
levels. Look for entry above those levels, a break
of these levels changes this trade opportunity.
Target 1.4300 and final target of 1.4450. This is a
very risky play for the long. If you would rather play
it safe look to go short from 1.4225-1.4300 look
to place stop above 1.4450. With current
economic picture shorting after rallies is a safer
bet. Very tricky, be patient.
Euro / US Dollar Elite Global
Trading
July 17th –July 23th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 13
AUDUSD: Pair currently holds range between
1.0390-1.0800. Short term picture gives evidence
to a break above possibility, on a 4th chart we
have a reverse head and shoulders forming, if this
pattern holds we see 1.0800 being broken and a
test of 1.1000 ver highly likely with close above
1.0800. If this patter does not hold we favor
downside to retest low at 1.0390 and a break of
this we see 1.0200 to be very likely.
Recommendation: Respect current short term
levels and watch to see if this bullish pattern
unravels, if not be ready for short side break.
Current outlook is Neutral. Watch for RBA meeting
min this week, this should give a clearer direction
for next major move.
Australian Dollar / United States Dollar
EURAUD: Reached a low of 1.3101 last week.
Current outlook is extremely bearish. With last
weeks close near the weeks high, the picture
looks like a rally ahead of the next downturn.
Near term support at 1.3174, 1.3100 a break
below 1.2920 will be a large slide for this pair.
We see a rally up towards 1.3400, 1.3471
prior to the next move down. We see this to be
a good opportunity on the short side playing
the Euros weakness from it's current troubles.
Recommendation : Bearish bias, wait for rally
to finish and look for a short below 1.3200
with target of 1.2930 and a break of that level
will indicate a slide to extension levels near
1.2750. Stay patient and watch this pair
closely, large potential over the next week.
.
Euro / Australian Dollar
EURJPY: Pair reached a low of 109.50 last
week and has a strong bearish picture. Since
the low the the rally has been capped at
112.80. A further rally is expected prior to
next drop. Resistance levels are 112.80,
113.42 113.75.
Recommendation : Look for rally to finish
around 113.50 and look for short entry with
109.50 and 108.50 as target zone. A
possibility of last years low to be tested
around 105.50. Bearish Bias.
Euro / Japanese Yen
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Elite Global
Trading
July 17th –July 23th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 13
Monday:
USD: TIC Long term Purchases 9am
AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Min
9:30pm
Tuesday:
EUR: German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5am
USD: Building Permits 8:30am
Wednesday:
CGBP: Monetary Policy Meeting Min
4:30am
USD: Existing Home Sales 10am
Thursday:
EUR: Flash PMI
GBP: Public Sector Net Borrowing/RetailSales 4:30am
USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am
USD: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
10am
Friday:
EUR: German IFO Business Climate 4am
CAD: Core CPI 7am
CAD: Retail Sales 8:30am
Weeks Event Risk
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such information is therefore
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The information contained in this
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while we endeavor to keep the
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News letter Authors:
Anthony Rousseau :
James Putra
Tel: 786-759-0348E-mail:
Elite Global Trading
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