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8/4/2019 FX Weekly Commentary - Aug 28 - Sep 03 2011 Elite Global Trading
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The Symposium comes to a close with Ben
Bernanke being vague on what the Fed's next
move will be. The use of terminology such as
"range of tools" may have been interpreted as
still a glimmer of hope that the Fed will move
into QE3 action in the future. The USD dollar
initial reaction Friday was strength when no
QE3 was stated, but as traders read into whatwas said, a sharp dollar sell off across major
pairs was the move into the weekend. The
markets looking for something to grab onto
for some stability. The Euro-zone still has
many financial troubles that keep the markets
on the edge of their seats. We will most likely
have some Euro risk this week posing a threat
to current Euro strength as it trades near the
months highs. We expect much volatility in the
euro pairs tomorrow with Trichet due to testify
on debt crisis before the European
Parliament's Economic Committee, in
Brussels tomorrow at 9am est.
Fundamental Outlook
Elite Global
Trading Forex Weekly CommentaryAug 28th Sep 03rd 2011 Volume 1, Issue 17
In this issue:
GBPUSD: The pound had come off it's low oflast week at 1.6208 sharply moving to
1.6370 at the close of Friday. The pullbackoff the top of 1.6620 looks to be coming to an
end and a resumption of the bullish move
towards 1.6730 may be in progress with a
higher low for the month at 1.6208 from a
daily perspective. Some consolidation may
occur prior to the continuation of this bullish
move to new highs this year. A longer term
look gives possibility of this pair approaching
1.7000 area in the next few months. For the
near term expect consolidation and small
moves in both directions, a break above
1.6620 gives stronger confirmation of the
bullish continuation.
Recommendation: Neutral Bias, with this pairmaking a sharp reversal on Friday from low at
1.6208 up to 1.6370 close, we see for the
near term a move back up to 1.6460-1.6500
very probable. Seek support at 1.6300 area,
1.6260 and 1.6208. A possible pullback to
one of these levels before move up is very
possible and likely.
UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar
GBPUSD 1
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Swiss Pairs
2
EURUSD
EURJPY3
GBPJPY
Event Risk4
Contact Info
Disclaimer5
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8/4/2019 FX Weekly Commentary - Aug 28 - Sep 03 2011 Elite Global Trading
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Elite Global
Trading
Aug 28th Sep 03rd 2011 Volume 1, Issue 17
AUDUSD: The Aussie has continued itsrecovery last week from this months lowsat .9925 up towards the 1.0600 level. This
pair is looking for a top prior to it's next move
down. The RBA possible looking to lower
interest rates over the next 12 months gives
confidence that this pair will make another
move lower in the long term. For now we are
looking at this pair to find tops near 1.0630,
1.0680 and 1.0730 areas. Aussie data this
week looking to be somewhat positive maygive the currency a boost up to these levels.
Recommendation: Neutral Bias, trading in themiddle of it's monthly range we see for the
short term a move up towards the 1.0700
area. Support sits at 1.0520 1.0480 1.0440
1.0366 and 1.0315.
Australian Dollar / United States Dollar
Swiss Pairs: USDCHF, GBPCHF, EURCHF allgained strength to close the week breaking
out of their congested range they were trading
in. Each pair looks to break higher for the
near term all looking very similar. Consider
when trading these pairs that Switzerland
SNB possible will take further measures to
weaken their currency through various
measures, which is what continues to push
these pairs higher. They are all coming to
some very important technical levels and
trend line resistance. If these trend lines hold
as resistance, moves to the bearish side will
be most likely. Each pair is days away from
hitting these trend line resistance areas and
this will be a critical juncture for the bulls to
continue or transition to bears for the weeks
to come. Keep a close eye on these trend line
areas for each of these Swiss pairs. A daily
close above these trend lines will give great
confidence for the bulls to continue.
Swiss FrancBased Pairs
NZDUSD: The NZDUSD is similar to theAUDUSD with its current outlook. A move to
higher resistance is very probable for the
short term. A move back to new lows is our
longer term outlook for the months to come.
For now we see this pair moving
towards .8500-.8620 for it's next move
higher.
Recommendation: Neutral, trading it themiddle of it's monthly range we see a move
to .8500-.8620 most likely for the near term
outlook. Support sits at .8350 .8315 .8270
area and .8170. Also, can't rule out top may
be in place at .8420 area, which would give
reason to start looking at short opportunities.
New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) / United States Dollar
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8/4/2019 FX Weekly Commentary - Aug 28 - Sep 03 2011 Elite Global Trading
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Elite Global
Trading
Aug 28th Sep 03rd 2011 Volume 1, Issue 17
EURJPY: The Yen still very strong across mostof its counter currencies. We see the
possibility of a break higher for the EURJPY in
the near term. The pair has strong resistance
at 111.60 area which is a fib level and a trend
line resistance area keeping this pair in a
downward trend view. The break of this area
will give a strong possibility of a move towards
114.00. If this area holds we will most likely
get another move down towards the lows of
108.00 area. The BOJ has only threatened to
take action with an intervention and will mostlikely we will see the YEN gain more strength
before they do take any action.
Recommendation: Neutral Bias, Short termoutlook is for a move down towards support
levels prior to break up beyond the 111.60
level. A daily close above the 111.60 gives
strong confirmation for bullish move up to
higher levels. Support levels to watch for
110.80 110.30 109.82 and 109.40. We are
watching this 111.60 level closely.
Euro / Japanese Yen
EURUSD: Trading near this months highsgives for a possible breakout above 1.4530 to
continue its move up to new highs. Trichet
testifying on Monday may bring some volatility
with a possibility of keeping this the current
congestion range in perspective for the start
of the week. If the current levels of 1.4500
and 1.4530 hold we look to see another move
down to support levels. The longer term
outlook is still bearish with the 1.4530
holding a break higher will bring Bullish
momentum in to play with a possibility of
1.5000 over the next few months.
Recommendation: Neutral Bias, the paircontinues to trade in the range below 1.4530
and we look for possible short opportunity
below this level down to support. A break
higher will put bullish opportunities into
perspective. Another move down can not be
ruled out and needs to be looked at with
caution, the pair has been in the range
between 1.4060-1.4530 for a month now and
may continue to trade within this triangle
pattern that has been created since May. With
uncertainty around the world its best to play
this pair with caution, because it tends to
change direction with sharp moves in short
periods of time. Support areas 1.4480
1.4418 1.4360 1.4308 1.4230. Sunday's
open will be interesting to see with it trading
near the highs, after Trichet's speech on
Saturday the pair may open with a gap ineither direction.
Euro / United States Dollar
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8/4/2019 FX Weekly Commentary - Aug 28 - Sep 03 2011 Elite Global Trading
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Elite Global
Trading
Aug 28th Sep 03rd 2011 Volume 1, Issue 17
Monday:EUR: German Prelim CPI
USD: Personal Spending 8:30am
EUR: Trichet Testifying before the European
Parliament's Economic Committee 9am
USD: Pending Home Sales 10am
NZD: Building Consents 6:45pm
Tuesday:USD: Consumer Confidence 10am
USD: FOMC Meeting Min 2pm
NZD: Business Confidence 6:45pm
Wednesday:EUR: CPI Flash Estimates 5am
USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
8:15am
CNY: Manufacturing PMI 9pm
AUD: Private Capital Expenditures 9:30pm
AUD: Retail Sales 9:30pm
Thursday:CHF: GDP 1:45am
GBP: Nationwide HPI 2am
CHF: Retail Sales 3:15am
GBP: Manufacturing PMI 4:30am
USD: ISM Manufacturing 10am
Friday:GBP: Construction PMI 4:30am
USD: Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate 8:30am
Weeks Event Risk
GBPJPY: The Pound/Yen looks similar to theEURO/YEN with it holding in a downwardchannel trading in the middle of it's monthly
range at 125.50. A move up towards 128.00
is very possible in the near term. A move back
down to lows also can not be ruled out. If the
Yen gains strength and we see the USDJPY
drop to lower levels, this pair is likely to follow.
With a mixed bias, careful calculated trades
are critical when trading the yen pairs.
Recommendation: Neutral, short termcongestion in current trading range is
expected prior to it's next major move in either
direction. We may have a higher low on the
daily at 124.47, if this holds as a higher low,we will consider a move up towards 128.00
area.
UK Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen
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8/4/2019 FX Weekly Commentary - Aug 28 - Sep 03 2011 Elite Global Trading
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Any reliance you place onsuch information is thereforestrictly at your own risk.
In no event will we be liable for any
loss or damage including without
limitation, indirect or consequential
loss or damage, or any loss or
damage whatsoever arising from
loss of data or profits arising out of,
or in connection with, the use of this
newsletter.
The information contained in this
newsletter is for general information
purposes only. The information is
provided by Elite Global Trading and
while we endeavor to keep the
information up to date and correct,
we make no representations or
warranties of any kind, express or
implied, about the completeness,
accuracy, reliability, suitability or
availability with respect to the
newsletter or the information,
products, services, or related
graphics contained on the
newsletter for any purpose.
News letter Authors:
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James [email protected]
Tel: 786-759-0348
E-mail:
Elite Global Trading
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