fx, futures and etf – classical chart patterns report – aug 11

8/12/2019 FX, Futures and ETF Classical Chart Patterns Report Aug 11

1/15

1. Patterns in Play

(USD-CAD, USD-CHF, EUR-USD, AUD-USD, COFFEE, SOYBEANS, BRAZIL &

JAPAN ETF, GBP-USD, Nzd-Usd)

2. Developing Patterns

(Gold GOLD MINERS)

3. Developing Patterns

(GBP-JPY, GBP-CAD)

Commodities & Forex

Classical Chart

Patterns Report

ProTradingFutures.com

Week of August 11, 2014

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2/15

Patterns in Play

The daily chart , on itss ide, prov ided twosmaller patterns (adescending Wedge anda reversal Cup andHandle) that allowed usto identify a good risk/reward setup to profitfrom this bounce andpossibly hold a positionup to the measuredtarget of the biggerpattern.

UNITED STATES DOLLAR/CANADIAN DOLLAR (USD-CAD)

In its monthly chart, the USD-CAD pair shows a completed Bottomformation, followed by quick thrust and then a correction to retest theNeckline.


PORTFOLIO POSITIONING

My position in this market remain unchanged from the last week. Implanning to sell 1/3 of my position at 1.100 and keep the rest for theother 2 targets above: 1.129x and 1.16xx. Im risking a close below

1.070.


3/15

Patterns in Play

USD-CHF

Wedges are patterns that shall generate shift moves.


When I commit to play

a Wedge I want to seea decisive follow upfrom from market.USD-CHF failed to doso.So, even if there aretwo pat terns ( theweekly Wedge and thedaily Cup and Handle)

that are still in play in this cross rate, Im out of it as of Friday.

PORTFOLIO POSITIONINGI am flat in this market


4/15

Patterns In Play

EURO FX (EUR-USD, 6E, M6E)

Long term charts of the Euro shows a multi year price congestion, thatmakes difficult, if not impossible, to engage in a long term campaignkeeping a small risk/reward profile.


PORTFOLIO POSITIONINGIm short this market via futures contract with a stop just above theNeckline of the H&S (at 1.356).The Head and Shoulder target is at 1.300.

Shor t t e rm, asmall Head andS h o u l d e rformation (visibleboth on on theda i l y and t heweekly charts)was completed onJuly 22.

The target of thispattern is 1.300.


5/15

Patterns In Play

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR - UNITED STATES DOLLAR (AUD-USD, 6A,

M6A)

Long term, the Australian dollar has an un-reach target from a multimonth Symmetrical Triangle (visible on the monthly plot below) at

around 0.800.I havent seen any good tradable short setup in this pair over the pastmonths but the past week.


AU$ completed a small Headand Shoulder that projects amove just below 0.9200. Thissmall pattern eventually can bethe start of a move to 0.8000.


Im short via September futureswith a stop on close only at0.9383.


6/15

Patterns In Play

COFFEE (KC, JO)

Wow! Coffee is a market that can be very volatile and that reminds mewhile I prefer to stick with Coffee ETF rather than trade futurescontracts. The close above Junes high made 42/JO the next target

higher.Even if the price action of the past week was all but supportive, thissetups remains valid until a close below $34 would negate the failedHeand and Shoulder interpretation.

PORTFOLIO POSITIONINGI have closed all my longs before either the target and the stop got hit. Isimply didnt like to see such big weakness in a market in which Imlong.



7/15

Patterns in Play

SOYBEANS (ZS, XS)

The market is struggling at the neckline of a multi-month H&S pattern.The gap (visible on the weekly) at $1130 shall remain open for thispattern to remain valid.


I was hoping for a gap down on Monday but the market failed to followmy willing (!) and so I ended up closing my short position at break-evenon Thursday.In reality what I didnt like about XS/ZS was the divergence betweenRSI and price (see the chart below).

PORTFOLIO POSITIONINGIm short at these levels. with a buy SOC at $1120


8/15

Patterns in Play

Short term the ETF is making higher lows and higher highs.More upside is expected, both sort term and medium term.

BRAZIL INDEX MSCI ISHARES (EWZ)

A 46-month descending Wedge is in play. The measured objective ofthis pattern is at $78.



9/15

Patterns in Play

DFJ JAPAN SMALL CAP DIVIDEND WISDOM TREE

Last week DFJ felt apart as most of the index equity ETF. The low oflast week shall not be penetrated on closing basis for the bullish setupto remain in place.



10/15

Patterns In Play

Long term, the1.675level remains the line inthe sand betweenbullish territory and thecongestion range.

BRITISH POUND (GPB-USD, 6B, M6B)

Until we remain above 2011 highs (around 1.675) the long termprospect for the Cable remains bullish.Short term this cross rate has been in a free fall and is unlikely to

present any decent setup for a swing trade on the upside.



Im flat.


11/15

Patterns in Play

This is not a good sign.

In particular, a closebelow 0.840 wouldnegate the SymmetricalTriangle interpretationand suggest that aretest August 2013 low(around 0.7720) couldoccur before new highsare seen in this market.

NEO ZEALAND DOLLAR/UNITED STATES DOLLAR (NZD/USD)

The long term Symmetrical Triangle in NZ$ remains in play, BUT pricesfailed to close above 2011 highs.



Im flat after that I got kicked out from my longs at 0.8580.


12/15

Developing Patter

BRITISH POUND/CANADIAN DOLLAR (GBP-CAD)

This market presents a juicy opportunity, in my point of view.

As you can see from the longer term chart, GPB-CAD is forming apossible tight Flag after an explosive move from a multi-year base.


Looking at the daily charts we can expect a quick development on theupside. Anyhow until we have a clear breakout, Im not going to take

any commitment here.


13/15

Developing Patter

GOLD MINERS (GDX)

The long term chart of Gold Minders is forming a reversal setup at akey critical level. The measured objective price of the reversal Headand Shoulder (visible in the weekly chart) is 40% above current levels.


Shorter term this market has generated a lot of false signal. A good wayto remove the noise is to look the daily line chart only (shown below).

Im willing to commit on the long side at a close above $28 risking aswing low to $25.5. In my opinion the upside potential here is muchmore than the H&S target.
http://proptradingfutures.com/gold-miners-etf-are-forming-a-reversal-at-key-support/


14/15

Failed Patterns

Last week action negated this interpretation.

BRITISH POUND-JAPANESE YEN (GBP-JPY)

The weekly plot leaves no doubts: the medium and long term trendsare up. For the last several months the price has been in a congestion.



Long 12,500 GPB/JPY. Entry price: 174.6. Stop @ 172.0. I will add to

my position above 174. Im not going to short on weakness.


15/15

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fx, futures and etf – classical chart patterns report – aug 11

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