estácio: 1q15 conference call presentation
TRANSCRIPT
1Q15 Results
Rogério Melzi | CEO
Virgílio Gibbon | CFO
Strategy
2
“No storm will make us change our already defined strategy. In fact, if we thought it was necessary to change our
entire strategy due to changes in the external scenario, it would be because we did not have a strategy at all.” Rogério
Melzi, CEO
Deteriorated image and
product
Lack of standardized
processes; no scalability
Credibility & moral at low
levels
Inflated student base
External pressure (MEC and
society)
INSS step-up
Until 2008 2009 2010 2011
Product, Processes and
People redesign
Stable student base
Building the Platform for
Growth
Choice not to pursue
transformational acquisitions
and new business
2012 2013
External Factors
Growing demand
Lack of qualified
workforce
FIES
Weaker competition in
RJ
Internal Factors
2015-2020
Disorganized
Growth Turnaround Colheita de Frutos Future
2014
Competition?
Public policies - FIES?
New DL regulation?
Technology?
Consumer behavior
Substitute Products?
Our 20-Mile March
3
Roald Amudsen (1872 – 1928) Robert Falcon Scott (1868 – 1912)
Thorough Planning
Discipline –20 Miles at a time
Obsession about what could go wrong
On one hand, "10x leaders" understand that they face
continuous uncertainty and they cannot control or predict
important aspects around the world with absolute precision.
On the other hand, they reject the idea that forces beyond their
control or fortuitous circumstances can determine their results;
on the contrary, they assume full responsibility for their fate.
3.8 3.4
4.8
5.7
3.5 4.2 4.0
1.7
3.0 3.0 3.2
5.3
3.1
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
KPIs Evolution
EBITDA Margin (In p.p.)
4
53.1 47.3 61.3 70.9
85.3 99.0
110.9
1H09 1H10 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15
On-Campus Intake („000)
32.1 38.6 43.4
51.4
63.8 67.5
2H09 2H10 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14
Distance Learning Intake („000)
16.5 18.8
26.7 30.7
43.6 42.4
1H10 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1Q15
8.5
14.3
20.4 21.3
26.8
31.7
2H09 2H10 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14
Students(‘000)
Campuses
Net Revenue* (R$ MM)
EBITDA* (R$ MM)
EBITDA margin*
Market Cap
2,588.6
599.0
23.1%
R$5.6 billion
1Q15
89
527.9
Expansion
5
Students (‘000)
Campuses
Net Revenue(R$ MM)
EBITDA (R$ MM)
EBITDA margin
Market Cap
979.9
64.7
6.6%
R$982.3 million
2008
70
218.0
*Last 12 months
Keeping the Expansion Pace...
Marista, our 4th campus in Fortaleza/CE
Conceição campus, in São Paulo/SP
Boa Viagem campus, Recife/PE
Expansion in Salvador (new building in the
Costa Azul neighborhood and expansion of
the Fratelli Vita unit)
Venda Nova campus, in Belo Horizonte/MG
Greenfields
Marista (Fortaleza)
Fratelli Vita expansion (Salvador) New Costa Azul building Prédio Costa
Azul (Salvador) – floor location Boa Viagem (Recife)
6
Venda Nova (Belo Horizonte)
Conceição (São Paulo)
Keeping the Expansion Pace...
Acquisitions
IESAM (Belém) 3,5k students
Literatus (Manaus) 4,8k students
CEUT (Teresina) 3,7k students
FACITEC (Brasília) 3,5k students
ASSESC (Florianópolis) 0,9k students
FARGS (Porto Alegre) 1,1k students
IDEZ (João Pessoa) 0,5k students
Fac. São Luis (São Luis) 4,0k students
13 acquisitions, besides UniSEB
36k students acquired since 2011
10k to 15k new acquired students up to
2017 Atual (Boa Vista) 4.5k students
UniSEB (Ribeirão Preto)
13.9
53.4
1Q14 1Q15
Continuing Education
8
+284.0%
Net Revenue
0.3
17.9
1Q14 1Q15
+ 50x bigger
EBITDA
Graduate Segment
Academia do Concurso
Short Term Programs
Corporate Solutions
Technical Courses
(Pronatec)
New Businesses
(In R$ million)
(In R$ million)
Hospitality
Program
Differentials
9
Branding
Project
ESPAÇO NAVE
“Classroom of the Future”, Media
Lab, prototypes
2015 Student Service Concept:
No service counter
New design
Hi-tech interactions
Academic Model
SSC
Balance & Risk Management
10
Adopt a "slower" pace for FIES growth, without ever letting the organization use the program
as a primary tool for student intake
Adopt a "more careful" pace for Pronatec, not plunging headlong into a program that is
basically re-launched by the government each semester
Not doing large acquisitions in a row that could put the financial situation of the company at
risk in the event of a sudden change of scenario
Keep the Company's leverage levels under control, remembering that the scenario could
suddenly change
Focus more and more on Cash Generation
Take advantage of good opportunities to strengthen the Company's cash position
Not adopt a growth rate that would not allow the continuous improvement of our service level
1Q15 Results
11
Cash & Cash Equivalents: R$721.1 MM
Net Debt: 163.5 MM
Short Term Debt : 243.4 MM
Net Debt/EBITDA: 0.2
Rating: BrAA-
Internal Organization (Standards, Systems,
Processes, Models, Management, Culture)
No Complex Integrations
Finalcial Highlights (R$ million)
1Q14 1Q15 Change
Net Revenue 538.2 722.3 34.2%
Gross Profit 229.5 319.1 39.0%
Gross Profit Margin 42.6% 44.2% 1.6 p.p.
EBIT 109.9 156.8 42.7%
EBIT Margin 20.4% 21.7% 1.3 p.p.
EBITDA 129.4 195.9 51.4%
EBITDA Margin 24.0% 27.1% 3.1 p.p.
Net Income 125.8 130.6 3.8%
Net Income Margin 23.4 18.1% -5.3%
538.2
722.3
255.5
379.3
1Q14 1Q15
NET REVENUE - 1Q15
793.7
1,101.7 +38.8%
+32.4%
Average Ticket (In R$) 1Q14 1Q15 Change
On-campus 538.9 565.6 5.0%
Distance Learning 192.9 185.7 -3.7%
STUDENT BASE
316.1 369.3
78.4
101.9
56.7
1Q14 1Q15
394.5
+33.8% 527.9
+16.8%
(000‟ students)
Distance Learning
On Campus
Total Student Base
Aquisitions - 12 months
(In R$ million)
Net Revenue Deduction Gross Revenue
Note:Total base including undergraduate and graduate students.
+30.0%
12
Operational Performance
Retention Project
Preventive Model
(HQ)
Corrective
Model
Preventive Model
(academic)
Dropout
Scheduling percentage
Scheduling percentage
Reversal
percentage
Indicators
Tutoring for the modules
with the highest flunk
rates
Map the “Dropout Profile”
(Academic, Financial,
Qualitative)
Retention Manual
(Enrollment Suspension
Interview)
Meeting with coordinators
HQ calls (script)
“Retention
Cup”
40
Cost and Operational Expenses
Vertical Analysis
(% of Net Operating Revenue) 1Q14 1Q15 Var.
Cash Cost* -55.0% -53.0% 2.0 p.p.
Personnel -35.6% -33.8% 1.8 p.p.
Brazilian Social Security Institute (INSS) -7.6% -7.1% 0.5 p.p.
Rentals. Condominium Fees and
Municipal Property Tax -8.0% -7.9% 0.1 p.p.
Textbooks Materials -1.2% -1.3% -0.1 p.p.
Others -2.6% -2.8% -0.2 p.p.
Selling Expenses -9.0% -7.5% 1.5 p.p.
PDA -3.0% -2.2% 0.8 p.p.
Marketing -6.0% -5.3% 0.7 p.p.
G&A Expenses* -12.0% -12.5% -0.5 p.p.
*Cost of Services and G&A expenses excluding depreciation. 14
15
EBITDA and Net Income
EBITDA
129.4
195.9 24.0%
27.1%
1Q14 1Q15
EBITDA EBITDA Margin
(In R$ million)
1EBITDA in accordance with the CVM instruction 527, does not consider Operating Financial Result
+51.4%
Net Income (In R$ million)
125.8
130.6
23.4%
18.1%
1Q14 1Q15
+3,8%
16
Net Income
1EBITDA in accordance with the CVM instruction 527, does not consider Operating Financial Result
125.8 130.6
66.5 38.0
19.6 1.1 3.0
Net Income 1Q14 EBITDA Financial Result Depreciation Social Contribution Income Tax Net Income 1Q15
Net Income Positive Variation Negative Variation
Net Average Days Receivables
Accounts Receivables (R$ MM) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Gross Accounts Receivables 528.4 520.9 641.5 573.2 833.9
FIES 147.2 128.6 222.2 149.7 325.9
Tuition Monthly Fees 305.3 329.0 333.5 354.0 412.5
Agreement Receivables 43.0 35.0 47.4 38.7 51.6
Others 31.6 24.2 31.7 24.0 45.4
Provision for Doubtful Accounts (92.0) (93.1) (101.7) (115.0) (111.7)
Net Accounts Receivables 435.2 423.7 533.0 451.4 723.6
Net Revenues (Last 12 months) 1,856.0 2,001.5 2,315.5 2,518.5 2,724.8
Days Receivables 84 76 83 65 96
Net Revenue Ex. FIES (Last 12 months) 1,193.4 1,216.4 1,410.5 1,472.7 1,601.0
Days Receivables Ex. FIES and FIES Revenue 87 87 79 74 89
17
FIES
FIES Accounts Receivable (R$ MM) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Opening Balance 78.9 147.2 128.6 222.2 149.7
(+) FIES Net Revenue 225.7 289.6 296.3 321.8 311.7
(-) Transfer 146.5 293.8 190.6 378.3 121.1
(-) FIES Deduction/Provision 10.8 14.5 14.8 16.0 16.6
(+) Acquisitions - - 2.6 - 1.2
Ending Balance 147.2 128.6 222.2 149.7 325.9
FIES Carry-Forward Credits (R$ MM) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Opening Balance 44.4 63.6 82.4 50.0 81.7
(+) Transfer 146.5 293.8 190.6 378.3 121.1
(-) Tax payment 40.5 70.8 70.2 78.9 24.3
(-) Repurchase auctions 86.8 204.3 152.8 265.9 91.3
(+) Acquisitions - - - -1.8 -
Ending Balance 63.6 82.4 50.0 81.7 87.2
FIES Average Days Receivables 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
FIES Days Receivables 115 97 108 80 132 18
19
Cash Flow
Cash Flow Statement (R$ million) 1Q14 1Q15
Profit before income taxes and social contribution 135.3 144.2
Adjustments to reconcile profit to net cash generated: 26.1 82.0
Result after reconciliation to net cash generated 161.3 226.3
Changes in assets and liabilities: (102.9) (257.9)
Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities: 58.4 (31.7)
CAPEX (Ex-Acquisitions) (36.4) (60.8)
Operational Cash Flow: 22.0 (92.5)
Other investing activities: (1.5) 0.3
Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities 20.5 (92.2)
Cash flows from financing activities: (1.6) 98.1
Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities 18.9 6.0
Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the period 739.2 715.1
Increase in cash and cash equivalents 18.9 6.0
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 758.1 721.1
0.5
1.2
2014.1 2015.1
UniSEB Results
20
Distance Learning Intake
The inclusion of all the accredited UniSEB centers in
Estácio‟s enrollment portal (as well as via UniSEB‟s own
portal)Offer greater variety courses;
The offer of an online modality (sought after by more
than 70%);
Campaigns associating Estácio‟s brand with UniSEB‟s;
The positive impact of TV media and our business
model on centers close to Estácio‟s units.
On-Campus Intake
First intake handled by Estácio with the full use of our
enrollment-related corporate structure and intelligence
framework (relationship tools and prospect contact
procedures)
Investments in local relationships (corporate and school
channels)
TV campaign
Comprehensive sensitivity analysis using the 2H14
intake data (still in the legacy systems) in comparison to
local competitors, in order to prepare ourselves for the
2015.1 intake process.
On-Campus Intake („000)
+140.0%
UniSEB Student Base („000)
1Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Change
On-campus Undergraduate 2.1 2.2 2.9 38.1%
DL Undergraduate 27.2 27.3 32.4 19.0%
Graduate 7.1 6.8 6.8 -4.2%
FGV Graduate 1.8 1.9 1.6 -9.6%
Extension 1.1 0.8 0.2 -81.8%
Pronatec - 0.7 0.7 -
Total UniSEB Student Base 39.3 39.7 44.6 13.5%
FIES
21
FIES Student Base („000)
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Change
On-campus undergraduate students 302.8 281.8 315.7 290.2 359.3 18.6%
FIES Student Base 102.1 110.4 121.2 122.7 132.6 29.9%
% of FIES Students 33.7% 39.2% 38.4% 42.3% 36.9% 3.2 p.p.
New FIES Contracts (freshmen and seniors) („000)
1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14
Total Intake 85.3 63.8 105.7 67.5
Freshmen with FIES (until the end of the intake process) 10.3 12.1 26.1 14.9
% via FIES 12.1% 19.0% 24.7% 22.1%
Freshmen with FIES (until the end of the semester) 20.4 15.4 34.9 18.9
% via FIES 23.9% 24.1% 33.0% 28.0%
Seniors students with FIES (new contracts) 5.5 6.2 5.3 3.9
New FIES contracts in the semester 25.9 21.6 40.2 22.8
New FIES Contracts (freshmen and seniors)
until April, 2015 („000)
1H15
Total Intake 110.9
Freshmen with FIES (until the end of the intake process) 12.1
% via FIES 10.9%
Freshmen with FIES (until April) 18.4
% via FIES 16.6%
Seniors students with FIES (new contracts until April) 1.9
New FIES contracts in April 20.3
2015 Strategy
Maintaining our EBITDA target for 2015
Culture change regarding evasion
Cash is King
20 Miles at a time
Risk Management
Eyes opened for opportunities
22
2015 – The Brand Year
23
IR Contacts
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements concerning the industry’s prospects and Estácio Participações’ estimated financial and operating results; these are ere projections and. as such. are based solely on the Company management’s expectations regarding the future of the business and its continuous access to capital to finance Estácio Participações’ business plan. These considerations depend substantially on changes in market conditions. government rules. competitive pressures and the performance of the sector and the Brazilian economy as well as other factors and are. therefore. subject to changes without previous notice. We are a holding company. and our only assets are our interests in SESES. STB. SESPA. SESCE. SESPE. SESAL. SESSE. SESAP. UNEC. SESSA and IREP. and we currently hold 99.9% of the capital stock of each of these subsidiaries. Considering that the Company was incorporated on March 31 2007. the information presented herein is for comparison purposes only. on a proforma unaudited basis. relative to the first three months of 2007. as if the Company had been organized on January 1 2007. Additionally. information was presented on an adjusted basis. in order to reflect the payment of taxes on SESES. our largest subsidiary. which from February 2007. after becoming a for-profit company. is subject to the applicable taxation rules applied to the remaining subsidiaries. except for the exemptions arising out of the PROUNI – University for All Program (“PROUNI”). Information presented for comparison purposes should not be considered as a basis for calculation of dividends. taxes or for any other corporate purposes.
Investor Relations:
Flávia de Oliveira
Arthur Assumpção
Fernanda Assis
Email: [email protected]
Phone: +55 (21) 3311-9789
Fax: +55 (21) 3311-9722
Address: Av. Embaixador Abelardo Bueno. 199 – Office Park – 6th floor
ZIP Code: 22.775-040 – Barra da Tijuca – Rio de Janeiro – RJ – Brazil
Website: www.estacioparticipacoes.com/ir