•Daily Operations Briefing Wednesday, July 2, 2014

8:30 a.m. EDT

Significant Activity: July 1 – July 2 Significant Events:

• TS Arthur

• Butts Fire – California (FEMA-5057-FMAG Approved July 1)

Tropical Activity:

• Atlantic – TS Arthur

• Eastern Pacific – TS Douglas; Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida

• Central Pacific – No tropical cyclones expected through late Thursday night

• West Pacific – Invest 91W (Medium)

Significant Weather:

• Rain and thunderstorms – Eastern U.S.

• Flash flooding possible – Mid-Atlantic Region

• Space Weather – Past 24 hours: R1 / Next 24 hours: no activity

• Elevated Fire Weather Areas/Isolated Dry Thunderstorms: California, Central Great Basin & the Southwest

• Red Flag Warnings: CA, OR & UT

Earthquakes: None

FEMA Readiness: RIV RRCC – Level II (Day) & Enhanced Watch (Night); RIII RWC – Enhanced Watch (24/7)

Declaration Activity: Amendment #3 FEMA-4173-DR-Indiana

Atlantic – Tropical Storm Arthur As of 8:00 a.m. EDT

• Located 100 miles ENE of Cape Canaveral, FL

• Maximum sustained winds 60 mph; higher gusts

• Motion N at 6 mph; turn toward NNE forecast tonight

• Expected to become a Hurricane by Thursday

• Hurricane Watch in effect for Bogue/Oregon Inlet & Pamlico Sound, NC

• Tropical Storm Watch East Coast FL, Santee River SC to Bogue Inlet NC, NC &

VA borders, and eastern Albemarle Sound

• Tropical Storm Force winds extend outward 80 miles

Response:

• FEMA Region IV at Level II (7am-7pm daily); Enhanced Watch (7pm-7am)

• IMAT deployed to NC; LNOs deployed to NC and SC EOCs

• SC EOC is OPCON 4 (Monitoring)

• NC EOC activating to Level III (Partial) at 8:00 a.m. on Thursday

• FEMA Region III RWC is at Enhanced Watch (24/7)

• Issued an Advisory Notification to personnel

• VA SEOC activated at Increased Readiness/Level III; all other SEOCs

remain at Normal Operations

• FEMA HQs:

• NRCC activating to Level II on Thursday at 8:00 a.m. (24/7)

• ISB Delta Cache Recovery Team deployed to Selma, AL

Tropical Outlook – Atlantic

Tropical Outlook – Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific – Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida (Final)

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT

• Located 170 miles SSE of Manzanillo, Mexico

• Maximum sustained winds near 30 mph with higher gusts

• Moving SE near 3 mph

• Remnant low is expected to dissipate in a couple of days

• No coastal watches or warnings in effect

• National Hurricane Center has issued the final public advisory

Eastern Pacific – Tropical Storm Douglas

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT

• Located 455 miles WSW of Baja California, Mexico

• Maximum sustained winds 45 mph with higher gusts

• Moving NW at 3 mph

• Some weakening during the next 48 hours

• Likely to become a Tropical Depression tonight or Thursday

• Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles

• No coastal watches or warnings in effect

Tropical Outlook – Central Pacific

Western Pacific – Invest 91W

As of 8:00 p.m. EDT

• Located 400 miles SSE of Guam

• Moving toward the NW

• Maximum sustained winds 20 mph

• Medium potential for Tropical Cyclone development

next 24 hours

• Guam EOC remains at Normal Operations

• FEMA Region IX remains at Watch/Steady State

• No unmet needs or requests for FEMA assistance

Butts Fire – California Fire

Name Location

Acres

burned

%

Contained

Est. Full

Containment FMAG

Structures Lost /

Threatened

Fatalities /

Injuries

Butts Fire

Butts Canyon Road,

Pope Valley (Napa

County)

2,700

30%

N/A FEMA-5057-FM-CA 0 / 202 0 / 0

Situation

• Began July 1 at 3:00 p.m. EDT; Butts Canyon Rd, Pope Valley, 10 miles SE of

Middleton Napa County

• Mandatory evacuation for 200 homes and voluntary evacuations for 500 homes

• Road closures are in effect (impacting 200 homes & 12 residences)

• 1 shelter with 30 occupants and 2 evacuation centers are open

Response

• FMAG requested and approved July 1

• Local Type III IMT will transition to a State Type I IMT at 3:00 p.m. EDT

• State EOC remains at normal operations

• FEMA Region IX is at Watch/Steady State

• No additional requests for FEMA assistance

Napa County

Severe Weather – Midwest (Final) June 30-July 1

• Strong storms moved across Middle Missouri Valley & Midwest overnight

• Strong winds, large hail & possible tornadoes reported

Impacts:

• Initial reports show limited - minor/moderate damage to homes/business

• Significant/widespread impact - downed trees/power lines resulted in power outages

▲217k (down from peak of 560k) customers w/out power in Region V (DOE EAGLE-I; 8:00 am EDT)

▲MI: 100k (down from peak of 229k)

▲ IL: 90k (down from peak of 281k)

▲Nine injuries reported (IA, WI, IL); one unconfirmed fatality in IA

▲4 shelters open with 7 occupants

Response:

• IA Governor issued disaster proclamation for five counties

• FEMA Region V remains at Level III for previous severe weather/flooding

• FEMA Region VII remains at Watch/Steady State

• State EOCs in MI & MN remain partially activated due to previous storm events

• All other State EOCs remain at Normal Ops

• No unmet needs or shortfalls; no requests for FEMA assistance

16

Declaration Requests in Process Requests

APPROVED (since last report)

Requests DENIED

(since last report)

1 Date Requested 0 0

NY – DR Severe Storms and Flooding June 16, 2014

Disaster Requests & Declarations

Disaster Amendments

Amendment Effective Date Action

Amendment No. 3

FEMA-4173-DR-IN July 1, 2014 Adds Lake County for PA

Open Field Offices as of July 1, 2014

Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments

Region State /

Location Event IA/PA

Number of Counties Start – End

Requested Complete

V MN Severe Storms & Flooding

June 11 PA

49 counties &

1 tribe 0 7/1 – TBD

VII IA Flooding

June 13 & continuing PA 26 0 6/27 – TBD

VII NE Severe Weather

June 13-21

IA 5 5 6/25 – 6/26

PA 12 2 6/30 – TBD

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/national_forecast/natfcst.php

National Weather Forecast

Day 2

Day 1

Day 1 Day 1

Active Watches/Warnings

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

Precipitation Forecast – 3 Day

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

http://water.weather.gov/ahp

s2/forecasts.php?wfo=dvn

River Forecast

http://water.weather.gov/ahp

s2/forecasts.php?wfo=mpx

Convective Outlook, Days 1

Day 1 Day 2

Day 3

Day 3-8

Critical Fire Weather Areas – Days 1-8

Day 1 Day 2

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats_ie.php

Hazard Outlook: July 4 – 8

Space Weather Summary

July 2nd, 2014 Past 48 Hours Current

Solar Flare Radio Blackouts (R Scale) R1 (Minor) None

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale) None None

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale) None None

Summary of Recent Activity/Outlook:

• Isolated R1 (Minor) activity (single event from region 2106)

• Regions 2106, 2108 showing some growth; 2104, 2107 fairly stable

• Threat of severe to extreme activity low at this time but some potential

for growth/increasing activity depending on region development

Space Weather Summary

Bob Rutledge

SWPC

July 2nd, 2014

2104

2106

2107

2102

2108

FEMA Readiness – Deployable Teams/Assets

Deployable Teams/Assets

Resource Status Total Available Partially

Available

Not

Available

Detailed

Deployed

Activated

Comments Rating Criterion

FCO 39 8 21% 0 1 30

***There is only 1 Type-3 FCO available*** OFDC Readiness:

FCO Green Yellow Red

Type 1 3+ 2 1

Type 2 4+ 3 2

Type 3 4 3 2

FDRC 3 2 1 FDRC

10 4 40% 0 0 6

US&R

28 27 96% 0 1 0 • NM-TF1 (Red for personnel shortages)

• Green = Available/FMC

• Yellow = Available/PMC

• Red = Out-of-Service

• Blue = Assigned/Deployed

National IMAT

3 2 67% 0 0 1 • National-IMAT West deployed to DC (NRCC)

• Green: 3 avail

• Yellow: 1-2 avail

• Red: 0 avail (Individual N-IMAT red if

50% of Section Chiefs and/or Team

Leader is unavailable for deployment.)

Regional

IMAT

13 5 38% 4 2 2

Deployed:

• Region IV - NC

• Region V - MN

Partially Mission Capable (PMC):

• Region II, III, VI (1) & VI (2 )

Not Mission Capable (NMC):

• Region VII, IX for Personnel shortages

• Green: 7 or more avail

• Yellow: 4 - 6 teams available

• Red: > 8 teams deployed/unavailable

R-IMAT also red if TL Ops/Log Chief is

unavailable and has no qualified

replacement.

MCOV

55 47 85% 0 8 0

• Green = 80 – 100% avail

• Yellow = 60 – 79% avail

• Red = 59% or below avail

• Readiness remains 95%

FEMA Readiness – National/Regional Teams

National/Regional Teams

Resource Status Total Available Partially

Available

Not

Available

Deployed/

Activated Comments Rating Criterion

NWC

5 5 100% 0 0 24/7 Enhanced Watch (dayshift)

• Green = FMC

• Yellow = PMC

• Red = NMC

NRCC

2 337 87% 0 50 Not Activated

HLT

1 N/A N/A 0 1 Activated Activated

DEST

Not Activated

RRCCs

10 8 80% 0 0 2 Region V: Level III (day only)

Region IV: Level II (day only)

RWCs/MOCs

10 10 100% 0 0 24/7 Region IV RWC: Enhanced Watch

(night only)