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•Daily Operations Briefing Wednesday, October 2, 2013

8:30 a.m. EDT

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Significant Activity: Oct 1 – 2 Significant Events: None

Tropical Activity:

• Atlantic – Tropical Storm Jerry; Area 1 (Medium 40%)

• Eastern Pacific – Area 1 (Low 10%)

• Central Pacific – No tropical cyclones expected through Thursday night

• Western Pacific – No tropical activity threatening U.S. territories

Significant Weather:

• Showers & thunderstorms – Lower Mississippi Valley into Upper Mississippi Valley

• Critical Fire Weather Areas: None

• Red Flag Warnings: CA & NV

• Space Weather: Moderate/G2 geomagnetic & moderate/S2 solar radiation storms predicted next 24 hours

Earthquake Activity: No significant activity

Declaration Activity:

• Major Disaster Declaration approved for Pennsylvania

• Amendment #6 to FEMA-4145-DR-CO

• Amendment #3 to FEMA-3365-EM-CO

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Updates at 2:00 am/pm and 8:00 am/pm EDT

Atlantic – Tropical Outlook

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Atlantic – Tropical Storm Jerry

As of 8:00 a.m. EDT

• Located 1,275 miles E of Bermuda

• Moving toward the W near 1 mph

• A northward to northeastward motion is expected later today;

with a faster motion toward the northeast expected by Thursday

• Max sustained winds 40 mph

• Tropical storm-force winds extend 45 miles

• Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours

• No coastal watches or warnings are in effect

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Atlantic – Area 1 (Invest 97L)

As of 8:00 a.m. EDT

• Area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean

sea continues to produce disorganized showers and

thunderstorms

• Disturbance is expected to move NW to NNW of Yucatan

Peninsula later today

• Some development of this disturbance is possible during

the next couple of days

• Strong upper level winds are likely to limit development

as the system approaches the northern Gulf of Mexico

• Probability of tropical cyclone development:

• Next 48 hours: Medium chance (40%)

• Next 5 days: Medium chance (50%)

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

This product is updated at approximately 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and

11 PM PDT from May 15 to November 30. Special outlooks may be

issued as conditions warrant.

Eastern Pacific – Tropical Outlook

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Eastern – Area 1

As of 8:00 a.m. EDT

• Area of low pressure located about 400 miles SSW of

Manzanillo, Mexico

• System is producing disorganized shower and

thunderstorm activity

• Some gradual development of this system is possible

during the next several days

• Moving westward at 10 mph

• Probability of tropical cyclone development:

• Next 48 hours: low chance (10%)

• Next 5 days: low chance (20%)

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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/

This product is updated at approximately 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and

11 PM PDT from May 15 to November 30. Special outlooks may be

issued as conditions warrant.

Central Pacific – Tropical Outlook

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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.pdf

National Weather Forecast

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Active Watches/Warnings

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-3.shtml

Precipitation Forecast – 3 Day

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

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http://water.weather.gov/ahps/forecasts.php?current_color=flood&current_type=all&fcst_t

ype=fcst&conus_map=d_map

River Forecast – 7 Day

Hydrograph Page for bdyn1

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Convective Outlooks Days 1 – 3

Day 1 Day 2

Day 3

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Critical Fire Weather Areas Days 1 – 8

Day 1 Day 2

Day 3-8

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats_ie.php

Hazard Outlook: Oct 4 – 8

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UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Space Weather Summary

October 2nd, 2013 Past 48 Hours Current

Solar Flare Radio Blackouts (R Scale) None None

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale) S2 (Moderate) None

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale) G2 (Moderate) G1 (Minor)

Summary of Recent Activity/Outlook:

• Large filament eruption end-of-day September 29th

• No significant R Scale activity associated with this event

• S Scale activity as a result but now in decay, peaked at S2 (Moderate)

• G Scale activity commenced overnight, G2 (Moderate) observed thus far

• Threat of subsequent activity very low given lack of significant sunspots

Space Weather Summary

Bob Rutledge

SWPC

October 2nd, 2013

1850

1854

1855

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UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Storm Progress/Summary of Impacts

Bob Rutledge

SWPC

October 2nd, 2013

1834

1835

1836

1837

Taken by Rocky Raybell on October 1, 2013 @ Keller, Washington

Summary of Impacts:

• GIC (Induced Currents) observed in northern tier states

• High Latitude/Polar HF Communication Issues

• Aurora visible from northern tier of the Lower 48

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Declaration Requests in Process Requests

APPROVED (since last report)

Requests DENIED

(since last report)

1 Date Requested 1

PA – DR (Appeal) Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding September 6, 2013

October 1, 2013

KS – DR Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding September 25, 2013

Disaster Requests & Declarations

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Major Disaster Declaration – Pennsylvania

FEMA-4149-DR-PA

• Major Disaster Declaration approved October 1, 2013

• For Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding

• During the period June 26 to July 11, 2013

• Provides:

• Public Assistance for 10 counties

• Hazard Mitigation for the Commonwealth

• FCO is Donald L. Keldsen

= Declared Counties

Pennsylvania

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Disaster Amendments

A B C D E F G

Debris Removal Emergency Protective

Measures Road Systems & Bridges Water Control Facilities Public Buildings & Contents Public Utilities Parks, Recreational, & Other

Amendment Effective Date Action

Amendment #3 to

FEMA-3365-EM-CO September 30, 2013 • Closes incident period effective September 30, 2013

Amendment #6 to

FEMA-4145-DR-CO October 1, 2013

• Adds 6 counties for PA

• Adds 2 counties for PA [Categories C-G]

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Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments

Region State /

Location Event IA/PA

Number of Counties Start – End

Requested Complete

VI NM Severe Storms, Flooding & Mudslides

September 9-23, 2013 IA 9 9 9/25 – 9/30

VIII CO Flooding

September 11, 2013 & Continuing

IA 6 (-2) 6 9/18 -9/26

PA 15 15 9/23 – 9/27

VIII UT Flooding

September 7, 2013 PA

8 counties &

1 tribe

2 counties &

1 tribe 9/25 – 10/4

IX CA Rim Fire

August-September 2013 PA 5 0 9/30-TBD

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Open Field Offices as of October 2, 2013

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Deployed Detailed Available Not Available Total

29 1 9 1 40

OFDC Cadre Member Status

Total Available Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4

10* 1 5 2 1

As of: 09/30/2013

* All Type 1 FCOs are available unless deployed to a Level 1 event

Deployed Available Pending Hire On Board Positions

8 1 1 9 10

Federal Coordinating Officer

Federal Disaster Recovery Coordinator

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MCOV Fleet / Deployment Status

Fully Mission Capable 51 Partially Mission Capable 0 Non-Mission Capable 4 Total Not Deployed 34

MCOV FLEET STATUS MCOV DISASTER SUPPORT DEPLOYMENTS

Location Units

Assigned Available

FMC Deployed

Committed PMC Unavailable DR-State OPCON

En

Route Unit Prep

Open

Request Notes:

MERS Maynard 3 3 0 0 0 DR-4145-CO 21 0 0

MERS Frederick 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0

MERS Thomasville 14 11 3 0 0 0 0 0

DC Ft Worth 20 5 14 0 1 0 0 0

MERS Denver 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0

MERS Bothell 4 2 0 0 2 0 0 0

Sacramento 4 3 0 0 1 0 0 0

TOTAL 55 30 21 0 4 TOTAL 21 0 0 0

Included in above totals, units in route for turn-in. 0 0

Data as of: 10/01/13 @ 1500

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Active IA Disasters - Referral Status & Awards

Data as of: 10/01/13 @ 1500 # Max Grants = Applicants awarded maximum IHP ($32,400 for Major Disasters declared FY 2014)

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IA Registration Statistics

IA Registrations and IHP Amounts as of October 1, 2013 @ 1500

DR/EM # - State Registrations Approved

Applicants Total HA Approved

Total ONA

Approved Total IHP Approved

4145 - CO 21,448 11,904 $32,595,730 $1,829,934 $34,425,663

Totals 21,448 11,904 $32,595,730 $1,829,934 $34,425,663

24 hour change +570 +340 +$1,078,486 +$207,092 +$1,285,578

NPSC Call Data for September 30, 2013

Total Calls Answered (Help Line + Registration Intake) 3,566

Average time to answer call 13 seconds

Maximum / Minimum time to answer a call 31 seconds / 10 seconds

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Housing Inspection Statistics

Inspection Data as of October 1, 2013 @ 1500

DR #-State Inspectors Inspections

Assigned

Inspections

Completed Inspection % Complete

Turnaround Time

(Days)

4145 – CO 72 18,307 17,389 94.99% 2.5

TOTAL 72 18,307 17,389 94.99% 2.5

24 hour change 0 +563 +490 -0.25% 0.0

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IMAT Status National Teams

Team Status Team Status Team Status

Blue/White East West CO

Regional Teams Team Status Team Status Team Status

Region I Region V Region VIII CO

Region II Region VI-1 Region IX-1

Region III Region VI-2 NM Region IX-2 Karuk Tribe

Region IV-1 Region VII KS Region X

Region IV-2

= Assigned/Deployed

= Not Mission Capable

= Available/Mission Capable

= Available/Partially Mission Capable

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Urban Search & Rescue INCIDENT SUPPORT TEAMS (Red-White-Blue) – Monthly On Call Rotation

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

WEST CENTRAL EAST

Team Status Team Status Team Status

CA-TF1 Available AZ-TF1 Available FL-TF1 Available

CA-TF2 Available CO-TF1 Available FL-TF2 Available

CA-TF3 Available IN-TF1 Available MA-TF1 Available

CA-TF4 Available MO-TF1 Reconstituting MD-TF1 Available

CA-TF5 Available NE-TF1 Reconstituting NY-TF1 Available

CA-TF6 Available NM-TF1 Conditional PA-TF1 Available

CA-TF7 Available NV-TF1 Reconstituting VA-TF1 Available

CA-TF8 Available TN-TF1 Available VA-TF2 Available

WA-TF1 Available TX-TF1 Available OH-TF1 Available

UT-TF1 Reconstituting

= Assigned/Deployed = Out-of-Service

= Available/Mission Capable = Available/Partially Mission Capable

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Region RRCC Regional Watch Center

I Watch/Steady State Maynard MOC (24/7)

II Watch/Steady State 24/7

III Watch/Steady State 24/7

IV Watch/Steady State 24/7

V Watch/Steady State 24/7

VI Watch/Steady State Denton MOC (24/7)

VII Watch/Steady State 24/7

VIII Watch/Steady State Denver MOC (24/7)

IX Watch/Steady State 24/7

X Watch/Steady State Bothell MOC (24/7)

RRCC / Regional Watch Center Status

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National Team Status

Team/Status Current Location Remarks

National Watch Center Washington, DC Watch/Steady State

NRCC Washington, DC Not Activated

HLT Miami, FL Activated

DEST Washington, DC Not Activated

Mission Capable Partially Mission Capable Not Mission Capable

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