1q15 newsletter

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Investment Advisors: Stephen Share [email protected] Greg Schroeder [email protected] First Quarter 2015 DEAR CLIENTS & FRIENDS; Despite a turbulent start to the year, both the U.S. and International stock markets ended the first quarter in positive territory. The U.S. stock market rose 2% in the quarter, representing the eleventh consecutive quarterly gain, while International equites rebounded from a weak second half of 2014, rising 4%. The U.S. fixed income market also posted positive results in the quarter with the Barclays aggregate bond index rising 1%. Bonds continue to benefit from falling U.S. treasury rates as the 10-year declined from 2.17% at the beginning of the quarter to 1.93% at the end. Commodities were a drag on portfolio performance with the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity index falling 7% in the first quarter. This was driven primarily by an 11% plunge in crude oil (now down 56% from its peak last June) coupled with 5% declines in both corn and soybeans. Gold prices remained relatively unchanged in the quarter while Silver was up 6%. The first quarter was a busy one for us at Wisco. We hosted a number of year-end client meetings over the last few months to discuss 2014 performance and to review objectives for 2015. Please feel free to contact us anytime if you would like to discuss your investment strategy, targeted risk level, or performance report, or if you would like us to work on a personalized financial plan for you. Also, don’t forget that the last day to make your 2014 IRA contribution is right around the corner (tax day). As a reminder, we are always appreciative of opportunities to talk to your organizations and companies about investment-related topics. This last quarter, we were fortunate to have had the opportunity to present to PLATO at UW-Madison Continuing Studies about the investment industry and our approach at Wisco. Also as spring approaches, we are excited to again be sponsoring the Logan’s Heart & Smiles Golf Outing and the 2015 Festa Italia. At Wisco, we believe our approach of designing well-diversified, low-cost investment portfolios is the best way to produce favorable results over time. We would like to thank you for providing us with the opportunity to work with you as your investment adviser. We appreciate your business! Sincerely, The Wisco Team

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Wisco 1Q 2015 Newsletter

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Page 1: 1Q15 Newsletter

Investment Advisors: Stephen Share [email protected] Greg Schroeder [email protected]

First Quarter 2015

DEAR CLIENTS & FRIENDS;

Despite a turbulent start to the year, both the U.S. and International stock markets ended the first quarter in positive territory. The U.S. stock market rose 2% in the quarter, representing the eleventh consecutive quarterly gain, while International equites rebounded from a weak second half of 2014, rising 4%.

The U.S. fixed income market also posted positive results in the quarter with the Barclays aggregate bond index rising 1%. Bonds continue to benefit from falling U.S. treasury rates as the 10-year declined from 2.17% at the beginning of the quarter to 1.93% at the end.

Commodities were a drag on portfolio performance with the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity index falling 7% in the first quarter. This was driven primarily by an 11% plunge in crude oil (now down 56% from its peak last June) coupled with 5% declines in both corn and soybeans. Gold prices remained relatively unchanged in the quarter while Silver was up 6%.

The first quarter was a busy one for us at Wisco. We hosted a number of year-end client meetings over the last few months to discuss 2014 performance and to review objectives for 2015. Please feel free to contact us anytime if you would like to discuss your investment strategy, targeted risk level, or performance report, or if you would like us to work on a personalized financial plan for you. Also, don’t forget that the last day to make your 2014 IRA contribution is right around the corner (tax day).

As a reminder, we are always appreciative of opportunities to talk to your organizations and companies about investment-related topics. This last quarter, we were fortunate to have had the opportunity to present to PLATO at UW-Madison Continuing Studies about the investment industry and our approach at Wisco. Also as spring approaches, we are excited to again be sponsoring the Logan’s Heart & Smiles Golf Outing and the 2015 Festa Italia.

At Wisco, we believe our approach of designing well-diversified, low-cost investment portfolios is the best way to produce favorable results over time. We would like to thank you for providing us with the opportunity to work with you as your investment adviser. We appreciate your business!

Sincerely,

The Wisco Team

Page 2: 1Q15 Newsletter

The domestic equity market had another positive quarter returning 2% in 1Q15. In the quarter, mid cap (6%) and small cap (5%) posted stronger performance than large caps (up 1.5%). The S&P 500, closed the quarter at 2068 off the all-time high of 2117 reached March 2. S&P 500 3Q14 earnings grew 6% y/y, as stronger consumer performance more than offset headwinds from a stronger dollar and falling Energy company earnings. Going forward, we expect mid-single

digit earnings growth in 2015. We feel economic activity could pick up as consumers start to see more discretionary dollars because of lower gas prices and an improving job market. Two factors that could slow earnings growth are a strong dollar and tighter monetary policy. The Federal Reserve could start increasing rates as early as June, which could be a catalyst to further strengthening of the dollar against other major currencies as most other economies have easier monetary policies than the U.S.

We continue to have a positive outlook for the domestic market and have exposure to the U.S. equity market in all our model portfolios. On a valuation basis, the S&P 500 is trading at a P/E of 16.8x 2015 consensus operating earnings which is higher than average. That said, we think this higher valuation is justified based on our expectation for accelerating GDP growth in 2015. We expect a positive return for the domestic stock market in 2015 albeit the returns may not be as strong as they have been the past three years.

First Quarter 2015 Market Review

Wisco Investment ManagementWisco model portfolios are constructed using five different asset classes; Domestic Equity, International Equity, Domestic Fixed Income, Alternative Investments and Money Market. Our current model portfolio asset class allocations are as follows:

First Quarter 2015

WISCO MODEL PORTFOLIOS Conservative Balanced Balanced Growth Growth Aggressive

Domestic Equity 33% 47% 53% 60% 65%International Equity 5% 5% 13% 22% 23%Domestic Fixed Income 42% 31% 17% 0% 0%Alternative Investments 10% 10% 12% 14% 10%Money Market 10% 7% 5% 4% 2%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Target Volatility* 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

*Target Volatility is our estimate for the annual standard deviation of portfolio returns. Source: Wisco Investment Management LLC

DOMESTIC EQUITY35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% 1Q15

4Q14

3Q14

2Q14

1Q14

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

Quarterly Returns

Source: Dow Jones U.S. Broad Stock Market Index and Wisco.

13%

33%

17%

1%

16%

5%2%

5%

0%2%

Page 3: 1Q15 Newsletter

International equity markets recovered in 1Q15 posting a 4% return. In Europe, the STOXX 50 increased 5% this quarter as a quantitative easing program appears to have helped equities. Most major European markets performed well with Denmark (up 13%), Hungary (up 11%) and Germany (up 8%) among the strongest performers. These gains were partially offset by another big decline in Greece’s Athex Composite (down 16%) as the country continues to struggle with the EU’s austerity demands. In Asia, most major markets posted a strong return with Japan’s Nikkei 225 increasing 11% in the quarter. The FTSE Emerging Market Index was also up 2% in 1Q15. The Shanghai composite was up 16% in 1Q15 and Russia’s RTSI index (up 11%) recovered some lost ground. However, this strength was partially offset by another poor quarter in Brazil’s IBOVESPA which declined 15%.

While one quarter is not a trend, we are encouraged that Draghi’s monetary easing resulted in a modest acceleration in Europe’s GDP. Therefore, we continue to hold international equities in all our model portfolios and prefer developed markets over emerging markets.

The Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 1% in the 1Q15, as the 10-year treasury yield started the quarter at 2.17% and ended 1Q15 at 1.93%. The Federal Reserve seems unlikely to increase rates before June. Plus, despite historically low yields, monetary easing in Europe along with a dramatic fall in commodity prices resulted in a strong dollar, pushing rates even lower. Barclays U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Index (TIPS) was also up 1% in 1Q15, while annual inflation is flat because of low oil prices, inflation expectations per the Cleveland Fed increased to 1.7% annually in March. Investment grade corporate bonds and high yield corporate bonds both returned 2% in 1Q15 as investors desperate for yield took more risk.

Wisco continues to expect low yet positive Fixed Income returns. While interest rates are at historically low levels, we feel this trend could continue for a number of reasons. First, the global economy is relatively soft. In addition, low oil prices could keep a lid on inflation. Finally, a strong dollar may attract foreign investors to the domestic bond market. Therefore, we continue to have fixed income positions in our more conservative models.

DOMESTIC FIXED INCOMEINTERNATIONAL EQUITY20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20% 1Q15

4Q14

3Q14

2Q14

1Q14

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

Quarterly Returns

-3%

11%

17%14%

1%4%5%

-14%

-3%

Source: MSCI ACWI ex USA and Wisco

-5%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4% 1Q15

4Q14

3Q14

2Q14

1Q14

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

Source: Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index and Wisco.

2%

Quarterly Returns

6%7%

8%

3%

-2%

0%

2% 2%1%

Page 4: 1Q15 Newsletter

Wisco Investment Management LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities product, service, or investment strategy. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation discussed herein.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index declined 7% in the quarter. In agriculture, both Corn prices and Soybean prices declined 5%1, as high stockpiles and a strong dollar drove prices lower. Gold prices were flat2 in the quarter, while silver increased 6%3 for the quarter. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) had another strong quarter up 5%4. Crude oil was again the main story in Alternative Investments. WTI prices fell another 11%5 and now are down 56%5 from their peak price in June. While the number of oil rigs in use is declining and major oil companies are cutting capital expenditures, these changes have not yet had a significant impact on production. Furthermore, domestic oil supplies continue to be at very high levels, which could keep the price low until these supplies are worked down. Longer term, we think global oil production will self-correct and prices will move higher.

Wisco believes Alternative Investments are an important part of a well-diversified portfolio. In addition, we feel the dramatic decline in oil prices may present investors with a longer term opportunity. With this in mind, we hold an Energy Master Limited Partnership (down 4%6 in the quarter) in all our models and may opportunistically make additional oil related investments in the second half of 2015.

MONEY MARKET

Wisco keeps a modest money market allocation in all of our model portfolios. The current yield of the Schwab Money Market is 0.01%. Low Federal Funds rates have held down short-term yields. While an increase in the Fed Funds rate may increase this yield later in the year, we think short-term interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time.

1 Return calculation based on the near future contract as quoted in the Wall Street Journal. 2 Return calculation uses ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (SGOL) as a proxy for gold.3 Return calculation uses iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) as a proxy for silver.4 Return calculation uses Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH) as a proxy for Real Estate Investment Trusts.5 Return calculation uses Cushing, OK WTI spot price FOB as a proxy for oil.6 Return calculation uses Alerian MLP (AMLP) as a proxy for Energy Master Limited Partnerships.

402 Gammon Place, Suite 380 • Madison, WI 53719 • Office 608.442.5507 • Fax 608.237.2206