fx weekly commentary aug 14 - aug 20 2011 elite global trading

8/6/2019 FX Weekly Commentary Aug 14 - Aug 20 2011 Elite Global Trading

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USDCHF: The Swiss Franc reached a extreme

high last week and has shown a strong weekly

reversal in all its pairs. With mixed USD data this week expected to come out, this pair had

a strong reversal weekly bar last week and is

expected to continue its move towards major

resistance at .8285 before it makes another

move downwards following its long-term trend

Bearish. A pullback is expected before this

pair continues its bull move.

Recommendation: Short term bullish, wait for

pullback to enter this pair on the long and

careful of congestion. A pullback to .7800and .7730 is expected prior to long

continuing. A further move down brings

support at .7670, .7590 and .7490.

Congestion is probable for this pair so be

careful for what to expect with the moves

when entering. Resistance on upside is

at .7915, .7954, .8030 .8140. +

An economic outlook for the week with eyes

on Spain and Italy debt and French CDS over

the next few weeks in the Eurozone. In the US

TIC on Monday some important numbers and

Thursday is a big day for US data. The pastfew weeks have been extremely volatile with a

calmer week ahead can be expected with no

very critical data compared to the past few

weeks. The change in focus happens day to

day In these volatile markets with pressure

coming off the US for now. Keep any eye in

the Swiss Franc on a possibility target band or

peg, so range may become tight in all CHF

pairs, keep an eye on the data out of

Switzerland, for all CHF pairs will be affected.

Fundamental Outlook

United States Dollar / Swiss Franc

Elite Global

Trading Forex Weekly Commentary Aug 14th –Aug 20th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 15

In this issue:

USDCHF 1

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

GBPCHF

2

GBPUSD

GBPJPY

3

EURUSD

EURJPY 4

Contact Info

Disclaimer 6

EURCHF

Event Risk 5

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GBPCHF: The Swiss Franc reached a extreme

high last week and has shown a strong weekly

reversal in all its pairs. The GBPCHF is coming

off its all time low at 1.1459 last Tuesday and

has driven to its most recent high at 1.2885

to start this week off. A test of some higher

levels is likely before this pair goes back to its

long term bearish bias. A pull back towards

1.2550 is likely prior to this bull move

continues.

Recommendation: Short Term Bullish Bias,

looking for pull back towards 127.00-125.50,

topside resistance levels to watch for where

major resistance may be is at 1.3080 a break

here will push towards 1.3160 1.3260 and

1.3300. With the strong 4 day recovery up to

these highs a recovery pullback is expected

prior to these resistance levels being tested.

Support sits at 1.2770 1.2650 and 1.2549. If

the 1.3080 level holds on upside a look to the

short side may come into play. Take into

consideration this pair has moved up from low

of 1400 pips inside 3 days, which is indicative

of an impulsive move.

UK Pound Sterling / Swiss Franc

Elite Global

Trading

Aug 14th –Aug 20th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 15

AUDUSD: Last week this pair reached a low

of .9925. Last week the low happened onTuesday and the week closed with the entire

short move being retraced close to where the

open was of the week. This gives us a weekly

reversal candle that may indicate that the low

of .9925 is in place for the month and a look

higher is likely or congestion in current

monthly range to the high of 1.1060. With this

wide range to play in we have some levels to

play both on long and short side. Current

picture indicates to a move higher for the

beginning of week. With RBA coming out with their Monetary Policy Meeting Min on Monday,

current outlook shows that they may be

looking to lower rates, if this is the case abearish opportunity may present itself. A

move towards 1.0500 is likely within the next

24 hours prior to event.

Recommendation: Neutral, Monday evening

will give us a stronger picture of the week

after RBA comes out with their min, if a dovish

outlook for economy then we will likely see a

move lower, other wise we may see a move to

higher resistance levels at 1.0500, 1.0680

and 1.0700. Support sits at 1.0366, 1.0250

1.0200 1.0110. Looking for plays on both

long and short side.

Australian Dollar / United States Dollar

NZDUSD: This pair has the same weekly bar

from last week as the AUDUSD, also this pair

came off its all time highs the previous week

giving this pair a range of over 900 pips for

the month. With last weeks weekly bar

showing a doji, a move higher is probable for

this pair as well. A move to .8400 and .8500

is very probable to start this week off, a

pullback towards .8300 can be expected prior

to the move up to these resistance levels. The

only news on the docket this week to watch

for is on Tuesday at 6:45pm, PPI, which is

expected to be weaker which may turn this

pair back to a short play to support levels.

Recommendation: Neutral, Look higher to

start the week off towards .8400-.8500 and

stronger resistance at .8650 area. With

Tuesday's numbers most likely weaker a movelower is probable and a short down to support

may present itself. Support sits at .8308,

.8280, .8214, .8170 and .8100. a break their

will bring the low of .7960 into play.

New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) / United States Dollar







Elite Global

Trading


GBPJPY: This pair similar to EURJPY with the

BOJ possibility of intervention, if this were to

happen this pair will also surge higher.

Current outlook for this pair is lower to new

lows. With the Pounds CPI numbers out

Tuesday most likely giving strength to GBP

pairs, this pair most likely to break higher tostart week off, but will not last with weak

outlook from UK on Wednesday. So look for

some upward movement to start this week off

in this pair but by Wednesday tops to be

created and look to the bear side. Now this is

subject to change based on BOJ to intervene,

like I said before which would make this pair

surge to highs above the 130s.

Recommendation: Long term picture is

Bearish, a move to resistance levels to start

week off is expected, 126.20, 126.60 and

strong resistance at 127.00 area. A break of

these levels will most likely come from a BOJ

intervention, if this does not happen then a

push lower is likely after these levels are

tested. Most likely a shift to bear side will

come after Wednesday, which is when UK will

give its rate outlook.

UK Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen

GBPUSD: This pair has an economic focus on

Tuesday with expected CPI numbers to come

out with an increase which may push this pair

higher with hopes the UK will raise rates

sooner then later. With this months low sitting

at 1.6100 and high at 1.6475 we are looking

at a possible push higher from current levels

to test 1.6475 again, but with the UK still

standing firm with holding rates and most

likely not to give an hint of when they will

make a move the top of 1.6475 may stand

strong and a new low may be more likely.Wednesday is the meeting min and most

likely when a bear move will present itself.

Recommendation: Neutral with a possibility

on the long side prior to Wednesday, but with

the UK meeting min on Wednesday morning,

likely to continue the dovish outlook which will

drive this pair lower, exposing a short

opportunity to the lows. Highly probable for

the pair to test highs at beginning of week and

make a move lower after Wednesday.

Economic outlook does not look strong

enough to break highs.

UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar







Elite Global

Trading


Monday:

USD: TIC Long Term Purchases 9am

AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Min 9:30pm

Tuesday:

EUR: German CPI 2am

GDP: CPI 4:30am

EUR: Flash GDP 5am

USD: Building Permits 8:30am

USD: Capacity Utilization 9:15am

NZD: PPI Output 6:45pm

Wednesday:

EUR: Current Account 4am

GBP: MPC Meeting Min 4:30am

EUR: CPI/Core CPI 5am

USD: PPI 8:30am

JPY: Trade Balance

Thursday:

GBP: Retail Sales 4:30am

USD: Core CPI 8:30am

USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am

USD: Existing Home Sales 10am

USD: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10am

Friday:

EUR: German PPI 2am

GBP: Public Sector Borrowing 4:30am

CAD: Core CPI 8:30am

Weeks Event Risk

EURCHF: The Swiss Franc reached a extreme

high last week and has shown a strong weeklyreversal in all its pairs. With the EUR in a tight

range now we may see the EURCHF pair make

small move higher and start to congest in

current range. A strong resistance level on the

upside is 1.1653, below this we are looking at

a long term bearish bias. This pair as the

other CHF pairs has a weekly reversal bar

from last week indicating a possible direction

change, which may give this pair a look

higher. Prior to going higher a pullback is

expected towards 1.1150-1.1080. Congestion

can be expected with this pair, so small

moves on bull or bear can be made, favoring

short term bull moves, need to keep in mind

the longer term is still bearish on all CHF pairs

except CHFJPY and need to keep that in mind

on the profit side when in a long position. Thispair has a range of 1400pips this month

giving opportunity to both the bull and bear

side, keep in mind the strengthof the CHF and

an economic changes for the SWISS FRANC.

Recommendation: Short term bullish bias with

taking in consideration the long term Bear

outlook. Looking for a pullback to occur

towards 1.1150-1.1080. Possible entry on the

bull side taking into consideration the levels

on the way up and strength in the move. A

reversal sign to short side will give a longer

term play to some lows, with support at

1.0978, 1.0828, 1.0680 and 1.0537.

Euro / Swiss Franc







Any reliance you place on

such information is therefore

strictly at your own risk.

In no event will we be liable for any

loss or damage including without

limitation, indirect or consequential

loss or damage, or any loss or

damage whatsoever arising from

loss of data or profits arising out of,

or in connection with, the use of this

newsletter.

The information contained in this

newsletter is for general information

purposes only. The information is

provided by Elite Global Trading and

while we endeavor to keep the

information up to date and correct,

we make no representations or

warranties of any kind, express or

implied, about the completeness,

accuracy, reliability, suitability or

availability with respect to the

newsletter or the information,

products, services, or related

graphics contained on the

newsletter for any purpose.

News letter Authors:

Anthony Rousseau

[email protected]

James Putra

[email protected]

Tel: 786-759-0348

E-mail:

[email protected]

Elite Global Trading

Disclaimer

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** Keep a close eye on US Debt

Ceiling Vote, Tuesday & Wednesday

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fx weekly commentary aug 14 - aug 20 2011 elite global trading

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