fx weekly commentary - aug 28 - sep 03 2011 elite global trading

8/4/2019 FX Weekly Commentary - Aug 28 - Sep 03 2011 Elite Global Trading

1/5

The Symposium comes to a close with Ben

Bernanke being vague on what the Fed's next

move will be. The use of terminology such as

"range of tools" may have been interpreted as

still a glimmer of hope that the Fed will move

into QE3 action in the future. The USD dollar

initial reaction Friday was strength when no

QE3 was stated, but as traders read into whatwas said, a sharp dollar sell off across major

pairs was the move into the weekend. The

markets looking for something to grab onto

for some stability. The Euro-zone still has

many financial troubles that keep the markets

on the edge of their seats. We will most likely

have some Euro risk this week posing a threat

to current Euro strength as it trades near the

months highs. We expect much volatility in the

euro pairs tomorrow with Trichet due to testify

on debt crisis before the European

Parliament's Economic Committee, in

Brussels tomorrow at 9am est.

Fundamental Outlook

Elite Global

Trading Forex Weekly CommentaryAug 28th Sep 03rd 2011 Volume 1, Issue 17

In this issue:

GBPUSD: The pound had come off it's low oflast week at 1.6208 sharply moving to

1.6370 at the close of Friday. The pullbackoff the top of 1.6620 looks to be coming to an

end and a resumption of the bullish move

towards 1.6730 may be in progress with a

higher low for the month at 1.6208 from a

daily perspective. Some consolidation may

occur prior to the continuation of this bullish

move to new highs this year. A longer term

look gives possibility of this pair approaching

1.7000 area in the next few months. For the

near term expect consolidation and small

moves in both directions, a break above

1.6620 gives stronger confirmation of the

bullish continuation.

Recommendation: Neutral Bias, with this pairmaking a sharp reversal on Friday from low at

1.6208 up to 1.6370 close, we see for the

near term a move back up to 1.6460-1.6500

very probable. Seek support at 1.6300 area,

1.6260 and 1.6208. A possible pullback to

one of these levels before move up is very

possible and likely.

UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar

GBPUSD 1

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

Swiss Pairs

2

EURUSD

EURJPY3

GBPJPY

Event Risk4

Contact Info

Disclaimer5
http://www.eliteglobaltrader.com/http://www.twitter.com/elitepipmakerhttp://www.linkedin.com/company/elite-global-tradinghttp://www.facebook.com/eliteglobaltrading


2/5

Elite Global

Trading

Aug 28th Sep 03rd 2011 Volume 1, Issue 17

AUDUSD: The Aussie has continued itsrecovery last week from this months lowsat .9925 up towards the 1.0600 level. This

pair is looking for a top prior to it's next move

down. The RBA possible looking to lower

interest rates over the next 12 months gives

confidence that this pair will make another

move lower in the long term. For now we are

looking at this pair to find tops near 1.0630,

1.0680 and 1.0730 areas. Aussie data this

week looking to be somewhat positive maygive the currency a boost up to these levels.

Recommendation: Neutral Bias, trading in themiddle of it's monthly range we see for the

short term a move up towards the 1.0700

area. Support sits at 1.0520 1.0480 1.0440

1.0366 and 1.0315.

Australian Dollar / United States Dollar

Swiss Pairs: USDCHF, GBPCHF, EURCHF allgained strength to close the week breaking

out of their congested range they were trading

in. Each pair looks to break higher for the

near term all looking very similar. Consider

when trading these pairs that Switzerland

SNB possible will take further measures to

weaken their currency through various

measures, which is what continues to push

these pairs higher. They are all coming to

some very important technical levels and

trend line resistance. If these trend lines hold

as resistance, moves to the bearish side will

be most likely. Each pair is days away from

hitting these trend line resistance areas and

this will be a critical juncture for the bulls to

continue or transition to bears for the weeks

to come. Keep a close eye on these trend line

areas for each of these Swiss pairs. A daily

close above these trend lines will give great

confidence for the bulls to continue.

Swiss FrancBased Pairs

NZDUSD: The NZDUSD is similar to theAUDUSD with its current outlook. A move to

higher resistance is very probable for the

short term. A move back to new lows is our

longer term outlook for the months to come.

For now we see this pair moving

towards .8500-.8620 for it's next move

higher.

Recommendation: Neutral, trading it themiddle of it's monthly range we see a move

to .8500-.8620 most likely for the near term

outlook. Support sits at .8350 .8315 .8270

area and .8170. Also, can't rule out top may

be in place at .8420 area, which would give

reason to start looking at short opportunities.

New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) / United States Dollar


3/5

Elite Global

Trading


EURJPY: The Yen still very strong across mostof its counter currencies. We see the

possibility of a break higher for the EURJPY in

the near term. The pair has strong resistance

at 111.60 area which is a fib level and a trend

line resistance area keeping this pair in a

downward trend view. The break of this area

will give a strong possibility of a move towards

114.00. If this area holds we will most likely

get another move down towards the lows of

108.00 area. The BOJ has only threatened to

take action with an intervention and will mostlikely we will see the YEN gain more strength

before they do take any action.

Recommendation: Neutral Bias, Short termoutlook is for a move down towards support

levels prior to break up beyond the 111.60

level. A daily close above the 111.60 gives

strong confirmation for bullish move up to

higher levels. Support levels to watch for

110.80 110.30 109.82 and 109.40. We are

watching this 111.60 level closely.

Euro / Japanese Yen

EURUSD: Trading near this months highsgives for a possible breakout above 1.4530 to

continue its move up to new highs. Trichet

testifying on Monday may bring some volatility

with a possibility of keeping this the current

congestion range in perspective for the start

of the week. If the current levels of 1.4500

and 1.4530 hold we look to see another move

down to support levels. The longer term

outlook is still bearish with the 1.4530

holding a break higher will bring Bullish

momentum in to play with a possibility of

1.5000 over the next few months.

Recommendation: Neutral Bias, the paircontinues to trade in the range below 1.4530

and we look for possible short opportunity

below this level down to support. A break

higher will put bullish opportunities into

perspective. Another move down can not be

ruled out and needs to be looked at with

caution, the pair has been in the range

between 1.4060-1.4530 for a month now and

may continue to trade within this triangle

pattern that has been created since May. With

uncertainty around the world its best to play

this pair with caution, because it tends to

change direction with sharp moves in short

periods of time. Support areas 1.4480

1.4418 1.4360 1.4308 1.4230. Sunday's

open will be interesting to see with it trading

near the highs, after Trichet's speech on

Saturday the pair may open with a gap ineither direction.

Euro / United States Dollar


4/5

Elite Global

Trading


Monday:EUR: German Prelim CPI

USD: Personal Spending 8:30am

EUR: Trichet Testifying before the European

Parliament's Economic Committee 9am

USD: Pending Home Sales 10am

NZD: Building Consents 6:45pm

Tuesday:USD: Consumer Confidence 10am

USD: FOMC Meeting Min 2pm

NZD: Business Confidence 6:45pm

Wednesday:EUR: CPI Flash Estimates 5am

USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

8:15am

CNY: Manufacturing PMI 9pm

AUD: Private Capital Expenditures 9:30pm

AUD: Retail Sales 9:30pm

Thursday:CHF: GDP 1:45am

GBP: Nationwide HPI 2am

CHF: Retail Sales 3:15am

GBP: Manufacturing PMI 4:30am

USD: ISM Manufacturing 10am

Friday:GBP: Construction PMI 4:30am

USD: Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate 8:30am

Weeks Event Risk

GBPJPY: The Pound/Yen looks similar to theEURO/YEN with it holding in a downwardchannel trading in the middle of it's monthly

range at 125.50. A move up towards 128.00

is very possible in the near term. A move back

down to lows also can not be ruled out. If the

Yen gains strength and we see the USDJPY

drop to lower levels, this pair is likely to follow.

With a mixed bias, careful calculated trades

are critical when trading the yen pairs.

Recommendation: Neutral, short termcongestion in current trading range is

expected prior to it's next major move in either

direction. We may have a higher low on the

daily at 124.47, if this holds as a higher low,we will consider a move up towards 128.00

area.

UK Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen


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Any reliance you place onsuch information is thereforestrictly at your own risk.

In no event will we be liable for any

loss or damage including without

limitation, indirect or consequential

loss or damage, or any loss or

damage whatsoever arising from

loss of data or profits arising out of,

or in connection with, the use of this

newsletter.

The information contained in this

newsletter is for general information

purposes only. The information is

provided by Elite Global Trading and

while we endeavor to keep the

information up to date and correct,

we make no representations or

warranties of any kind, express or

implied, about the completeness,

accuracy, reliability, suitability or

availability with respect to the

newsletter or the information,

products, services, or related

graphics contained on the

newsletter for any purpose.

News letter Authors:

Anthony [email protected]

James [email protected]

Tel: 786-759-0348

E-mail:

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Elite Global Trading

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fx weekly commentary - aug 28 - sep 03 2011 elite global trading

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