Fundamentals of Enrolment ProjectionsFundamentals of Enrolment Projections

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Module E5 - Session 1

Mekong Institute & UNESCO Regional Office-Bangkok

Prepared by the Education Policy and Reform UnitUNESCO Bangkok

February 2009

Training Course on “Training of Trainers from the Greater Mekong Sub-

Region on Decentralized Education Planning in the Context of Public Sector Management Reform”

23 February – 6 March 2009; Khon Kaen, Thailand

Enrolment ProjectionProjection is the process of obtaining an estimate (or

estimates) based on present situation, future goals and targets, and past trends

Projecting future enrolment is one of the most important tasks for education planners and managers at all levels

Enrolment for the coming school year can be projected in several ways:using current enrolmentextrapolation based on the previous years’ enrolment

trendsumming up a portion of current year’s enrolment in the

grade (as repeating students) and another portion from the immediately lower grade (as promoting students),

etc.

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Simulation ModelsFuture enrolment cannot be predicted with 100%

accuracy due to several factors impacting on schooling.

Those factors are both internal (pupil, teacher, school, teaching-learning materials, assessment, …) and external (health, social, economical, cultural, migration, …)

Several projections are to be made to select one from an iterative process of target setting

The process of making projections based on different, but plausible, targets and assumptions is known as “simulation”

Simulation models are the common tools in studying education alternatives.

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Analysis and Projection Model Analysis and Projection (ANPRO) Model is one of the

“simulation models” and is designed for projecting:enrolment and graduates,resources needed,

human resources: teachers, principals and other staff material resources: teaching-learning materials,

textbooks… facilities and equipment: classes, classrooms, schools, … financial resources: recurrent expenditures (salaries ,

utilities, maintenance) , and capital expenditures such as construction, major repairs, etc…

andavailable resources and possible resource gaps

ANPRO uses cohort-component method to project enrolment

Other resources needed are projected based on the projected future enrolment in schools, specifically public schools.

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Cohort-Component Method (1)Let us assume that our primary education system has 5

grades, and that the official school entrance age is 6.Entry point to formal general education system is normally

the first grade of primary education, that is Grade 1, and

a group of pupils (students) who entered the education system during the same year is called “a pupil cohort”

From Grade 1, the cohort will proceed to the higher grades, and ultimately, they will conclude the primary school as “primary school graduates (successful completers)” or “dropouts”

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newintake

Population Aged 6

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5

enrolmentPRIMARY SCHOOL

Graduates

DROPOUTS

Cohort-Component Method (2)Not all pupils (or enrolment) in Grade 1 are “new entrants”

or “new intake” of the current school yearSome of them have already attended, partly or fully, during

the previous school years but are still remain in Grade 1 in this school year

Those pupils are known as “repeaters” (or repeating students)

Similarly, not all pupils in Grade 2 studied in Grade 1 during previous school yearmost of them are promoted from previous year’s Grade 1

enrolment, anda smaller group is “repeaters” from previous year’s Grade 2

enrolmentPupils promoted to Grade 2 from the previous year’s Grade

1 enrolment are called “promotees”.“promotees”.Slide 6

Cohort-Component Method (3)Once a child entered the education system (primary Grade 1), he/she

becomes a “pupil” and has three destinies for the coming year:

(1) a higher grade (is promoted to Grade 2)(2) the same grade (repeats in Grade 1)(3) out of school (drops out during, or at the end of school year)

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PopulationAged 62005/06 Grade 1Grade 1

PopulationAged 6

(1) Promotees

Grade 1 Grade 2

(3) Dropout

(2) Repeaters

Repeaters

2006/07

Newintake

Newintake

Grade 2

Repeaters

Repeaters

Dropout

Cohort-Component Method (4)Grade 1 enrolment in year 2005/06 has two components:

New intake in 05/06 (from school age population), and Repeaters (from the same grade, Grade 1 in 2004/05)

Grade 1 enrolment in year 2006/07 also has two components: New intake in 06/07 (from school age population), and Repeaters (from the same grade, Grade 1 in 2005/06)

Thus, Grade 1 enrolment in coming year, 2007/08 can be estimated through:(a) how many pupils will enter into Grade 1 in 07/08 from the

school-age population, and(b) how many pupils will repeat in 07/08 from the current year

Grade 1 enrolment

Grade 1 enrolment in 2007/08 is:

Grade 1 enrolment = New intake + Repeaters from in 2007/08 in 2007/08 2006/07

cohortSlide 8

Cohort-Component Method (5)Similarly, the Grade 2 enrolment also has two components:

Promotees (from the lower grade, Grade 1), andRepeaters (from the same grade, Grade 2)

Grade 2 enrolment in the next year is estimated through:(a) number of pupils who will be promoted from the current

year Grade 1 enrolment, and

(b) number of pupils who will repeat the current year Grade 2 enrolment

“How many children will enter as new intake?”;“How many pupils will be promoted?” and“How many pupils will repeat?” should be estimated from the past behavior of the cohort

The technique of estimating each component using the common experience of the entire cohort is known as“cohort-component method”

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Cohort-Component Method (6)

Most of those who entered Grade 1 for the first time (the new intake or entrants) are from the population at the school entrance age (say 6-year olds)

If there are XX number of children aged 6 in the catchment area of a primary school, and the school received YY number of new entrants, the apparent intake rate (AIRAIR) can be calculated as:

YAIR = ---- x 100

XAIR is also known as Gross Intake Rate (GIR) or Gross

Admission Rate (GAR)

From the above equation, number of new entrants, YY is: Y = AIR x X

Therefore, number of new entrants can be estimated by multiplying the “apparent intake rate” with “population at the school entrance age”

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Cohort-Component Method (7)Since the repeaters in 2006/07 are coming from the 2005/06

cohort (of Grade 1 enrolment), the “Grade 1 repetition rate for 2005/06” is defined as:

No. of Repeaters in 2006/07Repetition rate (2005/2006) = ---------------------------------------- x 100

Total enrolment in 2005/06For example:

What are the AIR in 2006/07, percentage of repeaters in Grade 1 in 2006/07, and Grade 1 repetition rate for 2005/06?

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2005/06 120 110

100Pop. Aged 6

96 Promotees

123 ?

18 Repeaters10 Repeaters

2006/07 105 Newintake

Grade 1 Grade 2

Cohort-Component Method (8) In this example, Grade 1 enrolment in 2006/07 school year is

123. Of them:18 are repeaters (who were in Grade 1 during 05/06)

and105 are new intake (who have never been to school)

Again, there are 100 children aged 6 in the school catchment area, and thus, the “apparent intake rate for 2006/07” is 105%(i.e., 105 / 100 x 100)

Out of 123 Grade 1 enrolment in 2006/07, 18 are repeaters and percentage of repeaters is 14.6% (i.e., 18 / 123 x 100)

Out of 120 Grade 1 enrolment in 2005/06, 18 pupils are repeating in Grade 1 in 2006/07 school year

Therefore, Grade 1 repetition rate for the 2005/06 cohort is 15% (i.e., 18 / 120 x 100), and

Grade 2 repetition rate for 2005/06 is 9.1% (i.e., 10 / 110 x 100)

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Cohort-Component Method (9)Of 120 Grade 1 enrolment in 2005/06 school year, 96 were

promoted to Grade 2 in 2006/07 school yearTherefore, percentage of pupils promoted from the 2005/06

Grade 1 cohort is, 80% and it is known as “promotion rate” (i.e., 96 / 120 x 100)

In this example, 80% of the 2005/06 Grade 1 cohort was promoted to Grade 2, and 15% is repeating in Grade 1

Where are the remaining 5% or 6 pupils (120 – 96 – 18) from 2005/06 cohort?The remaining 6 pupils are no longer in school (or

they have dropped out while studying in Grade 1)Thus, the dropout rate for the 2005/06 Grade 1 cohort is 5%

(i.e., 6 /120 * 100)The dropout rate can also be obtained by subtracting

promotion rate and repetition rate from 100%, that is,dropout rate = 100% - promotion rate – repetition rate

= 100% - 80% - 15% = 5%

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Cohort-Component Method (10)Promotion rate is denoted by “pp”, repetition rate is

denoted by “rr”, and dropout rate is denoted by “dd”, and the three rates are known as ““student flow rates””

As seen in the example, the famous relationship among the three student flow rates is:

Therefore, if two out of three student flow rates are known, the remaining one can be calculated from the above equation

We must be careful not to independently set values for all all threethree while setting targets on student flow rates

That is, targets on any two out of three student flow rates must be set meaningfully

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p + r + d = 100 %

Cohort-Component Method (11)If the “promotion rate” for Grade 1 in 2005/06 school year is

known, the number of “promotees” in Grade 2 in 2006/07 can be calculated as:promotees = G1 enrolment 05/06 x G1 promotion rate 05/06 (2006/07) = 120 x 80% = 96 pupils

Similarly, from the repetition rate for Grade 2 in 2005/06 (9.1%), and , Grade 2 enrolment in 2005/06 (110), one could estimate number of repeaters in Grade 2 in 2006/07 school year as:repeaters = G2 enrolment 05/06 x G2 repetition rate 05/06 (2006/07) = 110 x 9.1% = 10 pupils

Therefore, total Grade 2 enrolment in 2006/07 school year becomes:

G2 enrolment 06/07 = promotees in G2 + repeaters in G2

= 96 + 10 = 106 pupils Slide 15

Cohort-Component Method (12)Lets assume that there are 98 children aged 6 in the catchment

area of the school and the AIR is targeted at 100% in 2007/08How many students would the school have in Grade 1 and

Grade 2 in 2007/08 school year, if the student flow rates in 2006/07 are same as in 2005/06?

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2007/08

98 children aged 6

Grade 1 Grade 2

2006/07 enrolment

123

New Intake ???enrolment ???

Repeaters ??

enrolment

106

Promotees ???enrolment ???

Repeaters ??

r = 9.1%

AIR = 100%

p = 80%r = 15%

Cohort-Component Method (13)

And, what would be the enrolment in Grade 1 and Grade 2 in 2007/08 school year, if the promotion and repetition rates for the Grade 1 in 2006/07 become 87% and 10%?

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2007/08

98 children aged 6

Grade 1 Grade 2

2006/07 enrolment

123

New Intake 98enrolment 116

Repeaters 18

enrolment

106

Promotees 98enrolment 108

Repeaters 10

r = 9.1%

AIR = 100%

p = 80%r = 15%

Enrolment in Grade 1

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Let us recapitulate some calculation made in this presentation: Grade 1 PopulationNew Intake   = Aged 6 x Apparent Intake Rate (AIR) in 2006/07 in 2006

Repeaters from   Grade 1 2005/06 G1 = enrolment x G1 Repetition Rate enrolment in 2005/06G1 enrolment  = New Intake + Repeaters in 2006/07 in 2006/07 from 2005/06 G1

Enrolment in Grade 2

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Enrolment Promotees Repeaters Grade 2 = from 2005/06 + from 2005/06 (2006/07) Grade 1 Grade 2

Promotees Grade 1 Grade 1from 2005/06 = enrolment x Promotion Rate Grade 1 (2005/06) (2005/06)

Repeaters Grade 2 Grade 2 from 2005/06 = enrolment x Repetition Rate Grade 2 (2005/06) (2005/06)

Enrolment in Other Grades

Such a simple calculation procedure is applied in all ANPRO Models for enrolment projection!

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Enrolment Promotees from Repeaters from 2006/07 = 2005/06 + 2005/06 Grade i Grade (i-1) Grade (i)

Promotees from Grade (i-1) Grade (i-1) 2005/06 = enrolment x Promotion Rate Grade (i-1) (2005/06) (2005/06)

Repeaters Grade (i) Grade (i) from = enrolment x Repetition Rate 2005/06 2005/06 2005/06

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How to Calculate Student Flow: A Working Example

Let us assume that our primary education level has 6 grades (Grade 1 to grade 6) and the following flow rates remain the same for the coming years:

Then, we can calculate the (selected) measure of efficiency for the primary education as following:

Provincial Education Planning, UNESCO-Bangkok & MOE-Thailand (August 2007) Slide 22

Slide 23

Selected Measures of Internal Efficiency