federal affairs alert political update: 2012 elections...

FEDERAL AFFAIRS ALERT POLITICAL UPDATE: 2012 ELECTIONS AND THE 113TH CONGRESS

This analysis was prepared by DLA Piper’s Government Affairs practice

Tom Boyd |Jim Blanchard | Steve Phillips |John Merrigan

Ignacio Sanchez | Mac Bernstein |Michael Castle | Sarah Donovan

Specific Topics Covered:

Tax Evan Migdail

Defense Steve Phillips / Mac Bernstein / Nat Bell

Cyber Security Sydney White / Jim Halpert

Financial Services Andrew Eskin / Tom Boyd

Health Care Mary Langowski / Steve Phillips

Campaign Finance William Minor

Energy Gary Klein

Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress 1 November 12, 2012

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http://www.dlapiper.com/william_minor/

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http://www.dlapiper.com/gary_klein/

Overall Conclusions: Presidential

Influential factors in the 2012 election

The economy, jobs and taxes

Wedge issues, e.g. the middle class vs. wealthy (the “1%”)

Independents and targeted demographics

Women, young voters, minorities (Hispanics)

Targeted messages, e.g. women’s issues, auto rescue, and

immigration

Microtargeting and turnout, turnout, turnout

Super PACs and record campaign spending to achieve status quo

Wars and foreign policy less important

Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress 2 November 12, 2012


An Election Anomaly

In exit polls, 52% of voters said the country is on the “wrong track” (Source: CBS News Exit Poll)

President Obama's job approval rating averaged 50% or less during

2012 (Source: Gallup)

No president has ever won reelection with unemployment over 7.2%

(Reagan in 1984); current unemployment is 7.9%

Despite these challenges, President Obama won with a significant

electoral college margin

Electoral College Vote Count:

Obama 332 (50.79%* of the popular vote)

Romney 206 (47.65%* of the popular vote)

3 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012

* Estimate by The Examiner, Nov. 12, 2012


(continued)

Obama won by:

Following precise playbook (based on audit of 2008 campaign)

Extremely effective micro targeting of electorate beginning in 2009

Focused on Blue counties/precincts

Spending $300 million to define Romney early

Heartless corporate raider, wealthy and unconnected to issues of middle class

“Severely conservative,” captive to right wing of party (Paul Ryan as VP pick), socially

conservative (“War on Women”)

Attacked “consistency” of Romney positions and auto bailout in Ohio

Romney lacked resources to respond

Maintaining a disciplined, laser-like focus on message

Focused on key Democratic constituencies: women, Hispanics, young voters and college-

educated suburbanites

Tailored message to attract white, working-class voters in swing states, e.g. auto bailout

Cut into Republicans’ swing state white voter base

Executing the best election ground game of modern era

Obama turnout machine delivered in key districts in key states

Benefiting from demographics favoring Democrats – huge shift from 1980s/1990s


Election Turning Points

Obama defined Romney before he had a chance to

rehabilitate from the primaries (as Bush did with Kerry in 2004)

Refocused on key targeted messages

e.g. insurance coverage for contraception and Dream Act

regulation

Attracted independents going into election day

Debates: Obama recovered from first debate: Romney went to

“prevent defense”

Ohio: Running Chrysler ad in Toledo

“October Surprise”: Hurricane Sandy


42%

44%

46%

48%

50%

52%

2 per. Mov. Avg. (Obama - Registered Voters) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Romney - Registered Voters)

2 per. Mov. Avg. (Obama - Likely Voters) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Romney - Likely Voters)

Presidential Turning Points

(continued)

6

Source: Gallup

Sept. 17: “47%”

tape released

Sept. 6: DNC

convention ends

Oct.1: Denver

debate

Oct. 5: Jobs

report with

UE <8%

Oct. 29:

Sandy hits

Oct.-Nov. 6: Early

voting/turnout

Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress

Obama registered voters

Obama likely voters

Romney registered voters

Romney likely voters

November 12, 2012

$300M in ads

pre-convention

2012 Electoral College Votes

Source: National Journal

National Electoral College Results

270 votes

needed to win

332

Obama

206

Romney

November 12, 2012

Obama

Romne

y

Obama

Romney Barack Obama (D)

Mitt Romney (R)

Unknown

12

7

55

6 6

4

10 5

9

3

3

3

3

3

5

7

6

HI 4

38 8

6

10

6

10 10

20 11

16

18

8

9

NH 4 MA 11

CT 7 RI 4

NJ 14

DE 3 MD 10

DC 3

VT 3

29

16

4

6

15

29

20

9

11

13 5

Highlights from Presidential Election

Going into election day, Obama had 201 likely electoral votes and Romney

had 191, with 11 states and 146 Electoral College votes remaining “tossups” (Source: Real Clear Politics)

State Won in 2012

% of

Pop. Vote EC Votes Won in 2008

Colorado Obama 51 9 Obama

Florida Obama 50 29 Obama

Iowa Obama 52 6 Obama

Michigan Obama 53 16 Obama

Nevada Obama 52 6 Obama

New Hampshire Obama 52 4 Obama

North Carolina Romney 51 15 Obama

Ohio Obama 50 18 Obama

Pennsylvania Obama 52 20 Obama

Virginia Obama 51 13 Obama

Wisconsin Obama 52 10 Obama


19 9 2

19 9 6

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 8

2 0 12

9

Voter Turnout is Key

Notes: Percentages are of total ballots counted of eligible voting population

2012 turnout number is preliminary.

Source: United States Elections Project, George Mason University

58%

52%

55%

61%

62%


60%

November 12, 2012

Voter Turnout is Key: 2012 Presidential

Election Votes by Demographic

10 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress

Voted for Obama Voted for Romney

Gender Women 55% 44%

Men 45% 52%

Race

White (non-Hispanic) 39% 59%

Black 93% 6%

Hispanic 71% 27%

Education Non-College Graduate 51% 47%

College Graduate 50% 48%

Age

18 to 29 years 60% 37%

30 to 44 years 52% 45%

45 to 64 years 47% 51%

64+ years 44% 56%

Income

Less than $50,000 60% 38%

$50,000 to $100,000 46% 52%

$100,000 or more 44% 54%

Source: National Journal

November 12, 2012

11

Voter Turnout is Key (continued)

Turnout is key in Presidential year elections

Turnout has risen steadily since 2000

Based on early projections, turnout was flat between 2008

and 2012

Year Turnout

(in millions) Republican Turnout Democratic Turnout

2000 107.4 (55.3%)

2004 123.5 (60.7%) 39% 37%

2008 132.6 (62.2%) 29% 39%

2012 132 (60%)1 36% 35%

Source: United States Elections Project, George Mason University and Gallup 1 Projection

Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012

Issue of Greatest Concern to Voters:

The Economy

Early exit polls show the top issues on voters’ minds were:

Economy 60%;

Health care 17%;

The deficit 17%; and

Foreign policy 4%

Voters described their own financial situations as:

Better off today than four years ago 24%;

Worse off 34%; and

The same 41%

More voters in swing states of Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio

and Virginia blame George W. Bush than Barack Obama for

the state of the US economy

November 12, 2012 12

Source: CNN


Independent Expenditures in 2012

Spending by Super PACs and other independent groups will

exceed $1 billion in the 2012 election, more than three times

what outside groups spent in 2008

13

Source: Center for Responsive Politics


Impact of Citizens United

Explosion in spending by outside groups was facilitated by the

Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision in 2010

Citizens United overturned laws prohibiting corporate expenditures

in connection with federal elections

Corporations continue to be prohibited from donating to federal

candidates and political parties (except through their PACs), but

outside groups may accept unlimited corporate donations

Such groups may not coordinate their expenditures with

candidates, but many active in 2012 were closely aligned with

particular candidates and were funded by and run by close

supporters and even family members of the candidates

Notwithstanding the new ability of corporations to give to these

groups, the largest Super PAC donors in the 2012 cycle were

individuals, including one family that gave more than $53 million

14

Source: Center for Public Integrity


Overall Conclusions: Congressional

House: Republicans likely to lose at least 7 seats

Senate: Democrats gained 2 seats

Democrats retain control of Senate

With narrow Senate control, Democrats lack ability to overcome GOP filibusters

Republicans could gain majority in 2014

Impact of Republican retention of House majority

House rules allow Speaker to press GOP agenda (if Republican coalitions can agree on priorities)

Status quo in House enhances competing agenda with White House

Republicans will try to temper Obama’s regulatory agenda

Large initiatives (e.g. Bush tax cuts and deficit reduction) will be hotly contested

Grand Bargain possible?

President and House both pledge to hold firm on principles

Difficult negotiations ahead


16

Balance of Power in Congress

Senate

112th

Congress

113th

Congress

Democrats 531 552

Republicans 47 45

House of Representatives

112th

Congress

113th

Congress

Democrats 193 194

Republicans 242 234

TBD 7

1 Two Independents caucused with Democrats

2 Independent Angus King (ME) expected to caucus with Democrats

Note: Data as of 1pm Nov. 12, 2012


Highlights from 2012 House Elections

Big changes before general election voting: 21 Democrats and 18

Republicans retired or ran for higher office; 6 Republican and 7

Democratic incumbents voted out in primaries (Source: Bloomberg BNA)

Republicans shrunk conservative House Democrats numbers further;

defeated at least 4 incumbents and picked up several “Blue Dog”

open seats

Democrats defeated conservatives like Joe Walsh (IL), along with

more establishment members like Charlie Bass (NH) and Judy

Biggert (IL)

Democrats won 20 of 29 “toss up” races (Source: Cook Report Rankings)

Redistricting: Texas and Florida’s final maps will be drawn in 2013

and each could result in additional Democratic seats

17 November 12, 2012 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress

18

Political Equilibrium in House

Elections

1990: Democratic margin of control 50 seats

1994: Elections produce 13 seat margin of Republican control

2006/2008: Pelosi/Emanuel gain 55+ seats in Blue Dog districts

2010: GOP regains majority

2012: Status quo election

268

259

205 207 212 213

206 203

233

257

193 194

167

176

230 228 223 222

229 232

202

178

242

234

150

200

250

300

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Democrats Republicans

Note: Party divisions based on election day results; Independents counted with party caucused with. Data as of 1pm Nov. 12, 2012

Source: Office of the Clerk, House of Representatives


Note: Some 2012

House races

have yet to be

called

Highlights from 2012 Senate Elections

Not since 1980 has one party defended so many Senate seats (23

Democratic vs. 10 Republican)

A year ago, Hotline’s Senate rankings saw a potential Republican

wave developing

Despite this, Democrats expanded Senate majority

Strong Democratic candidate recruitment

Unforced errors by Republican candidates in Missouri and Indiana

Surprise 11th hour retirement by Olympia Snowe (ME)

Scott Brown (MA) (who won in off -year election) couldn’t overcome

Democratic advantage

Democrats ran better campaigns in several key states

Continued Democratic majority gives party a power base in Congress

November 12, 2012 19 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress

Highlights from 2012 Senate Elections

(continued)

Democratic pickups in Indiana, Maine (Angus King likely to caucus with Democrats) and Massachusetts

Republican pickup in Nebraska

Senate scoreboard:

AZ: Flake (R) 50.4%, Carmona (D) 45.2%

FL: Nelson (D) 55.1% Mack (R) 42.4%

NE: Fischer (R) 58.2%, Kerrey (D) 41.8%

MA: Warren (D) 53.9%, Brown 46.1%

VA: Kaine (D) 52.4%, Allen (R) 47.6%

ME: King (I) 53.3%, Summers (R) 30.2%, Dill (D) 13.2%

MO: McCaskill (D) 54.7%, Akin (R) 39.2%

MT: Tester (D) 48.8%, Rehberg (R) 44.7%

ND: Heitkamp (D) 50.5%, Berg (R) 49.5%

NM: Heinrich (D) 51%, Wilson (R) 45.4%

OH: Brown (D) 50.3%, Mandel (R) 45.1%

20

Incumbents are italicized; winners in bold.

Source: Real Clear Politics


21

Political Equilibrium in Senate

Elections

2006 election: Democrats regain control; one-vote margin

2008: Obama “change” election

2010: Anti-Obama/incumbent election; restores near parity

2012: Status quo election

57

48

45 45

50 51

49

45

51

59

53

55

43

52

55 55

50 49

51

55

49

41

47

45

40

50

60

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Democrats Republicans

Note: Independents counted with party caucused with.

Source: United States Senate


22

20 Democratic seats

9 in Red or “Purple” states

Alaska (Mark Begich)

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Colorado (Mark Udall)

Louisiana (Mary Landrieu)

Montana (Max Baucus)

New Hampshire (Jeanne Shaheen)

North Carolina (Kay Hagan)

South Dakota (Tim Johnson)

Virginia (Mark Warner)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

13 Republican seats

Just one in Blue or “Purple” state

Maine (Susan Collins)

Other Races to Watch

Competitive in 2008

Minnesota (Al Franken)

New Mexico (Tom Udall)

Oregon (Jeff Merkley)

Potential Retirements?

New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

South Dakota (Tim Johnson)

Already drew top-tier opponent

Virginia (Mark Warner)

Preview: 2014 Senate Elections


Lame Duck Session/Unfinished

Business

Possible Lame Duck agenda (top priorities):

Fiscal cliff

2013 defense authorization bill

Expiring tax cuts and extenders

Sequester/cuts

“Doc fix” and AMT patch

Other unfinished business

Cybersecurity?

Farm bill?

Russian trade agreement?


Tax Overview and Outlook

Lame Duck Session – the “Fiscal Cliff”

Pending: $607 billion in tax increases and spending cuts including: (1) extension of Bush tax

cuts; (2) AMT “patch” for 2012; (3) business tax extenders; (4) “doc fix”; (5) return to pre-2001

estate tax rates; (6) expiration of payroll tax cuts; and (7) new Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes

go into effect

Option: Republicans likely to strike deal with Obama and extend most items

Obama will resist extending Bush tax rates for wealthy: possible compromise above $250k/200k level?

Option: If left and right wings are entrenched, could (temporarily) go off cliff

Debt ceiling increase: Republicans not likely to agree without firm agreement to address long-

term debt/entitlement issues by certain date in 2013 (outline of Grand Bargain?)

Lame Duck session likely to be long and contentious

Long-term Agenda

Obama and Congress likely to meet “early and often” in 2013 on budget and tax reform

Disagreements between Obama and Republicans in Congress will make this a long and

complex negotiation

White House likely to design its proposals around Simpson-Bowles

All tax expenditures will be scrutinized to determine whether they are economically efficient,

create jobs, and grow the economy

Corporate tax rate could be reduced, possibly close to 25%


Defense Overview and Outlook

Sequester: Would cut defense spending by $500 billion over 10 years

Department of Defense (DOD) would have some discretion

Program accounts would see an average funding reduction of 9.4%; some accounts could see

more (Source: OMB)

Option 1: Short-term delay of full impact, with new mix of cuts and smaller package ($100 billion

over 10 years – Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Senator Carl Levin)

Option 2: Punt to beginning of 2013

Strategic realignment: New defense strategy calls for increased focus on Asia-Pacific

Increased resources and movement of troops to region

Secretary Leon Panetta: 60% of naval assets will be based in Pacific by 2020

Afghanistan wind down: Bipartisan agreement that US forces should exit Afghanistan by 2014

Will lead to increased scrutiny on contractors

Doing more with less: Large, expensive weapons programs ripe for budget cuts

Increased defense contractor competition and pressure to achieve program objectives faster

and cheaper

More drones and special operations; troop levels cut by 100,000; revised BRAC proposal?

DOD plans new instructions for acquisition system (Better Buying Power 2.0)

25 25 November 12, 2012 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress

Cybersecurity Overview

Congress failed to enact cybersecurity legislation prior to adjourning for the election

Executive Order: Obama expected to issue Executive Order on critical infrastructure

cybersecurity to fill what the Administration perceives as significant gaps in current

federal policy

Order to focus on establishing baseline security standards to be implemented by federal

agencies with existing authority to regulate particular critical infrastructure sectors

Order to also include provisions to facilitate sharing of cyber-threat information between federal

government and private sector

Congress not expected to pass cybersecurity legislation during the Lame Duck

session due to the significant policy differences

Democrats favor pending Senate bill; Republican are proponents of less regulatory alternative

measure

Slim chance that a bipartisan group is able to reach agreement on bill addressing information

sharing only

Liability protections: Legislation still needed to provide liability protections for sharing

information, even if an Executive Order is issued


Health Care Overview and Outlook

Short-term health care agenda

Medicare Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) physician payment formula “patch”

Expires December 31, 2012; 27% cut scheduled to take effect

$11 billion cost for one-year fix; $270 billion minimum cost for permanent fix

Fiscal Cliff: In pay-go environment, menu of existing health care offsets should Congress pursue short

or long-term fix

Potential for significant cuts in federal health program spending

Affordable Care Act (ACA) regulatory action: Several ACA-related rules expected post-election

(Essential Health Benefits, Sunshine Act, etc.)

Long-term health care agenda

Health reform: ACA has withstood legal and electoral challenges, implementation will proceed; House

GOP to continue use of oversight authority to complicate Administration’s efforts and to examine

process used to pass ACA

Medicare: Efforts at the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (CMMI) and elsewhere aimed at

improved care coordination and efficiency expected to move forward; Obama has shown willingness to

negotiate on key Medicare changes such as provider payments and rural health

Medicaid: Will be part of 2012-2013 entitlement reform discussion, but fundamental changes are not

expected; Obama has proposed incremental changes, such as Medicaid/CHIP “blended rate,” rebates,

and care coordination of “dual eligible” beneficiaries


Banking and Financial Services

Overview and Outlook

Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act enacted in July 2010 provided for:

New Financial Stability Oversight Council, governmental resolution authority for failing institutions,

agency reorganization, new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and a Federal Insurance

Office

Tougher capital, leverage and liquidity requirements

Created new requirements for derivatives, hedge funds, private equity funds, credit rating agencies,

debit card interchange fees and corporate governance, among others

Dodd-Frank provides broad authority for regulators to define the details as part of hundreds of

rulemakings critical to implementation

Rulemakings now are in various stages: adopted, delayed, overdue and in process

House Republicans have been unable to repeal Dodd-Frank (stated goal) but have held critical

oversight hearings and sought to curtail funding

With the elections resulting in “status quo,” expect current trends to continue

Various rulemakings will continue to move along

House Republicans will continue vigilant oversight

With Elizabeth Warren (recognized intellectual founder of CFPB) in the Senate, the CFPB is likely to

be more aggressive

Unfinished business: reformation of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae


Energy Overview and Outlook

Lame Duck session:

Wind energy tax credits (PTC/ITC) expire on December 31; likely extended as part of fiscal cliff

deal

Long-term agenda

Regulation of oil and gas:

Fracking: EPA considering several new regulations

Keystone pipeline: will likely be approved after completion of environmental review

Export of LNG: Several applications for export are pending; likely some will be approved

Coal regulation: EPA will likely pursue new regulations to further diminish domestic use of coal

Legislation in 2013 in several specific areas is possible

New incentives for natural gas vehicles (“T. Boone Pickens” bill)

Offshore oil and gas development reform: increase acreage available, share revenues with states

Biofuels incentives: possible modification of Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) by EPA regulation;

challenging to do through legislation.

Funding and financing assistance for renewables and electric vehicles likely to be curtailed by

House; demand will be sustained by increasing DOD purchases of wind, biofuels and other

renewables

Administration efforts to enact cap and trade mechanism; carbon regulation by EPA is more likely


Reference Information

Historic Campaign Spending

$6 billion: Total spending for all 2012 federal elections, an increase of

13% from 2008

Slower growth than last two presidential elections: in both 2004 and 2008,

spending jumped 25% from previous cycle

Despite the increase, candidates and political parties raised about

the same or less than in past elections

For example, it was predicted that Obama’s campaign would be the first to

raise $1 billion, but he will have raised less than in 2008 (about $650

million in 2012 compared to $750 million in 2008)

Why was the total higher in 2012? Spending by so-called Super

PACs and other independent groups, funded by wealthy individuals

and corporations freed to give by the Supreme Court, made the

difference

31

Sources: Center for Responsive Politics; Bloomberg BNA.

November 12, 2012 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress

32

Balance of Power in the States

Governors

Current Future

Democrats 20 19

Republicans 29 30

Independents 1 1

State Houses

Current Future

Democrats 15 19

Republicans 27 26

Split 7 4

Nonpartisan

(Nebraska) 1 1


33

2012 Governors Races

State Incumbent/

Open/Party Republican Democrat

Result

(Repub./ Dem.)

Delaware Incumbent/D Jeff Cragg Jack Markell Democrat

Indiana Open/R Mike Pence John Gregg Republican

Missouri Incumbent/D David Spence Jay Nixon Democrat

Montana Open/D Rick Hill Steve Bullock Republican

New Hampshire Open/D Ovide Lamontagne Maggie Hassan Democrat

North Carolina Open/D Patrick McCrory Walter Dalton Republican

North Dakota Incumbent/R Jack Dalrymple Ryan Taylor Republican

Utah Incumbent/R Gary Herbert Peter Cooke Republican

Vermont Incumbent/D Randy Brock Peter Shumlin Democrat

Washington Open/D Rob McKenna Jay Inslee Republican

West Virginia Incumbent/D Bill Maloney Earl Ray Tomblin Democrat


34

U.S. House of Representatives

Equilibrium

80

218

Reagan

Revolution ‘80

Great

Society ‘64

Watergate ‘74

Contract With

America ‘94

Republican

Margin of

Control cut

to 5 seats

in 2000

Note: Party divisions based on election day results; Independents counted with party caucused with.

Source: Office of the Clerk, House of Representatives


Possible GOP Leadership in House

Other leaders:

National Republican Congressional

Committee Chair: Greg Walden (OR)

Chief Deputy Whip: Pete Roskham (IL)

Republican Conference Vice Chair:

Lynn Jenkins (KS) or Martha Roby

(AL)

Republican Conference Secretary:

Gregg Harper (MS), Virginia Foxx (NC)

or Jeff Denham (CA)

Leadership Chair: may not exist unless

Pete Sessions (TX) takes

Republican Study Committee Chair:

Tom Graves (GA) or Steve Scalise

(LA)

35

House Speaker

John Boehner (OH)

House Majority Leader

Eric Cantor (VA)

House Majority Whip

Kevin McCarthy (CA)

Republican Policy Committee Chair

James Lankford (OK)

Republican Conference Chair

Tom Price (GA) or Cathy McMorris

Rodgers (WA)


36

US Senate Equilibrium

15

60

Reagan

Revolution ‘80 Great

Society ‘64

Watergate ‘74

Contract With

America ‘94

2000 Senate

50/50 –

Republicans

Control with

VP vote


37

Senate Leadership in 113th

Congress

Possible Senate Democratic Leadership

Position Democrat

Leader Harry Reid (NV)

Whip Dick Durbin (IL)

Policy Committee Chair and Conference Vice Chair Chuck Schumer (NY)

Conference Secretary Patty Murray (WA)

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Kristen Gillibrand (NY)

Possible Senate Republican Leadership

Position Republican

Leader Mitch McConnell (KY)

Whip John Cornyn (TX)

Conference Chair John Barrasso (WY)

Policy Committee Chair John Thune (SD)

Conference Vice Chair Roy Blunt (MO)

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair TBD


38

Senators Up For Re-Election in 2014

State Incumbent Party 2008 Election Results

Alabama Jeff Sessions Republican Jeff Sessions (R) 63%, Vivian Davis Figures (D) 37%

Alaska Mark Begich Democratic Mark Begich (D) 48%, Ted Stevens (R) 47%, Other 5%

Arkansas Mark Pryor Democratic Mark Pryor (D) 80%, Rebekah Kennedy (Green) 21%

Colorado Mark Udall Democratic Mark Udall (D) 53%, Bob Schaffer (R) 43%, Other 4%

Delaware Chris Coons Democratic Joe Biden (D) 65%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 35%

Georgia Saxby Chambliss Republican Saxby Chambliss (R) 57%, Jim Martin (D) 43%

Idaho Jim Risch Republican Jim Risch (R) 58%, Larry LaRocco (D) 34%, Other 8%

Illinois Richard Durbin Democratic Richard Durbin (D) 68%, Steve Sauerberg (R) 29%, Other 3%

Iowa Tom Harkin Democratic Tom Harkin (D) 63%, Christopher Reed (R) 37%

Kansas Pat Roberts Republican Pat Roberts (R) 60%, Jim Slattery (D) 36%, Other 4%

Kentucky Mitch McConnell Republican Mitch McConnell (R) 53%, Bruce Lunsford (D) 47%

Louisiana Mary Landrieu Democratic Mary Landrieu (D) 52%, John Kennedy (R) 46%, Other 2%

Maine Susan Collins Republican Susan Collins (R) 61%, Tom Allen (D) 39%

Massachusetts John Kerry Democratic John Kerry (D) 66%, Jeff Beatty (R) 31%, Other 3%

Michigan Carl Levin Democratic Carl Levin (D) 63%, Jack Hoogendyk (R) 34%, Other 3%

Minnesota Al Franken Democratic Al Franken (D) 42%, Norm Coleman (R) 42%, Dean Barkley (MIP 15%)


39

Senators Up For Re-Election in 2014

(continued)

State Incumbent Party 2008 Election Results

Mississippi Thad Cochran Republican Thad Cochran (R) 61%, Erik R. Fleming (D) 39%

Montana Max Baucus Democratic Max Baucus (D) 73%, Bob Kelleher (R) 27%

Nebraska Mike Johanns Republican Mike Johanns (R) 58%, Scott Kleeb (D) 40%, Other 2%

New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen Democratic Jeanne Shaheen (D) 52%, John E. Sununu (R) 45%, Other 3%

New Jersey Frank Lautenberg Democratic Frank Lautenberg (D) 56%, Dick Zimmer (R) 42%, Other 2%

New Mexico Tom Udall Democratic Tom Udall (D) 61%, Steve Pearce (R) 39%

North Carolina Kay Hagan Democratic Kay Hagan (D) 53%, Elizabeth Dole (R) 44%, Other 3%

Oklahoma Jim Inhofe Republican Jim Inhofe (R) 57%, Andrew Rice (D) 39%, Other 4%

Oregon Jeff Merkley Democratic Jeff Merkley (D) 49%, Gordon Smith (R) 46%, Other 5%

Rhode Island Jack Reed Democratic Jack Reed (D) 73%, Robert Tingle (R) 27%

South Carolina Lindsey Graham Republican Lindsey Graham (R) 58%, Bob Conley (D) 42%

South Dakota Tim Johnson Democratic Tim Johnson (D) 63%, Joel Dykstra (R) 37%

Tennessee Lamar Alexander Republican Lamar Alexander (R) 65%, Bob Tuke (D) 32%, Other 3%

Texas John Cornyn Republican John Cornyn (R) 55%, Rick Noriega (D) 43%, Other 2%

Virginia Mark Warner Democratic Mark Warner (D) 65%, Jim Gilmore (R) 34%, Other 1%

West Virginia Jay Rockefeller Democratic Jay Rockefeller (D) 64%, Jay Wolfe (R) 36%

Wyoming Mike Enzi Republican Mike Enzi (R) 76%, Chris Rothfuss (D) 24%


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