estácio: 1q15 conference call presentation

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1Q15 Results Rogério Melzi | CEO Virgílio Gibbon | CFO

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Page 1: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

1Q15 Results

Rogério Melzi | CEO

Virgílio Gibbon | CFO

Page 2: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

Strategy

2

“No storm will make us change our already defined strategy. In fact, if we thought it was necessary to change our

entire strategy due to changes in the external scenario, it would be because we did not have a strategy at all.” Rogério

Melzi, CEO

Deteriorated image and

product

Lack of standardized

processes; no scalability

Credibility & moral at low

levels

Inflated student base

External pressure (MEC and

society)

INSS step-up

Until 2008 2009 2010 2011

Product, Processes and

People redesign

Stable student base

Building the Platform for

Growth

Choice not to pursue

transformational acquisitions

and new business

2012 2013

External Factors

Growing demand

Lack of qualified

workforce

FIES

Weaker competition in

RJ

Internal Factors

2015-2020

Disorganized

Growth Turnaround Colheita de Frutos Future

2014

Competition?

Public policies - FIES?

New DL regulation?

Technology?

Consumer behavior

Substitute Products?

Page 3: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

Our 20-Mile March

3

Roald Amudsen (1872 – 1928) Robert Falcon Scott (1868 – 1912)

Thorough Planning

Discipline –20 Miles at a time

Obsession about what could go wrong

On one hand, "10x leaders" understand that they face

continuous uncertainty and they cannot control or predict

important aspects around the world with absolute precision.

On the other hand, they reject the idea that forces beyond their

control or fortuitous circumstances can determine their results;

on the contrary, they assume full responsibility for their fate.

Page 4: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

3.8 3.4

4.8

5.7

3.5 4.2 4.0

1.7

3.0 3.0 3.2

5.3

3.1

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15

KPIs Evolution

EBITDA Margin (In p.p.)

4

53.1 47.3 61.3 70.9

85.3 99.0

110.9

1H09 1H10 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15

On-Campus Intake („000)

32.1 38.6 43.4

51.4

63.8 67.5

2H09 2H10 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14

Distance Learning Intake („000)

16.5 18.8

26.7 30.7

43.6 42.4

1H10 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1Q15

8.5

14.3

20.4 21.3

26.8

31.7

2H09 2H10 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14

Page 5: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

Students(‘000)

Campuses

Net Revenue* (R$ MM)

EBITDA* (R$ MM)

EBITDA margin*

Market Cap

2,588.6

599.0

23.1%

R$5.6 billion

1Q15

89

527.9

Expansion

5

Students (‘000)

Campuses

Net Revenue(R$ MM)

EBITDA (R$ MM)

EBITDA margin

Market Cap

979.9

64.7

6.6%

R$982.3 million

2008

70

218.0

*Last 12 months

Page 6: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

Keeping the Expansion Pace...

Marista, our 4th campus in Fortaleza/CE

Conceição campus, in São Paulo/SP

Boa Viagem campus, Recife/PE

Expansion in Salvador (new building in the

Costa Azul neighborhood and expansion of

the Fratelli Vita unit)

Venda Nova campus, in Belo Horizonte/MG

Greenfields

Marista (Fortaleza)

Fratelli Vita expansion (Salvador) New Costa Azul building Prédio Costa

Azul (Salvador) – floor location Boa Viagem (Recife)

6

Venda Nova (Belo Horizonte)

Conceição (São Paulo)

Page 7: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

Keeping the Expansion Pace...

Acquisitions

IESAM (Belém) 3,5k students

Literatus (Manaus) 4,8k students

CEUT (Teresina) 3,7k students

FACITEC (Brasília) 3,5k students

ASSESC (Florianópolis) 0,9k students

FARGS (Porto Alegre) 1,1k students

IDEZ (João Pessoa) 0,5k students

Fac. São Luis (São Luis) 4,0k students

13 acquisitions, besides UniSEB

36k students acquired since 2011

10k to 15k new acquired students up to

2017 Atual (Boa Vista) 4.5k students

UniSEB (Ribeirão Preto)

Page 8: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

13.9

53.4

1Q14 1Q15

Continuing Education

8

+284.0%

Net Revenue

0.3

17.9

1Q14 1Q15

+ 50x bigger

EBITDA

Graduate Segment

Academia do Concurso

Short Term Programs

Corporate Solutions

Technical Courses

(Pronatec)

New Businesses

(In R$ million)

(In R$ million)

Page 9: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

Hospitality

Program

Differentials

9

Branding

Project

ESPAÇO NAVE

“Classroom of the Future”, Media

Lab, prototypes

2015 Student Service Concept:

No service counter

New design

Hi-tech interactions

Academic Model

SSC

Page 10: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

Balance & Risk Management

10

Adopt a "slower" pace for FIES growth, without ever letting the organization use the program

as a primary tool for student intake

Adopt a "more careful" pace for Pronatec, not plunging headlong into a program that is

basically re-launched by the government each semester

Not doing large acquisitions in a row that could put the financial situation of the company at

risk in the event of a sudden change of scenario

Keep the Company's leverage levels under control, remembering that the scenario could

suddenly change

Focus more and more on Cash Generation

Take advantage of good opportunities to strengthen the Company's cash position

Not adopt a growth rate that would not allow the continuous improvement of our service level

Page 11: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

1Q15 Results

11

Cash & Cash Equivalents: R$721.1 MM

Net Debt: 163.5 MM

Short Term Debt : 243.4 MM

Net Debt/EBITDA: 0.2

Rating: BrAA-

Internal Organization (Standards, Systems,

Processes, Models, Management, Culture)

No Complex Integrations

Finalcial Highlights (R$ million)

1Q14 1Q15 Change

Net Revenue 538.2 722.3 34.2%

Gross Profit 229.5 319.1 39.0%

Gross Profit Margin 42.6% 44.2% 1.6 p.p.

EBIT 109.9 156.8 42.7%

EBIT Margin 20.4% 21.7% 1.3 p.p.

EBITDA 129.4 195.9 51.4%

EBITDA Margin 24.0% 27.1% 3.1 p.p.

Net Income 125.8 130.6 3.8%

Net Income Margin 23.4 18.1% -5.3%

Page 12: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

538.2

722.3

255.5

379.3

1Q14 1Q15

NET REVENUE - 1Q15

793.7

1,101.7 +38.8%

+32.4%

Average Ticket (In R$) 1Q14 1Q15 Change

On-campus 538.9 565.6 5.0%

Distance Learning 192.9 185.7 -3.7%

STUDENT BASE

316.1 369.3

78.4

101.9

56.7

1Q14 1Q15

394.5

+33.8% 527.9

+16.8%

(000‟ students)

Distance Learning

On Campus

Total Student Base

Aquisitions - 12 months

(In R$ million)

Net Revenue Deduction Gross Revenue

Note:Total base including undergraduate and graduate students.

+30.0%

12

Operational Performance

Page 13: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

Retention Project

Preventive Model

(HQ)

Corrective

Model

Preventive Model

(academic)

Dropout

Scheduling percentage

Scheduling percentage

Reversal

percentage

Indicators

Tutoring for the modules

with the highest flunk

rates

Map the “Dropout Profile”

(Academic, Financial,

Qualitative)

Retention Manual

(Enrollment Suspension

Interview)

Meeting with coordinators

HQ calls (script)

“Retention

Cup”

40

Page 14: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

Cost and Operational Expenses

Vertical Analysis

(% of Net Operating Revenue) 1Q14 1Q15 Var.

Cash Cost* -55.0% -53.0% 2.0 p.p.

Personnel -35.6% -33.8% 1.8 p.p.

Brazilian Social Security Institute (INSS) -7.6% -7.1% 0.5 p.p.

Rentals. Condominium Fees and

Municipal Property Tax -8.0% -7.9% 0.1 p.p.

Textbooks Materials -1.2% -1.3% -0.1 p.p.

Others -2.6% -2.8% -0.2 p.p.

Selling Expenses -9.0% -7.5% 1.5 p.p.

PDA -3.0% -2.2% 0.8 p.p.

Marketing -6.0% -5.3% 0.7 p.p.

G&A Expenses* -12.0% -12.5% -0.5 p.p.

*Cost of Services and G&A expenses excluding depreciation. 14

Page 15: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

15

EBITDA and Net Income

EBITDA

129.4

195.9 24.0%

27.1%

1Q14 1Q15

EBITDA EBITDA Margin

(In R$ million)

1EBITDA in accordance with the CVM instruction 527, does not consider Operating Financial Result

+51.4%

Net Income (In R$ million)

125.8

130.6

23.4%

18.1%

1Q14 1Q15

+3,8%

Page 16: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

16

Net Income

1EBITDA in accordance with the CVM instruction 527, does not consider Operating Financial Result

125.8 130.6

66.5 38.0

19.6 1.1 3.0

Net Income 1Q14 EBITDA Financial Result Depreciation Social Contribution Income Tax Net Income 1Q15

Net Income Positive Variation Negative Variation

Page 17: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

Net Average Days Receivables

Accounts Receivables (R$ MM) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15

Gross Accounts Receivables 528.4 520.9 641.5 573.2 833.9

FIES 147.2 128.6 222.2 149.7 325.9

Tuition Monthly Fees 305.3 329.0 333.5 354.0 412.5

Agreement Receivables 43.0 35.0 47.4 38.7 51.6

Others 31.6 24.2 31.7 24.0 45.4

Provision for Doubtful Accounts (92.0) (93.1) (101.7) (115.0) (111.7)

Net Accounts Receivables 435.2 423.7 533.0 451.4 723.6

Net Revenues (Last 12 months) 1,856.0 2,001.5 2,315.5 2,518.5 2,724.8

Days Receivables 84 76 83 65 96

Net Revenue Ex. FIES (Last 12 months) 1,193.4 1,216.4 1,410.5 1,472.7 1,601.0

Days Receivables Ex. FIES and FIES Revenue 87 87 79 74 89

17

Page 18: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

FIES

FIES Accounts Receivable (R$ MM) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15

Opening Balance 78.9 147.2 128.6 222.2 149.7

(+) FIES Net Revenue 225.7 289.6 296.3 321.8 311.7

(-) Transfer 146.5 293.8 190.6 378.3 121.1

(-) FIES Deduction/Provision 10.8 14.5 14.8 16.0 16.6

(+) Acquisitions - - 2.6 - 1.2

Ending Balance 147.2 128.6 222.2 149.7 325.9

FIES Carry-Forward Credits (R$ MM) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15

Opening Balance 44.4 63.6 82.4 50.0 81.7

(+) Transfer 146.5 293.8 190.6 378.3 121.1

(-) Tax payment 40.5 70.8 70.2 78.9 24.3

(-) Repurchase auctions 86.8 204.3 152.8 265.9 91.3

(+) Acquisitions - - - -1.8 -

Ending Balance 63.6 82.4 50.0 81.7 87.2

FIES Average Days Receivables 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15

FIES Days Receivables 115 97 108 80 132 18

Page 19: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

19

Cash Flow

Cash Flow Statement (R$ million) 1Q14 1Q15

Profit before income taxes and social contribution 135.3 144.2

Adjustments to reconcile profit to net cash generated: 26.1 82.0

Result after reconciliation to net cash generated 161.3 226.3

Changes in assets and liabilities: (102.9) (257.9)

Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities: 58.4 (31.7)

CAPEX (Ex-Acquisitions) (36.4) (60.8)

Operational Cash Flow: 22.0 (92.5)

Other investing activities: (1.5) 0.3

Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities 20.5 (92.2)

Cash flows from financing activities: (1.6) 98.1

Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities 18.9 6.0

Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the period 739.2 715.1

Increase in cash and cash equivalents 18.9 6.0

Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 758.1 721.1

Page 20: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

0.5

1.2

2014.1 2015.1

UniSEB Results

20

Distance Learning Intake

The inclusion of all the accredited UniSEB centers in

Estácio‟s enrollment portal (as well as via UniSEB‟s own

portal)Offer greater variety courses;

The offer of an online modality (sought after by more

than 70%);

Campaigns associating Estácio‟s brand with UniSEB‟s;

The positive impact of TV media and our business

model on centers close to Estácio‟s units.

On-Campus Intake

First intake handled by Estácio with the full use of our

enrollment-related corporate structure and intelligence

framework (relationship tools and prospect contact

procedures)

Investments in local relationships (corporate and school

channels)

TV campaign

Comprehensive sensitivity analysis using the 2H14

intake data (still in the legacy systems) in comparison to

local competitors, in order to prepare ourselves for the

2015.1 intake process.

On-Campus Intake („000)

+140.0%

UniSEB Student Base („000)

1Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Change

On-campus Undergraduate 2.1 2.2 2.9 38.1%

DL Undergraduate 27.2 27.3 32.4 19.0%

Graduate 7.1 6.8 6.8 -4.2%

FGV Graduate 1.8 1.9 1.6 -9.6%

Extension 1.1 0.8 0.2 -81.8%

Pronatec - 0.7 0.7 -

Total UniSEB Student Base 39.3 39.7 44.6 13.5%

Page 21: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

FIES

21

FIES Student Base („000)

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Change

On-campus undergraduate students 302.8 281.8 315.7 290.2 359.3 18.6%

FIES Student Base 102.1 110.4 121.2 122.7 132.6 29.9%

% of FIES Students 33.7% 39.2% 38.4% 42.3% 36.9% 3.2 p.p.

New FIES Contracts (freshmen and seniors) („000)

1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14

Total Intake 85.3 63.8 105.7 67.5

Freshmen with FIES (until the end of the intake process) 10.3 12.1 26.1 14.9

% via FIES 12.1% 19.0% 24.7% 22.1%

Freshmen with FIES (until the end of the semester) 20.4 15.4 34.9 18.9

% via FIES 23.9% 24.1% 33.0% 28.0%

Seniors students with FIES (new contracts) 5.5 6.2 5.3 3.9

New FIES contracts in the semester 25.9 21.6 40.2 22.8

New FIES Contracts (freshmen and seniors)

until April, 2015 („000)

1H15

Total Intake 110.9

Freshmen with FIES (until the end of the intake process) 12.1

% via FIES 10.9%

Freshmen with FIES (until April) 18.4

% via FIES 16.6%

Seniors students with FIES (new contracts until April) 1.9

New FIES contracts in April 20.3

Page 22: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

2015 Strategy

Maintaining our EBITDA target for 2015

Culture change regarding evasion

Cash is King

20 Miles at a time

Risk Management

Eyes opened for opportunities

22

Page 23: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

2015 – The Brand Year

23

Page 24: Estácio: 1Q15 Conference Call Presentation

IR Contacts

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements concerning the industry’s prospects and Estácio Participações’ estimated financial and operating results; these are ere projections and. as such. are based solely on the Company management’s expectations regarding the future of the business and its continuous access to capital to finance Estácio Participações’ business plan. These considerations depend substantially on changes in market conditions. government rules. competitive pressures and the performance of the sector and the Brazilian economy as well as other factors and are. therefore. subject to changes without previous notice. We are a holding company. and our only assets are our interests in SESES. STB. SESPA. SESCE. SESPE. SESAL. SESSE. SESAP. UNEC. SESSA and IREP. and we currently hold 99.9% of the capital stock of each of these subsidiaries. Considering that the Company was incorporated on March 31 2007. the information presented herein is for comparison purposes only. on a proforma unaudited basis. relative to the first three months of 2007. as if the Company had been organized on January 1 2007. Additionally. information was presented on an adjusted basis. in order to reflect the payment of taxes on SESES. our largest subsidiary. which from February 2007. after becoming a for-profit company. is subject to the applicable taxation rules applied to the remaining subsidiaries. except for the exemptions arising out of the PROUNI – University for All Program (“PROUNI”). Information presented for comparison purposes should not be considered as a basis for calculation of dividends. taxes or for any other corporate purposes.

Investor Relations:

Flávia de Oliveira

Arthur Assumpção

Fernanda Assis

Email: [email protected]

Phone: +55 (21) 3311-9789

Fax: +55 (21) 3311-9722

Address: Av. Embaixador Abelardo Bueno. 199 – Office Park – 6th floor

ZIP Code: 22.775-040 – Barra da Tijuca – Rio de Janeiro – RJ – Brazil

Website: www.estacioparticipacoes.com/ir