Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia

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Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia. Zane Cunska Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies / University of Latvia. Presentation in Eurostat/UNECE Work SessionApril 29 2010 / Lisbon. Content. Tertiary education in Latvia: facts and situation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in LatviaZane Cunska Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies / University of Latvia Presentation in Eurostat/UNECE Work SessionApril 29 2010 / LisbonContentTertiary education in Latvia: facts and situationProjection methodsScenariosStable enrollment ratio scenarioGlobal education trend scenarioCrisis scenarioResultsConclusions Population (15-24y) projections, LVSource: EUROPOP2008, EutostatStudent population in LVIn 2009 for the first time Latvia has experienced significant fall In total enrolment: : minus 10,2%; In first year undergraduate: minus 26% in comparison to previous year Age-specific student ratios in LV (1998-2010)MethodsEnrolment-ratio methodAge-specific enrolment ratio Ext=rxt Txt , based onEurostat population projections Txt Ratio development trends rxtThree development scenariosStable enrollment ratioGlobal education trendCrisisScenarios Stable enrolment ratioTertiary education developing smoothly into the future, only changes arise from the differences in cohort size. Assumes:proportion of students in the respective overall age cohort will continue to change in the same average speed and direction as over the previous period (1998-2010)Transition rates and dropout rates will change at an average annual rate of change experienced in the observation period ln(Y/Y(t-1)) = alpha/trend i.e., extrapolate the observed trends over the years 1998-2010, using the OLS and putting a constraint that the growth converges to zero when time converges to infinity Scenarios Stable enrolment ratioAll trends positive or virtually constant Growth in ratio of younger students (20-23) and non-traditional student age group (29-39)Proportions of students in 24-28 and 40-plus age groups remain stable at 2010 levelObserved (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) age-year specific enrolment ratiosScenarios Stable enrolment ratioTotal number of students in tertiary education will decrease from 113 thousands in 2010 to 92 thousands in 2020 (minus 20%)Most severe decline in the 18-24 years student groups by 44%Proportion of traditional age students will decrease from 64% in 2010 to 44% in 2020,Size of older age student groups (29-39 and 40 plus) will remain stableShare of older age students (over 29) will increase from 24% to 44% Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) number of students in the tertiary education Scenarios Global education trendTakes into account the schooling pattern across European countries and assumes that the lifestyle and study patterns in Latvia and EU converge. Assumes: The 2011-2020 enrolment ratio structure for Latvia is converge to that of EU-27 ln(Y/Tt-1) = B(Yt-1-Yav)i.e., the age-specific enrolment rates Y will converge to the EU-27 average, the speed being dependent on the size of the difference between the rate at t-1 and Yav Scenarios Global education trendThe enrolment ratios in EU-27 have been gradually raising in period 1998-2005, and stabilized since 2005 They are generally lower that Latvian 2010 rates Consequently, all but 25 and 26 year-old rate trends are negative Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2100) age-year specific enrolment ratiosScenarios Global education trendDecline in enrolment at all ages - minus 38% compared to 2010Total enrolment in 2020 fall to 1998 level (70 thousand students) More than 50% reduction in traditional age student numbers (from 72 to 35 thousands). 13% fall (from 17 to 15 thousands) in the older age (29 plus) students Student population will be older and the proportion of non-traditional students (older than 25) in the total student population will increase to 50% in contrast to 36% in 2010Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) number of students in the tertiary education Scenarios - CrisisDesigned to capture the effects, that do not follow from statistics, but can be concluded from literature on historical development in other countries, Subjective - authors and expert opinions based scenarioBroad age groupsAssumes: AgeAssumption17-24Enrolment rate is at the pre-crisis level (2008) for 3 years, converges to EU-27 average after 2013. 25-28Enrolment rate increases by 15% compared to 2008 for following 3 years, converges to EU-27 average after 2013. 29 plusEnrolment rate remains constant over following 3 years, converges to EU-27 average after 2013. Scenarios - CrisisCrisis would have a short-term positive impact on enrolment rates that will slightly increase above the 2010 level and stay there between 2011 and 2013Rise in the 25-28 age student enrolment After the 2013 enrolment rates fall approaching the EU-27 level Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) age-year specific enrolment ratios Scenarios - CrisisTotal number of students in the period 2011-2013 would increase compared to 2009 and 2010 level The total number of young students would not be as high as before The 25-28 years and 29 plus student group is expected to remain roughly the same size throughout the entire period 2000-2020 Total number of students in 2020 will fall to 81 thousands, less than half (47%) of the students being in the traditional age Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) number of students in the tertiary education SummaryTotal number of students in tertiary education according to three alternative scenarios 199820102020Actual enrolmentSERGETCRITotal70233112555921526943480841Proportions of age groups in total number of students 17-2473%64%44%50%47%25-2816%13%12%16%17%29 plus11%24%44%33%36%ConclusionsHE system in front of big changesInexperienced situationUnder any development scenario the total enrolment is very likely to fall (decrease by 18-38%)The big number of higher education institutions cannot be sustained Foreign students are unlikely to fully compensate for decrease of cohortsThank you! Minus 40% compared to 2010. Total population expected to decrease from 2.2 to 1.8m inhabitants*No of students per capita similar to US, Canada, Finland *

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