global fx strategy | fx quick notes 120 40 high …...source: google, scotiabank ficc strategy....
TRANSCRIPT
1
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday September 22, 2020
High-Frequency Dashboard: Tracking the Post-Lockdown Recovery (September 22, 2020)
Shaun Osborne
Chief FX Strategist
461.945.4538
Follow us on Twitter @SCOTIABANKFX
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20
Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada Google Community Mobility % change from baseline, 7-dma
(Last: Sep 11)
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20
Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma
(Last: Sep 11)
Google Community Mobility
• Daily Google data tracking movement trends points to slowing gains in economic activity which in part reflects seasonal patterns (summer
holidays)—see temporary decline in workplace activity in Germany—but may also be due to the re-imposition of some lockdown measures in
certain regions. While the end of strict quarantine periods led to an initial, strong, rebound in activity the coming quarters will see growth returning
to a smoother trajectory, with economic output unlikely to reach its pre-coronavirus level before late-2021 given the economic impact and job
losses resulting from the shutdowns and their spillovers. Retail, transit, and workplaces mobility in the US has been flat since mid– to late-June.
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20
Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
UK Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma
(Last: Sep 11)
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20
Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Germany Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma
(Last: Sep 11)
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20
Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Japan Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma
(Last: Sep 11)
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20
Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Mexico Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma
(Last: Sep 11)
Juan Manuel Herrera
FX Strategist
416.866.6781
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20
US GermanyUK JapanMexico Canada
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Google Community Mobility: Workplaces
% change from baseline, 7-dma(Last: Sep 11) -100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20
US GermanyUK JapanMexico Canada
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Google Community Mobility: Retail
% change from baseline, 7-dma(Last: Sep 11)
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20
US GermanyUK JapanMexico Canada
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Google Community Mobility: Transit Stns.
% change from baseline, 7-dma(Last: Sep 11)
2
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday September 22, 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada and US:Topic "Unemployment Benefits"
respective peak = 100(Last: Sep 18)
Canada 7-day ma
US7-day ma
0
20
40
60
80
100
03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada and US:Search Term "New Car"
respective peak = 100(Last: Sep 18)
Canada7-day ma
US7-day ma
0
20
40
60
80
100
03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada and US:Search Term "Rent Relief"
respective peak = 100(Last: Sep 18)
Canada7-day ma
US7-day ma
20
40
60
80
100
03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada and US:Search Term "Realtor"
respective peak = 100(Last: Sep 18)
Canada7-day ma
US7-day ma
Google Search Trends
• Google Trends data shows a marked decline in search interest for unemployment benefits in Canada—including searches for the federal
government’s other income support programmes, CERB and CESB. In the US, searches for unemployment benefits have fallen to their lowest
point since March after jumping in early August; which may have reflected the end of supplementary unemployment benefits in late-July and a
new round of layoffs as some businesses closed with the rebound in cases in certain states. ‘Realtor’ search interest remains elevated amid ultra-
low borrowing rates in Canada and the US but has eased as the summer buying season passes. Searches for ‘covid test’ have surged in several
countries while searches in the US and Mexico ease from their Jul/Aug peaks.
0
20
40
60
80
100
03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada and US:Topic "Bankruptcy"
respective peak= 100(Last: Sep 18)
Canada7-day ma
US7-day ma
0
20
40
60
80
100
03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20
UK FraIta MexUS Cda
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Search Term "Covid Test"
respective peak = 100, 7-day ma (Last: Sep 18)
New York Fed Economic Index
• The NY Fed’s weekly economic index which
aggregates ten different daily and weekly
indices points to a year-on-year decline in
GDP of around –4.9% in mid-September
equivalent to a 25% q/q increase for Q3
following a 32.9% q/q contraction in Q2.
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20
Source: FRBNY, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US FRBNY WeeklyEconomic Indexy/y % GDP grow th equivalent(Last: Sep 19)
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20Source: FRBSF, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
San Fran Fed US Daily News Sentiment Index
index(Last: Sep 20)
San Fran Fed News Index
• The FRB of San Francisco’s Daily News
Sentiment Index, which tracks the implied
tone of news articles in 16 major US
newspapers, points to an improvement in
sentiment since its trough in late-March but
remains quite subdued relative to early-2020.
Indeed New Job Postings
• Online daily job postings on Indeed remain
practically unchanged relative to 2019 in the
US, and now also in Canada—although it is
still to early to tell whether this holds.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20
US (2019) US (2020)
Canada (2019) Canada (2020)
Source: Indeed, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Indeed New Job Postings
Feb 1 = 100, 7-dma (Last: Sep 11)
3
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday September 22, 2020
Scotiabank Canadian Merchant Data
• Scotiabank debit and credit card payments data compiled by our Economics, Customer Insights, and
Data & Analytics teams show that retail transactions across core merchant categories have rebounded
solidly in Canada from their April depths when compared to the same period last year. Total credit and
debit transactions now stand around their year-ago levels after falling by close to 30% y/y in April but
after showing a 5-10% increase in prior weeks; clothing, automotive, and health expenses are now
rising (or sit unchanged) year-on-year while restaurant expenses are also recently increasing. While
the lockdown measures, travel bans, and fear of contagion have sharply hit the travel industry—with
transaction volumes down about 50% y/y as of a week ago—other sectors have seen an increase in
sales as people spend more time at home (e.g. computer software sales). For more details see here.
For questions contact Nikita Perevalov ([email protected]).
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20
Travel RestaurantsHardware AutomotiveClothing EntertainmentHealth Tota l
14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Sep 11)
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.
Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category
-50
0
50
100
150
200
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20
Telecom Computer network
Computer software Grocer ies
Digital goods Tota l
14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Sep 11)
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.
Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category
Scotia FX Risk Appetite Index
• Our daily risk appetite index—a factor of
financial risk variables such as CDS spreads
and market volatility—is trading just around
its 40-day MA.
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20
MfgFinanceProf/Biz svcsEduc/HealthLeisure/HospTotal
Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Burning Glass,
Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US Job Postings by Industry
% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Sep 11)
Affinity Solutions US Card Spending Data
• Affinity Solutions debit and credit card payments data show that retail sales in the US remain
around 5-10% off their baseline in early-2020—but on a slight upward trajectory since July—with
grocery purchases remaining elevated as individuals spend more time at home while spending on
recreation and transportation remains quite depressed at ~ 50% lower than baseline, while
accommodation and food spending is about 25% lower. Spending on general merch. & apparel
has rebounded to only ~5-10% below baseline. The data show tentative signs that the stalling
from June through most of August has ended; note that the latest correction likely reflects reduced
activity on Labour Day weekend.
Burning Glass US Jobs Postings
• Weekly Burning Glass data show that US job
postings were down by 21% y/y, compared
to their pandemic trough of –39% in late-
April. Openings in the leisure and hospitality
sector appear to have been severely
impacted by the re-imposition of lockdown
measures in certain states with steep
increases in COVID-19 cases.
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Scotiabank FX Strategy Risk Appetite Index
index, 2008-present avg. = 0(Last: Sep 22)
100DMA
Risk appetite index
200DMA
40DMA
-50
-25
0
25
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20
TopMiddleBottom QuartileAll
Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,
Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US Credit/Debit Card Spending by ZIP Code Median Income Quartile% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Sep 13)
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20
HealthAcc/FoodGroceriesTrans/WHArts/Ent/RecGeneral/ApparelAll
Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,
Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US Credit/Debit Card Spending by Sector
% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Sep 13)
4
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday September 22, 2020
30
40
50
60
70
80
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20
20172018201920202017-19 avg
Source: RTE, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
France Energy Demand
000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Sep 21)
latest: 98% of avg
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20
Thousands
20172018201920202017-19 avg
Source: EIA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US Midwest Energy Demand
000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Sep 21)
latest: 88% of avg
22
27
32
37
42
47
52
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 11/20
20172018201920202017-19 avg
Source: TEPCO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Japan Energy Demand
000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Sep 21)
latest = 105% of avg
10
12
14
16
18
20
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20
20172018201920202017-19 avg
Source: SMARD, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Germany Energy Demand
000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Sep 20)
latest = 96% of avg.
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20
20172018201920202017-19 avg
Source: IESO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Ontario Energy Demand
000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Sep 21)
latest: 86% of avg
25
30
35
40
45
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20
2018
2019
2020
2018-19 avg
Source: Cenace, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Mexico Energy Demand
000 mw h, daily max
(Last: Sep 21)
latest: 91% of avg
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20
2018
2019
2020
2018-19 avg
Source: ONS, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Brazil Energy Demand
000 mw h, daily max (Last: Sep 21)
latest: 102% of avg
0
20
40
60
80
100
02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20
China Germany UKJapan Mexico New ZealandUS Canada
Source: Hale, Webster, Petherick, Phillips, and Kira (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government , Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Incorporates public information on 17 indicators of government responses.
Oxford Lockdown Stringency Index
100 = strictest response Lockdown Stringency Index
• Oxford University's lockdown stringency index—a useful
guideline to track containment measures around the
globe—shows the impact of the imposition and removal of
containment measures imposed in New Zealand amid a
surge in cases in the Auckland area after the country
reached 102 days without community transmission.
Germany’s restrictions remain relatively loose compared to
its peers—despite a recent uptick in contagions—which will
likely result in an outperformance of the country's economy
within the euro-bloc. As countries (possibly) enter a second
virus wave it will be interesting to note whether restrictions
are significantly ramped up.
Energy Demand
• Hourly energy demand data shows that most economies are back to seasonal demand trends
with below-average temperatures possibly leading to a decrease in energy consumption amid
lower air conditioning usage (in Ontario and the US Midwest).
• In the case of Mexico however, energy demand remains around 10% below its 2018-19 avg.
which may reflect a continued idling of economic activity, unlike ‘normal’ demand levels in
Brazil, which is expected to lead the major Latin American economies in economic
performance this year.
5
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday September 22, 2020
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20
US m. vehicles & eq.US ex mveCanada m. vehicles & eq.Canada ex mve
Source: CN, AAR, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada and US Rail Merchandise Shipments
y/y % change in carloads(Last: Sep 12)
Rail Shipments
• Weekly rail shipments data shows that
shipments in Canada and the US are still
about 5-15% lower when compared to last
year outside of brief episodes when a surge
in motor vehicle goods leads to an increase
in year-on-year terms, which would suggest
the industrial sector is still operating under
capacity.
US Steel Production
• Weekly US steel production data suggests
that activity in the manufacturing and
construction sectors has not yet significantly
improved for steel mills to notably ramp up
production, which stands at about 80% of
year-ago output compared to 60% in early
May.
Shanghai Steel Inventories
• Chinese industrial output appears to have
recovered quickly, but then stalled, as steel
inventory levels in the country are depleted
from record-highs as reflected by weekly
Shanghai storage data for both traders and
steel mills. Steel mill inventories are closer to
‘normal’ levels and showing signs of
declining of late.
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Source: Antaike, Mysteel, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Shanghai Steel Inventories
mn tonnes(Last: Sep 18)
2020traders
(LHS)
2019traders
(LHS)
mn tonnes(Last: Sep 18)
2020steel mills
(RHS)
2019steel mills
(RHS)1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Source: AISI, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US Steel Production
mn short tonnes(Last: Sep 18)
2020(Latest = 80% of 2019)
2019
Germany Truck Mileage Index
• Daily truck mileage data for Germany—a
close indicator of industrial production—
shows a sharp rebound in economic activity
in Europe’s largest economy. As of Sep 14,
miles traveled by trucks in Germany were
around their year-ago level. This series and
other data again point to the German
economy recovering at a fast pace as
lockdown measures are lifted.
Retail Traffic
• ShopperTrak and Prodco retail foot traffic
data show that retail activity has stabilised in
France and Germany after a quick rebound
through May and June. Retail traffic in the
US seems to be picking up speed in weeks
and now exceeds traffic in the UK.
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20
UK France
Germany Hong Kong
US
Source: Shopper Trak, Prodco Analytics,Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Retail Foot Traffic
y/y % change(Last: w eek of Sep 7)
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20
Source: Destatis, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Germany Truck Mileage Index
y/y % change(Last: Sep 14)
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20
Source: Bundesbank, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Bundesbank Weekly Activity Index
3m/3m % implied change in real GDP(Last: Sep 20)
Bundesbank Activity Index
• The Bundesbank’s high-frequency economic
activity index estimates that the German
economy is expanding by 4.1% on a 3m/3m
basis, as of Sep 20, up from –6.4% roughly
three months ago, reflecting the increase in
activity in the country’s industrial and
services sectors. The most recent data,
however, shows a plateauing of growth. Note
that Germany’s economy contracted by –
9.7% in Q2, compared to the Bundesbank
WEI estimate of -4.3% at end-June.
6
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday September 22, 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 11/20
Source: Flight Radar, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Flight Radar TrackedCommercial Flights Globally
000s per day(Last: Sep 21)
2020 7-dma(Latest = 57% of 2019)
2019 7-dma
TSA Checkpoint Throughput
• Daily US TSA shows that traffic through US
airports remains heavily subdued at about a
third when compared to 2019. The recent
rise in cases in the country may explain the
plateauing of US travel since early-June. As
domestic and international restrictions are
lifted we should see a more important pick-
up in travel activity.
Flight Radar Commercial Flights
• Daily flights data from Flight Radar points to
an unsurprising massive decline in air travel
(about 40% lower compared to early-2020)
owing to travel bans and other strict
restrictions on domestic and international
travel. As some countries eradicate (or
sharply limit the spread of the virus) some
travel will resume between ‘COVID-free’
nations.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20Source: TSA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
TSA Checkpoint Travelers
000s passengers(Last: Sep 21)
2020 7-dma(Latest = 31% of 2019)
2019 7-dma
OpenTable Restaurant Visits
• Daily OpenTable restaurant foot traffic data
points to a solid rebound in restaurant visits
in Germany and continued gains in Canada,
where the recent increase may reflect
caution around increasing contagions. In the
UK the end of the government’s “eat out to
help out” 50% discount scheme on Aug 31
has led to a decline in visits; the UK has also
recently imposed a 10pm curfew on the
hospitality sector. Note the jump and
subsequent decline in Canada and the US
owing to Labour Day weekend.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20
Driving
Walking
Transit
Baseline
Source: Apple, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada Apple Mobility Trends
routing requests, 7-dma(Last: Sep 20)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20
Driving
Walking
Transit
Baseline
Source: Apple, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US Apple Mobility Trends
routing requests, 7-dma(Last: Sep 20)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20
Driving
Walking
Transit
Baseline
Source: Apple, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Germany Apple Mobility Trends
routing requests, 7-dma(Last: Sep 20)
Apple Mobility Trends
• Daily Apple data tracking Apple Maps routing requests shows that driving and walking mobility in Canada, the US, and Germany now exceeds
their respective baseline levels of mid-January. However, only in Germany has there been a significant increase in transit usage that points to a
faster return to economic normality than in North America as lockdown measures are lifted; see Oxford U’s lockdown stringency index that shows
Germany’s restrictions are now significantly more relaxed than in most of its peers. The recent decline in German mobility may have reflected a
concern over increasing cases and/or a lull in mobility ahead of the school year re-start.
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20
Germany
Mexico
Australia
UK
Canada
US
Source: Opentable, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
OpenTable Restaurant Visits
y/y% change (Last: Sep 21),7-day ma
7
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday September 22, 2020
Dallas Fed State Mobility and Engagement Index, 7-day ma (Last: Sep 12)
Source: Dallas Fed, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is Jan 9, Jan-Feb avg. = 0 (difference from baseline).
WA (-39)
OR (-41)
CA (-54)
ID (-24)
NV (-39)
UT (-30)
AZ (-43)
MT (-24)
WY (-20)
CO (-40)
NM (-37)
ND (-36)
SD (-28)
NE (-35)
KS (-40)
OK (-34)
TX (-49)
MN (-51)
IA (-41)
MO (-35)
AR (-31)
LA (-34)
WI (-48)
IL (-55)
KY (-37)
TN (-32)
MS (-32)
MI (-38)
IN (-31)
OH (-36)
WV (-26)
NC (-36)
AL (-35)
PA (-40)
VA (-47)
SC (-32)
GA (-36)
NY (-45)
NJ (-55)
MD (-59)
DC (-59)
FL (-44)
VT (-38)
MA (-48)
CT (-49)
DE (-49)
ME (-29)
NH (-40)
RI (-44)
HI (-73)
AK (-27)
ALL (-43)
8
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday September 22, 2020
New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases by US State and Canadian Province, 7-day ma (Last: Sep 20)
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is March 3.
WA
OR
CA
HI
ID
NV
UT
AZ
MT
CO
NM
ND
SD
NE
KS
OK
TX
MN
IA
MO
AR
LA
KY
TN
MS
OH PA
VA
SC
GA
MD
NJ
NY MA
VT
CT
DE
NH
ME
RIWY
WV
NC
AL
DC
MI
IN
IL
WI
FL
BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS
NLPE
AK
9
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday September 22, 2020
Card Spending, Opportunity Insights Affinity Solutions, 7-day ma (Last: Sep 13)
Source: Opportunity Insights, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is Jan 24, Jan = 0 (% difference from baseline).
WA (-5.8)
OR (-10.8)
CA (-10.1)
ID (6.1)
NV (-6.1)
UT (-11.5)
AZ (-3.1)
MT (2.7)
WY (0.0)
CO (-11.1)
NM (-5.7)
ND (-6.3)
SD (-2.7)
NE (-1.7)
KS (1.6)
OK (-0.7)
TX (3.4)
MN (-3.4)
IA (-8.5)
MO (3.8)
AR (4.3)
LA (1.2)
WI (-5.2)
IL (-6.7)
KY (1.9)
TN (0.1)
MS (9.0)
MI (10.4)
IN (6.1)
OH (-1.3)
WV (8.2)
NC (-4.5)
AL (6.7)
PA (4.1)
VA (-2.1)
SC (7.2)
GA (-1.4)
NY (-8.2)
NJ (-8.7)
MD (-0.3)
DC (-13.1)
FL (1.4)
VT (-1.3)
MA (-2.2)
CT (-9.5)
DE (-5.2)
ME (-2.0)
NH (1.8)
RI (13.9)
HI (-4.6)
AK (2.1)
ALL (-2.9)
10
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday September 22, 2020
IMPORTANT NOTICE and DISCLAIMER:
This report is prepared by Scotiabank as a resource for clients of Scotiabank for information and discussion purposes only. This report should be considered a marketing
communication and has not been prepared by a member of the research department of Scotiabank, it is solely for the use of sophisticated institutional investors, and this
report does not constitute investment advice or any personal recommendation to invest in a financial instrument or “investment research” as defined by the UK Prudential
Regulation Authority or UK Financial Conduct Authority. This document has not been prepared in accordance with EU legal requirements designed to promote the independ-
ence of investment research and the information contained in this publication is not subject to any prohibition in the EU on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment
research. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions
contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from publically available sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to
their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Scotiabank or any of its employees incur any re-
sponsibility. Neither Scotiabank nor its representatives accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not, and is
not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any financial instruments and has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or
particular needs of any recipient. It is not intended to provide legal, tax, accounting or other advice. Scotiabank and/or its respective officers, directors or employees may
from time to time take positions in the products mentioned herein as principal or agent. Directors, officers or employees of Scotiabank may serve as directors of corporations
referred to herein. Scotiabank may have acted as financial advisor and/or underwriter for certain of the corporations mentioned herein and may have received and may
receive remuneration for same. This report may include forward-looking statements about the objectives and strategies of Scotiabank. Such forward-looking statements are
inherently subject to uncertainties beyond the control of Scotiabank including but not limited to economic and financial conditions globally, regulatory development in Canada
and elsewhere, technological developments and competition. The reader is cautioned that the member's actual performance could differ materially from such forward-
looking statements. Past performance or simulated past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
You should note that the manner in which you implement any of strategies set out in this report may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your
ability to bear such risks through consultation with your legal, accounting and other advisors. Information in this report regarding services and products of Scotiabank is
applicable only in jurisdictions where such services and products may lawfully be offered for sale and is void where prohibited by law. If you access this report from outside
of Canada, you are responsible for compliance with local, national and international laws. Not all products and services are available across Canada or in all countries. All
Scotiabank products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements. This report and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected
by copyright. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in
it be referred to without in each case the prior express consent of Scotiabank. Scotiabank is a Canadian chartered bank.
If you are affected by MIFID II, you must advise us in writing at [email protected].
™Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. Scotiabank, together with “Global Banking and Markets”, is a marketing name for the glob-
al corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, including,
Scotia Capital Inc. and Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., Scotiabank Europe plc, Scotiabank (Ireland) Limited - all members of the Scotia-bank Group and authorized users of the
mark. The Bank of Nova Scotia is incorporated in Canada with limited liability. Scotia Capital Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Scotia Capital
(USA) Inc. is a broker-dealer registered with the SEC and is a member of FINRA, NYSE, NFA and SIPC. The Bank of Nova Scotia is authorized and regulated by the Office
of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions in Canada. The Bank of Nova Scotia is authorized by the Prudential Regulation Authority and subject to regulation by the
Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of The Bank of Nova Scotia's regulation by the Prudential
Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Scotiabank Europe plc is authorized by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct
Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority.
To unsubscribe from receiving further Commercial Electronic Messages click this link: www.unsubscribe.gbm.scotiabank.com.